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  • #2,221
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:23pm Dec 18, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Otherwise I have spread legs expiring 12/21, only one of concern is SSO $90p - if we get a selloff in the S&P I might have to deal there, SSO around $94.50 now, but can move fast...
shit SSO weekly was the scalp to be in, 12/21 $98 call went $0.23 - $1.12 on the day. SSO closed $98.25 on the day...

UVXY 12/21 $19p went $0.40-$1.40.....etc
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,222
  • Edited 5:38pm Dec 18, 2013 4:49pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Erkle touched me $35.50 strike AH, but fell back to $34.70....bastards....falling....bastards.....falling...$34.25...bastards....fucked again.....
ORCL trying to help me, still trading AH and near $35.00. If it will follow through into Thursday's open I will make some money. $36.50 would be a nice round number and a new 52-week high...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,223
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:30pm Dec 18, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ORCL trying to help me, still trading AH and near $35.00. If it will follow through into Thursday's open I will make some money. $36.50 would be a nice round number and a new 52-week high...
Good call (in more ways than one). Bounced at the 200DMA. I don't look at stocks much but anyone looking at ORCL during the last week had plenty of time to watch the basing at the 200DMA. What a gift for those who spotted it...but you've got to be looking for these things. I should probably start looking. From here (i.e. assuming an open at 35 tomorrow) naked put sales @35 would appear to be a decent bet, or more conservatively 33.5s (should they exist) or 34s.
Unless that is today's rampfest on the markets is a bull trap. I don't think it is, but you never know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,224
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:22pm Dec 18, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I just worked this out for IWM and it comes to 1.69 or thereabouts. It's a bit skewiff because IWM is between strikes (curr 111.24/111.35); I chose 111.5 as ATM and 112C and 111P as OTM. So anyway the expected move is 169 which from a mid of about 111.30 says a 1SD move (I think; maybe it's 2SDs..does anybody know?) would have us land somewhere between 109.61 and 112.99 by Friday's expiration. Current: 111.23/35 111.5C: 82.5 , 111.5P: 109.5, 112C: 60, 111P: 86.5 82.5+109.5+60+86.5/2 = 169.25. That's very interesting and not purely academic...
IWM closed at 112.88 today. That calculation that I did a couple of days ago projected a range (to expiration Friday i.e. 4PM ET) of 109.61 to 112.99.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,225
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:33pm Dec 18, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} IWM closed at 112.88 today. That calculation that I did a couple of days ago projected a range (to expiration Friday i.e. 4PM ET) of 109.61 to 112.99.
So what we thinking for the rest of the week? Clearly the direction is up, but I think we could get above Nov highs this week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #2,226
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:02pm Dec 18, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} So what we thinking for the rest of the week? Clearly the direction is up, but I think we could get above Nov highs this week.
Personally I'm going to start fading this soon. I'm not getting all bullish up here. I was quite happy to get bullish a few days ago, even yesterday and going into FOMC, but now and not up here.
The high this year for IWM is 114 and change. I doubt we'll get there this week. I think there is a risk however small that what we saw today is a shakeout or some kind of precursor before a more substantial fall, perhaps in January, which would set us up for some sideways action for a few months in the first quarter or so of next year. At some point this is gonna drop people are going to miss it, they'll jump on board and then it'll reverse hard, plus ca change, etc etc.
So I reckon sideways for a bit, sideways up even, to tag those highs on IWM, maybe a bit more, 115 etc, but much more than that, I dunno.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,227
  • Dec 18, 2013 9:53pm Dec 18, 2013 9:53pm
Well when looking at the monthly candles you see bold solid candles. This month we've put in an orderly retrace of November's candle, and now trading back near all time highs. I'm thinking a strong buy until the end of the month when December monthly candle is closing. I suspect it will look a lot like November's monthly candle.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #2,228
  • Dec 19, 2013 1:20am Dec 19, 2013 1:20am
I have been looking at HLF. Maybe it's the next hot momo. Stock buyback, LBO, mofo might gain 30% by February. Looking for good entries on a straight Feb vertical bull spread or wait to go Feb/Mar....

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-t...tml?cmpid=yhoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,229
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:02am Dec 19, 2013 8:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} strangled it for 12/21, $31.50p/$35.50c, $0.17/$0.20 - $0.37 debit, need a $2 pop, ORCL trading around $33.80 now, looking for $4+ drop, but we'll see if FOMC fireworks/fizzle gets in the way or helps....
moving on the $35.50 strike premarket, if it can punch through, calls could give $0.90+. Don't need to be a hero, though, clock is ticking, premarket index futures in the red, might have to take what's there at the open....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,230
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:46am Dec 19, 2013 8:46am
longed GDX $20 puts for 6c or $6 per contract, playing catch up to the Gold drop.

current price is 20.45 and falling

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
20.45 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.41(1.97%) 14:39 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #2,231
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:51am Dec 19, 2013 8:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} moving on the $35.50 strike premarket, if it can punch through, calls could give $0.90+. Don't need to be a hero, though, clock is ticking, premarket index futures in the red, might have to take what's there at the open....

took $0.90 for the calls, good enough
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,232
  • Dec 19, 2013 8:58am Dec 19, 2013 8:58am
morning, Cecil - TLT strangle is looking deathly, puts not likely to survive I'd say. I sold the 12/27 $104 calls same price as bought the 12/27 $105 calls ($0.23) - so if those hold I'll be out $0.21 + comms on the puts, unless we get a miracle I guess...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,233
  • Dec 19, 2013 9:07am Dec 19, 2013 9:07am
morning T.F. yes looks like there dead in the water, a close below 102.50 then I may be forced to long the 102 put for pennies that could save the whole strangle trade otherwise I'll be licking wounds
  • #2,234
  • Dec 19, 2013 11:38am Dec 19, 2013 11:38am
TLT is trying to drop. The whole $102.00-$102.50 gauntlet has gotta be stop-rich and when $102.50 gets a solid break she could drop fast. Do or die time for our strangle...I need a break of $102.00...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasu...155237053.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,235
  • Dec 19, 2013 12:09pm Dec 19, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting The Fool
TLT is trying to drop. The whole $102.00-$102.50 gauntlet has gotta be stop-rich and when $102.50 gets a solid break she could drop fast. Do or die time for our strangle...I need a break of $102.00... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasu...155237053.html
looking to long puts on $102 but I need the option for 5c or under
  • #2,236
  • Dec 19, 2013 1:51pm Dec 19, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} took $0.90 for the calls, good enough
zounds I was too early here. ORCL 12/21 $35.50 calls now about $1.40, ORCL trading up towards $37.00...

I bought at $0.20 sold at $0.90. Wasn't sure how much screen time I was gonna have though, so ....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,237
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:27pm Dec 19, 2013 3:27pm
  • #2,238
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:27pm Dec 19, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} zounds I was too early here. ORCL 12/21 $35.50 calls now about $1.40, ORCL trading up towards $37.00... I bought at $0.20 sold at $0.90. Wasn't sure how much screen time I was gonna have though, so ....
  • #2,239
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:49pm Dec 19, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote}
Hey CG, have some Happy Holidays buddy. I am gonna be a little scarce here during Christmas week, may not trade much beyond Monday. Trying to get into some spread action, just watching how things are stacking up. Crossed fingers on the TLT trade expiring next week, if it stays below $104 by 12/27 I'll not be too hurt.

P.S., Check out NUS, that's another pig I'd like to stick....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,240
  • Edited 7:23pm Dec 19, 2013 7:13pm | Edited 7:23pm
Gold. Due for a heavy drop? Or a heavy bounce? Hard break of (GLD) $115 can open a quick drop to $110, but there's another battle there.

...Maybe try both ends: long Mar 31 $100p @ $1.11, short Mar 22 $100p @ $0.99, nd $0.12

long Mar 31 $125c @ $1.34, short Mar 22 $125c @ $1.16, nd $0.18
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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