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  • #70,761
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:38pm Dec 16, 2013 8:38pm
So i was taking to Mars by Aliens for 2 days, and now am back. Ok, let's see, ... dolar at 8950?? so were bank closed for the last few days?

amazing, all that matters is the USD and what the FED has to say... shame on us
  • #70,762
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:58pm Dec 16, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting Hotkqash
At recent meetings, the Board had judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate while continuing to gauge the effects of the substantial degree of monetary policy stimulus that had already been put in place. There had been further signs of the stimulatory effects of low interest rates, most notably in the housing market, and additional effects were still likely to be coming through. At the same time, inflation remained within the target. While the exchange rate had depreciated over the month, members agreed that it remained uncomfortably...
It was my thought before Stevens said to Bloomberg last week.

RBA has a word but nothing on tools. They keep interest rate unchanged. How they can meet their hope on lower AUD?
AUD interest rate still high compared to other G10 country.

Then, I flipped my position to long since we didn't touch 8900.
  • #70,763
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:01pm Dec 16, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...december-2013/
That is in my mind too. Thanks for the link.

So question, why does RBA thinks that a weaker AUD will help the economy? Surely they are highly educated people with excellent PHDs.

Whatever the case, just follow the paymaster!
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #70,764
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:17pm Dec 16, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} That is in my mind too. Thanks for the link. So question, why does RBA thinks that a weaker AUD will help the economy? Surely they are highly educated people with excellent PHDs. Whatever the case, just follow the paymaster!
they want it to go down
To create debt
And keep us working
It's so our assets are sold of cheaper aswell
Good for work place

my view its technically coming down rather fundamentally



check my next post as well in which minutes tells the story that they dont want furthur action bcoz they have meeting in feb n they are not close enouh for any rate cut than, might they will think in may or later . they want it down through words, how can they take it down through ,dont know.

action speaks louder than words, action is nothing .

i see maximum 8817 ,not because fundamentals, bcoz of this head n shoulder which none of u see or discussing

https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/

  • #70,765
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:25pm Dec 16, 2013 10:25pm
monthly chart
trying to breakdown
let see hold or it would breakdown n close below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-mn1-afb-fx-ltd.png Size: 37 KB
  • #70,766
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:32pm Dec 16, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting razaali
monthly chart trying to breakdown let see hold or it would breakdown n close below {image}
Agree with you.
on Monthly Chart, it seems wants break down.
In my opinion, weekly need correction, AUD down need take a breath

Anyway, I put sell stop below strongest support. Just in case..
No SL Here
  • #70,767
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:46pm Dec 16, 2013 10:46pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} AUDNZD, If there is a support in this mega bearish trend it's 1.00 to 1.05. (Parity / Psychologic price ) As long as market is not showing some signs of reversal... trend may keeps going down. => In fact As long as AUD is weaker than NZD. Ps: Suddenly I feel like AUDNZD & EURGBP are the most easiest pair to trade.

You should take a look at EUR/Aud for the past month, You could have entered the market at the beginning of the week with 150 pip SL for the past 6 weeks.

Oh don't forget AUD/CHF for the past two months. A child could make money in this market.
  • #70,768
  • Dec 16, 2013 10:55pm Dec 16, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting atria
{quote} Agree with you. on Monthly Chart, it seems wants break down. In my opinion, weekly need correction, AUD down need take a breath Anyway, I put sell stop below strongest support. Just in case.. No SL Here
Yeah, if she breaks support I will sell like no tomorrow just like AUD/NZD and AUD/CHF.
  • #70,769
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:04pm Dec 16, 2013 11:04pm
Quoting atria
{quote} Agree with you. on Monthly Chart, it seems wants break down. In my opinion, weekly need correction, AUD down need take a breath Anyway, I put sell stop below strongest support. Just in case.. No SL Here

What is the strongest support level u mean ?

  • #70,770
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:12pm Dec 16, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} AUDNZD, If there is a support in this mega bearish trend it's 1.00 to 1.05. (Parity / Psychologic price ) As long as market is not showing some signs of reversal... trend may keeps going down. => In fact As long as AUD is weaker than NZD. Ps: Suddenly I feel like AUDNZD & EURGBP are the most easiest pair to trade.

Yep, parity here we come.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #70,771
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:14pm Dec 16, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} check my next post as well in which minutes tells the story that they dont want furthur action bcoz they have meeting in feb n they are not close enouh for any rate cut than, might they will think in may or later . they want it down through words, how can they take it down through ,dont know. action speaks louder than words, action is nothing . i see maximum 8817 ,not because fundamentals, bcoz of this head n shoulder which none of u see or discussing https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/

Tell that to AUD/NZD, this pair might give a clue what could happen with AUD/USD.
  • #70,772
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:16pm Dec 16, 2013 11:16pm
I'm staying out of AU and Ea until they find a direction. The chop monster has been at work this week and last.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #70,773
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:13am Dec 17, 2013 12:13am
From this few days price action, I realized that Aussie is want to devalue.. but the USD is swing.. up and down make the Aussie hit buy stop sell top..

So I believe tomorrow Stevens speech (Aussie down) and
FOMC statement(No Taper Aussie shoot up up up)


Both negative to Aussie? AU .883 area.. or even lower to .8707 area (Monthly TL)

Both positive (possible also in Forex world) to Aussie? AU back to weekly TL ~.94
  • #70,774
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:14am Dec 17, 2013 12:14am
has anybody seen the MYEFO release figure? if yes,please help me with it
  • #70,775
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:43am Dec 17, 2013 12:43am
Quoting waifong
{quote} What is the strongest support level u mean ?
0.8909 (this week low)
0.8900 (psychological level)
0.8847 (lowest august)

If broken, maybe we can reach 0.87
  • #70,776
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:48am Dec 17, 2013 12:48am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
From this few days price action, I realized that Aussie is want to devalue.. but the USD is swing.. up and down make the Aussie hit buy stop sell top.. So I believe tomorrow Stevens speech (Aussie down) and FOMC statement(No Taper Aussie shoot up up up) Both negative to Aussie? AU .883 area.. or even lower to .8707 area (Monthly TL) Both positive (possible also in Forex world) to Aussie? AU back to weekly TL ~.94
unless stevens commits to action or the FOMC commits to tapering it seems like those are the only things that will make AUD crack it pushed up after stevens gave the same rhetoric I think this market is quickly becoming saturated and a squeeze may happen especially in the AUD/NZD
  • #70,777
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:55am Dec 17, 2013 12:55am
Quoting atria
{quote} It was my thought before Stevens said to Bloomberg last week. RBA has a word but nothing on tools. They keep interest rate unchanged. How they can meet their hope on lower AUD? AUD interest rate still high compared to other G10 country. Then, I flipped my position to long since we didn't touch 8900.
they kept rate unchanged,but are open to a rate cut....and the recent trend spaeks of gradual rate trimmings,we came to 2.5 from 3.5

beyond that,switching on a long with FOMC taper talk yet unknown is a tad(dicey),but that depends on the intended lifetime of the long though.
  • #70,778
  • Edited 1:12am Dec 17, 2013 12:57am | Edited 1:12am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
From this few days price action, I realized that Aussie is want to devalue.. but the USD is swing.. up and down make the Aussie hit buy stop sell top.. So I believe tomorrow Stevens speech (Aussie down) and FOMC statement(No Taper Aussie shoot up up up) Both negative to Aussie? AU .883 area.. or even lower to .8707 area (Monthly TL) Both positive (possible also in Forex world) to Aussie? AU back to weekly TL ~.94
40% of taper tomorrow but 60% not taper, if CPI came less than forecast than more chances of no taper.
if taper came happened way way way down
if no taper way way way up
if mention specific date than down to 8800 than retracement
  • #70,779
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:58am Dec 17, 2013 12:58am
Today can be a maximum bounce to 0.9020 or not bounce. because technically sandwiched price for sale.
Recommendation: if there is a bounce, use the opportunity to sell at the best price.
  • #70,780
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:06am Dec 17, 2013 1:06am
Quoting NJaNeer
{quote} Tell that to AUD/NZD, this pair might give a clue what could happen with AUD/USD.
AUD/NZD depends on audusd , if audusd start retracement , it will very good for AUD/NZD to go long. the problem with AUD/NZD is AU is going continues downward
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