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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #201
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:36am Dec 21, 2013 8:36am
Quoting diceman555
Im sure longer time frame trading fits some peoples mindset. I trade 1 min charts .everything that happens on 1 houur or 4 hour happens on a 1min tf.only much quicker.i dont personally trade candlesticks.i trade the price.my entries are taken from reading the pattern in the quotes. Yu mention trends.again this is seen in the eyes of the beholder.a 10 to 15 pip move for me is a trend.with a 4 or 5 pip risk.im working on a 2.1 to 3.1rr. Rhe random behavour is the journey from one atraction poinr to another.those 2 points are not random. Alittle like...

We are on the same boat, a 15-20pip micro trend, is a lot easier to spot and much more accurate then a H4 trend, same risk same return.

Here is my chart I've been working on, Arrows are entry points, horizontal lines and Barrier Levels I call them, as no interest in previous S/R doesn't test well enough to be profitable.

If anyone wants the template and the rules there here to :- last post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7169632

There difference is there trading after the event, we are trading ( slightly after unless tick ) in the current!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GA Downtrend.jpg Size: 424 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #202
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:37am Dec 21, 2013 8:37am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think was talking on a candle by candle basis.

Treating M1 as H4, you need 1 M1 method, not just drop in a H4 method.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #203
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:39am Dec 21, 2013 8:39am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Women are not random, they very definitely operate with an end game in mind. You just have be able to quickly identify what that end game is and decide if you want to participate.

End game can instantly change, because and I quote " I had a dream we shouldn't be together, goodbye!" WTF the day before I was moving to be nearer you arggghhhhhhhhhhhh!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #204
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:51am Dec 21, 2013 8:51am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} End game can instantly change, because and I quote " I had a dream we shouldn't be together, goodbye!" WTF the day before I was moving to be nearer you arggghhhhhhhhhhhh!!!
The end game for her did not change. There was a good chance that you were never the only piece on her chess board. Men very rarely are. So, she saw an opportunity to get to her endgame faster and you were sacrificed.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #205
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:52am Dec 21, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} We are on the same boat, a 15-20pip micro trend, is a lot easier to spot and much more accurate then a H4 trend, same risk same return. Here is my chart I've been working on, Arrows are entry points, horizontal lines and Barrier Levels I call them, as no interest in previous S/R doesn't test well enough to be profitable. If anyone wants the template and the rules there here to :- last post. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post7169632 There difference is there trading after the event, we are trading ( slightly...

That is a good template, it shows wave motion, and it gives some objective visual reference points on when to enter.

Nicely done
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #206
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:53am Dec 21, 2013 8:53am
If a trader is trading from a 1 or 4 hour chart.and the price has reached a zone of previous demand.that demand zone will have a range of 15 to 25 pips or so.the 4 hour trader is looking for evidence that demand is still at this level.i can see and trade those early signs of demand.that 20 pip window can be harvest, im trading the accumilation of the demand.this puts me in a favourable position.im scalping the range of accumilation .im in a positive pip count should the demand prove to be stronger.my dumping point is very well defined at the point were price was bought of the lows.

This is just one example of the benifits in trading the now moment
  • #207
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:54am Dec 21, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Treating M1 as H4, you need 1 M1 method, not just drop in a H4 method.
The market is fractal Turv.

The only thing that changes between the time frames are the ranges.

Spend less time feeding the trolls and trying to justify your logic and more time working it.

In the end, a lot less stress and a lot more profits.

Mikk is the king of nutsucks.

You have hit the nail on the head with this guy, just took you a while to get there.

There is no evidence that this guy actually has an account, nevermind has ever taken a trade. For somebody who demands proof but offers nothing, just goes to show you that in his 8 months of supposed trading, 4 of them real, if he even does trade, he is on demo dollars and can't keep one of these accounts open.

Where's the Beef, Mikk?
You little NutSuck!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #208
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:57am Dec 21, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Magix
{quote} The market is fractal Turv. The only thing that changes between the time frames are the ranges. Spend less time feeding the trolls and trying to justify your logic and more time working it. In the end, a lot less stress and a lot more profits. Mikk is the king of nutsucks. You have hit the nail on the head with this guy, just took you a while to get there. There is no evidence that this guy actually has an account, nevermind has ever taken a trade. For somebody who demands proof but offers nothing, just goes to show you that in his 8 months...
They call it phishing where I am from. The newbie has no system so they come in all obnoxious and annoying and try to goad someone into revealing their methods.

It's a common thing they do. I think Mikk has some entertainment value.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #209
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:03am Dec 21, 2013 9:03am
Quoting jmn5611
It's a common thing they do. I think Mikk has some entertainment value.
Maybe as an Organ Grinders Monkey, sure.

Drop a little red hat on him and play the music of his people, and watch the little fella beg for pocket change.

Mikk should continue his quest in the "Rookie Talk", section. Even then, anybody who can manage to make their way through one of his rants would question his merits as a Newbie.

Stamp this nutsuck with the word, TROLL...

Carry on with your life.

Only one thing will be sure if you don't...you will eventually become one of the targets of his rants.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #210
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:07am Dec 21, 2013 9:07am
Quoting Turveyd
just because a candle closes at high or near plus 100 pips, doesn't mean it has to retrace
You are right it doesn't have to if its total random, yet it does with ~55% accuracy on my big database which contains over 25 million candlesticks from all timeframes, so its way past any random noise caused by random distribution so i have to assume this is evidence that the hammer & shooting star patterns are indeed reversal signallers, and that there is a small edge there.A hidden ineficciency if you will...

Or atleast the fact that they are a part of a bigger picture : head & shoulders , wedge, etc...

I never talk air here, most of my statements are proven with extensive backtests and research.

But i guess we need another thread to discuss the validity of patterns, this thread is getting messy and way offtopic...

Quoting Turveyd
Noise BS to you, is required detail to me, give it time you'll stop seeing it as noise and BS.
For example if you look at the line chart you already filtered out atleast 60% of the noise, since mostly (yet not in all cases) the shadows are also a noise.So by looking only at the close price the majority is filtered out, but its not that confortable and we cant ignore the noise 100% because yet they are junk but a low or a high can also hit our SL and f**k us up badly.

But for prediction or backwards analysis its crucial to get rid of the noise, in the way that you dont hurt the structure of the market.And i belive the close prices are really good,but far from the best.

The other thing you can do is to get a moving average to filter further.Or use mathemathical noise filtering like PipMeUp does:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=435706

The point is that the noise is the randomness while the ineficciency (the setup which actually can make you money) is the nonrandom part, and by removing the noise you get closer and closer to the "Holy Grail" if you will.But if you remove the noise you might remove some of the good stuff too, so its very important to pick the best method.

For example if i`d look only at the close prices, i would miss this great edge which the hammer & shooting star gives, so this makes the line chart very very crude filtering and it makes more harm than good.

Or if you have an audio file and want to remove the background noise, you might hurt the foreground sounds too, that is why its a very delicate procedure.

I hope you understand now my points
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #211
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:13am Dec 21, 2013 9:13am
Quoting Proximus

could u be so kind and post a chart wich resembles "noise" to you ? thnx
  • #212
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:24am Dec 21, 2013 9:24am
Quoting PrymeTyme
{quote} could u be so kind and post a chart wich resembles "noise" to you ? thnx
Its hard to define the noise of the market and what is noise and what is not, since the noise envelops the market entirely, and makes up more than 95% of the market.So the quest is not to find and recognize the noise ,because the noise is in majority, but rather recognize what is NOT noise, and that will be the profitable strategy

Its like if you mix sugar with water in a cup.After you mix it, how you distinguish the sugar from water? It's almost the same hard to find an edge in the forex market like to find the sugar part in the water.You understand me?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is the proportion of noise - edge , you can see that the majority is noise, but its preceded by a hammer you kinda can predict the market.I dont like to use the word "predict" but in some cases its valid
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #213
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:32am Dec 21, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Its hard to define the noise of the market and what is noise and what is not, since the noise envelops the market entirely, and makes up more than 95% of the market.So the quest is not to find and recognize the noise ,because the noise is in majority, but rather recognize what is NOT noise, and that will be the profitable strategy Its like if you mix sugar with water in a cup.After you mix it, how you distinguish the sugar from water? It's almost the same hard to find an edge in the forex market like to find the sugar part in the water.You...
hmm , yea i do understand you..

but to me there is no noise in the markets.. price is in a continous flow advertising istelf all the time to fasciliate a trade, wich is the main purpose of the markets
, therefore its up to everyone to find a location+price action wich adds to the context in someway thus far.. and either participate or not..

to me the left noise of your chart .. is price in a decline with LHs/LLs ... after the Hammer , we are trading sideways / ranging .. (balance)
these movements are crucial information ,, depending if you are in a position and/or u tend to open a position based on these actions.. and based on your plan etc..
  • #214
  • Dec 21, 2013 9:48am Dec 21, 2013 9:48am
Quoting PrymeTyme
{quote} hmm , yea i do understand you.. but to me there is no noise in the markets.. price is in a continous flow advertising istelf all the time to fasciliate a trade, wich is the main purpose of the markets , therefore its up to everyone to find a location+price action wich adds to the context in someway thus far.. and either participate or not.. to me the left noise of your chart .. is price in a decline with LHs/LLs ... after the Hammer , we are trading sideways / ranging .. (balance) these movements are crucial information ,, depending if you...
Well yes we can unpack the market more, and i can find more inefficiencies on that picture than only the hammer, but remember this is an M1 chart, and given that the broker delays, slippage , spread and stoplevel problems we cant really trade 1 pip sized trades, so rather than unpacking the market more we should pack it, thus merging the candles and trade a bigger setup or change TF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is how i would interpret this M1 market, thus for me its untradeable because the position size would be too small and the market lagg would kill me, but if the market would look like this on an M15 chart then it would be a good tradeable opportunity
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #215
  • Edited 11:46am Dec 21, 2013 11:17am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Still awaiting on the proof that you've traded your account upto 10K and not down to 10K!!
I meant close to 10 000 hours of trading related activities. Edited the post. I would NEVER brag with such a miserable sum of money which btw doesn't mean anything as it's not % per some period.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #216
  • Edited 1:24pm Dec 21, 2013 11:28am | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} They call it phishing where I am from. The newbie has no system so they come in all obnoxious and annoying and try to goad someone into revealing their methods. It's a common thing they do. I think Mikk has some entertainment value.
Yeah, yei, funny comments - keep up.

I bet, Maggie is having fun too - Turv is with him now!!!

What's it gonna be?... New muppet-show like 'The Muppets: Reunion'? - Dunno for sure as I don't see Mag's crap anymore...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #217
  • Edited 11:47am Dec 21, 2013 11:33am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Well yes we can unpack the market more, and i can find more inefficiencies on that picture than only the hammer, but remember this is an M1 chart, and given that the broker delays, slippage , spread and stoplevel problems we cant really trade 1 pip sized trades, so rather than unpacking the market more we should pack it, thus merging the candles and trade a bigger setup or change TF. {image} This is how i would interpret this M1 market, thus for me its untradeable because the position size would be too small and the market lagg would kill...
Don't even think about it - candlestick patterns are not reliable on LTF. Though, this has nothing to do with your so called 'extent of randomness' - these are just different TFs, thus, different approaches.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #218
  • Dec 21, 2013 12:19pm Dec 21, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Don't even think about it - candlestick patterns are not reliable on LTF. Though, this has nothing to do with your so called 'extent of randomness' - these are just different TFs, thus, different approaches.
Yes lower time frame patterns are weak.but there are gains.i can see the liquidity gaps.thats one example of enifeciancy in market.there are many on lower tf.i would say the market is more efficient with higher tf.the market corrects itself very quickly.seen on quotes and tick.1min
  • #219
  • Dec 21, 2013 1:44pm Dec 21, 2013 1:44pm
Yet another thread at FF that turned into a pathetic me-pissing-far contest...
I feel so sorry for redlion. Unsubscribed.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #220
  • Dec 21, 2013 2:02pm Dec 21, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Mikkk01
Troll the Troll

Where's the Beef, NutSuck?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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