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AUD/USD

  • #70,741
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:27pm Dec 16, 2013 6:27pm
will see if AUD news is tradeable
  • #70,742
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:28pm Dec 16, 2013 6:28pm
Quoting jdutch
… the other side of the argument is that they need the investment into the AU to carry at least a good part of the economy, so let me say, the inevitable rate cut would be IMO for a quarter of a percent, but wouldn't be too much to push away the constant flows they need and have been relying on.

A strong AUD is good for the economy as it makes our imports cheaper and that includes oil which is used in transport which the whinging manufacturing sector uses as well. The AUD may benefit MFG in the profit lines, but the costs go up due to the imported materials they use which include steel – AU mines and sells the iron internationally and buys it back as steel.



With Ford and Holden leaving AU, our MFG is being further decimated, so it makes sense to concentrate on mining, services which include strong financial services and selling farmland and property to OS investors. So the AUD should be strong.

  • #70,743
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:32pm Dec 16, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting Macdon
A strong AUD is good for the economy as it makes our imports cheaper and that includes oil which is used in transport which the whinging manufacturing sector uses as well. The AUD may benefit MFG in the profit lines, but the costs go up due to the imported materials they use which include steel – AU mines and sells the iron internationally and buys it back as steel. With Ford and Holden leaving AU, our MFG is being further decimated, so it makes sense to concentrate on mining, services which include strong financial services and selling farmland...
So are your fuel prices climbing in AUD ?

USA finally, at highs of $4.00 per gallon are at $ 3.03 - 3.09 per gallon now.............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,744
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:32pm Dec 16, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting chazzle
will see if AUD news is tradeable
AU M1

scalp
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  • #70,745
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:35pm Dec 16, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting chazzle
{quote} AU M1 scalp {image}
That was a tight call...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,746
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:36pm Dec 16, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} That was a tight call...............
1 hour from now , maybe more fireworks, maybe this was a news release leak 1 hour early...................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #70,747
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:37pm Dec 16, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
As soon as AUDUSD breaks the support I go Short for another 900 pips down (0.8800 to 0.7900). So I would go long EURAUD and short AUDNZD as well.
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Money Makes Money
  • #70,748
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:40pm Dec 16, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting chazzle
{quote} AU M1 scalp {image}
RELOAD
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  • #70,749
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:54pm Dec 16, 2013 6:54pm
.8952

Bears may have to wear some pain as I think we may test topside resistance .8980 sometime today as RBA make another pathetic attempt to talk currency lower.

RBA's hands are tied because of housing boom.

Across the ditch our kiwi cousins are about to experience some interest rate tightening and expect that to happen here as well in 2014.

The AUD/NZD cross has weighed heavily on the AUD

At 1.07-1.08 many will start locking in some long long term strategies.
  • #70,750
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:56pm Dec 16, 2013 6:56pm
At recent meetings, the Board had judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate while continuing to gauge the effects of the substantial degree of monetary policy stimulus that had already been put in place. There had been further signs of the stimulatory effects of low interest rates, most notably in the housing market, and additional effects were still likely to be coming through. At the same time, inflation remained within the target. While the exchange rate had depreciated over the month, members agreed that it remained uncomfortably high and a lower level would likely be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.

http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-polic.../03122013.html
  • #70,751
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:11pm Dec 16, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting Hotkqash
At recent meetings, the Board had judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate while continuing to gauge the effects of the substantial degree of monetary policy stimulus that had already been put in place. There had been further signs of the stimulatory effects of low interest rates, most notably in the housing market, and additional effects were still likely to be coming through. At the same time, inflation remained within the target. While the exchange rate had depreciated over the month, members agreed that it remained uncomfortably...
Here lies their problem.

Australia is a service based industry so a exchange rate impact has little effect.

Tourism is expensive compared to the Asian destinations.

Our manufacturing is shot to pieces because of high wages and gone overseas.

Depreciating currency will make imported goods expensive including fuel and will cripple the retailers.

If the RBA think 85 cents will bring back an economic boom here they need head examined.

In fact a lower Aussie will create a housing bubble as Asian buyers scoop up more property.
  • #70,752
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:31pm Dec 16, 2013 7:31pm
Just strange.

Why be so concerned about a potential housing boom? The only concerns I see are that it happens amidst a weak economic back drop. The last thing they want to do is to see a bubble they have to deal with in housing where they will only see a period of prolonged deleveraging afterwards if things don't get better. Why else would the RBA not see a housing market boom in their own yard as supportive to the global economic recovery as it could be seen.

They might just not have as much faith about growth as the more developed economies do.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #70,753
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:37pm Dec 16, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} Here lies their problem. Australia is a service based industry so a exchange rate impact has little effect. Tourism is expensive compared to the Asian destinations. Our manufacturing is shot to pieces because of high wages and gone overseas. Depreciating currency will make imported goods expensive including fuel and will cripple the retailers. If the RBA think 85 cents will bring back an economic boom here they need head examined. In fact a lower Aussie will create a housing bubble as Asian buyers scoop up more property.

that was my thoughts too, every country and its economy is different, the flow of investment changes every now and then, if the country no longer innovate itself and unwilling to change, while other emerging countries become competitive and more attractive, it can't blame itself to become sluggish, just like what's happening to EUR.

In the next 10-20 years, the problem in EUR will only continue to create problem, and making its top grade citizens leave it country to EM and others to seek better jobs and prospects, as EUR emphasize too much on UNION and welfare, making it least attractive soon, its just a speculating ground for churning money, speculating news and central bank's effort and not productive at all other than german, and other eur that's not within the euro currency itself.

Its like what france is going through now, sluggish economy, even though its 2nd in EUR. making it so much different from GER which can innovate and remain competitive with its people willing to work hard compared to welfare eur society that have very little productiveness.

a weaker AUD will only send investment flow out of AUD and make its people poorer.

Contrary, in SG, a stronger SGD attracts investment for its sound stability, make it attractive for expats to work here then working in a lower valued currency country that does not have purchasing/spending power. AUS must innovate and cut its reliance on export and growth on others, and make it into a real service industry and education hub. While JPY is much different because the plunge in 2008 is still far away from today's rate. They remain willing to change and compete, while AUD show a face of laziness in innovation. Don't ask why companies are moving out.

theory will never work. the strong will only get stronger, weak will only get weaker.

i had thoughts to migrate to AUS to set up offices and build my new home there, but if the govt/rba is so weak in tackling monetary issue, make it incompetent despite aus have all the necessary to grow and reform, i might need to seek new destination.
  • #70,754
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:42pm Dec 16, 2013 7:42pm
I'm reading your comments about house bubble which I didn't know the existence of one, but I came with this idea:

What if, The Goverment and RBA are just saying to the press that australia's economy is bad right now, showing the numbers and repeting that they need a lower $A, they push a "bad feeling" sentiment into the market, cutting hard the trust of investors in Australia. And what do we get? Less demand of $A, therefore the currency drops without the interest rates unchanged, leaving the house bubble quite ?
  • #70,755
  • Dec 16, 2013 7:56pm Dec 16, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting Macdon
{quote} A strong AUD is good for the economy as it makes our imports cheaper and that includes oil which is used in transport which the whinging manufacturing sector uses as well. The AUD may benefit MFG in the profit lines, but the costs go up due to the imported materials they use which include steel – AU mines and sells the iron internationally and buys it back as steel. With Ford and Holden leaving AU, our MFG is being further decimated, so it makes sense to concentrate on mining, services which include strong financial services and selling...
Just for sake of discussion.

In fact, I had been thinking hard as well, can a weak AUD really helps to improve the Australian economy? Anyone studied economics will surely agree that in order for the economy to improve in a more sustainable term, manufacturing alone is not the option. The country needs to have a stable currency in order to attract long term investors into the country. Long term investors meaning large multi national companies in Hi-Tech industries, such as petroleum processing, aerospace engineering, pharmaceutical industries, robotics industries etc. ie. Higher value production which I think Australia must have due to its higher wages than its neighbouring countries.

Nevertheless, at this moment, since the RBA wants a weaker AUD to boost manufacturing exports, lets stay with this view for the time being and follow their wishes. However, to be frank, I do not know if they are making the correct decision. Not my call.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #70,756
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:08pm Dec 16, 2013 8:08pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Just for sake of discussion. In fact, I had been thinking hard as well, can a weak AUD really helps to improve the Australian economy? Anyone studied economics will surely agree that in order for the economy to improve in a more sustainable term, manufacturing alone is not the option. The country needs to have a stable currency in order to attract long term investors into the country. Long term investors meaning large multi national companies in Hi-Tech industries, such as petroleum processing, aerospace engineering, pharmaceutical industries,...
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...december-2013/
  • #70,757
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:09pm Dec 16, 2013 8:09pm
RBA minutes: Saw it prudent to hold rates, but not cut off chance of a cut

 

  1. AUD remains uncomfortably high, lower level needed for balanced growth
  2. Board has not closed of possibiity of easing further
  3. See further singns that past rate cus are stimulating the economy
  4. Expects below trend growth over the next year, pick up thereafter
  5. Mining investment to decline over next few years
  6. Sees other business investment rising from current weak levels but will take time
  7. Labour market remains soft, but there are tentative signs of stabilization
  8. household consumption looks to have picked up a little since Q3
  9. Forward-looking indicators suggest dwelling investment would strengthen
  10. Chinese economy appeared a bit stronger in H2 vs. H1

  • #70,758
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:09pm Dec 16, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting lasty
.8952 Bears may have to wear some pain as I think we may test topside resistance .8980 sometime today as RBA make another pathetic attempt to talk currency lower. RBA's hands are tied because of housing boom. Across the ditch our kiwi cousins are about to experience some interest rate tightening and expect that to happen here as well in 2014. The AUD/NZD cross has weighed heavily on the AUD At 1.07-1.08 many will start locking in some long long term strategies.
AUDNZD, If there is a support in this mega bearish trend it's 1.00 to 1.05. (Parity / Psychologic price )
As long as market is not showing some signs of reversal... trend may keeps going down.
=> In fact As long as AUD is weaker than NZD.

Ps:
Suddenly I feel like AUDNZD & EURGBP are the most easiest pair to trade.
$10K Live Account... 3 months investor testing!
  • #70,759
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:18pm Dec 16, 2013 8:18pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...december-2013/
As per the link above I saw this, " If we were a manufacturing economy, a weak currency would help us but we are not we are a service economy. We don’t have the substitution industries to take advantage of the falling dollar”

So the RBA doesn't notice this small, tiny, but GLARING detail about their own economy?I think getting too caught up in the criticism is obscuring the only aim worth having of seeing it through the RBA's eyes. Who gives a shit about whether you, I, or anyone else thinks focusing on the exchange rate is wrong. I care about understanding why the RBA thinks this is the best path to take.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #70,760
  • Dec 16, 2013 8:28pm Dec 16, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} As per the link above I saw this, " If we were a manufacturing economy, a weak currency would help us but we are not we are a service economy. We don’t have the substitution industries to take advantage of the falling dollar” So the RBA doesn't notice this small, tiny, but GLARING detail about their own economy?I think getting too caught up in the criticism is obscuring the only aim worth having of seeing it through the RBA's eyes. Who gives a shit about whether you, I, or anyone else thinks focusing on the exchange rate is wrong. I care...
check my next post as well in which minutes tells the story that they dont want furthur action bcoz they have meeting in feb n they are not close enouh for any rate cut than, might they will think in may or later . they want it down through words, how can they take it down through ,dont know.
action speaks louder than words, action is nothing .
i see maximum 8817 ,not because fundamentals, bcoz of this head n shoulder which none of u see or discussing
https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/
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