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Fair Chance - Slim Chance

  • #141
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:03pm Dec 16, 2013 12:03pm
EURUSD, Monthly, 2013 December 16
Short @ 1.37464 (2x)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, Monthly, 2013 December 16.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #142
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:11pm Dec 16, 2013 12:11pm
Inserted Video

Philip Glass - The Kiss
  • #143
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:13pm Dec 16, 2013 12:13pm
Inserted Video

Philip Glass - The Light (1987)
  • #144
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:15pm Dec 16, 2013 12:15pm
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philip glass violin concerto 2nd movement
  • #145
  • Dec 17, 2013 3:39am Dec 17, 2013 3:39am
Hi Forexcube,


just found this thread :-)

Just started reading (am at page 3 now) - really great


will come back when I finished reading
  • #146
  • Dec 17, 2013 4:41am Dec 17, 2013 4:41am
Another setup to play with
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad jpy.jpg Size: 54 KB
MMMYYYKKK
  • #147
  • Dec 17, 2013 5:50am Dec 17, 2013 5:50am
Quoting myk
Another setup to play with {image}

and where do we place the higher probability?
  • #148
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:28am Dec 17, 2013 7:28am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and where do we place the higher probability?
Both Up n down with stops above n below last high n low in triangle
MMMYYYKKK
  • #149
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:04pm Dec 17, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting myk
{quote} Both Up n down with stops above n below last high n low in triangle
OK, good idea, but thought the thread was all about probability
  • #150
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:11pm Dec 17, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} OK, good idea, but thought the thread was all about probability
well to be very honest was thinking it should break upwards but before posting saw the rates n it was already broken by bears so u can say i saved my face lol
MMMYYYKKK
  • #151
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:23pm Dec 17, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting myk
{quote} well to be very honest was thinking it should break upwards but before posting saw the rates n it was already broken by bears so u can say i saved my face lol
  • #152
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:40pm Dec 17, 2013 12:40pm
Hi Forexcube,

since I use Murrey Math I am very familiar with having probability zones / target zones on my chart

In Murrey Math probability for reversal depends on

a) how many Murrey Math trading lines price took out since last swing low/high
b) the position of price in the Murrey Math "grid"

I do combine this with a special market profile (volume based). Here I do look, where the average Volume price opportunity lies, then calculating Gaussian distribution and standard deviations (SD). Target is to bet on mean reverting, when price reaches the 2 SD zones. One can this combine with Murrey Math perfectly.

Both Murrey Math and Market Profile work best in ranging markets. Strong trends can lead to headache :-)


Both systems should be used in MTF setup



Black swan events like 6 to 10 standard deviations can be seen far more often as one would expect from a Gaussian model. Think, that the distributions in markets (especialy Forex with its sometimes strong fundamentally driven trending moves) do not necessarily follow the Gaussian model but more L-shaped curves (fat tails).


See also here:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ancial-markets
  • #153
  • Dec 19, 2013 9:39am Dec 19, 2013 9:39am
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Vivaldi, L'odio vinto della costanza RV 702 perche lascero
  • #154
  • Dec 19, 2013 9:43am Dec 19, 2013 9:43am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Forexcube, since I use Murrey Math I am very familiar with having probability zones / target zones on my chart In Murrey Math probability for reversal depends on a) how many Murrey Math trading lines price took out since last swing low/high b) the position of price in the Murrey Math "grid" I do combine this with a special market profile (volume based). Here I do look, where the average Volume price opportunity lies, then calculating Gaussian distribution and standard deviations (SD). Target is to bet on mean reverting, when price reaches the...
#152


Hi Infinitus!
Murrey Math are great! No doubt!
I have it also on my monitor ever an anon.
FXcube
  • #155
  • Edited 10:18am Dec 19, 2013 9:56am | Edited 10:18am
GBPUSD, Short @ 1.6350 (3x)
see also #81, #82, #107
  • #156
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:05am Dec 19, 2013 10:05am
GBPUSD, Weekly, 2013 December 19
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD, Weekly, 2013 December 19.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #157
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:08am Dec 19, 2013 10:08am
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Khatia Buniatishvili - Liszt / Schubert Ständchen - Verbier Festival
  • #158
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:10am Dec 19, 2013 10:10am
Quoting Forexcube
USDINR (Monthly) ~53.30, ~49.20, ~44.40 actual: 60.65 - waiting for a retracement (~61.80)? ...maybe then Short?
#96

USDINR, Short @ 62.35 (2x)
  • #159
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:48am Dec 19, 2013 11:48am
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Cecilia Bartoli - Ombra mai fù (Sacrificium - The Art of the Castrati)
  • #160
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:51am Dec 19, 2013 11:51am
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Sacrificium, newest album by Cecilia Bartoli, aria 'Cadro ma qual te miro'
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