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AUD/USD

  • #71,121
  • Dec 26, 2013 1:26am Dec 26, 2013 1:26am
aaaaand it goes down again....
  • #71,122
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:52am Dec 26, 2013 9:52am
This pair looks extremely weak despite Eur and Gbp enjoying its post Christmas rally. Look at how Gbp fly.
After breaking below .8907 support turn resistance line earlier today , Aud should be continuing its downward move to break lower low soon.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,123
  • Dec 27, 2013 4:22am Dec 27, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Ssm
This pair looks extremely weak despite Eur and Gbp enjoying its post Christmas rally. Look at how Gbp fly. After breaking below .8907 support turn resistance line earlier today , Aud should be continuing its downward move to break lower low soon.
Look at how Eur and Gbp is flying, but yet Aud remains subdued and weak.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,124
  • Dec 27, 2013 10:26am Dec 27, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Look at how Eur and Gbp is flying, but yet Aud remains subdued and weak.
if you really want to long the Aussie, Long Aus/Jpy. In terms of relative strength, the Yen is clearly the weakest currency. The Yen will continue to depreciate into next year as the BOJ looks to further increase their monetary easing in pace to achieve their inflation target.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #71,125
  • Dec 28, 2013 6:09pm Dec 28, 2013 6:09pm
one thing I have learned is that:

Listen to the central bankers wanting their currencies lower but not necessarily take to heart central bankers trying to talk their currencies up.

i.e. (Aussie, Yen) whom have which aggressively talked their currencies lower.

NZD recently looking to actually increase their rates, but yet performance is still correlated Aussie.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #71,126
  • Dec 28, 2013 6:13pm Dec 28, 2013 6:13pm
aud target is 0.8677 - monthly
then it goes up i think
xau target is 1163 - daily - then reverse
eur target is 0.93 quarterly
best choice for long term trades is to long xau, short eur and short pounds, starting at 1.6650 - target is 1.4450
  • #71,127
  • Dec 28, 2013 6:31pm Dec 28, 2013 6:31pm
audusd still short?
  • #71,128
  • Dec 28, 2013 6:32pm Dec 28, 2013 6:32pm
for sure
stops 0.9000
also, look at audnzd cross - it's pretty look for long for long term
  • #71,129
  • Dec 28, 2013 6:34pm Dec 28, 2013 6:34pm
Looks like we are down...

If AUD breaks 88c I will be looking to short to 85 perhaps even 80..

H4
http://i.imgur.com/hViSE1a.jpg


weekly
http://i.imgur.com/iZgD2b6.jpg
  • #71,130
  • Dec 28, 2013 7:04pm Dec 28, 2013 7:04pm
The fact that Aud did not participated in the recent rally as compared to other major currencies shows that Aud is still weak. When the other currencies pair retraces from their highs, Aud followed suit but without the rally. Means there is hardly any bulls strength in there. Just my observation.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,131
  • Dec 28, 2013 7:15pm Dec 28, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting Ssm
The fact that Aud did not participated in the recent rally as compared to other major currencies shows that Aud is still weak. When the other currencies pair retraces from their highs, Aud followed suit but without the rally. Means there is hardly any bulls strength in there. Just my observation.
I am uncomfortable with any sign of bull and I suspect that any slight rally would be immediate short opportunity for the bears.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,132
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:59am Dec 29, 2013 10:59am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} I am uncomfortable with any sign of bull and I suspect that any slight rally would be immediate short opportunity for the bears.
With major markets around the world rallying, traditionally the Aussie/Nzd will rally along with it since they are the highest yielding major currencies, in fact that they have gone down shows major weakness and being long the high yielders will be painful.

Anyways, targeting @ .8400 level to the downside and if it has a bounce, it most likely tops out @ .905.

Happy New Year.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #71,133
  • Dec 29, 2013 11:00am Dec 29, 2013 11:00am
Quoting trexy123
audusd still short?
don't see any reason to long it.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #71,134
  • Dec 29, 2013 5:33pm Dec 29, 2013 5:33pm
Flipped AUD long here 88.5.

Risking only 35 pips.

I was originally short from 89.3. Using a bit of profits to play a potential bounce here.

GL
  • #71,135
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:37pm Dec 29, 2013 6:37pm
Decent AUDUSD Options volume so far.

Large American Hedge fund trading that AUDUSD doesn't drop below 0.88 by Thursday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD DTCC.png Size: 20 KB
  • #71,136
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:42pm Dec 29, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Decent AUDUSD Options volume so far. Large American Hedge fund trading that AUDUSD doesn't drop below 0.88 by Thursday. {image}
Hope you're right

  • #71,137
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:43pm Dec 29, 2013 6:43pm
hi Jeremy,
Forgive my ignorance im trading in my second month, but your saying the hedge fund thinks AUDUSD stays above 0.88?
  • #71,138
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:45pm Dec 29, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting Orientxpress
{quote} Hope you're right
its not me, it a hedge fund trading with a US counterparty.
  • #71,139
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:42am Dec 30, 2013 3:42am
Hey guys, My input of my view of the aussie usd which I wrote on my blog.

Please visit my profile if you want to check it out .
Cheers
--Below is a copy ---

AUDUSD Daily , Weekly Outlook for 30th December, 2013 (MONDAY)
Weekly Chart

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-F2Vvznoqrg...2-30_18-08.jpg
AUDUSD Weekly - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg

  1. Trend is Bearish
  2. Stochastics is oversold but flat
  3. RSI pointing slightly down and above 30
  4. At a important level of support


Looking at the weekly, it seems oversold, however further downside is more appealing.


Daily Chart
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8bO1ehoa_1...2-30_18-08.jpg
AUDUSD Daily - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg

  1. Trend is down
  2. Stochastic is pointing down
  3. RSI is around 30


Base on the Daily chart, I cannot trade it at these levels, Indicators are pointing lower , as the upside is limited as we previously tested last week. We will wait for the market to tell us what to do.


Hourly Chart

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lOGEsV2NXG...2-30_18-08.jpg
AUDUSD H1 - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg

  1. Trend is Down
  2. Stochastic pointing up
  3. BAT pattern , however upside limited


By the time i wrote this, I am too late to join the bat pattern play. On the upside resistance come at the 0.88720 and 0.8890, If market reaches there, we could have a short position.

Outlook Trade opportunity
Risky trade to hold longer times , so better trade scalps
#1 - Short from 0.8872
#2 - Short from 0.8890

Risk Level High

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Daily - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg Size: 165 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H1 - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg Size: 210 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Weekly - 2013-12-30_18-08.jpg Size: 176 KB
Only the strong survives!
  • #71,140
  • Dec 30, 2013 7:54am Dec 30, 2013 7:54am
Quoting JeremyWS
Decent AUDUSD Options volume so far. Large American Hedge fund trading that AUDUSD doesn't drop below 0.88 by Thursday. {image}
I'm curious, where do you get this information? What broker shows this information, or is this from a website somewhere? Just curious how valid this is. I trust you, just wondering where the source came from. Thanks.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
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