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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,261
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:26pm Dec 18, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting FxPrelude
I start to hate these news events more and more every day ... 10 min of unnecessary chaos lol got kicked out of G/U trade just so i could watch it go higer .

no comment....
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #129,262
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:42pm Dec 18, 2013 1:42pm
it was still +90 PIP of that pinbar ... but im so mad at my self for trailing the stop because i wanted to hold this last position longer only 5 pips lower and i would survive this i know i sound greedy but events like this realy f**** your trade manegment .
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  • #129,263
  • Edited 4:07pm Dec 18, 2013 3:47pm | Edited 4:07pm
Hi everyone,

This is my first post in this form and I would be glad for your opinion of below chart. Based on the documentation I found in the forum the current daily Bar looks like forming a Double High Lower Close (DBHLC) over the last few days on the EUR/USD. I would think that is a strong ell signal even we are in an uptrend at the moment. Would you take this trade short? Thank you in advance for your feedback and I am looking forward to learn more here.

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Tarek
  • #129,264
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:01pm Dec 18, 2013 4:01pm
fakeout?
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  • #129,265
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:08pm Dec 18, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting Kroete
Hi everyone, This is my first post in this form and I would be glad for your opinion of below chart. Based on the documentation I found in the forum the current daily Bar looks like forming a Double High Lower Close (DBHLC) over the last few days. I would think that is a strong ell signal even we are in an uptrend at the moment. Would you take this trade short? Thank you in advance for your feedback and I am looking forward to learn more here. {image} Tarek
hello Tarek this bar is a BEOB as far as I can see it however this is what i see in store for it therefore i will pass on it.

Al.
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  • #129,266
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:11pm Dec 18, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting albus999
{quote} hello Tarek this bar is a BEOB as far as I can see it however this is what i see in store for it therefore i will pass on it. Al. {image}
Thank you for your feedback Al. Your chart shows clearly that there is a strong support area so I will pass this on as well.
  • #129,267
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:12pm Dec 18, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting Kroete
Hi everyone, This is my first post in this form and I would be glad for your opinion of below chart. Based on the documentation I found in the forum the current daily Bar looks like forming a Double High Lower Close (DBHLC) over the last few days. I would think that is a strong ell signal even we are in an uptrend at the moment. Would you take this trade short? Thank you in advance for your feedback and I am looking forward to learn more here. {image} Tarek
I also noticed on it... I am also new here.

I think we have a BEOB, at a key level, and a BRN of 1.38 on EURUSD.

But if and how to trade it, that's the question...

An entry on the break of last low plus 10-15 pips will give us a ridiculous stop of 150 pips if we place it at a last bar high.
We could put a limit order at a pink area, where they are likely to retrace, and try to trade it down to orange FTA. Then a stop above last high, and TP for half a position at FTA gives us around 1R. We could trail the other half if it goes further down.

What do you think? I am tempted to place an order now, but I think I will wait for 12 hours to let the market digest the news...

It is probably not a AAA+++ setup as it is counter trend. But the supply area is very strong (see a previous departure from it), BRN and BEOB are evident... (also a fake inside bar break)
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Michal9
  • #129,268
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:36pm Dec 18, 2013 4:36pm
Hello guys,

For me the bar on EU is a big NONO as it is running right into that FTA which is like just "couple" of pips away... Also the bar is not at absolute high, so it does not look much appealing to me. However, CADJPY's last weekly close above 97.00 combined with todays bullish outside bar look much better. Still, not an A+ trade but I am planing to trade it.

Cheers
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Twitter @raitchev
  • #129,269
  • Dec 18, 2013 5:52pm Dec 18, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting michal9
{quote} I also noticed on it... I am also new here. I think we have a BEOB, at a key level, and a BRN of 1.38 on EURUSD. But if and how to trade it, that's the question... An entry on the break of last low plus 10-15 pips will give us a ridiculous stop of 150 pips if we place it at a last bar high. We could put a limit order at a pink area, where they are likely to retrace, and try to trade it down to orange FTA. Then a stop above last high, and TP for half a position at FTA gives us around 1R. We could trail the other half if it goes further down.[b]...
This is my plan, with a stop above the daily high.

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Mostly just wanted to comment on the part I bolded. I think being conservative is wonderful (and something everyone should strive to achieve), but I wouldn't worry about the news nor do I think you should let it influence your decisions. If the trade is there, its there. Forget about the news, it'll just leave you confused.
And I do agree, its not A+++, but its not too bad. I don't really see any problem with passing on it but for those who do pass, just make sure you're passing on it to take better setups and not much worse ones
  • #129,270
  • Dec 19, 2013 12:58am Dec 19, 2013 12:58am
Quoting albus999
fakeout? {image}
The weekly chart shows out the fakeout scenario clearly. But the problem is it is running into lot of traffic. So I would just pass it.

Neytiri
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  • #129,271
  • Dec 19, 2013 1:08am Dec 19, 2013 1:08am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} The weekly chart shows out the fakeout scenario clearly. But the problem is it is running into lot of traffic. So I would just pass it. Neytiri {image}

I traded USDCHF fakey on hourly chart yesterday.

N
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  • #129,272
  • Edited 3:17am Dec 19, 2013 2:44am | Edited 3:17am
Oh what a place is this!!!. Long time back when i was reading this thread ,these guys were here helping people (mbq and Jaroo and PB). And i can see they are still here with the same energy , repeating same answers for newcomers every time without a getting annoyed.And moreover not bullying the newbies . NO ego here.

Hats off to you guys for your patience and kindness.

Hope you don't mind join here and learn few things from you guys. Please comment my trades if you have any.Especially my losing trades.


Fxyogi

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  • #129,273
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:20am Dec 19, 2013 3:20am
Hello Guys,
Just a quick observation bringing me to this question.
Mike is 8:00pm GMT yesterday one of those period you consider staying out of the market. considering the interest rate announcement cluster with some other news event at that time causing upward and downward spikes.
Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #129,274
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:46am Dec 19, 2013 3:46am
Quoting FxPrelude
it was still +90 PIP of that pinbar ... but im so mad at my self for trailing the stop because i wanted to hold this last position longer only 5 pips lower and i would survive this i know i sound greedy but events like this realy f**** your trade manegment . {image}

Just FOMC statement....
An advice - if you want to avoid these dont trade during policy statements. i.e. FOMC, Dhagi speaking about ECB interest rates, Stevens on RBA rates etc...

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #129,275
  • Dec 19, 2013 4:14am Dec 19, 2013 4:14am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Just FOMC statement.... An advice - if you want to avoid these dont trade during policy statements. i.e. FOMC, Dhagi speaking about ECB interest rates, Stevens on RBA rates etc... Stephen
You misunderstud me ... i enter the trade 1 day before the news event ( the pin at the botom of the chart ) i just got kicked out because i trail my stop to close .
I am always avare of any mayor events and i do try to avoid this chaos as much as posible ... its on my chek list every time i look for an entry especialy from lower TFs .
  • #129,276
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:21am Dec 19, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} The weekly chart shows out the fakeout scenario clearly. But the problem is it is running into lot of traffic. So I would just pass it. Neytiri {image}
Agreed N,

Just not enough of a bullish story there. Plus the notorious year end.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,277
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:53am Dec 19, 2013 5:53am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} I traded USDCHF fakey on hourly chart yesterday. N {image} {image}
This was riskier than the initial bullish fake out that occurred off the lows.

The lows were more defined as a support zone (PPZ) and the lack of momentum to the downside after that bearish bar closed under the lows, was very obvious.

Interestingly, when price has to move beyond the confines of a consolidation zone to attract additional order flow, a fake out in that case is very likely to lead to a breakout the other opposite end of the consolidation zone.

Sounds a little confusing but makes sense if you give it a thought. If all price wanted was to stay within the consolidation box then it was merely doing that prior to the initial fake out as well. The fake out itself is a BIG sign that the market wants to be pushing out of that equilibrium state. It could do that via a breakout say to the upside, but if there isn't enough strength, it often just pokes its head out the down side to see if some more sheep could be lured in (poor sellers) to help unload more long positions that ultimately create the bullish fake out and the eventual long breakout to the upside.

It so happens that after tight consolidation periods the bulls and the bears are often too entangled to give up, and in this state of "being stuck" the only real option that price has, is to get more traders involved in the conflict, i.e take on additional orders to see which side of the scale gets heavier. In this context, the nature of the fake out (bullish or bearish) can be very telling about the eventual breakout direction.

Again this isn't any holy grail or 100% predictable and repetitive phenomena but it just gives me a reason to be very cautious heading back (or staying within) a consolidation box after we've had an initial successful fake out from the box.

In any case, the market faking out of a consolidation box is in many ways like the sea pulling back prior to the tsunami wave.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,278
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:59am Dec 19, 2013 5:59am
Quoting Fxyogi
Oh what a place is this!!!. Long time back when i was reading this thread ,these guys were here helping people (mbq and Jaroo and PB). And i can see they are still here with the same energy , repeating same answers for newcomers every time without a getting annoyed.And moreover not bullying the newbies . NO ego here. Hats off to you guys for your patience and kindness. Hope you don't mind join here and learn few things from you guys. Please comment my trades if you have any.Especially my losing trades. Fxyogi {image}
hey Fx,

Great to have you here

I see quite a few things that could get you in trouble there. For your learning, here they are:

1) Small BUOB compared to the strong down move

2) Not off major support (missed the 9350 PPZ by quite a mile)

3) Heading into a major Round Number PPZ.

4) Occurring close to the holiday period.

I really do hope that you will continue to post your setups and take an active part in helping others and yourself out via this great platform of a thread.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,279
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:16am Dec 19, 2013 8:16am
Quoting jibson007
Hello Guys, Just a quick observation bringing me to this question. Mike is 8:00pm GMT yesterday one of those period you consider staying out of the market. considering the interest rate announcement cluster with some other news event at that time causing upward and downward spikes.
Hey Jib

I have no problem being in trades prior to the interest rate announcement. I wouldn't be entering any new ones though that late in the day. I generally don't enter new intraday trades(4hr and lower) after about 10am et NY time. But their are always some exceptions here and there

Best
Mike
  • #129,280
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:34am Dec 19, 2013 11:34am
hello ghous!

why not use the actual levels to assess the false break!
however it would be best to place an order when the price is indented between the actual levels.

I say this because very often the actual level between the min and max range are formed market!

In this way you can take advantage of greater security with the fake break!
the tail is only used to collect liquidity is indicative and not operational
only personal opinions, I apologize for writing

false break whit inside bar that shows the actual price levels
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