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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,001
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:17pm Dec 18, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} correct me if i'm wrong, but i think Gbp/jpy is talking about "sticky" levels... you know, xx.33, xx.49, xx.75, xx.95, and all the 0.25, 0.10, and 0.05 increments/multiples thereof. for example, 169.00, 169.05, 169.10, 169.25, 169.33, 169.50 (+/- several pips), 169.75, 169.95, 170, etc., are all levels whether they are marked or not. the more confluence between the levels, the more significant the level. for example, the xx.00 levels are always big because it is the intersection of the 0.50, 0.25, 0.10, and 0.05 stickies. you need to watch...

oh. thanks for explaining
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  • #10,002
  • Edited 9:11pm Dec 18, 2013 8:57pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} oh. thanks for explaining
look lik the only sticky levels playing right now in g/j are the equity market direction and pound strenght, very likely markets keep rallying from these levels in the next few days cause the fed words and yen weakening but a bullish usdx will cap some gainings to pound and obviously g/j,
looking to short in every overbought indication.
  • #10,003
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:54pm Dec 18, 2013 11:54pm
Continue to go long.......... Even during the long holiday.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #10,004
  • Dec 19, 2013 12:03am Dec 19, 2013 12:03am
Quoting Cowboy11
Continue to go long.......... Even during the long holiday.
Just completed the week correction, so, it will just go....................
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #10,005
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:07am Dec 19, 2013 5:07am
While nothing happens, I was wondering whether any of you guys ever used the Fib Fan feature? While you can move it around anywhere to suit, there are various key levels at the bottom and as we rose up where you can position the base of the fan. As can be seen, it is quite often most predictive as to where obstacles and support exist.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.png Size: 61 KB
  • #10,006
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:09am Dec 19, 2013 7:09am
Quoting Mpt
While nothing happens, I was wondering whether any of you guys ever used the Fib Fan feature? While you can move it around anywhere to suit, there are various key levels at the bottom and as we rose up where you can position the base of the fan. As can be seen, it is quite often most predictive as to where obstacles and support exist. {image}
so with that where do you think GJ head to?
  • #10,007
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:13am Dec 19, 2013 7:13am
Quoting Cowboy11
Continue to go long.......... Even during the long holiday.
180 or higher.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #10,008
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:29am Dec 19, 2013 7:29am
Quoting Cowboy11
{quote} 180 or higher.
Do not agree with you mate.. January will bring a retrace back to 160-162 level... US data is going to be inconsistent in the coming weeks.. I am personally feeling that taper was done prematurely as the FED could have waited for consistent data for next 2 months and then announcing 30 billion cut.
  • #10,009
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:32am Dec 19, 2013 7:32am
Quoting veer2010
{quote} Do not agree with you mate.. January will bring a retrace back to 160-162 level... US data is going to be inconsistent in the coming weeks.. I am personally feeling that taper was done prematurely as the FED could have waited for consistent data for next 2 months and then announcing 30 billion cut.
here we go.. first one....

US initial jobless claims 379k vs 334k exp
  • #10,010
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:41am Dec 19, 2013 7:41am
Let's see, friend.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #10,011
  • Dec 19, 2013 7:47am Dec 19, 2013 7:47am
Quoting Cowboy11
Let's see, friend.
I'm up for it friend.. I am 100% sure about it.. though I am not holding onto a oracle.. :-)
  • #10,012
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:10am Dec 19, 2013 8:10am
Yep, that's right smash, baby....any and all triple "X"'s..
I'm having a good time....my system just revealed a fourth layer to my best trade I try to catch daily.......since I'm a "chart hacker" I swear one can find probabilities that keep showing up at the same time of day, three times a week. More detailed than the usual bank reversals at the start of their business day.
  • #10,013
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:16am Dec 19, 2013 8:16am
Quoting veer2010
{quote} Do not agree with you mate.. January will bring a retrace back to 160-162 level... US data is going to be inconsistent in the coming weeks.. I am personally feeling that taper was done prematurely as the FED could have waited for consistent data for next 2 months and then announcing 30 billion cut.

160-162 seems incredibly far from up here and, all else equal, it would be a nice "gift" as an opportunity to reload longs. I do agree with you that we are data dependent as always and market might have overreacted, especially if you consider the bull run cable has shown over the past few weeks. Same might apply to USD/YEN, as you point out. Also, as usual, when everybody wants to be on the same side of the trade, positioning alone will cause running for the exits at some stage, i.e. a pullback. The extent of that pullback is as always difficult to predict. For now,in the short term, I think that on g/j, the break of 170 brought in some fresh longs and some stops are building up probably below 169.90/80 area. So a sustained break below this level could at least retrace part of or the whole massive move from yesterday. What the market gives quickly, the market can take away just as quickly. More US data later on and also the BOJ overnight might dictate where to next in the next hours/days. GL
  • #10,014
  • Dec 19, 2013 9:25pm Dec 19, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Yep, that's right smash, baby....any and all triple "X"'s.. I'm having a good time....my system just revealed a fourth layer to my best trade I try to catch daily.......since I'm a "chart hacker" I swear one can find probabilities that keep showing up at the same time of day, three times a week. More detailed than the usual bank reversals at the start of their business day.
Why don't you work on my algo with me? We can do some great things. I need someone as clever as you.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #10,015
  • Dec 19, 2013 9:31pm Dec 19, 2013 9:31pm
Going back to August 2008, I can see few correlations which I would like to use now and see where this GJ can head in 2014.
I am going to consider whole number for easier display.

On Aug 2008, GBP/USD was at 1.9600, UJ was at 110 and GJ was at 212


Also, at that time central bank interest rate for GBP was 5% and USD was 2%

The situation now is very clear that the rates are not gonna go up at least until 2015(current GBP rate is 0.5% and USD is almost 0%). What it means? It is very clear and without the rates going up, you can't really have the old levels in GBP/JPY and for that matter even in GBP/USD

So, even if USD/JPY reaches 110 based on FED tapering and a promise to raise rates starting from end of 2015, GBP will be around this level 1.60 and making GBP/JPY trade at max 176.

So, I am thinking that we have a near term top in GBP/JPY or at least in the making with a cap 176.

I am going short on this pair for at least another 6 months - 1 year time.
  • #10,016
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:15pm Dec 19, 2013 10:15pm
Where will it go?

I suspect it will now head towards significant resistance at 173.5 and 174.5 ish. If it can't sustain above there, that would be the trigger for a decent fallback.

On the other hand, if it crawls or gets thrust over that resistance and can also passes through 175.5 unscathed, then it's more than likely cleared all the way to 178/179 and 184, arriving February to March. Then I would expect a fallback to 163.


In a nutshell, 173~174 and 175 is the issue.

But I'll stick my neck out and say 184 ahead of a very long correction to 163.
  • #10,017
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:21pm Dec 19, 2013 10:21pm
D just completed the B wave, it will take few days before the correction come.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #10,018
  • Dec 19, 2013 10:36pm Dec 19, 2013 10:36pm
Quoting veer2010
Going back to August 2008, I can see few correlations which I would like to use now and see where this GJ can head in 2014. I am going to consider whole number for easier display. On Aug 2008, GBP/USD was at 1.9600, UJ was at 110 and GJ was at 212 Also, at that time central bank interest rate for GBP was 5% and USD was 2% The situation now is very clear that the rates are not gonna go up at least until 2015(current GBP rate is 0.5% and USD is almost 0%). What it means? It is very clear and without the rates going up, you can't really have the old...
good luck buddy, ive been looking to short this but not today after boj statement on monetary policy, basically they said,
they will do whatever they can to weaken yen more, they announce tons of new yen printing and gbp is not showing signs
of strong weaking soon.
  • #10,019
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:12pm Dec 19, 2013 11:12pm
Hello

New to this chart made a mistake going short

an it went against me.

Every body talking 173 to 183 etc

Its above 170.8 now

Got longs in now

i suppose open them up an wait
  • #10,020
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:36pm Dec 19, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} good luck buddy, ive been looking to short this but not today after boj statement on monetary policy, basically they said, they will do whatever they can to weaken yen more, they announce tons of new yen printing and gbp is not showing signs of strong weaking soon.
Thanks buddy but just to mention, in today's meeting they never mentioned this phrase "they will do whatever to weaken yen further". They just mentioned the same proposal of 60-70T yens being put into economy by bond purchases. This news was already there in the market and nothing has been changed since last BOJ meeting.
So, I stick to this that we will see Nikkie going down and reason could be any of the below

1. Profit taking
2. Earth Quake
3. Stock bubble
4. Company no more holding onto the cash and start to lend etc

So, Nikkie down meaning USD/JPY down and GBP/JPY down too.. Amen!
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