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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,241
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:38pm Dec 16, 2013 3:38pm
Donīt have much time to posting my trades but here are a couple of my classic PA live trades I took last month for everyone who is interested. I am now highly focusing with touch trading and supply and demand zones and results looks much more tempting for me than with a classic PA bars. That is how will my trading evolve in future propably.
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  • #129,242
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:40pm Dec 16, 2013 3:40pm
Mike, Raitchev, everyone, thanks a lot. I wish I found earlier in my trading "career" this thread and people like you who are willing to help,

I will read your posts a few times, and I go back to learning, backtesting bar-by-bar, study the charts (it looks so easy and obvious when I study the posted charts, but seems to difficult to do live...)

I know it takes time & effort. I wanted more trades per month becasue I thought (I may read too much of Tharp) that with random distribution of winners and losers, you need more trades to let the edge play out. But I understand now that a setup quality is by far more important.

Thanks Magestic, yes, I have a trading app on my phone, so techincally I can trade from anywhere.
Michal9
  • #129,243
  • Edited Dec 17, 2013 4:17pm Dec 16, 2013 4:23pm | Edited Dec 17, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting raitchev
{quote} Learning does not include only taking trades. Sitting on your hands is also learning. In fact this is the hardest part of the trading process... to pass on those trades. It might become even harder when you see them going in your direction....
  • #129,244
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:34pm Dec 16, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting michal9
Thanks everyone. Ok, take the best setups only and have the exit plan upfront. If I trade just 2 times per month, how many years it will take me to learn? How can I aspire to be profitable every month, or at least every quarter, with so few trades? I often missed the best setups becasue I placed a limit entry and got no fill... And when I used a stop entry on the break... it filled me and reversed to my stop loss, with a full bar loss. I guess this also boils down to a setup quality. This is likely more important than entry method (limit or stop)...
michal9 -

I'm not sure if this is what's going through your head but I can tell you I personally struggled with this greatly - that is, "what exactly should I do? And what if I make the wrong decision now?". It was hard enough to patiently wait and identify a great setup, but the management of trades absolutely derailed me. My thinking at the time was, "If I go down the wrong path now, I could spend years doing the wrong thing and lose both time and money. And worse, I won't even know if I made the wrong decision until years later!" Actually I remember being so discouraged by this that I was tempted to give up.

Well, a few things about that. Yes you may lose money unless you're trading demo, which everyone should at first, but whether you lose time or not depends on two things: 1) How well you keep a journal, and 2) How well you're able to stick to something.

I think you already know this but I would say that the worst thing you can do, and something the amateur mind is prone to do, is to change what you're doing each time it doesn't seem to be working well, because you then won't be able to draw any conclusions from the data you've gathered because you have no "scientific control point". The market is filled with variables. The last thing you need is add your own variables into the mix - you need to remain consistent. Journal trades you considered taking but passed on and the reasons why. Journal trades where you placed a limit and missed - how much did you miss them by? Is it consistently happening? Journal different management strategies - choose and follow one, but keep track of what would have happened if I had applied a different strategy? The best thing is, let's say you find out conclusively something you're always doing that is clearly not working i.e. causing you to lose money. You haven't wasted your time; you're actually way ahead of the game because you've identified a pattern that you can use to your advantage.

All I can say is it just takes time. Before you know it, you'll be "doing" and not even thinking about it. And then realize it's been months, a year, 2 years, etc and you'll have gained that valuable commodity that no one else can provide for you - experience. It sounds funny but I think of making money as a side-effect of following my rules and I'm far more concerned about the process than the outcome.

Regarding specific methods of management, I tend to avoid any trade management that involves a fixed number of pips or automatic trailing. The market knows market structure. It knows nothing about fixed numbers of pips, where your breakeven point is, your full-time job hours, etc. Therefore, I believe the best management strategy (depending on what your strategy is) is one where you can respond to the market when it reaches certain prices i.e. setting alerts when price reaches a certain area so you can move your stop at the appropriate time, or make a decision to get out, etc.

Just my thoughts.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,245
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:03pm Dec 16, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting michal9
Mike, Raitchev, everyone, thanks a lot. I wish I found earlier in my trading "career" this thread and people like you who are willing to help, I will read your posts a few times, and I go back to learning, backtesting bar-by-bar, study the charts (it looks so easy and obvious when I study the posted charts, but seems to difficult to do live...) I know it takes time & effort. I wanted more trades per month becasue I thought (I may read too much of Tharp) that with random distribution of winners and losers, you need more trades to let the edge play...
Sorry had to say one more thing since you mentioned Tharp I live by his teachings and yes it is true that the more pristine setups you have in a given time, the faster you can compound your account. Note I said setups and not trades in a given time - huge difference. I consider James16 to be the father of my trading and the one thing I learned (without being fully conscious about it) is not necessarily how to identify a great setup but how to be disciplined and patient, and then you absolutely kill it when it appears. But as he says you have to learn to crawl before you can walk. Once you determine for yourself what an A+++ setup is for you nothing can stop you. But I believe the ultimate goal of any trader is to spend as little time in the marketplace as possible.

As an aside, I've had times when a number of A grade setups have appeared on almost a daily basis trading off the daily charts. Then there are times when you are challenged with sitting on your hands for weeks when you know there is nothing to do. This is true no matter what the timeframe.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,246
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:21pm Dec 16, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting Martin600
Donīt have much time to posting my trades but here are a couple of my classic PA live trades I took last month for everyone who is interested. I am now highly focusing with touch trading and supply and demand zones and results looks much more tempting for me than with a classic PA bars. That is how will my trading evolve in future propably. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
You can't really want more than this mate... beautiful setups, specially the EUR/TRY one.
Good job!
Twitter @raitchev
  • #129,247
  • Dec 16, 2013 9:23pm Dec 16, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting TamRoofer
{quote} I've noticed this abbreviation many times on charts but still don't know what it stands for... what is FTA? may I ask what is your plan for this trade? Is 18235-50ish part of your first TP or something cause it looks like a trouble area to me
This is how I plan to manage this trade:

1. price hits the bottom of the CB - move sl to b/e
2. price hits mid of CB - move sl to bottom of the CB
3. price hits top of CB - move sl to mid of CB
4. price hits daily bar low - close the position

I am not sure whether this is the best way to go. Seniors please comment on it.

Thanks,

Neytiri
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  • #129,248
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:53am Dec 17, 2013 12:53am
Was just going through some of the posts and noticed this ...

Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Few things I want to comment on here for you and others M You don't neccesarily need to have your exact exit plan up front. In fact I often have an idea of whta I am looking to do based on the "type" of setup.
With all do respect, my experience has been that it is absolutely critical that you know your trade plan A-Z BEFORE you enter a trade. Don't leave your exit plan for "as you go along" ... your emotions are bound to kick in and you will likely end up getting attached to the trade.

Just my 2 cents.
Matt @ SmartPipping
  • #129,249
  • Dec 17, 2013 4:02am Dec 17, 2013 4:02am
Thank you Felixcattus... this is helpful & motivating ;-)

I journal all my trades, I have my excel with hundres of lines, one for each trade, with screenshots before and after (also sometimes entry), and a reason why I took this, with entry type (limit, break, market), with planned exit (e.g. TP at 2R), with "what I learned". I also analze my trading in myfxbook.

I trade live, but microlots, a comfortable very small loss even if full day bar (sometimes I wonder if I should get back to demo, as james said in his "minimal requirements" post, but I subsribe to an opinion that I need to learn to control the emotions, too, although I perfectly understand that unless I am profitable in demo I won't be profitable live, but my objective at this time is to LEARN).

What I will START doing now, following your comment is two things: 1. also journal my not taken trades, 2. write a what-if scenario had I entered differently, had I placed a stop further/narrower, etc. After a while I will look for patterns in this.

I understand it is a mistake to look for a new strategy after a couple of losing trades. But you perfectly summarized how I feel: I fear that I will spend 6 months PROPERLY trading a POOR strategy. But then, indeed, if I do my journal right, I will learn from doing this, right?

Thanks again and I will very much welcome any other feedback you would be willing to share. I really appreciate it.
Michal9
  • #129,250
  • Dec 17, 2013 4:21am Dec 17, 2013 4:21am
Quoting SmartPipping
Was just going through some of the posts and noticed this ... {quote} With all do respect, my experience has been that it is absolutely critical that you know your trade plan A-Z BEFORE you enter a trade. Don't leave your exit plan for "as you go along" ... your emotions are bound to kick in and you will likely end up getting attached to the trade. Just my 2 cents.

Hey SP,

The problem with this in my opinion is that you cannot know your trade plan from A-Z before you enter a trade because your trade management will change as price starts to move after the trade. Entry and Stop loss can be determined before the trade but after that you can only have a 'general idea' as its impossible to know what price is going to do/how its going to move.

Just my opinion

Take care
Dan
  • #129,251
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:33am Dec 17, 2013 6:33am
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} And then realize it's been months, a year, 2 years, etc and you'll have gained that valuable commodity that no one else can provide for you - experience. It sounds funny but I think of making money as a side-effect of following my rules and I'm far more concerned about the process than the outcome. Regarding specific methods of management, I tend to avoid any trade management that involves a fixed number of pips or automatic trailing. The market knows market structure. It knows nothing about fixed numbers of pips, where your breakeven point...
Mates the part of Felix's comment i quoted is the most important to me. As far as i am concerned, once you are consistent enough your style will come to you in time so far you have decided to stick to PA as a trading method. After nothing less than 5 months of hard work trying to discover the type of trader that i am, controlling my emotions and knowing more/ less market analyses does not equivalent more/less positive outcome of trades but its all probabilities with more odds in ones favor when you understand the reason you make the choices you make and these is easiest when you keep things simple. For me its a great journey so far while i still hang arnd BE on my Demo account, still cutting down the number of trades i take, i no longer take full bar loss and tryn to look for entries which requires tiny stops. Hoping to get better at all these in the coming yr.


Now my main trouble is deciding how to take my profit. 1)I love Mikes method i.e waiting it all out until your tp is hit or your stop is taken out while trailing or 2) taking some off the table at trouble areas. I am often taken out at BE after price touches my FTA. I dont want to trade in a manner that i will have to split my profits. Here is a recent trade i took and was stop at BE


Jibson

May the odds be in your favor ...
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Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #129,252
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:52am Dec 17, 2013 6:52am
Quoting michal9
Thank you Felixcattus... this is helpful & motivating ;-) I journal all my trades, I have my excel with hundres of lines, one for each trade, with screenshots before and after (also sometimes entry), and a reason why I took this, with entry type (limit, break, market), with planned exit (e.g. TP at 2R), with "what I learned". I also analze my trading in myfxbook. I trade live, but microlots, a comfortable very small loss even if full day bar (sometimes I wonder if I should get back to demo, as james said in his "minimal requirements" post, but I...
Excellent. You're well ahead of the game. The answers to all the questions you have are in your journal.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,253
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:02am Dec 17, 2013 7:02am
Quoting jibson007
{quote} Now my main trouble is deciding how to take my profit. 1)I love Mikes method i.e waiting it all out until your tp is hit or your stop is taken out while trailing or 2) taking some off the table at trouble areas. I am often taken out at BE after price touches my FTA. I dont want to trade in a manner that i will have to split my profits. {image}
What does your journal say about how often are you taken out at BE after price touches your FTA - is it more often than not? If you review all your past trades, would you be more profitable if you get out at the FTA?

Definitely something I'd look into.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,254
  • Dec 17, 2013 7:33am Dec 17, 2013 7:33am
Quoting michal9
. What I will START doing now, following your comment is two things: 1. also journal my not taken trades .
What I do is pretty basic: I just mark the bar I decided not to trade, my trade management, and the pros and cons of the setup.
Then I watch it unfold, each day when I look at my charts.

To me it's as informative as playing it, but risk free...
Slow & steady
  • #129,255
  • Dec 17, 2013 8:39am Dec 17, 2013 8:39am
Quoting SmartPipping
Was just going through some of the posts and noticed this ... {quote} With all do respect, my experience has been that it is absolutely critical that you know your trade plan A-Z BEFORE you enter a trade. Don't leave your exit plan for "as you go along" ... your emotions are bound to kick in and you will likely end up getting attached to the trade. Just my 2 cents.

Hey SM

Thanks for dropping in. I agree and disagree and I'll explain why.


It is certainly crucial to know your game plan or story of your trade as I refer to it. But as a discretionary trader I can't know my full trade plan because new information constantly enters the market. I am flexible to this information as my decade of experience has taught me that the new information I can analyze to be now better informed on what to do. If one is a purely mechanical exiter then yes one would have to make no new decisions. But because I don't(and no one does) know exactly what the market will do after we enter I need that new information to do things such as adjust my stops depending on how the market reacts. The side that I do generally know is the type of trade and how that will play into my mgmt of the trade. Example is a trade in massive consolidation verse a trade breaking out. I generally employ very different trade mgmt ideas.

Of course we all do things different and nothing wrong with being more mechanical if it works


Best
Mike
  • #129,256
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:30am Dec 17, 2013 10:30am
Quoting felixcattus
{quote} What does your journal say about how often are you taken out at BE after price touches your FTA - is it more often than not? If you review all your past trades, would you be more profitable if you get out at the FTA? Definitely something I'd look into.

Thankx Felix. I have being looking into that,though at the moment my record shows higher number of trades taken out at BE after FTA was hit compare to that which blows through the FTA to my final target but i feel its because part of my method is no allowing a profit turn loss so i tend to strangle the trade by quickly going to BE not leaving enough breathing space for the trade. But as i am still learning just trying to get hints on how to filter those that will move beyond the FTA and the ones i will have to cut short when they hit FTA.


Jibson007

May the odds be in your favor ...
Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #129,257
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:17am Dec 17, 2013 11:17am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} stop above current weeks high now puts me nearly at b/e with my pullback entry it's crucial when moving a stop that you are moving it for specific reasons which do not negate the integrity of the trade. A stop loss should be the point at which your trade no longer is valid {image}

stop at b/e which is right near last weeks high
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  • #129,258
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:26am Dec 18, 2013 8:26am
Here is my last trade
Break of TL, PPZ, 365 and 150 EMAs, and later I saw also the Daily LCS.
I entered on the retrace when I saw the 1H PB that retested all the levels. Took profit at 1.44 BRN, PPZ and 61.8 ret.
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  • #129,259
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:10am Dec 18, 2013 11:10am
Quoting lenrod
Here is my last trade Break of TL, PPZ, 365 and 150 EMAs, and later I saw also the Daily LCS. I entered on the retrace when I saw the 1H PB that retested all the levels. Took profit at 1.44 BRN, PPZ and 61.8 ret. {image} {image}
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,260
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:23pm Dec 18, 2013 1:23pm
I start to hate these news events more and more every day ... 10 min of unnecessary chaos lol
got kicked out of G/U trade just so i could watch it go higer .
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