james16 Chart Thread | Page 6469 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,361
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:21pm Dec 27, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting michal9
Hey, Where is the right balance between mechanical and intuitive trading? Would you please share your views to help me shape my approach? One extreme is fully mechanical systems. Something so well-defined that we could write an automated system to backtest and trade it, e.g. a MT4 EA. I believe, and I guess many of you will agree, that fully mechanical systems either do not work long term (years) OR they are very hard to trade with drawdowns twice as big as annual return (like long term mechanical trend following systems). Another extreme is totally...
Great topic and I have too much to say about this so I'll try to limit it.

I'm a discretionary trader and I would simply say that your trading plan needs to be rigid (or, thorough is perhaps a better word) enough - and no more - so that when you go over your past trades and ask, "did I follow my plan", you're able to answer that question definitively and without ambiguity. But I wouldn't make it any more complicated than that.

So to perhaps put that in practical terms for you, the first example you gave is probably fine "trade bullish pinbars on key levels in line with the trend" so long as you define in your plan a) what a key level is, and b) what is your definition of a trend. But maybe you're having trouble taking bad pin bars and so have to define that clearly as well. But the things I personally have in my plan are driven primarily by specific issues I've had in the past that have caused me to lose money repeatedly, and worded in a way that "draws the line" so that I'm never in a position to go back to a past trade and ask myself, "did I follow the rules", and my answer is "I have absolutely no clue".

Here's an example from my own experience. I have a rule when day trading the NY open that I've had a minimum of 7 hours of sleep the night before. If I've had less than that, I'm not trading. I created this rule when I realized a clear pattern from my journal, which was simply, lack of sleep = bad trading day. But let's say in my rules I stated "No trading if I didn't get enough sleep", and then I look back at a trading session where I got 6 hours of sleep. Now, did I follow my rules? I have no clue, because I have no definition in my rules of what "enough sleep" is. Now does this mean if I got 6:59 hours of sleep the night before, I'm not rested? Probably not. What I'm more concerned about is being able to look back to my journal when things are not going well, ask why, and clearly say, "oh, I didn't follow the rules", or "I did follow the rules - so maybe this rule isn't working or isn't as important as I thought it was". But you can't make that assessment otherwise.

I tend to think of the balance between mechanical and discretionary as a violin soloist playing at a concert. It's critical for the soloist to a) play the right notes, with the right rhythm, and in tune (follow the rules), but also b) adapt / improvise to the tempo and dynamics of the orchestra & conductor and to the moment (make discretionary decisions based on context). If either aspect is broken or missing, the piece can fall apart. But neither aspect necessarily negates the other and in fact, they actually work together in harmony. I know that's a bit more philosophical than practical but that's the way I think of it.

Hope this helps.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,362
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:53pm Dec 27, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Fxyogi - that is indeed a fakey setup except for one problem - I think the "inside bar" on your chart is actually a Sunday bar? Therefore not technically a valid fakey for me. FYI The fakey / Hikkake pattern is one of my highest probability setups. I don't trade inside bars the way Jim trades them but they are key to my analysis and I watch for them.
Speaking of fakeouts...
Attached Image
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,363
  • Edited 7:04pm Dec 27, 2013 6:54pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Fxyogi - that is indeed a fakey setup except for one problem - I think the "inside bar" on your chart is actually a Sunday bar? Therefore not technically a valid fakey for me. FYI The fakey / Hikkake pattern is one of my highest probability setups. I don't trade inside bars the way Jim trades them but they are key to my analysis and I watch for them.
Hi mate,

That's not a Sunday bar. My broker don't have Sunday bar. Hikkake pattern is powerful when you have big momentum bar and price flagging slowly and suddenly push against to the momentum bar direction to catch the counter trend traders quickly to add liquidity, then continue original direction. This happens often. May be i can post some charts later.

inside bar trading is highly dangerous if don't know all the story as Ghous mentioned. We have group of traders in "fxyogi" and we don't take those setups. But i am curious how you guys trading. Appreciate if you show me how you trade them. Of course when you have time.

Learning trading is fun .Applying that is painfully fun

Cheers
  • #129,364
  • Dec 27, 2013 9:41pm Dec 27, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting Fxyogi
{quote} Hi mate, That's not a Sunday bar. My broker don't have Sunday bar. Hikkake pattern is powerful when you have big momentum bar and price flagging slowly and suddenly push against to the momentum bar direction to catch the counter trend traders quickly to add liquidity, then continue original direction. This happens often. May be i can post some charts later. inside bar trading is highly dangerous if don't know all the story as Ghous mentioned. We have group of traders in "fxyogi" and we don't take those setups. But i am curious how you guys...
Interesting - what are the open / close times of your inside bar? There can't be a full 24 hours in there ...can it?

Yeah basically what you described is what I do. I always look to enter a setup on a retrace (which instantly negates me trading inside bars in the traditional way) but I look for them because I'm highly interested in what happens afterwards. I also consider a pin bar immediately followed by an engulfing bar in the opposite direction (which implies trend continuation) to be a type of fakey setup although I don't know what to call it. Of course it all depends on context.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,365
  • Dec 28, 2013 2:38am Dec 28, 2013 2:38am
Quoting Fxyogi
{quote} Ghous, Thanks very much mate. But we were asking you about price action signals. One guy with one time zone will see an out side bar, but another guy with different time zone will not see outside bar since his candles/bars arranged to the different time zone. How to over come this?. this will effect the intraday price action reading. We have another question on the attached chart. Will u trade that PB given that left shoulder is there. Suppose say yes, do u consider both blue and red lines as your trouble areas?. Man we are having fun with...
Quote
But we were asking you about price action signals. One guy with one time zone will see an out side bar, but another guy with different time zone will not see outside bar since his candles/bars arranged to the different time zone. How to over come this?

The crux of our setups is never the bar, but the overall story behind the bar that makes them credible. This means that there is almost no chance that a trader looking at feed A will spot a well built BEOB and a trader looking at feed B will spot a big bold BUOB on the same setup. If anything it might mean that one feed shows a more well defined PA bar and the other, a PA bar that isn't as impressive (possible a weaker close on the bar). Again if the story is where you put more weight you might still be convinced to jump in realizing that a few pips in and out don't make or break a setup. In the case where you have one feed showing a PA bar and the other not showing it (or any other) at all this does mean that you will be missing out. In the long run though it all balances out because there is bound to be a situation somewhere in the future where you see a more well defined bar on your feed versus others.

I really wouldn't really worry about this much. The best thing to do is to follow the NY close feed (to align yourself with most other traders) and just stick to it.

Quote
We have another question on the attached chart. Will u trade that PB given that left shoulder is there. Suppose say yes, do u consider both blue and red lines as your trouble areas?.

I wouldn't. Firstly its inappropriate, dangerous even, to be so zoomed in on your charts. The way MT4 is built its going to stretch/contract the chart space and hence the bars themselves based on the pip ranges of them. When you zoom in that much the chart size gets harmfully affected by the size of the the preceding few bars only. This can either inflate or deflate the size of the bar you're looking at leading to misjudgments. Its always a good idea to put the bar itself in the bigger context anyway. If you do that here (by zooming out your chart), you'll notice that its actually a pretty small bar compared to the huge preceding up move. Very little incentive for me to go short at that. Not to mention being dead in the middle of the holiday season too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 31 KB


g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,366
  • Edited 4:07am Dec 28, 2013 3:54am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting michal9
Hey, Where is the right balance between mechanical and intuitive trading? Would you please share your views to help me shape my approach? One extreme is fully mechanical systems. Something so well-defined that we could write an automated system to backtest and trade it, e.g. a MT4 EA. I believe, and I guess many of you will agree, that fully mechanical systems either do not work long term (years) OR they are very hard to trade with drawdowns twice as big as annual return (like long term mechanical trend following systems). Another extreme is totally...
Hey Michal,

You got a good response from Lamer trader.

There is actually a very good reason we always stress on the new traders to start their J16 journey from the higher time frames taking only very few high probability setups and build some confidence and consistency before delving into the more advanced stuff. The J16 thread here is a library with regards to the huge amount (and also varying degrees of) the content that's put up here. We have always appreciated and encouraged using the J16 material in your own creative ways once the basics are nailed in. As much as it is tempting for people to hit on the more advanced stuff to further their learning and discover "market secrets" we want people to start of by following a particular "system". This is precisely to ensure that without dealing with a lot of discretion and unknown territories the trader learns to understand the true spirit and the real ideology and reasoning behind the J16 method. We all know about the big bold pin bars at the top and the bottom of our charts that suck all kinds of discretion out of our trading, right? Shooting for just those, in the initial stages works like the side wheel on kid's bike who is willing to learn how to ride on two, but needs a third for now till he can learn to balance. Of course many just get obsessed with the accuracy that they provide and others go on to include other discretionary aspects to their trading as the mist settles and the ins and outs of this business start to get clearer.

Depending on how much you're willing to listen and follow the J16 minimum requirements, you will notice that you're being started off with a very mechanical, repeatable approach and then let go to see if you would prefer to add / subtract based on your preferences. So this very thread is a good example of how mechanical approaches are often a good ground for people to begin their trading with.

Bear in mind though that when I say mechanical approach, I am talking about a few rules only, set in stone that just can't be broken. I am not pointing out to the explicit possibility of the approach being as mechanical as being made into a bot / EA. I have never understood how the human eye could ever replace a set of trading rules aimed to exploit price action in some way.

That said, I think over time discretion is bound to creep into your trading as well, not as a demon that needs to be killed, but as a much needed option because as your trading knowledge and the understanding of the market grows its obvious when you have to some times bend rule C to take on a setup "you just know" has a very high chance of working. Some aspects to the setup are so strong (that you know about through experience) that a slight deficiency elsewhere is something you're willing to live with. This is where the flexibility in bending the rules a tiny bit comes in, and it does so only when you're willing to be slightly discretionary with your trading.

To answer your question yes I believe the more discretionary your trading is the more it indicates that you are backing it with experience (if you're profitable and consistent).

g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,367
  • Dec 28, 2013 3:59am Dec 28, 2013 3:59am
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Great topic and I have too much to say about this so I'll try to limit it. I'm a discretionary trader and I would simply say that your trading plan needs to be rigid (or, thorough is perhaps a better word) enough - and no more - so that when you go over your past trades and ask, "did I follow my plan", you're able to answer that question definitively and without ambiguity. But I wouldn't make it any more complicated than that. So to perhaps put that in practical terms for you, the first example you gave is probably fine "trade bullish pinbars...
Very valid points to justify your stance, but there could be equally convincing arguments for maintaining discretion in your trading. Again there is obviously no one size fits all that we're trying to get at here. It really depends on what works for you as an individual trader. Some people enjoy the thrill of discretion others are high on uncertainty avoidance and like to go by the rule book all the time. No point in arguing which one's the better approach as you obviously wouldn't give a damn if either one proves to be better for you.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,368
  • Dec 28, 2013 4:01am Dec 28, 2013 4:01am
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Speaking of fakeouts... {image}
I see no fake out.

You're either talking about fake outs in the context of your own method or have completely misconstrued mine.

Saw a chart earlier from Fxyogi that got me thinking the same.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,369
  • Dec 28, 2013 4:03am Dec 28, 2013 4:03am
Quoting dan89
{quote} Hey Ghous, thanks for the reply mate. Yeah I was looking into myfxbook, but like you said they only seem to support mt4 which suck (for me anyway lol). Thats an interesting point about maintaining capital. I hadnt thought of that. But for me I guess this is OK but I dont withdraw any of my money. I compound every trade. I guess I could take the exact same trades on my demo mt4 while taking live trades through tradestation, that way I would atleast get the stats I need without having to change live brokers. Oh and thanks for reminding me...
Apart from the additional hassle of duplicating your trading actions, I think that's a good idea.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,370
  • Dec 28, 2013 5:03am Dec 28, 2013 5:03am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Michal, You got a good response from Lamer trader. There is actually a very good reason we always stress on the new traders to start their J16 journey from the higher time frames taking only very few high probability setups and build some confidence and consistency before delving into the more advanced stuff. The J16 thread here is a library with regards to the huge amount (and also varying degrees of) the content that's put up here. We have always appreciated and encouraged using the J16 material in your own creative ways once the basics...
If I may chime in...
I won't add much than what has already been very nicely said. I would just like to add my personal experience as a brand new trader aiming at consistency...
That stuff works damn good. Even (especially?) the simplest method works. Great.
This is what my personal experience has proven me.

I've been struggling with the "one size fits all doesn't exist, you have to build your own trading plan". Yeah, ok, cool. But how do I build anything if I don't have any background? if I don't have any practical experience that shows me that this aspect of this strategy fits my personality while this one does not? How can I choose if I don't have the experience to tell me which stuff to chose?
This question went from PA setup to plotting S/R (flip zone and/or HCR/LCS and/or RN, on MN, W1, D1 ????), including position sizing and trade management (move sl to be? yes but when? James 16 tells me to do it asap, Mike tells me not to but he reduces his risk rapidly, RyanMCD suggests me to do it only when 1R hit - damn thing).

The only solution I found was to take a step back, a deep deep breath, consider that learning this stuff will take the time it takes, and focus on the basics.
We are lucky enough to follow this particular thread. Post 1 offers a road map through learning, and seasoned traders are always here to give an advice and put us back on the right tracks. More than just the right tracks, the tracks that suits us. They seem to understand who likes to touch trade and then give him/her advice for better touch trading, while the other, struggling with trade management, will be advised to focus on this aspect (been there ).

I can't say what I've been through will work for you, it just worked for me.
I came back to the very basics. Selected a set of "rules" for entry, exit, risk & trade management, etc, based on the very core of J16 teaching. Followed that for 3 months on a demo account.
Right now, my account is prospering smoothly. And you know what? I feel I'd better stay on demo for 1-2 months more. Just to make sure. I've slightly modified some rules, to fit more my personality, and I just want to make sure they can support the harsh reality of the market.

Long story short: I had to decide what rules to follow. I selected them from the basics, the easiest tools this thread offer. Put them in practice for a while. Experienced the adjustments I had to make.
Now I feel I can go further in refining this system to my personality.
Honestly, few months from now, I wouldn't have bet on that.

Take care
Slow & steady
  • #129,371
  • Dec 28, 2013 7:14pm Dec 28, 2013 7:14pm
Good post mate!
allow me to add one more thing. I don't see people talking much about backtesting here. This is the only way to find out and prove, what works for you. Instead of coming here and asking " is this good pinbar? Is this bar big enough? Is this good location for a trade?" the same questions all over again, just do some back testing/trading. Check all pinbars for the last 10 years, analyze and learn what they look like and how market behaves after.
Forums like j16 are good and helpful, but the answer is in your excel sheet and the experience you get from backtesting.
Imagine how much time people lose to read posts, answer, prepare screenshots. You could have done plenty of trade on your tester software for this time.

Sorry, if this sounds disrespectful to the senior J16 traders here, who give their time and blood for the peoplewho like to learn. It is just, what worked for me. That is the reason, what i am doing 95% of the time and i am totaly addicted to it :-)
why?
Because: Market repeats itself. If you learn all the patterns for the last 10-20 year, you learned everything and you can trade all market conditions for the coming 10-20 years.

it is that simple!




Quoting patapouer
{quote} If I may chime in... I won't add much than what has already been very nicely said. I would just like to add my personal experience as a brand new trader aiming at consistency... That stuff works damn good. Even (especially?) the simplest method works. Great. This is what my personal experience has proven me. I've been struggling with the "one size fits all doesn't exist, you have to build your own trading plan". Yeah, ok, cool. But how do I build anything if I don't have any background? if I don't have any practical experience that shows...
  • #129,372
  • Dec 28, 2013 7:28pm Dec 28, 2013 7:28pm
Thank you for all your responses to my "discretionary vs. mechanical" topic.

This has been really helpful and again I am amazed with quality help I am getting from you.
I really appreciate this and hope one day I will also contribute and help others :-) For now, I go back to learning and testing.

See you and all the best in 2014!
Michal9
  • #129,373
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:23am Dec 29, 2013 7:23am
hello mike ,happy newyear. could this be wick fill type setup? thanks

Al.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily007.png Size: 53 KB
  • #129,374
  • Dec 29, 2013 12:20pm Dec 29, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting albus999
hello mike ,happy newyear. could this be wick fill type setup? thanks Al. {image}
Hey Albus

I think that's just a very illiquid market and a spike above to clear out a position or just clear the stops. One thing I am careful about is any wicks where price closes back under previous resistance/support. So if price closed above the swing high points it's much better chance to fill a wick

Happy new year to you too
Mike
  • #129,375
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:55am Dec 30, 2013 11:55am
Mike wishing you James and Families and all at J16 A Very Happy New Year
Thank You
Damien
  • #129,376
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:28pm Dec 30, 2013 12:28pm
Ghous

Wishing you A Very Happy New Year.
Damien
  • #129,377
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:35pm Dec 30, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Albus I think that's just a very illiquid market and a spike above to clear out a position or just clear the stops. One thing I am careful about is any wicks where price closes back under previous resistance/support. So if price closed above the swing high points it's much better chance to fill a wick Happy new year to you too Mike
Thanks mike but i was wondering about the fact that it closed above all the blue lines it could fill up to the swing point made just above it in reference to the chart due to all the traffic below confluencing with the trendline. Not being able to view chart due to where i am currently .

A Happy, Healthy and Prosperous NewYear to all forum membersto those using other calenders still in the old year a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous OldYear to you as well.


Al
  • #129,378
  • Dec 30, 2013 4:02pm Dec 30, 2013 4:02pm
Hello guys,

This is one of the last day of this year. I would like to wish you happy new year, many successful trades and, the most important, health. I hope new year will be better then this one. At the same time I want to introduce you my new website. I will mention it only once. It is http://tradingroup.eu/. If you want to cooperate, write me on my e-mail or send me personal message here. Sorry for advertising.

Prospererous new year to everybody. Relax a little bit and spend some time with your family and fellows.

Adam
Lose small, win BIG
  • #129,379
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:37pm Dec 30, 2013 6:37pm
Hey all

Absolutely nothing happening with the charts as of late. Just this semi decent box starting to form. Looking for a BO either way if we get a few more touches.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31-12-2013 00-35-15.png Size: 29 KB


Edit, Just looking at that pattern now, I dont like the top level. Just need it to hold maybe once more before taking a break to the downside of the bottom level which looks alot better

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 31-12-2013 00-35-155.png Size: 42 KB


Mike, Whats your opinion on this chart

Take care
Dan
  • #129,380
  • Dec 30, 2013 6:57pm Dec 30, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} Interesting - what are the open / close times of your inside bar? There can't be a full 24 hours in there ...can it? Yeah basically what you described is what I do. I always look to enter a setup on a retrace (which instantly negates me trading inside bars in the traditional way) but I look for them because I'm highly interested in what happens afterwards. I also consider a pin bar immediately followed by an engulfing bar in the opposite direction (which implies trend continuation) to be a type of fakey setup although I don't know what to...
Felixcattus, just Noticed the Sunday bars after you pointed out . But the dates are somehow different . I got fooled by the dates. Thanks for pointing out mate.Any idea to overcome sunday bar?.
99 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Zojahamad