it's a small matter

this will track a small standard ibfx account during 2014...... explorer will be public...... initial balance will be 10k....... possibly more.....

just to get a head start, a few trades were placed this week but will not be serious till after new years day..... goals will be realistic..... trades will be frequent..... targets of the weekly atr scale......

charts and reasoning will be posted, before, during and after, in my usual laid back manner..... examples below..... h

//------
//------

edit.....

ibfx decided to exit the metatrader maket in sept 2014..... accounts were transferred to fxcm......

the ibfx accounts explorer '2 weeks' was discontinued and all money was withdrawn.....

the new fxcm explorer 'small matter' will begin with 4000$..... trading will begin in earnest 1/1/2015 ........h


//---------------------------------------------------------

edit yet again

a lot has changed since beginning this deal with ibfx..... they threw in the towel last year....

began again this year on may 11th with oanda and 3000.... goal is to make and withdraw 10% per month.....

went ahead 8/4/15 and withdrew 900$...

and just for more real life experience might have an occasional 'fictitious emergency' withdrawal ...... ya know, like maybe when basspro shops puts that winchester on sale.....

300 for may...
300 for june...
300 for july....



will begin posting all indicators and ea's in this post.....h
//-----


explanation of zigzag w order alerts....

//------
peytons test ma explained in videos here.....

send sell and sell limits described here......

how did aunty entity say it, "one day, cock of the walk..... next, a feather duster".....

shorts cost roughly 50$ a week in swap.... longs pay tad over 35......

average weekly atr is around 200 pips..... 1 standard lot would be lookin at 2k......

wouldn't surprise me if ranged +/- 1000 pips from .8900 next year.....h
//-----

hot air rises......

average weekly atr is around 200 pips..... 1 standard lot would be lookin at 2k......

wouldn't surprise me if ranged +/- 1000 pips from .8900 next year.....

hmmmmm..... that sounds strangely familiar......h

//-----

it would not surprise me if the pound improved considerably next year..... the gbpusd will probably be one of the few where i occasionally short the dollar..... whether short or long, gbpusd trades will be quick..... ie, less than 10 days......h

//-----

my long time view on the usdjpy has not changed...... still lookin for 148...... subject to change of course......h

the eurgbp pays or costs roughly 16$ a pip for us in the states..... average atr is around 130 pips a week.......

last weekly zigzag was down...... weekly trend is down...... i'm short......

currently in the hole here but plan on giving these eurgbp trades plenty of rope....... course, not enough rope to hang me.......h
//-----

Subscribed, looking forward to following your journey in 2014. I think your logic expressed here is similar to mine. I'm looking for GBP and NZD to be the big movers in 2014 based on CB policy but shorting USD for too long isn't wise IMO, 10 day max like you said might be a good idea. Maybe look for GBP and NZD longs every time USDX comes off a long term swing high. Good luck.

//----

hey numbnuts...... thanks......

the nzd is one of my favorite currencies..... the positive swap helps cover my pullin-the-trigger-to-quick errors.....

have been studyin on the eurnzd..... expecting a +/- 1500 pips next year......h
//----

hey dear.... long time
Good to see you exploring explorer too





P.S.
rarest of the rare times i trade such high TF's like monthy. EG on W1 TF looks like well SUP'd by 100SMA as of now. May be a load shorts on a bit of retrace up (personally sidelines as of now)

//----

hey saint..... i'm kinda takin a break from trading during december also.....

yeah eg is on my radar screen..... thought it might make visit .8500 but now not sure..... keep expecting the ecb to come out with a plan that would rock the euro.....

speakin of euro, decided to test the eurnzd waters..... daily peak to trough had been roughly 10 bars....... lately it's been 4 or less..... as the daily coils tighten, the pent up energy increases.....

sooner or later the ecb is going to let some air out of it.....h
//------

not in it yet.....

current gbpcad monthly zigzag, 1973, is well over twice it's average of 782...... and that average would be much less without the 1973.... so it must be discounted.....

current retrace from high is 282 pips.....

average weekly atr is roughly 270 pips.... daily atr is close to 100......

a 50% retrace of last month would fall in the 1.7 area......

any short trade would be a technical trade as it will be a risky counter trend...... fundamentally speakin, the gbp probably has a edge over the cad , as seen in the latest commitment of traders from marc......

this week's calendar is flat full of gbp potential movers.....

and again, not in it yet..... subject to change..... counter trend short's only...... maximum 5 mini lots total..... 100 pip targets...... easy to see it at 1.76 ......h
//----

not in it yet.....

last weekly zigzag is down..... average weekly zigzag length is 474, current length is 459.... 83 pip retrace.....

average weekly atr is a mite over 200..... daily is 70......

longs pay swap, shorts charge.....

obvious series of weekly lower lows and lower highs....

+/- 1000 pips is conceivable in 2014.....

longs only..... prefer to enter between here and .71 ..... target's of 1000 pip range ..... adding at every 100 pips up.....

only the breaking of the chf peg would change my view.....

and again, not in it yet......h

//-----

euraud..... not in it yet.....

we are now back to within 1000 pips of the lehman bear stearns days and all that ensued, which included an euraud peak to valley of 10,000 pips....

as mentioned before, the aud is stuck in a chinese finger trap with none other than china itself..... and the eur is staring dead into deflations mirror..... whether to buy or sell would seem an easy choice but for me it's not.....

last weekly and monthly zigzag was up..... 99 pip retrace..... average daily zigzag is 395 pips, current leg is 633..... average weekly atr is 317 ......

my preference would be shorts..... easy to see it +/- 2000 pips from here during 2014.....

targets would be in the 500 pips range..... max lots will be 1 standard lot total......

not in it yet.......h
//----

//---
in it.... as of 23:19 gmt .......

bought nzdchf and usdjpy..... sold gbpcad and eurnzd..... euraud does not interest me at this point.....h

Subscribed h....

//-----

average audusd daily zigzag length is 216 pips, current length is 347 with a 63 pip retrace..... average weekly length is 598 with current length of 937 with the same 63 pip retrace.....

we are approaching 9 weeks of lower lows lower highs...... the possibility of a daily counter trend move exists that could easily over take the 2 lowest shorts.....

have no plans to close anything before next year, these first trades were freebee's to set the stage....... but acknowledging the possibility of a counter trend move......

will add shorts every 100 pips down......h

//----

nzdjpy..... in it 1/2 mini lot as a place holder trade..... long..... more will follow after the 1/1/2014 .....

average weekly atr is 260 pips.....

average daily zigzag is 219.... current leg is 252... last daily leg up....

average weekly zigzag is 935 and current leg is 1104..... last weekly leg up.....

easy to see a possible +/- 1200 pips in 2014..... the negative swap on short trades is heavy.....

will be lookin for multiple, 1/2 mini lot, nzdjpy trades of the multi month type..... less than 5 mini lots total.... 500 pip targets.....h
//----

hmmmm...... seems my first post on the eurusd from a couple days ago is now missing.... and can't remember what i wrote......

anyway, here is an update..... we are now within 50 pips of lower daily uptrend line..... awesome indicator weakening but still well above 0.....

triple top in the 1.38 area...... it's far too early to say a ceiling is in but we are probably closer to the top than we are to the bottom......

a 50% retrace on the monthly chart would land about 1.29 .....

average weekly atr is around 220 pips..... average weekly zigzag is 514 ...... last weekly leg is up and 516 pips in length......

currently short 1.6 standard lots with plans to double that number over next few weeks...... 500 pip targets.....

uptrend is still technically valid, however after today, fundamentally at risk...... stoploss fuel could turn any fall into a free fall.....h
//-----

//----

there is nothing more inevitable than the inevitable ..... and it's inevitable that the chf peg will one day be broken, either by force or by snb decision..... on that day i would not want to be neither long or short chf......

usdchf update...... bernake lent some helpful federal hot air here....

+/- 2000 weekly equity swings will be normal........h
//-----

eurcad..... not in it yet.....

on the commonly traded pairs, such as the 26 offered by ibfx, there will be on average 8 to 10 macd 0 line crosses a year on the daily chart...... a few of those 0 line crosses will be untradeable...... the rest deserve notice......

on all pairs, there will be about 50% more macd line/macd signal line crosses..... the number of days the macd is above it's signal line will be almost equal to the number of days it's below.....

//-----

both the coppock and kst indicators pegged the eurcad september and november moves.....

past 30 days it has been treading water while the indicators have been weakening.... at the current rate of macd decent , there should be a 0 line cross within 3 weeks....

will this 0 line cross be tradable...... not sure...... it would be better if we had a quick reversal to the 1.467 area which might set up the head a shoulders pattern....

longs cost 3 bucks in swap, while shorts pay 2.31.....

my preference would be shorts from 1.47 ...... with 400 pip targets taking 30 days..... daily atr is 86 and weekly is 231......

no rush here......h

//-----