why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #341
  • Dec 23, 2013 9:50pm Dec 23, 2013 9:50pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} {quote} I thought Mandelbrot essentially destroyed the idea that markets are random. Pretty much every failed modern financial theory, from Black-Scholes to MPT assumes a random market and normal distribution, and they're all laughably wrong; they all vastly underestimate the odds of large movements (both positive and negative). Besides analysis of markets themselves, if markets are random, the number of consistently successful traders in the world is a massive, massive statistical fluke beyond human comprehension. Beating the market for...
Good post.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #342
  • Dec 24, 2013 8:42pm Dec 24, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} {quote}I like to think of trading like predicting the weather, which is also a chaotic system. While we can't exactly predict the weather, given certain circumstances and based on previous weather patterns, we can make a pretty good educated guess as to what will happen in the short term. Sometimes it will be wrong in direction (predicting rain and it turns out sunny), sometimes it will be wrong in magnitude (predicting 65 and sunny and it turns out 85 and sunny), but sometimes it will be exactly how we think it will be. Treat trading like...
So in conclusion, those that are arguing that the market is not random, finish with: Yes, it is predictable, but with absolutely no real accuracy, consistency or empirical data what so ever to back it up.

GEfx, in his reply here, sums up what it means to "predict" the market the best, in my opinion. The keyword he uses is "faith". Based on his experience, he has faith in his trading style. Is it sheer luck? Is he predicting the market? He doesn't know. But what he does know is that it's working. In 10 or 20 years GEfx may even be able to provide redlion with the empirical data he is looking for.

At the crux of it all, no one really knows. If asked, a five year old could "predict" where price was headed; he may be right or he may be wrong. At the end of the day, everyone will project their own bias on whether it's random or not based on their short term trading results.

Turveyd, you are an intelligent guy, but no doubt closed minded. This is in regards to your comment about Joe's trading here. You mock him without any evidence to disprove his profitability. I am in no way defending him; he did come off as a d*ck. This is where the programmers separate themselves from the theorists. A programmer can take a theory and truly test it over a large period of time creating a big enough sample set to derive a real conclusion.

Thanks for a great thread ya'll. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #343
  • Dec 25, 2013 1:10am Dec 25, 2013 1:10am
Quoting ForexFury
Turveyd, you are an intelligent guy
With those 6 words you have shown that you are absolutely not. You are calling "intelligent" a guy who for the last however many years has been proclaiming on this forum that "next week" he'll be super-massive-mega profitable with his "new" tweaked system. The same guy who can't make an intelligible sentence and can't spell to save himself. The same guy who comes on the forum and whines about taking care of some hoodrats kids.

This is the same guy who jumped into this thread and turned it into a pile of shit, just like I called it before I unsubscribed from here.

Those 6 words earned you a fast-track to the iggy list. Ho Ho Ho. I knew there would be an xmas gem just waiting on these boards for me, and here they were. Satisfied, and out.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #344
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:10am Dec 25, 2013 4:10am
ho ho ho
  • #345
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:18am Dec 25, 2013 4:18am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} So in conclusion, those that are arguing that the market is not random, finish with: Yes, it is predictable, but with absolutely no real accuracy, consistency or empirical data what so ever to back it up. GEfx, in his reply here, sums up what it means to "predict" the market the best, in my opinion. The keyword he uses is "faith". Based on his experience, he has faith in his trading style. Is it sheer luck? Is he predicting the market? He doesn't know....
I did not mock him on this, i used him as an example, he believes the market is entirely random and therefore no SL hold till profit is the only way to win.

that's all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #346
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:25am Dec 25, 2013 4:25am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} With those 6 words you have shown that you are absolutely not. You are calling "intelligent" a guy who for the last however many years has been proclaiming on this forum that "next week" he'll be super-massive-mega profitable with his "new" tweaked system. The same guy who can't make an intelligible sentence and can't spell to save himself. The same guy who comes on the forum and whines about taking care of some hoodrats kids. This is the same guy who jumped into this thread and turned it into a pile of shit, just like I called it...
Your a nasty little troll, your posts on here suggest you could have a brain, but your too close minded so all you generally do is rant at everyone to make your self feel superior no doubt, epic fail!

Myposts are honest, a rare thing around here, so odd you single me out.

how about cliicking ignore and stop trolling me ? Getting a life ?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #347
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:26am Dec 25, 2013 4:26am
Quoting GDR3k
ho ho ho
The correct amount of Ho's to get through today!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #348
  • Dec 25, 2013 4:42am Dec 25, 2013 4:42am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} The correct amount of Ho's to get through today!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Girls-santa-background-wallpaper-winter-christmas-desktop.jpg Size: 281 KB
Attached Image
  • #349
  • Dec 25, 2013 9:14am Dec 25, 2013 9:14am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Your a nasty little troll, your posts on here suggest you could have a brain, but your too close minded so all you generally do is rant at everyone to make your self feel superior no doubt, epic fail! Myposts are honest, a rare thing around here, so odd you single me out. how about cliicking ignore and stop trolling me ? Getting a life ?
You're
troll. Your
brain but
you're
close-minded
yourself
doubt. Epic fail
My posts
; a rare
here. So odd
out. How about clicking

These are just a taste of your general retardation. In the space of so few sentence you made at least these basic errors I have listed for you, but you'll never learn. You'll never do better. You are too self-absorbed in your little fantasy you have created around yourself where you think you have something worthwhile to say and where people care one bit about anything you have to share, apart from laughing at it all.

You are a joke, and while you continue to be a joke people like myself will afford you the disrespect you so rightly deserve and continue to earn from us. Until you shut up, or stop being so utterly stupid, then you will be nothing more than flatulence; occasionally amusing, but always repugnant.

How about you shut up for awhile and let Red have his fucking thread back instead of filling it with your typical bullshit that screams to be called-out on. Your mere presence derails every thread you go near. Thread-starters would do well to put you on iggy to keep you far far away from potential intelligent discussion. This could have been an interesting thread, but here you came along. Well done, Turveyd. Your complete failing at life creates an aura around you that stinks up every thread you touch. Slow-clap for you. Everybody here, including myself, were having a fine old time until you took a stinky seat in the corner with your diapers armed and ready for posting.

Give us all an xmas miracle and get lost! Let this thread get back on track without your nonsense dragging it down. In fact, why don't you just go join hopwood's forum of lunacy. You'd fit right in, I'm sure. I'm sure red will see reason soon-enough and boot you out of here, nonetheless.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #350
  • Edited 11:01am Dec 25, 2013 10:49am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} With those 6 words you have shown that you are absolutely not. You are calling "intelligent" a guy who for the last however many years has been proclaiming on this forum that "next week" he'll be super-massive-mega profitable with his "new" tweaked system. The same guy who can't make an intelligible sentence and can't spell to save himself. The same guy who comes on the forum and whines about taking care of some hoodrats kids. This is the same guy who jumped into this thread and turned it into a pile of shit, just like I called it...

Absolutely pathetic.

Let me get this straight. In no way did I refer to you directly. I did not comment or criticize on anything you had to say. You ignore me because I called someone based on my limited experience with him, intelligent. The same guy whom you haven't ignored yet? What a joke.

I didn't know they allowed five year old kids to post on these forums. I've read your posts. In all seriousness you add nothing of value and are an absolute troll. What a freaking cry baby. This is why this forum has gone to shit; people like you who add absolutely no value what so ever but have the biggest, nastiest mouths of anyone. I don't spend 99.9% of my time posting on online forums. I actually do things; create real models and code real strategies. Have you ever even worked a day in your life on an actual trading floor? What possibly fuels your misplaced arrogance?

Anyway what's the point? I have to sit here and argue with you? I have a ton of choice words, like 40 year old, virgin and mom's basement, that I'm not going to use because you'll probably go running to a moderator like the coward you are. Why don't you spend your time as a full time member of the grammar police instead. It'll serve you better.

Apologies, redlion. I won't address this joker again. Absolutely pathetic from all angles.

Since this guy won't be able to see this message, can someone quote me so he can read it? Turveyd, if you could please do the honors.

Merry Christmas to all. Hope it's a great day with your families.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #351
  • Dec 25, 2013 10:53am Dec 25, 2013 10:53am
He will click view don't worry! Damn trolls.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #352
  • Dec 25, 2013 10:57am Dec 25, 2013 10:57am
Quoting Turveyd
He will click view don't worry! Damn trolls.

Ah, very good sir. Merry Christmas! A shame to have to start the day like this.

Again, shouts to redlion for a thought provoking thread.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #353
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:44pm Dec 25, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Ah, very good sir. Merry Christmas! A shame to have to start the day like this. Again, shouts to redlion for a thought provoking thread.
Inserted Video
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #354
  • Edited 3:29pm Dec 25, 2013 3:09pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Absolutely pathetic.
. Merry Christmas to all. Hope it's a great day with your families.
X2 ... wow

On a sidenote, this question is one every trader needs to think about until they can come up with an answer..
Good 2014 to the traders out there.
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #355
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:32pm Dec 25, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting milam
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K30e9O3Nng
One of my favorite movies of all time, milam.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #356
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:39pm Dec 25, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} One of my favorite movies of all time, milam.
Also mine with "Good will hunting"…Merry Christmas...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #357
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:44pm Dec 25, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting the redlion
I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing of certain assets, if in...
I am a finance professional, a fellow chartered accountant worked with Big-Four for years, more than a decade to be precise. During this period, worked closely with investment banks, mutual funds and stock brokers. Very proud in claiming that I nerver violated previledged information by-laws, rules and laws. My experience tells me that insider (or outsider) information is just information, you never know how market will react to that information when released. Sometimes, market takes time in reacting to a piece of information or a new development. Many a times, market goes even in opposite direction for some time soon after this information becomes public.

That means, information and market reaction to that information are two totally different things. During my active stock trading times, I used to get information from sources not generally used by many. For example, quarterly sales tax and duties paid by companies in many countries are avaialble for public record. I used to obtain copies of this public record and calculate their sales and with little bit of financial analysis of their historic cost and profitability ratios, calculate their profit performance before interim or final audited accounts were released. That analysis, even correct 99% of the time, never gave me any visible advantage. Why? .......... because there are so many factors affecting price movements and their timing............... there is no limit to market inefficiencies
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #358
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:51pm Dec 25, 2013 3:51pm
If you guys think price is random, open up a monthly chart. Now, open a very small position with a few monthly trends. Come back to it once a week to check on it. Profit
  • #359
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:56pm Dec 25, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting NJaNeer
If you guys think price is random, open up a monthly chart. Now, open a very small position with a few monthly trends. Come back to it once a week to check on it. Profit
Thanks. I have implemented 50% of your advise........................... just opened a monthly chart. Not sure if I want to take a position based on monthly.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #360
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:57pm Dec 25, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
He will click view don't worry! Damn trolls.
Holy crap Turveyd, what did you do that fella?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
2 traders viewing now