Menu

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #161
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:24am Dec 21, 2013 6:24am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} They work, Turv, work on HTF very well, although, I don't like both HTF and candlestick patterns...

No sorry 100% definately, reading candle sticks patterns is a trap to take your money, they only work by oure coincidence some times, like 50% might aswell flip a coin.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #162
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:25am Dec 21, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Have you tried it or are you just talking in air?
I trade M5 and M1 only. Wanna make sure go to Genesis thread...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #163
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:25am Dec 21, 2013 6:25am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No you've proved candle stick patterns are random you or Pips me proved M1 and H4 are both equally random. I don't use candle stick BS I never have or will for this reason. But then you talk about trading M1 like you would H4 if you where trying to use candlestick patterns, kinda confuses me, you prove there random and you keep using them.
I never said they are totally random, because there is always some hidden inefficiency, and because of that cause, the inefficiency becomes more visible on higher timeframe than on lower because the candlesticks merge and it adds up.

Just by looking ad the doji distribution this can be understood very well, and so as the trend, i`ve never seen a good trend on an M1 which would fit into my screen, its more noise and random stuff, but as you add up candlesticks, or zoom out on M1 you can see nice structures to form from that random mess.

So the higher the timeframe the more edge is visible.Not saying that on M1 you cant experience that, but its much much harder to detect.
And for that reason i only trade on M15 or higher
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #164
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:27am Dec 21, 2013 6:27am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No sorry 100% definately, reading candle sticks patterns is a trap to take your money, they only work by oure coincidence some times, like 50% might aswell flip a coin.
You may not bother saying 'sorry'.

If I write something I know exactly what I'm talking about.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #165
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:27am Dec 21, 2013 6:27am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Have you tried it or are you just talking in air?
Thasts the line I was on about he quoted there 100% BS, if you try using H4 candle ofcourse the SL will be to close.


Ever consider, it's your method that's flawed.


P.s. my account is at new highs, from trading M1.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #166
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:30am Dec 21, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Thasts the line I was on about he quoted there 100% BS, if you try using H4 candle ofcourse the SL will be to close. Ever consider, it's your method that's flawed. P.s. my account is at new highs, from trading M1.
And how you place the stoploss then.The M1 barely moves more than the stoplevel of the pair, so that will cause you to trade negative risk reward ratios which will hurt your account after a while...?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #167
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:34am Dec 21, 2013 6:34am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I never said they are totally random, because there is always some hidden inefficiency, and because of that cause, the inefficiency becomes more visible on higher timeframe than on lower because the candlesticks merge and it adds up. Just by looking ad the doji distribution this can be understood very well, and so as the trend, i`ve never seen a good trend on an M1 which would fit into my screen, its more noise and random stuff, but as you add up candlesticks, or zoom out on M1 you can see nice structures to form from that random mess. So...
No there random, so you went through all that proving there 99% rasndom and still trying to use the remaining 1%.

The time they start or end be it H4 H1 or M1 could be part of the way through a move therefore random.


Go over to my strangely M15 journal, not that i traded M15 for long,just posted a M1 chart highlighting GA's current direction all friday very nicely.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #168
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:35am Dec 21, 2013 6:35am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} I trade M5 and M1 only. Wanna make sure go to Genesis thread...
No i`m sorry i`m not into *9999x indicators on the chart* types of systems, i try to keep things simple yet constructive and profitable.Indicators will lose in the long term thats a fact.

But i think i will open my own trading system thread later just to enlighten a few people here with my innovative ideas.I dont know how you trade guys but i`m sure its not the good way.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #169
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:38am Dec 21, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} And how you place the stoploss then.The M1 barely moves more than the stoplevel of the pair, so that will cause you to trade negative risk reward ratios which will hurt your account after a while...?
What are you talking about, how does M1 barely move, if D1 moves 50pips guess what M1 moves 50 pips to.


Stop using candlestick logic, its BS.

Seriously check the end of my thread out, current method, noise and sub trends are exploitable.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #170
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:41am Dec 21, 2013 6:41am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No i`m sorry i`m not into *9999x indicators on the chart* types of systems, i try to keep things simple yet constructive and profitable.Indicators will lose in the long term thats a fact. But i think i will open my own trading system thread later just to enlighten a few people here with my innovative ideas.I dont know how you trade guys but i`m sure its not the good way.
2sma's and 2 envelopes on mine, all indicators test badly to, better than tea leaves i mean candle sticks.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #171
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:42am Dec 21, 2013 6:42am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No i`m sorry i`m not into *9999x indicators on the chart* types of systems, i try to keep things simple yet constructive and profitable.Indicators will lose in the long term thats a fact. But i think i will open my own trading system thread later just to enlighten a few people here with my innovative ideas.I dont know how you trade guys but i`m sure its not the good way.
You know what?

I don't give a damn to what you think. You wrote bullshit and has no proof of it - you're just a muppet.

I hope nobody will buy your unjustified crap so you'll never manage to 'enlighten' anybody with your nonsense.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #172
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:44am Dec 21, 2013 6:44am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No there random, so you went through all that proving there 99% rasndom and still trying to use the remaining 1%. The time they start or end be it H4 H1 or M1 could be part of the way through a move therefore random. Go over to my strangely M15 journal, not that i traded M15 for long,just posted a M1 chart highlighting GA's current direction all friday very nicely.
Oh, then if you think that 99% has more impact than the 1%, then why do you even bother trading?

If you use indicators or other classical, yet wrong, systems, how are they predicting the price or reading the data from that random mess.If you say that the 99% randomness is so important, that means that all price action theories are BS, there is no support, resistance, divergence, chart patterns, candlestick patterns, indicators.They are all illusions because its just a random mess.

Yet you claim that you do make money with it? How you explain that, to make money from a random enviroment? The only explanation for me is that you are exploiting the ineficciency of that 1%, so if you might think that that 99% is the important piece, when infact the 1% is that you are exploining.

But the drawback of the indicator and the mechanical systems are that you only hit that 1% randomly, a stochastic or a PSAR will only read its algorithm, and wheather it hits that 1% then you make money but the problem with that is that you only hit that 1% when the algorithm dictates it.

So that looks to me as you make money randomly too, with luck or other methods, but not profitable in the long term.

Most succesful traders use maximum a few moving averages, nothing more.And hunt for that 1% with their knowledge, fundamentals, or other methods, and dont become blinded by all the nice and good looking indicator BS.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #173
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:45am Dec 21, 2013 6:45am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No i`m sorry i`m not into *9999x indicators on the chart* types of systems, i try to keep things simple yet constructive and profitable.Indicators will lose in the long term thats a fact. But i think i will open my own trading system thread later just to enlighten a few people here with my innovative ideas.I dont know how you trade guys but i`m sure its not the good way.
Don't bother answering for us, as we have no way to tell if your lying or not but.......


Are you profitable ? If so enough ?

How long have you been trying to use this method ?

Do you really think it will make the big money your after ?

Would you be better off starting from scratch ?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #174
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:49am Dec 21, 2013 6:49am
Quoting Turveyd
Stop using candlestick logic, its BS.
Turv, candlestick patterns ain't BS.

Have you tried them?
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #175
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:50am Dec 21, 2013 6:50am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Oh, then if you think that 99% has more impact than the 1%, then why do you even bother trading? If you use indicators or other classical, yet wrong, systems, how are they predicting the price or reading the data from that random mess.If you say that the 99% randomness is so important, that means that all price action theories are BS, there is no support, resistance, divergence, chart patterns, candlestick patterns, indicators.They are all illusions because its just a random mess. Yet you claim that you do make money with it? How you explain...
And the circles continue.

Candles are randomly formed, the market is far from random thankfully, there are better ways to trade than candles or indicators, but they require detail, which you can't see, because your against M1.

Look at the chart last page of my thread, rules where posted last night to, drop your preconcieved M1 ideas and think about it for a while.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #176
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:54am Dec 21, 2013 6:54am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} What are you talking about, how does M1 barely move, if D1 moves 50pips guess what M1 moves 50 pips to. Stop using candlestick logic, its BS. Seriously check the end of my thread out, current method, noise and sub trends are exploitable.
I`m sorry but i cant see the market otherwise, its too discrete, its data comes in ticks every 1-3 seconds, which get constructed in candlesticks.Even if i look at the line chart which is smoothened by the highs and lows i still see those fluctuations which recurr in every TF, but the higher you go the less frequent they are because they are now contained in the sticks and not in the structure of the high TF.So in that sense the high timeframe is also a good noise filter.

Yes i understand what you mean, they all must move the same amount, but the structures are not the same size!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 34 KB


For example ,look at the picture, what a nice upswing you got there on M1, would you trade that?

I dont think so because even if it was that nice, it was only a small 6 pip move, you cant even place a normal stoploss for it.I have a 4 pip stoplevel, if at the beginning i`d put the SL 5 pip away, it would be a 1.2 RR situation, still very bad since many of traders wont trade anything less than 2:1
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #177
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 6:56am Dec 21, 2013 6:56am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Turv, candlestick patterns ain't BS. Have you tried them?
Sorry but yes they are, its about groups of candles, especially on M1 or M5.

Okay look at a support area, say gu 1.6000 markets got buyers so the candles are generally have long wicks as there not closing at the bottom, but some will close at the bottom, just cause at that second it closed it was at the low, doesnt mean it will break support at all.

Everyone how moves away from candles and indfucators Dr oes a lot better.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #178
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 7:00am Dec 21, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m sorry but i cant see the market otherwise, its too discrete, its data comes in ticks every 1-3 seconds, which get constructed in candlesticks.Even if i look at the line chart which is smoothened by the highs and lows i still see those fluctuations which recurr in every TF, but the higher you go the less frequent they are because they are now contained in the sticks and not in the structure of the high TF.So in that sense the high timeframe is also a good noise filter. Yes i understand what you mean, they all must move the same amount,...

Seriously, click on my name, threads,M15 journal, last page or 2 give that a read.

On tablet not at home, so can't easily post a link.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #179
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 7:00am Dec 21, 2013 7:00am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Sorry but yes they are, its about groups of candles, especially on M1 or M5. Okay look at a support area, say gu 1.6000 markets got buyers so the candles are generally have long wicks as there not closing at the bottom, but some will close at the bottom, just cause at that second it closed it was at the low, doesnt mean it will break support at all. Everyone how moves away from candles and indfucators Dr oes a lot better.
Hey, TURV!

I'm not your candlestick guide - ain't gonna explain how they work. HTF isn't for me, neither it is for you [as I see]. BUT why, the hell, are you saying stuff you have no idea about?
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #180
  • Quote
  • Dec 21, 2013 7:04am Dec 21, 2013 7:04am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m sorry but i cant see the market otherwise, its too discrete, its data comes in ticks every 1-3 seconds, which get constructed in candlesticks.Even if i look at the line chart which is smoothened by the highs and lows i still see those fluctuations which recurr in every TF, but the higher you go the less frequent they are because they are now contained in the sticks and not in the structure of the high TF.So in that sense the high timeframe is also a good noise filter. Yes i understand what you mean, they all must move the same amount,...

Just checked, literally just the last post, I put an explaination there last night.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
0 traders viewing now