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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #361
  • Dec 25, 2013 1:59pm Dec 25, 2013 1:59pm
Who cares if one monthly or one weekly trend changes, diversify in other pairs and close out trends reversing.
  • #362
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:03pm Dec 25, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting NJaNeer
If you guys think price is random, open up a monthly chart. Now, open a very small position with a few monthly trends. Come back to it once a week to check on it. Profit
You are assuming price continuation of that trend. You could just as easily have sold the bottom or bought the top.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #363
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:05pm Dec 25, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting NJaNeer
Who cares if one monthly or one weekly trend changes, diversify in other pairs and close out trends reversing.
Okay, that works, but you are trading with an awareness that there is some randomization to market movement.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #364
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:10pm Dec 25, 2013 2:10pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} . That analysis, even correct 99% of the time, never gave me any visible advantage. Why? .......... because there are so many factors affecting price movements and their timing............... there is no limit to market inefficiencies
Very true….anything can happen ...at anytime….by any one ….

But there are also opportunities when the more probability are skewed towards one direction because of the possible continuation of the injection of participation that can be spotted by a nimble experienced eye. Is it certain? No. But with a good MM in place can create a good edge to get advantage of that predictability. Only my view.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #365
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:24pm Dec 25, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Very true….anything can happen ...at anytime….by any one …. But there are also opportunities when the more probability are skewed towards one direction because of the possible continuation of the injection of participation that can be spotted by a nimble experienced eye. Is it certain? No. But with a good MM in place can create a good edge to get advantage of that predictability. Only my view.
True, one can reasonably predict the direction, but the main problem is, it sometimes never shows a decent retrace and other times it keeps on making repeated spikes in the opposite direction. One solution to this is spread the buying in several lots and buy only on dips. This again does not warrant good return on investment.

One can make reasonable money playing long term making good analysis and decisions based on fundamentals plus technicals. However, if one wants crazy returns, has no way but switch to scalping. This is where brokers cheat you out of your edge. If you find a solution to that, you got it. Read all the recent changes in forex rules implemented since 2008. They all aim at preventing retail traders from doing certain things, mainly, restricting scalping trades. This is where profit is. More I think about it, more I convince myself on it.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #366
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:46pm Dec 25, 2013 2:46pm
This thread is now becoming very interesting. I like this topic. It is not every day I contribute seriously on many threads. I believe today is the day and this is the thread.

Let me tell you a story about an Indian trader couple who I met few years back in New York. That couple trades with small money (but not very small), lives not a very luxurious but a very decent life on trading. Their technique is very simple. They both wait until ANY market goes either too low or too high. They literally wait for years for this opportunity to present itself. They risk $5,000 on a trade and wait for a year or two. Most of the time they off load bulk of their position for anything between $50,000 to $100,000 or take the loss of $5,000 minus the margin. The key, they say, is the wait time and r/r.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #367
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:49pm Dec 25, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} However, if one wants crazy returns, has no way but switch to scalping. This is where brokers cheat you out of your edge. If you find a solution to that, you got it. Read all the recent changes in forex rules implemented since 2008. They all aim at preventing retail traders from doing certain things, mainly, restricting scalping trades. This is where profit is. More I think about it, more I convince myself on it.
I agree with you 100 %, I think scalping/short term is more predictable then long term. Long terms, because of time, many factors can influence the direction and the predictability…...

In scalping, I can feel/predict the participation (including the trapped one) of money coming into the market and if I read it right and kept my patience at bay, I can double my risk in a matter of minutes…a few trades like that a day and I am talking….only my view
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #368
  • Dec 25, 2013 2:57pm Dec 25, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting milam
{quote} I agree with you 100 %, I think scalping/short term is more predictable then long term. Long terms, because of time, many factors can influence the direction and the predictability…... In scalping, I can feel/predict the participation (including the trapped one) of money coming into the market and if I read it right and kept my patience at bay, I can double my risk in the arch of minutes…a few trades like that a day and I am talking….only my view
How do you deal with high spread cost? I mean, if one is scalping for 10 pips, about 4 pips go to brokers. That is 40%. The best way for me to deal with this is to scalp when market is very very volatile. Stops 2/3 pips and tps 20 pips. Two attempts max. Gain 10% or lose 2% or 3% in two attempts.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #369
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:03pm Dec 25, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote}...However, if one wants crazy returns, has no way but switch to scalping.
Great to see you here Chicky. Well, FX environment has became recently subject to momentum trading and quite hard to distungish a trending move from a fake out one. I read recently an article about Quartly and monthly options , the writer point to a chart shows the recent spike in Weekly options volume. He then concludes that big money managers and coporates with exposures to currency fluctuation are now favoring the weekly options for their low price and the directless trend moves. He actually claim that these money managers who are playing millions of dollars are getting owned on the way ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #370
  • Edited 6:54pm Dec 25, 2013 3:05pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} How do you deal with high spread cost? I mean, if one is scalping for 10 pips, about 4 pips go to brokers. That is 40%. The best way for me to deal with this is to scalp when market is very very volatile. Stops 2/3 pips and tps 20 pips. Two attempts max. Gain 10% or lose 2% or 3% in two attempts.
That also make sense to me, I need to try it..

With my method, a cost more that 1.2 pip starts to get harder (risk 5 for 10), Oanda has 1.2 spread (but watch them), with Pepperstone, spread and commission also about 1.2( and they seem more serious, need to watch them at the end of the day, which is ok…..)

EDIT: also try CMC Markets and Hirose (around 0.8 spread EU)
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #371
  • Dec 25, 2013 3:14pm Dec 25, 2013 3:14pm
Quoting Chicky
This thread is now becoming very interesting. I like this topic. It is not every day I contribute seriously on many threads. I believe today is the day and this is the thread. Let me tell you a story about an Indian trader couple who I met few years back in New York. That couple trades with small money (but not very small), lives not a very luxurious but a very decent life on trading. Their technique is very simple. They both wait until ANY market goes either too low or too high. They literally wait for years for this opportunity to present itself....
good story and system
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #372
  • Dec 25, 2013 9:23pm Dec 25, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting Chicky
This thread is now becoming very interesting. I like this topic. It is not every day I contribute seriously on many threads. I believe today is the day and this is the thread. Let me tell you a story about an Indian trader couple who I met few years back in New York. That couple trades with small money (but not very small), lives not a very luxurious but a very decent life on trading. Their technique is very simple. They both wait until ANY market goes either too low or too high. They literally wait for years for this opportunity to present itself....
Well now, finally some people are starting to get it......
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #373
  • Dec 26, 2013 2:28am Dec 26, 2013 2:28am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Holy crap Turveyd, what did you do that fella?

He read what the great milenko or something, says about me and believes it all to be real and continued his fight to get me banned.

What he doesn't realise that he is a totally mad freak of a mountain biking site who's so obsessed with, actually creared a website with 100's of my quotes lol, which got him banned, strangely won't meet me for a bike ride lol

Nutters everywhere these days.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #374
  • Dec 26, 2013 2:38am Dec 26, 2013 2:38am
Chicky is coming over to scalping, it's hard work the spread is a pain cost me $6000 estimated over the years, as i'm down $2000 I'd be up nicely here.


You haven't got to scalp for 10 pips, trade gbpaud frequent 30 to 40 pip moves and the odd 100 pip moves, makes the sub 3pip spread worth it.


Crack it and your rich,crack H4 and you might make 20% per year, why waste your time on anything else.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #375
  • Dec 26, 2013 2:55am Dec 26, 2013 2:55am
Have you looked at a monthly in a while...
10 years with some only changing direction two or three times.. If you can't pick the direction in 3 years, you probably need to let FX go.

1. http://charts.mql5.com/3/422/eurjpy-...orporation.png

2. http://charts.mql5.com/3/422/audnzd-...orporation.png

Quoting Chicky
This thread is now becoming very interesting. I like this topic. It is not every day I contribute seriously on many threads. I believe today is the day and this is the thread. Let me tell you a story about an Indian trader couple who I met few years back in New York. That couple trades with small money (but not very small), lives not a very luxurious but a very decent life on trading. Their technique is very simple. They both wait until ANY market goes either too low or too high. They literally wait for years for this opportunity to present itself....

Yes yes, I love some positive interest holds. AUD/CHF looking very attractive at the moment.
  • #376
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:03am Dec 26, 2013 3:03am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} He read what the great milenko or something, says about me and believes it all to be real and continued his fight to get me banned. What he doesn't realise that he is a totally mad freak of a mountain biking site who's so obsessed with, actually creared a website with 100's of my quotes lol, which got him banned, strangely won't meet me for a bike ride lol Nutters everywhere these days.
I formed my opinion of you well before I stumbled onto TGM's posts regarding you. His words are forever apt. Everyone who sees how much of a dim bulb you are is a "troll" or "nutter", all the while you fumble your words and sentences. You've barely made a coherent sentence on this forum in all of your time here. Go away. I'm just waiting on the day the light brightens and you look back at your posts, or you manage to undo the child-locks on the cupboard and we never hear your infant ramblings again. I'm still waiting on that xmas miracle. So, it looks like you made some buddies. Good for you T. You need all the help you can get.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #377
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:21am Dec 26, 2013 3:21am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} I formed my opinion of you well before I stumbled onto TGM's posts
Im pretty sure no one cares. Stick to trading, it suits you better.
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #378
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:32am Dec 26, 2013 3:32am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} Im pretty sure no one cares. Stick to trading, it suits you better.
Get lost Cindy. You are just as worthless, regardless of username.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #379
  • Edited 3:48am Dec 26, 2013 3:35am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Get lost Cindy. You are just as worthless, regardless of username.
Yea but this ones much more fun

Keep the faith nubcake, no matter how shitty things seem, the sword has two sides. You'll be fine man.

EDIT; added comma before nubcake craps his pantz
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #380
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:57am Dec 26, 2013 3:57am
Can somebody prove to me that the market is truly random? You know, in such a fashion so as to not characterize everything as random?

I go by this axiom: no matter how sound your premises, and how rigorous your line of argument is extending from them, sooner or later they will lead you to a conclusion that is not the case!

(Of course to prove this axiom false is to prove it true and vice-versa)

Study of probabilities shows that a true coin can come up heads 33 times in a row and still be truly random. Just not as often as two times in a row.

So how can you know when something you observe but do not cause is not happening in a random fashion?

On the other hand, just because the market is not random does not mean that it is predictable.

The wind can shift at any time, but for centuries men have sailed the seas using it alone.

That that is, is. That that is not, is not...
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