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  • #71,101
  • Dec 23, 2013 3:37pm Dec 23, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting teddybomber
I'd say the reason it went up is because people are closing out their shorts from October. It will be going down to new lows again, imho.
Interesting !!! what do you think are the odds ? Im pretty sure theres a lot of bets out there for both bullish and bearish.
  • #71,102
  • Dec 23, 2013 3:48pm Dec 23, 2013 3:48pm
I believe we are very close to a high % short set up on AUD/USD. Although I do think it may get supported more than NZD/USD and gain against the NZD, so might not fall a lot.

We'll see how it develops.
  • #71,103
  • Dec 23, 2013 4:22pm Dec 23, 2013 4:22pm
Look out below!
  • #71,104
  • Dec 23, 2013 5:30pm Dec 23, 2013 5:30pm
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and all the best for the New Year
to all.
Hopefully see/read all next year.
  • #71,105
  • Dec 23, 2013 9:19pm Dec 23, 2013 9:19pm
What is fundamentally dragging the AUD down? .. can understand 1.10 to 95...but from there I am lost. An arse face saying we would like the AUD down gets away with it?? makes no sense to me !!

Hey! i want a million dollars .... waiting waiting waiting waiting waiting ///nothing... oh! , but RBA wants (does nothing) a lower aud and has it? any economist here or smart person who can explain this?

It went to 89 , what is the possible motivation that can take it to 85? Technical? well no, it is bottoming again (3 bottom) in the same area. Common sense? no common sense shows that every time it rains it stops,.... every thing that falls hard , goes up for a while (before) coming back down again..

Taper? it seems to me taper was already priced in..anyway., wtf do i know
  • #71,106
  • Edited 9:58pm Dec 23, 2013 9:30pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting thewriter30
What is fundamentally dragging the AUD down? .. can understand 1.10 to 95...but from there I am lost. An arse face saying we would like the AUD down gets away with it?? makes no sense to me !! Hey! i want a million dollars .... waiting waiting waiting waiting waiting ///nothing... oh! , but RBA wants (does nothing) a lower aud and has it? any economist here or smart person who can explain this? It went to 89 , what is the possible motivation that can take it to 85? Technical? well no, it is bottoming again (3 bottom) in the same area. Common sense?...
zoom out look at weekly, daily and monthly charts. Price sometimes need time and takes time. things don't move without volume/liquidity such as during high impact fundamental events for volatility.

Look at AUDUSD when it was back in 2000-2009. Price can move and do whatever it wants. and important everything takes time or a real catalyst..

fundamentally, US has been releasing consistent and positive data, that's a poor sign for USD's crosses.

But on the other hand, EURUSD and GBPUSD is hovering near year high. But AUD near year low, as AUD lost stance as it was a commodity currency and high liquidity and previous hedging volume on gold over the decade has pulled out since the plunge from 1520.. And emerging market currencies and commodity pairs has lost big time vs USD, EUR and GBP. look at EURAUD and GBPAUD from its earlier FEB's until now.. then u realize how much AUD has lost in this game.

Retracement takes time and counter-trend, reversal very hard.

now is festive week, liquidity is very very poor, market tend to range and monotone or just move 1 direction.
  • #71,107
  • Dec 23, 2013 9:38pm Dec 23, 2013 9:38pm
China 7 day repo rate climbing from 4.18% to 6.90% .. someone's in for a costly xmas ..
  • #71,108
  • Dec 23, 2013 9:48pm Dec 23, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting 5percent
{quote} zoom out look at weekly, daily and monthly charts. Price sometimes need time and takes time. things don't move without volume/liquidity such as during high impact fundamental events for volatility. Look at AUDUSD when it was back in 2000-2009. Price can move and do whatever it wants. and important everything takes time or a real catalyst.. fundamentally, US has been releasing consistent and positive data, that's a poor sign for USD's crosses. But on the other hand, EURUSD and GBPUSD is hovering near year high. But AUD near year low, as AUD...
Doctor, thanks, at least we get some discussions going on here (intent of the forum right?) I looked just now at 2000, but that was the IT bubble so again, differnet conditions right? like the 2007 fall....
But i guess there maybe no room for an up leg just yet... it may take it to go to 88 again to finally do it...
  • #71,109
  • Dec 23, 2013 10:01pm Dec 23, 2013 10:01pm
Welp, I got stopped out...back to the drawing board!
  • #71,110
  • Dec 23, 2013 10:20pm Dec 23, 2013 10:20pm
Quoting 5percent
{quote} i have no idea mate. u can see weekly closing for direction. 0.8909-0.8900 has provided support before the fomc plunge to 0.8820/40. 0.8909-0.8900 is one of the support channel/level. It acts as a immediate pivot. Weekly's wick or demand/supply pin might see a re-test of a higher lo or lower high if a retracement is favored, that's technical only. All technical are prone to fundamental's volatility and catalyst where price may move faster and random in price action then any technical pov. Rule of retracement: Trend-line cuts - > Slow down...
Now let my chart do the talking, to know more from my pov on AUDUSD, check my past replies and sync with your own chart each moves.

this is a 4 hour chart. Check the rules of retracement.
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  • #71,111
  • Dec 23, 2013 10:24pm Dec 23, 2013 10:24pm
Quoting Jason W
Welp, I got stopped out...back to the drawing board!
ya that was a tight stop loss, I think if you want to do the trade long term you have to give it some room. But I understand cutting your losses early is ideal in general. good job regardless
  • #71,112
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:23pm Dec 23, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting thewriter30
What is fundamentally dragging the AUD down? .. can understand 1.10 to 95...but from there I am lost. An arse face saying we would like the AUD down gets away with it?? makes no sense to me !! Hey! i want a million dollars .... waiting waiting waiting waiting waiting ///nothing... oh! , but RBA wants (does nothing) a lower aud and has it? any economist here or smart person who can explain this? It went to 89 , what is the possible motivation that can take it to 85? Technical? well no, it is bottoming again (3 bottom) in the same area. Common sense?...
Because I am a simple man, I will put it simply for you. 8 years ago the Labour Government came to power. It inherited a strong economy & lotsa loot in the bank. Plus the mining income was colossal at that time. The rest of the world was in shitters ditch with leaky gumboots. The Labour Gov't spent all the loot. Borrowed to the hilt & spent all that too. We have booted the Labour Gov't out but now have a weak economy & relatively poor mining income. Now the land of OZ is the one in shitters ditch with leaky gumboots. Gonna take a few years to set the books right.
Money Makes Money
  • #71,113
  • Dec 23, 2013 11:39pm Dec 23, 2013 11:39pm
yes, that is a good point, kiwioz, thanks. i guess that all translates to 89 us cents per AUD dollars
  • #71,114
  • Dec 24, 2013 12:24am Dec 24, 2013 12:24am
Quoting thewriter30
yes, that is a good point, kiwioz, thanks. i guess that all translates to 89 us cents per AUD dollars
Yes & will probably translate to 0.80 in a month or 2.............
Money Makes Money
  • #71,115
  • Dec 24, 2013 12:35am Dec 24, 2013 12:35am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Because I am a simple man, I will put it simply for you. 8 years ago the Labour Government came to power. It inherited a strong economy & lotsa loot in the bank. Plus the mining income was colossal at that time. The rest of the world was in shitters ditch with leaky gumboots. The Labour Gov't spent all the loot. Borrowed to the hilt & spent all that too. We have booted the Labour Gov't out but now have a weak economy & relatively poor mining income. Now the land of OZ is the one in shitters ditch with leaky gumboots. Gonna take a few years...

So eloquently put.
Gotta go, Santas coming.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #71,116
  • Dec 24, 2013 1:01am Dec 24, 2013 1:01am
I must admit im on the wrong side of this trade....the fundamentals are just so overpowering. In any event if i believe that Usd/Cad is bullish and that the USD/CAd is directly inversely correlated to the Aud/Usd (almost 100%) then A/U is going down as U/C is moving up.
Cutting my losses, better 26 pips than 100+ , So sick
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  • #71,117
  • Dec 24, 2013 1:08am Dec 24, 2013 1:08am
Quoting bogus
{quote} So eloquently put. Gotta go, Santas coming.
Geeeeeee Ta. Have a great Xmas..Cheers
Money Makes Money
  • #71,118
  • Dec 24, 2013 1:16am Dec 24, 2013 1:16am
Accumulate short. Let it run through the holiday.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #71,119
  • Dec 24, 2013 1:41am Dec 24, 2013 1:41am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Geeeeeee Ta. Have a great Xmas..Cheers

You too mate.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #71,120
  • Dec 26, 2013 1:06am Dec 26, 2013 1:06am
We may have a tiny bit of upside left before our next dip. We barely pierced the 50% fib at 8943 and couldn't hold it. I wouldn't be surprised if we had more consolidation and no rally before the inevitable dip.
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