AUD/USD

Just flip a coin and go with it.

if it can't go down, than ~0.89280 the next level?

Why do you think so?

to me this is up to 91 at least...went down to much...not excuses to keep going down...excuses over for now

wow!! got out of the short real quick

every positions should have a trading plan and expiry factors.

important risk management + stop loss.

shorts should watch their trailing stop in in green or stop loss, to avoid tanking any retracement, short higher value on lower high or pull back of support turns resistance tested then only its better.

AUD quietly pulling back across its crosses, with next week holiday season.. liquidity will remain very very poor, and often just ranging or 1 directional. swaps on this level not cool.

Retail shorts on this level without stop loss are prone to tanking if 0.8840 still holds, any reversal/retracement higher.

levels to watch.

0.8950's high of FOMC.

8-9 years EURUSD has gapped up after each christmas's closing then opening, not surprise other pairs do the same. Market will stop trading on Tuesday and Wednesday. spreads will widen.

0.8970 latests lower high pull back failure after drop below 0.8998.

0.8998 any level of support turns resistance.

0.8998-0.9010 is pivot for STR or providing support/resistance.

clear we have 0.9062, the level where steven spoke and aud went plunge 100 pips.

after 0.9062 is 0.9160's latest pull back high from last 2 week.

Tapering theme is off radar for another 6 months to 1 year. Market might slipped back into previous risk-on and risk off mode. where commonly risk on good data is rally, poor data is sell off regardless of currency data. Back track, historically, will find the results. Every year end and new year, market's correlation and theme trading starts to evolved. this year we have seen currencies lost correlation along with other trading instrument like indices/commodities. Risk on and risk off is also no longer trad-able, every individual currency for themselves. Will study the new year 1st and 2nd month to find any commonality and differences.

Dear 5percent,

do you think we will retrace to 0.88850 from here?

i have no idea mate. u can see weekly closing for direction.

0.8909-0.8900 has provided support before the fomc plunge to 0.8820/40. 0.8909-0.8900 is one of the support channel/level. It acts as a immediate pivot. Weekly's wick or demand/supply pin might see a re-test of a higher lo or lower high if a retracement is favored, that's technical only. All technical are prone to fundamental's volatility and catalyst where price may move faster and random in price action then any technical pov.

Rule of retracement:
Trend-line cuts - > Slow down of momentum doesn't mean reversal. Fail to make new lower lo or higher hi. commonly in a daily chart environment or weekly or at least 4 hour.
Down-trend -> A bull pa must close above a bear pa. commonly 4 hour or higher, that's when you get your so called morning star or bullish engulf candlestick formation. A bull PA must have a real content body that closes above a bear content body PA.
Base forming -> Highest to lowest, 23.6 is level of base forming. Forming then can reach for 38.2 then 61.8 before 100.0, failing will re-test support or go lower.
Reclaim 1 level of support in a down-trend - > A break down where support no longer provide resistance. -> commonly known as false break/spring break or overshoot channel.
Confirmation -> Closes above a resistance channel and level, usually the upper fractal on a downtrend and lower fractal on an uptrend.
Closes above confirmation & former range -> expect to move by another 1.6128 value of former range highest - lowest. -> Hard to happen immediately if without a fundamental catalyst. As trailing stops need to be taken out before real ratio starts to change side.
Using of EMAs to see if it crosses above upper fractal on a down-trend -> as it indicates the averages and ratios of positions over time.

Lastly, don't ever take retail positions into consideration. If u want to know how does a market move, ask a chief dealer from a bank.

Level of Support turns resistance commonly found near 38.2 then 61.8. But a major down-trend can be found at 23.6's pull back.

thank you very much!

Not sure why US weakness caused so many pairs to retrace so high. The news was not bad. The Ozzie retrace exceeded my expectations. I did not forsee it to go past the soft target at 0.8900 let alone exceed the extreme target at 0.8915. Needless to say I did not trade the difference.And my Short trade was trggered at 0.89. All good hopefully.
So long as this is not the start of a major retracement, I expect to see 0.8787 next week...........

From my pov, and experience. It's THEME trading.

When EURUSD was at 1.3550 from 1.37-1.38 top's after a series of poor EUR data, and then rate cut to 0.25% then plunge to 1.3300 then halt and consolidated. The theme of rate cut won't be there for a period of time then EURUSD started to retrace higher eventually back to 1.38 before going back to 1.3620's the former resistance channel where price was at 1.36-1.35 for a period of time.

Same for AUD, where it first plunge from 1.0150, where it started a series of CUT, then halt at 0.88 when Cut is unlikely to happen for a while, then AUD retraced higher.

Market has priced in a certain view on tapering, all these while where it pressed heavily on EM currencies and weaker major other than GBP and EUR. As it was talked to happen in SEP. And now it finally happened, there won't be another tapering for awhile. Thus the theme is over. Just like the US GOVT shut down where it weigh heavily on USD, which resulted in AUD trading near 0.97 and USDJPY at 96.50-97.50. But as soon as the theme is over, the currency itself no longer weigh the burden for another period of time.

There's always a theme to be traded, just like when EURUSD was at 1.20 then at 1.24 where draghi emphasized on pointless to short the EURO and will do all it takes to protect EUR, and eurusd lifted up back to 1.30's eventually to this level. Where 1.33-1.37 is considered the mid point for EURUSD for the past 3 years.

AUDUSD suffered a heavy year from gold's crash from upper range of 1520-1800/1900. As it was considered a commodity currency, upon that blow, was the first time AUDUSD lost correlation with gold and others, and important SP 500. Previously SP500 moved hand in hand with AUD, and market move in RISK ON and RISK OFF, meaning even if its US data, if good data is strong rally, poor data is mild rally or sometime none if data is super strong where USD might get a rally instead. On the monthly POV, AUD can still be seen as a double bottom if closed above 0.9000 to confirm a bounce off 8840, just like what happened to GBPUSD when it was at 1.48 twice then bounced back to 1.57 eventually broke out to 1.64.

Thus, we have AUD's 0.97 seen as if it was 1.57, area of confluence of past support turns resistance channel. AUD suffered mostly from GBPAUD and EURAUD where a breakout of 4000-6000 pips were found on this 2 pair since AUD's high this feb/march period.

DareXau
's earlier post on this make an easy view on AUD.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1387509596

Short has it play's field, but so does long, just like EURUSD when short was so favored at 1.3620 and under before 1.3620 was breached and it went to 1.38. Just try to be in the flow of the trend, and respect major r and s. And avoid tanking for too long.

I don't know about you guys, but I am not interested so much in AU. AC is 1000 pips from the lowest it has ever been. I hope we get more selling next week, I will be buying like no tomorrow.

I doubt you will get 1000 pips but at this time 0.8680 looks juicy.........

I opened PAMMs in different currencies. Main currencies - Russian ruble. But I'm opened in USD PAMM too. If who interested, then write to me.

Sorry, should have stated AUD/CHF. I forgot we have two AC's.

To all the guys that want to short this, let me ask you a question. Who do you think is on the other side of your trade ? Through the basic universal laws of supply and demand the traders buying your shorts are they making a smart decision or a bad decision ?
I included a weekly and daily chart you can be the judge.

Same thing appears to apply. My target for this would be 0.7350...........

Hi Kiwi, may I ask why 0.8787 as a target?

Hi timecapsule. Just saw your PM. I will put my reply here too.
The retrace could be over. However my CCI 4H has gone Long positive so another leg up could be possible. I never argue against my 4H CCI. If so my target would be 0.9040. This is also the 61% Fib' retrace.
0.8787 has come up as a DeMark target on the 4H chart if the present retrace is over. If we go up to 0.9040, the next Short target would come in at around 0.8710.
As you said. It's Xmas. So anything could happen........Cheers.

Morning. AU and EA are both at resistance and support respectively. I won't be taking a position until I have confirmation. I've found that the Christmas period is a good time to trade, better than the period after.
Have a great Christmas guys.