why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 35 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #681
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:03am Dec 30, 2013 9:03am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Take that shit elsewhere, Nell. Time and place. This is neither.

Is it interfering with your generally just rubbishing every idea anyone ever has and never ever saying anything positive/constructive ?, lets call it Trolling ??


Atleast I think we both agree Fib's and Gann's are complete rubbish!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #682
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:13am Dec 30, 2013 9:13am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yo dude, surviving just kinda maybe!! Tis going okay, isn't technically scalping though, as not a 3 pip merchant, made a little on 2 trades, shoulda stuck around and kept trading but BORED and it's a Monday so went out doh!! I don't trade August, that's beach time
sorry bud, perhaps I shouldn't of said scalping, weird thing is I was called a scalper a couple of years back and I was hitting hundreds of pips per day, oh well. be good and keep the interesting chat going
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #683
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:16am Dec 30, 2013 9:16am
Quoting the redlion
I can see your supply and demand zone trading magix, hanover pointed out support and resistance to mitigate risk.....what is the probability of this approach working in statistical terms? what predictions can be made and tested? what are the implications? nubcacke takes a shit and watches for the swirls....can you truly say that his approach is not valid? and if you can what standard do you use to judge a sound method from an unsound method?
Studying shit swirls has never occurred to me as a sound method for doing anything other than it will show shit swirls.

What would happen if ole nubby started to take on some fibre or had the stomach flu? Methodology right out the window?

Validity, well...as far as goes, if you want to remove all empirical data and focus on the mundane, tea leaves, planetary cycles and shit swirls are definitely angles one could investigate. As for myself, I will let others lay the ground work on them and if something is actually valid, will investigate from there.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #684
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:18am Dec 30, 2013 9:18am
regarding trolls, a friend of a friend was saying some sites employ trollsters to add flavour to threads. Notice how some people can be barred for hardly a thing while others can be jolly well nasty time and again and nothing happens.
so meanwhile I am still interested in this predictability info
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #685
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:19am Dec 30, 2013 9:19am
Quoting billytt
{quote} sorry bud, perhaps I shouldn't of said scalping, weird thing is I was called a scalper a couple of years back and I was hitting hundreds of pips per day, oh well. be good and keep the interesting chat going

You doing that just to annoy Nub's

100's of pips per day, do you want to relive those old memory's doing that with my little account, just to stop you getting bored.



As to the study wise above, you can only do an objective study on mechanical based trading not on subjective trades, not saying if your good and you understand all the economy side you can't do that profitably, but the only way to confirm it works it to do it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #686
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:21am Dec 30, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Studying shit swirls has never occurred to me as a sound method for doing anything other than it will show shit swirls. What would happen if ole nubby started to take on some fibre or had the stomach flu? Methodology right out the window? Validity, well...as far as goes, if you want to remove all empirical data and focus on the mundane, tea leaves, planetary cycles and shit swirls are definitely angles one could investigate. As for myself, I will let others lay the ground work on them and if something is actually valid, will investigate...
that's what I was saying, losing trades = no food = no toilet visit. what if the water pressure is low, what if the shit isn't dead central in the pan = its a biased system= random
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #687
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:24am Dec 30, 2013 9:24am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You doing that just to annoy Nub's 100's of pips per day, do you want to relive those old memory's doing that with my little account, just to stop you getting bored. As to the study wise above, you can only do an objective study on mechanical based trading not on subjective trades, not saying if your good and you understand all the economy side you can't do that profitably, but the only way to confirm it works it to do it.
Turveyd, you should of seen my daughter trade at 8, and she stopped just after she reached 10 lol 20/2 ema cross over, and she could predict. Now sells dolls on ebay. OOPs I said hundreds, take into account that was compounding figures and slightly inaccurate lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #688
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:24am Dec 30, 2013 9:24am
Quoting billytt
regarding trolls, a friend of a friend was saying some sites employ trollsters to add flavour to threads. Notice how some people can be barred for hardly a thing while others can be jolly well nasty time and again and nothing happens. so meanwhile I am still interested in this predictability info

Wouldn't surprise me, dating sites employ people to flirt with men, cause without it there just isn't enough woman around on those sites to keep the men there and paying there monthly subscriptions.

It's normally just swear words that get people banned, TGM calling the main moderator here can't remember his name a C##T for allowing me to post was funny, he only got suspended aswell LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #689
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:26am Dec 30, 2013 9:26am
Quoting billytt
{quote} that's what I was saying, losing trades = no food = no toilet visit. what if the water pressure is low, what if the shit isn't dead central in the pan = its a biased system= random

Does the water actually swirl the opposite way depending on which hemisphere your in, or is that just a myth, see got to consider all these issues.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #690
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:26am Dec 30, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Wouldn't surprise me, dating sites employ people to flirt with men, cause without it there just isn't enough woman around on those sites to keep the men there and paying there monthly subscriptions. It's normally just swear words that get people banned, TGM calling the main moderator here can't remember his name a C##T for allowing me to post was funny, he only got suspended aswell LOL
lol wayhay but you get it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #691
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:29am Dec 30, 2013 9:29am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Turveyd, you should of seen my daughter trade at 8, and she stopped just after she reached 10 lol 20/2 ema cross over, and she could predict. Now sells dolls on ebay. OOPs I said hundreds, take into account that was compounding figures and slightly inaccurate lol
Your daughter can predict price with a cross over system? And you are a successful retired trader now bouncer?
This seems a bit farfetched I'm not sure if you are being comical
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #692
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:45am Dec 30, 2013 9:45am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} Your daughter can predict price with a cross over system? And you are a successful retired trader now bouncer? This seems a bit farfetched I'm not sure if you are being comical
Hi Red, I work sometimes as a bouncer helping my buddy out. I work a lot more being a body guard and to tell you , I would do it for free if it were a red carpet job. I did say my daughter can predict,,,,ok fair enough I am a guy who is proud of his daughter just like every other father is about their own. she would look at a chart normally e/u if I remember right and say (when a trade was viable) look rainbow and then ask to trade it. The rainbow she saw is not the rainbows which some traders use, she was doing it at 8 years old . she hit constantly 10 to 20 pips and one day by pure accident got a 200 pip move solely because she forgot to close the trade over the weekend.
As for work ,I is retired but I do try and develop trading methods for a trader friend ( hobby). be good and keep the predicting talk going it is interesting if kept simple, billy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #693
  • Dec 30, 2013 9:56am Dec 30, 2013 9:56am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} If we dont trade every candle on M1, then technically the M1 gives a clearer view than any other timeframe. So a period 10 SMA is the same on M1 as a period 2 sma on M5, but this may not be true for all indicators.Timeframe based stick merging merges all doji-like candles too too crudely. While this is great for pattern traders on high timeframe, for those guys who want to predict the market with neural networks or other self learning alhorithms, must use the original and raw data. Tick data is better, but if not then M1 is good too. Also...
Im still not sure I'm understanding what your trying to accomplish........But if I think I may get it, its possible you may find that this "tick" indicator, might help you with "timing". its a little "noisy" for my taste, but your viewing 1min data. Give the indicator a second to gather tics. If nothing else its fun to watch. It only works when the market is open
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 tick_on_chart histo.mq4   2 KB | 547 downloads
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #694
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:00am Dec 30, 2013 10:00am
Quoting nubcake
It's all just speculation, and without more data that's all it can ever be... and that's the problem. Might as well slap some fibs and ganns on there.

Actually, I will agree with your and not agree in these 2 simple statements.

There seems to be a lot more quoting and guessing based on other studies and a lot less on the charts...

If the idea of the thread comes from the title, why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption, why are we spending more time studying what was instead of what is or what will be?

Taking a chart from now and showing an idea of where it will go based on probabilities and direction...makes sense.

Though I have never actually seen any practical application for GANN, I still rip the fibos for another outlook...using either of these is better than posting link to some random study on random price. Even if you only get marginal results, it shows a little more by way of a market forecast and outcome, than does to reasons this cannot and should not work.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #695
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:05am Dec 30, 2013 10:05am
Im 10 pages behind.so excuse that.

But im certain confusion rules here.

Ill be short.this market for the best part is random.but only because of the way its perceived. There are constants and variables. The variables converge to a constant.the constant allows to calculate from.as one zooms in mid term.another set of variables evolve these are random to us.unknown.but they will converge to the constant.short term multiple variances are present. These are random to us but not to the mid term and longterm constants.u can reduce this on and on.prodicing constants and incomming unkown variables.

I know that these all converge at certain points in time.which is a variable.so this ranndom market is random but very structured.some have found eays to take advantage of this and some havnt.or I should say most have not.

Nobodies actuallly wrong.although as ive said some can see clearer.
  • #696
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:08am Dec 30, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually, I will agree with your and not agree in these 2 simple statements. There seems to be a lot more quoting and guessing based on other studies and a lot less on the charts... If the idea of the thread comes from the title, why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption, why are we spending more time studying what was instead of what is or what will be? Taking a chart from now and showing an idea of where it will go based on probabilities and direction...makes sense. Though I have never actually seen any practical application...

So forward testing live charts, drop your live chart / reasons to trade onto here, then end of trade we'll study the results then with enough we can compile mathematical probability of certain setups ?? and see if there valid or not!

Anyone can draw lines onto a historical chart after all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #697
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:34am Dec 30, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So forward testing live charts, drop your live chart / reasons to trade onto here, then end of trade we'll study the results then with enough we can compile mathematical probability of certain setups ?? and see if there valid or not! Anyone can draw lines onto a historical chart after all.
If we are going to predict the future of a pair is it for only one pair and as an example what time scale- 15 min,daily,monthly.
if I recall the e/u (old favourite) from approx year 2000 is in uptrend and since approx 2010 it has dropped a bit (random). I think a more realistic approach would be on the daily time frame. I also think and I posted earlier it would be good to forecast data off each major pair against each other, Doing this I think we would have a better outcome, if it is solved it would be worth a lot of money , forget trading just sell the idea
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #698
  • Dec 30, 2013 10:38am Dec 30, 2013 10:38am
Quoting Turveyd
Anyone can draw lines onto a historical chart after all.
Really?

Can you?

And I don't just mean, drawing lines, but actual consistent pattern recognition based on simple supply and demand...

Take some time Turv. Throw out that steaming pile of shit you call a chart, clean it up a little and listen to what the market says. Then, build your own data base and statistical analysis...I don't need a study to tell me how something works, simple observation is enough.

I don't know dick about combustion engines nor transmissions and don't question this when I need to go some place. I Just hops into my truck and go.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #699
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:15am Dec 30, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Really? Can you? And I don't just mean, drawing lines, but actual consistent pattern recognition based on simple supply and demand... Take some time Turv. Throw out that steaming pile of shit you call a chart, clean it up a little and listen to what the market says. Then, build your own data base and statistical analysis...I don't need a study to tell me how something works, simple observation is enough. I don't know dick about combustion engines nor transmissions and don't question this when I need to go some place. I Just hops into my...
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magix, forget the long past data on chart , I have high lighted a top and bottom (easy part) one or both will def be hit. also your chart,,,,, look at all the inside bars and look what happened after, this is predictability but not 100%, I am only saying not trying to be a smart arse, good trading
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #700
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:16am Dec 30, 2013 11:16am
Same look from an M1 perspective.

Random?

When support is broken, it gets tested as?
When resistance is broken, it gets tested as?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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