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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #381
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:11am Dec 26, 2013 6:11am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Can somebody prove to me that the market is truly random? You know, in such a fashion so as to not characterize everything as random? I go by this axiom: no matter how sound your premises, and how rigorous your line of argument is extending from them, sooner or later they will lead you to a conclusion that is not the case! (Of course to prove this axiom false is to prove it true and vice-versa) Study of probabilities shows that a true coin can come up heads 33 times in a row and still be truly random. Just not as often as two times in a row. So...
The coin was flipped ... This was indeed non random, the result may be unpredictable but one thing is for certain, the coin will land showing either a head or a tail.

Can anyone prove the maket is NOT random? Maybe for a day, a week, a month? Maybe half the time ?

Maybe sometimes the market is random and sometimes it is not at all random... Why should it be one or the other?

Perhaps random to me is completely different to random to you... Maybe from some perspectous everything in life is random but from some perspectous out of reach to a mere human brain, completely predefined.

I feel your question does no justice to the depth of the answer, if there is an answer at all.
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #382
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:23am Dec 26, 2013 6:23am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Get lost Cindy. You are just as worthless, regardless of username.

And you think your not just a troll lol
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #383
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:34am Dec 26, 2013 6:34am
The minute detail appears to be random, ie 1 or 2 bars, whether H4 or M1, start looking at thebigger picture not just a few candles which will always appear random.

Try to get a random number generated chart to respect my 120sma on that chart I posted, or respect a 00 or 50 level more than coincidental, or a support area.

Move away from looking at single candles, look at 100+ only!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #384
  • Dec 26, 2013 6:37am Dec 26, 2013 6:37am
From a practical sense, even though, random or not, the market cannot be reliably predicted, it can be adjusted to, navigated for profit.

It took a long time for sailors to learn how to adjust to the wind. The first reliable commercial routes were between Africa and India where the wind blew in one direction all season long for one season and all season long the other way for another season. ships would arrive, off load, reload, and wait for the change of seasons. Else wise, you put up the sail when the wind went your direction, and took it down and rowed when it did not.

Tacking and jibbing were learned over long centuries of rugged experience.

Nothing says that this is an easy skill. The number of traders that have been notably successful have had books written about them.

Now it could be that they are simply the fortunate receivers of random luck. It cannot be proved otherwise. I suspect however, some technique was involved.

Perhaps it is time to put behind the dreamy landscape of ontological questions.
So the reply to Socrates: That that is, is. That that is not, is not.
  • #385
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:15am Dec 26, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Turveyd
The minute detail appears to be random, ie 1 or 2 bars, whether H4 or M1, start looking at thebigger picture not just a few candles which will always appear random. Try to get a random number generated chart to respect my 120sma on that chart I posted, or respect a 00 or 50 level more than coincidental, or a support area. Move away from looking at single candles, look at 100+ only!
Let's see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RandomD1-sma120-02.png Size: 21 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #386
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:26am Dec 26, 2013 9:26am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Let's see. {image}{image}{image}{image}

Not the same, you've picked coincidental charts which did work to 120sma, random or not and picked them, does it work as often as real live trading ??


I think no.3 is real, the rest random.?

I'll go for this test though :-

M1 ONLY!!

9sma
120sma
Envelope 120SMA 0.09% Dev
Envelope 21sma 0.07% Dev
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #387
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:33am Dec 26, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Turveyd
Try to get a random number generated chart to respect my 120sma
I actually don't quite understand what the significance of 120 SMA and on which time frame ! In any case, let me ask u: What is the criteria of price direction according to ur moving average indicator ?!

The reason i'm asking, is i spend two months of my life time experimenting with moving averges of various time frames - only to find out they produce inaccurate signals and no indication of a direction... They only produce accurate direction in hind sight, so since i don't have a time machine - i rendered it useless !

Astonished of someone considering himself a serious trader talking about such concepts ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #388
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:43am Dec 26, 2013 9:43am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} I actually don't quite understand what the significance of 120 SMA and on which time frame ! In any case, let me ask u: What is the criteria of price direction according to ur moving average indicator ?! The reason i'm asking, is i spend two months of my life time experimenting with moving averges of various time frames - only to find out they produce inaccurate signals and no indication of a direction... They only produce accurate direction in hind sight, so since i don't have a time machine - i rendered it useless ! Astonished of someone...
M1 only here....


I kinda agree with above, I too spent years part time working on MA based logic, nothing has enough relevance Live to be profitable, good times then POOR times but I don't use it standardly.

I use the 120sma and look at it's direction, to no regard as to where price is, if 120sma is up and I get a pull back below 120sma I still consider it to be a with uptrend long position. I then have ranges so a pull back of X pips below the 120sma would likely signal a reversal and that's where my SL would be.

But I have other rules, revolving around the 21sma envelope also. Fairly simple, longs at the bottom stuff.



Bottom line, it works for me and it's making me money, which at the end of the day is all that counts, increase trading after the holiday hell is over, all being well!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #389
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:49am Dec 26, 2013 9:49am
Quoting Vachus
{quote} so since i don't have a time machine

Okay new FF rule, anyone who can't afford / be bothered to buy there own time machine, can't post!!!


Should make it a lot quieter around here.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #390
  • Dec 26, 2013 10:02am Dec 26, 2013 10:02am
Quote
I can't tell you where the market is going to go but I can tell you what might happen when it gets there.

:nerd:
  • #391
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:21am Dec 26, 2013 11:21am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Not the same, you've picked coincidental charts which did work to 120sma, random or not and picked them, does it work as often as real live trading ?? I think no.3 is real, the rest random.? I'll go for this test though :- M1 ONLY!! 9sma 120sma Envelope 120SMA 0.09% Dev Envelope 21sma 0.07% Dev
No I didn't cherry picked a chart where it works! I have a scientific approach. You ask for a random chart with a 120sma. I generate a chart and drop a 120sma onto it. The four screenshots are a random chart. The same one. I took the equivalent of D1 and H4 to give two TF examples. I squeezed the candles and took two screenshots to see as much as possible of the chart and have a representative sample.

I don't understand what is an envelope 0.09% Dev. If I use 0.0009 times the standard deviation it will render the bands and the average at the same pixel.

I used the same chart, this time at M1, and set the 3 indis you asked. Except I used 0.9 times and 0.7 times the standard deviation to see something.
I took two screenshots. The first at the very end of the generated candles. So it's not cherry picked for sure. The second one just before. I've drawn a rectangle as a marker, so you are sure. The chart is vertically resized to fit.

The 3rd and 4th pictures are the same 3 indis on the real EUR/USD M1 for comparision. I took the PA as of today, right now. So not cherry picked either.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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E/U M1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #392
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:23am Dec 26, 2013 11:23am
E/U M1 looks even more chaotic than the random one.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #393
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:31am Dec 26, 2013 11:31am
Quoting PipMeUp
E/U M1 looks even more chaotic than the random one.
They all look like untradable pieces of horse feces dumped onto a chart with a few wavey lines to make it look pretty, like a big moose with make up, she just ain't gonna work. *shudder*
  • #394
  • Edited 11:36am Dec 26, 2013 11:35am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting PipMeUp
E/U M1 looks even more chaotic than the random one.

Sorry to be a pain, but if you look you'll see Envelope Indicator. you might have to put in a SMA + a Deviation, there basically fixed pip by %, I hate BB's.

Here is GA today just, so you can see what I'm after.



EU is just horrible, don't know why anyone ever tries to trade that!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Should look like this.jpg Size: 324 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #395
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:41am Dec 26, 2013 11:41am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} They all look like untradable pieces of horse feces dumped onto a chart with a few wavey lines to make it look pretty, like a big moose with make up, she just ain't gonna work. *shudder*

Don't worry method is nothing like that, if it was I'd of definately lost what's left of my marbles!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #396
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:47am Dec 26, 2013 11:47am
Sorry I'm not using MT4. I don't know what is a "pip by %". I just don't know their algorithm to reproduce. I'll try to reverse engineer Envelope Indicator if I find the .mq4 file.
MT4 is just horrible, don't know why anyone ever tries to trade with that!
BTW I used E/U because... everyone ever tries to trade that.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #397
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:53am Dec 26, 2013 11:53am
Quoting PipMeUp
Sorry I'm not using MT4. I don't know what is a "pip by %". I just don't know their algorithm to reproduce. I'll try to reverse engineer Envelope Indicator if I find the .mq4 file. MT4 is just horrible, don't know why anyone ever tries to trade with that! BTW I used E/U because... everyone ever tries to trade that.

Lack of pip movement compared to spread cost makes scalping on EU kinda pointless.

GU is better, if you have the data ??

120 Envelope is 15pips above and below the 120sma.

21 Envelope is 11pips above and below the 21sma ( I don't plot the 21sma itself )



It's a % so it'll vary depending on the pairs price.


and I don't trade of MT4 hateful, I use Tablet software, so I can trade in bed LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #398
  • Dec 26, 2013 11:55am Dec 26, 2013 11:55am
GA high to low range, 115pips, EU 23 pips see my point ??

I'd allow EU is totally random all the time if that helps ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #399
  • Edited 12:42pm Dec 26, 2013 12:19pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting the redlion
{quote} great, then i will run some statistical test on the returns and compare with real market data I'm going to need open,high,low,close values though so we can visually compare it and empirically compare the returns
Ok redlion you wish has come true i made a random candlestick generator.It was really easy to made but due to X-mas it took a while.So this is my X-mas present to you every FF member.

I present you the new:

True Random Candlestick Generator


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic.png Size: 39 KB


How to use it:

You need 2 truly randomized binary files (containing only 0 and 1) which are delimited by a semicolon " ; " , which will be your UP or DOWN movement randomizers separetely each for OPEN,CLOSE
And you need 1 truly randomized file containing integers from 0 to max tick value, also delimited by a semicolon " ; "

So in total you must have 3 data files, each in ASCII .txt format

If the files are not in correct format , then the program will most likely give an error or generate the sticks badly.

To use its very easy, just load the CLOSE binary file with the LOAD RAND CLOSE button and the OPEN binary file with the LOAD RAND OPEN, and then load the randomized tick size data with the LOAD TICK DISTANCE DATA button, you can also change the initial values, as you wish.After all is done just press the START and the tick data will be generated into the "CANDLESTICK_OUTPUT.txt" file in the same folder!


How does it calculate the random candles:

You have to give it an initial value, which you can easily pick from any real data chart for example i used an initial value of:
CLOSE: 1.2345 , OPEN: 1.2344 , LOW: 1.2342 , HIGH: 1.2347

1) then the program checks the random value of the next OPEN price from the file you loaded for the OPEN

if the value is 0 then the new OPEN is below the previous CLOSE by -TICKSIZE*0.0001 amount
if the value is 1 then the new OPEN is above the previous CLOSE by +TICKSIZE*0.0001 amount

2) then the program checks the random value of the next CLOSE price from the file you loaded for the CLOSE

if the value is 0 then the new CLOSE is below the current OPEN by -TICKSIZE*0.0001 amount
if the value is 1 then the new CLOSE is above the current OPEN by +TICKSIZE*0.0001 amount

3) then the program checks the random value of the next HIGH price from the file you loaded for the HIGH

the value of the HIGH will be added to the maximum (OPEN ,CLOSE) by +TICKSIZE*0.0001

4) then the program checks the random value of the next LOW price from the file you loaded for the LOW

the value of the LOW will be added to the minimum (OPEN ,CLOSE) by -TICKSIZE*0.0001

It is important that the TICKSIZE file to contain integers starting from 0 (representing the no shadow candles or marubozu ones) and the maximum ingeger in the ticksize should be the max value you want a tick to move in a given time.
I would use 0 to 10 thus after being multiplied by 0.0001 this will represent a 0 pip move to a 10 pip move random pip number

If you still dont understand how the program calculates/randomizez the ticks, here is the C# code for it:

Inserted Code
//initial values from input
                OPEN[0] = OPST.Text;
                CLOSE[0] = CLST.Text;
                LOW[0] = LOST.Text;
                HIGH[0] = HIST.Text;
for (int GO = 1; GO < size-1; GO++)
{
    if (TRADESOPEN[GO] == "1")
        OPEN[GO] = ( Convert.ToDouble(CLOSE[GO - 1]) + Convert.ToDouble( TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001 ).ToString();
    if (TRADESOPEN[GO] == "0")
        OPEN[GO] = (Convert.ToDouble(CLOSE[GO - 1]) - Convert.ToDouble(TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001).ToString();

    if (TRADESCLOSE[GO] == "1")
        CLOSE[GO] = (Convert.ToDouble(OPEN[GO]) + Convert.ToDouble(TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001).ToString();
    if (TRADESCLOSE[GO] == "0")
        CLOSE[GO] = (Convert.ToDouble(OPEN[GO]) - Convert.ToDouble(TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001).ToString();

    HIGH[GO] = (Math.Max(Convert.ToDouble(OPEN[GO]), Convert.ToDouble(CLOSE[GO])) + (Convert.ToDouble(TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001)).ToString();
    LOW[GO] = (Math.Min(Convert.ToDouble(OPEN[GO]), Convert.ToDouble(CLOSE[GO])) - (Convert.ToDouble(TICKSIZE[GO]) * 0.0001)).ToString();  
        
}

Another important thing to remember that all files should be delimited by semicolon, you can get true random data from here but it is not delimited so you have to use notepad to replace the " " space delimitation with " ; " semicolon delimitation, otherwise the program will give error!! And also if you change the initial values, only input 4 decimal pip values because the program works only with 4 decimals!

I have included random files in the .rar but if you want extra random data you know now how to proceed

Here is a screenshot of my random data after generated into candlesticks in excel,seems very realistic


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIEW.png Size: 20 KB


And here is the program with the data files included, i also included the excel spreadsheet with the data already merged into only 500 candles due to rendering large data problems, but you can test it with other software which can handle larger datas

So this is my Christmas present, so Merry Cristmas (if its not too late )!

http://r.virscan.org/report/f78d9ffd...6b7ca7bd6.html

Attached File(s)
File Type: rar TRUE RANDOM CANDLESTICK GENERATOR.rar   367 KB | 286 downloads
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #400
  • Dec 26, 2013 1:16pm Dec 26, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Proximus
seems very realistic

Not that I completely understand the purpose of this, but the functionality doesn't seem realistic at all, in accordance with the image shown.

Close[2] on most cases does not equal Open[1].

Sure this is present in MT4 charts as the candles are representative of tick data based on a snapshot in accordance to time frame, but I haven't seen as consistent of inconsistency on any time frame in Meta4 as is present in your chart.

That in itself, doesn't lend itself to realism at all.

If it was completely random you were shooting for though, you've hit a home run!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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