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  • #2,201
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:08pm Dec 18, 2013 1:08pm
tapirrrrr! and the markets rally. Echo of the last NFP....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,202
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:17pm Dec 18, 2013 1:17pm
let them rally so TLT can break the $100 barrier
  • #2,203
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:19pm Dec 18, 2013 1:19pm
You can see all the option writers rubbing their hands together in glee...all that premium taken in from ramped IVs, and the markets will probably end up closing in many places not far from where they opened.
Ah, gotta love the game...until you get whacked again, at which time you think, god, I hate this game.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,204
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:22pm Dec 18, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
let them rally so TLT can break the $100 barrier
i'll be waiting til after the press conference, but it's looking like a tall order for TLT long puts, & I wii be surprised if it can put in the $1.50 move I need there in 1-2 days...

....looking bond positive now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,205
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:34pm Dec 18, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} i'll be waiting til after the press conference, but it's looking like a tall order for TLT long puts, & I wii be surprised if it can put in the $1.50 move I need there in 1-2 days... ....looking bond positive now...
TLT moving higher, this is the reason on FOMC day your better of longing puts and calls and wait until 5 minutes before the announcement to get them cheap, 14c on both sides
  • #2,206
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:37pm Dec 18, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} TLT moving higher, this is the reason on FOMC day your better of longing puts and calls and wait until 5 minutes before the announcement to get them cheap, 14c on both sides
yep, good entry. news should be bond negative, though, wonder if we not seeing some short covering...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,207
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:41pm Dec 18, 2013 1:41pm
Think there will be as TLT may struggle to get above $104.50 so will look to close the profitable side, missed the low which was 8c
  • #2,208
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:43pm Dec 18, 2013 1:43pm
TLT is a hard come down
  • #2,209
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:49pm Dec 18, 2013 1:49pm
Longed TLT $101.50 for 12c. also have that strangle at 101$ for 14c.

TLT is now in sync with SPY

TLT Dec 2013 101.500 put (TLT131221P00101500)
-OPR
0.12 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.10(45.45%)
  • #2,210
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:49pm Dec 18, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
TLT is a hard come down
gonna be a shootout, need a break of $102 or $104 today and further tomorrow, as i said it might be a tall order, but we'll see

...bastards
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,211
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:55pm Dec 18, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} gonna be a shootout, need a break of $102 or $104 today and further tomorrow, as i said it might be a tall order, but we'll see ...bastards
favour a test of $100 by Friday, well i hope anyway
  • #2,212
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:06pm Dec 18, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} gonna be a shootout, need a break of $102 or $104 today and further tomorrow, as i said it might be a tall order, but we'll see ...bastards
I am gonna sell 12/27 calls against the long call leg, prolly today or tomorrow, watching to see if TLT will bounce, prolly $104c maybe higher if it does bounce...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,213
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:17pm Dec 18, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am gonna sell 12/27 calls against the long call leg, prolly today or tomorrow, watching to see if TLT will bounce, prolly $104c maybe higher if it does bounce...
I dunno Cecil but if she'd bust the $102.50 I think she could take $102.00 right quick. That is my command for the end of the day. If she heads that way I will sell 12/27 $103c for credit on the call leg....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,214
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:20pm Dec 18, 2013 2:20pm
you know the $10B cut is off the mortgage backed sec side, not the Treas bonds....so really not much of a ding on TLT...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,215
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:25pm Dec 18, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} strangled it for 12/21, $31.50p/$35.50c, $0.17/$0.20 - $0.37 debit, need a $2 pop, ORCL trading around $33.80 now, looking for $4+ drop, but we'll see if FOMC fireworks/fizzle gets in the way or helps....
a'ight Erkle, your moment is coming, be good to me. ORCL popped to $34.45 on the news...I'd a take a quick $2+ pop long AH no problem
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,216
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:37pm Dec 18, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
you know the $10B cut is off the mortgage backed sec side, not the Treas bonds....so really not much of a ding on TLT...
TLT in comparison to the DOW move is lagging in volatility
  • #2,217
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:43pm Dec 18, 2013 2:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} TLT in comparison to the DOW move is lagging in volatility
PISSpoor action for Tapir Day if you ax me....4bit move either way
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,218
  • Dec 18, 2013 2:52pm Dec 18, 2013 2:52pm
well so much for the taper. anticlimactic. Can I get my money back? (lol. Hell No!)

10y rate opened 2.86, dipped to 2.82, rose to 2.93, closed at 2.89. Four and twenty tapirs, baked in a pie....

Maybe we can get something tomorrow...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-12-18_1249-t10y.png Size: 262 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,219
  • Dec 18, 2013 3:02pm Dec 18, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am gonna sell 12/27 calls against the long call leg, prolly today or tomorrow, watching to see if TLT will bounce, prolly $104c maybe higher if it does bounce...
sold the 12/27 $104c tapirs for $0.24. I would probably keep digging this hole, but I'm out of shovel for now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,220
  • Edited 3:26pm Dec 18, 2013 3:07pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a'ight Erkle, your moment is coming, be good to me. ORCL popped to $34.45 on the news...I'd a take a quick $2+ pop long AH no problem
Erkle touched me $35.50 strike AH, but fell back to $34.70....bastards....falling....bastards.....falling...$34.25...bastards....fucked again.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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