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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,801
  • Oct 17, 2013 6:20am Oct 17, 2013 6:20am
Of Course! And we are not perfect traders so what with mistakes and psychological flaws we won't take all that is on the table. This is understood. But when such days are thrown up this can only help us achieve positive account growth.
  • #3,802
  • Edited 1:32pm Oct 17, 2013 1:20pm | Edited 1:32pm
Today has been a day when counter-trending the lines would reduce your balance considerably. I got stopped out on first trade and gained the loss back with my second trade. I saw another line broken to the long side so then put my limit order in for a long ( me and thousands of others I suppose) I missed the trade by 2 pips before price took off to the long side on the GU - the market then went on for another 100 pips. Coulda/shoulda/woulda ... tomorrow is another day but being as it's a Friday tomorrow, and after the large moves in the dollar pairs today, then there will probably be consolidation - but I will trade what I see.

The yearly high is just a little way above where the EU stands now. If the weekly lows and highs are more respected than the daily equivalents then I suppose year-to-date highs/lows carry even more weight.

Good trading everyone.
  • #3,803
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:52pm Oct 17, 2013 3:52pm
I trade with Dukascopy. Won't be doing trade explorer or similar. See what happened today - missed opportunities really. I live in CET timezone so have the same issues as others about getting up early and suitably refreshed.

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5961/b4nv.png
  • #3,804
  • Oct 17, 2013 4:07pm Oct 17, 2013 4:07pm
Click on image to enlarge

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/5971/j97n.png
  • #3,805
  • Oct 18, 2013 5:19am Oct 18, 2013 5:19am
Not a first time I notice GMT provides better trading week..anyone did test with bigger base then few weeks and would like to share ? Or I might as well know what I gonna do this weekend..
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  • #3,806
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:16am Oct 18, 2013 7:16am
It seems GMT proved better retest trades,and I put more in these then I do in first hit trades,I'm more likely to skip first hit trades then retest of a level. But I dont have trade numbers or test to back it up, so will just see what I can find comparing it.
  • #3,807
  • Oct 19, 2013 2:45pm Oct 19, 2013 2:45pm
@Uberteh .. I think S.P would say that the levels vary - doesn't matter which one you use as they change. I just did a few brief checks back on the EU last March and it seems that the GMT open was being respected more. Hope you are feeling inclined to summarize your findings - Steve
  • #3,808
  • Oct 19, 2013 11:20pm Oct 19, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting stevejm
@Uberteh .. I think S.P would say that the levels vary - doesn't matter which one you use as they change. I just did a few brief checks back on the EU last March and it seems that the GMT open was being respected more. Hope you are feeling inclined to summarize your findings - Steve
The levels change depending on the current fundamental situation.

If London opens and you get GBP and EUR data that changes the fundamental landscape then price arriving back at that London open will be "suspect" provided the other side of your currency has not offset that change.

If US session opens and you get US data that impacts on the fundamental landscape then US related prices arriving back at the US open will be suspect unless the reason is justified by a reverse change in the fundamental landscape or the other side of the currency pair offsetting the USD change.

In context of the above; If you're trading GBP/USD or EUR/USD, using the London open and get data in both sessions then it's a what matters most situation. You can bypass this headache by trading cross pairs and zeroing in on just one currency and change factor.

This method works because it takes advantage of that point in time before things "change" and uses it as a non subjective psychological reference point. It won't work when you use the point in time and try and trade against some "change".
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,809
  • Oct 20, 2013 12:23am Oct 20, 2013 12:23am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} The levels change depending on the current fundamental situation. If London opens and you get GBP and EUR data that changes the fundamental landscape then price arriving back at that London open will be "suspect" provided the other side of your currency has not offset that change..
This sounds interesting but sounds like it could be the start of another thread! Would you care to illustrate with some charts related to news events ... perhaps illustrating what happens when news events change perceptions.
  • #3,810
  • Oct 20, 2013 1:58am Oct 20, 2013 1:58am
XXXX
Time hides Nothing
  • #3,811
  • Dec 29, 2013 1:35pm Dec 29, 2013 1:35pm
Why do the good threads always have to die an awful death
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,812
  • Dec 29, 2013 2:25pm Dec 29, 2013 2:25pm
Sad indeed. So guys how many of u still trading stuff presented here ? I have to admit I had too cut daily hi lows, I was simply taking too many bad trades and driving up and down around break even after some time, start was very good..but later something went wrong. On other hand bigger time frames levels made a lot of killing trades and put my longer term trading to next level.
  • #3,813
  • Dec 29, 2013 2:34pm Dec 29, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting uberteh
Sad indeed. So guys how many of u still trading stuff presented here ? I have to admit I had too cut daily hi lows, I was simply taking too many bad trades and driving up and down around break even after some time, start was very good..but later something went wrong. On other hand bigger time frames levels made a lot of killing trades and put my longer term trading to next level.
turning points at key prices is great, but you gotta let that win rate drop and let them run... its all in the RR.

Run optimizing tests on simple price action strats and the profits max out at around 25/1 RR.... anything around 2/1 just wont cut it...

It's my opinion only, but the data backs it up
tradewith60
  • #3,814
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:08am Dec 30, 2013 12:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} turning points at key prices is great, but you gotta let that win rate drop and let them run... its all in the RR. Run optimizing tests on simple price action strats and the profits max out at around 25/1 RR.... anything around 2/1 just wont cut it... It's my opinion only, but the data backs it up
This example has R/R of 2.5:1 and would you say it "won't cut it" unless the R/R is 25/1?

By the way, what happened to Seneca Pilot's Myfxbook from Post#1?
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  • #3,815
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:12am Dec 30, 2013 2:12am
Quoting anyone
{quote} This example has R/R of 2.5:1 and would you say it "won't cut it" unless the R/R is 25/1? By the way, what happened to Seneca Pilot's Myfxbook from Post#1? {image} {image}
A couple of interesting points...

1.win rate is around 50%, being saying this in the skype room for some time, entries don't matter, its always a 50/50 game, most traders have a win rate around 50%, its easy to maintain and doesn't need to be higher. Obviously with regards RR you can choose to take trades in good places.....

2. 2.5/1 looks great but it suffers too much during poor performance periods, and you will get them. Then small gains are swallowed up very quickly and bad discipline is a real danger. You need big profits to insure continued discipline in other words.
Look at this simple price action systems test results with differing RR, look at the change to profits as you move out on the curve..

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nW2eMRU5Wx...600-h/data.jpg
tradewith60
  • #3,816
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:27am Dec 30, 2013 2:27am
Quoting anyone
{quote} That 2.5/1 R/R is average statistics over a period of time, which means he will have some small profits and some big profits. Average does not mean EVERY trade is like 2.5/1, it depends on what market gives.
still not high enough,
tradewith60
  • #3,817
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:32am Dec 30, 2013 2:32am
I am not saying smaller RR wont work ever, for anyone, but I like data, and the bigger the test period the better...

But, can we agree that the majority look for smaller RR and the majority lose.... there has to be a few recurring issues with the way most people are trading.
Try finding some threads with 10/1 or 20/1 RR... you wont find many, why is that?
tradewith60
  • #3,818
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:41am Dec 30, 2013 3:41am
Quoting anyone
{quote} Like you said, how many people still trade the stuff presented here? Let's keep to the topic of daily (and weekly) high/low/open/close lines as presented by thread starter. Is it still working? Is it no longer working?
I totally forgot about this thread even though I still keep in contact with some of the guys who visited here.
This thread by SP had the potential to be extremely good (profitable). It is based on a very old method with his own method of trading it. I traded very similar to this method, I admit I didn't attempt to trade off a retrace it isn't my style.
I think you will find that like many other threads some people want to get the holy grail straight away, make zillions of pips and be told how to trade without putting in the effort,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #3,819
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:00am Dec 30, 2013 6:00am
Quoting anyone
{quote} It's a much repeated forum cliche to come down on people to point out that "newbies" are "looking for holy grail", "without putting in effort". I don't disagree with your comments, but like what 60minuteman is doing on every thread not his own, it appears to talk down on people who asked perfectly valid (and innocent) questions. Maybe people just want to discuss or find out from followers whether the method or system works at all, just that and nothing more. If it doesn't work, it saves time and that's not a bad thing.
I don't talk down to anyone, just stating facts, people don't like facts because they often show serious flaws in what they are saying or doing.

The reason this thread died was because the OP lost lots of money and everyone witnessed it, that doesn't mean trading SR is flawed, it was just not very well executed.

A winning trader would do his own study to find out if it works or not, its not hard, just takes some effort
tradewith60
  • #3,820
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:21am Dec 30, 2013 6:21am
exactly. people spend enough time trying to find something that works. a lotof these guys, once they know what there doing or think they know what they are doing. They become very arrogant and dismissive. Lots of times they wont answer a question straight forward because they don't have an answer to give you. They don't know. The one that do, they speak in code as to keep you confused and in the dark.
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