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AUD/USD

  • #70,721
  • Dec 16, 2013 11:50am Dec 16, 2013 11:50am
exited and waiting for next 1hr cndl
  • #70,722
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:04pm Dec 16, 2013 12:04pm
Here we go.
  • #70,723
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:26pm Dec 16, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting NJaNeer
Fixed {quote} You should be cheer-leading for people to buy so the price will drop.
it is the policy of the Central Bank of Australia) in addition to the market more buyers than sellers. all this just says that there is someone to sell, the price will go down slowly. Also the head of the Central Bank Glenn Stevens - "I see a price 0.8500." This price will be good for the economy. Do the findings themselves. you need small bounce or basic motion down trend?
sorry for my english.
  • #70,724
  • Dec 16, 2013 12:52pm Dec 16, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} But AUD still has the highest interest return and Australians are very conservative and there is no catalyst like there was in the USA to reduce those interest rates further.
biggest interest rate in Russia and Ukraine. and what do we have?
  • #70,725
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:08pm Dec 16, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting AlbertR
{quote} it is the policy of the Central Bank of Australia) in addition to the market more buyers than sellers. all this just says that there is someone to sell, the price will go down slowly. Also the head of the Central Bank Glenn Stevens - "I see a price 0.8500." This price will be good for the economy. Do the findings themselves. you need small bounce or basic motion down trend? sorry for my english.

you keep harping on the .8500 comment that glenn stevens didn't really make. did you read the transcripts of the article? you should read it. if you did read it he said ultimately for AU to feel the most comfortable " he sees the currency having an .8 in front of it, OVER TIME." the .85 number holds no relevance other than a headline that was an excuse for hedge fund and big player year end selling and unraveling of big positions over time, they needed the vols of NY and London together to unwind and a headline to trigger it. the paper that wrote the article regarding the .85 from stevens released the article to the markets at like midnight in Australia when 80 percent of the people were sleeping and it was during the NY and london markets, ironically when the most liquidity was there. my point is that, just like actors and actresses have PR companies that plant stories for public opinion, so does forex markets. they release stories and they have there own agenda for releasing them, and to take a very well placed and timed article that was vague and general at best in what he said, if you read it, as your trading blueprint in the near term, then it looks like the headline was a success.
  • #70,726
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:08pm Dec 16, 2013 1:08pm
Price wants down. You can do what you want. I sell from the 0.9450 point. and my loss limit in half profit at 0.9250. I risk a part profit. and my main target - below 0.8500
good luck
  • #70,727
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:17pm Dec 16, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting AlbertR
Price wants down. You can do what you want. I sell from the 0.9450 point. and my loss limit in half profit at 0.9250. I risk a part profit. and my main target - below 0.8500 good luck
I don't think there is any argument the AU is working its way down OVER TIME, but for the last few days I have read all your posts detailing how its gonna fall like an anchor based upon your analysis, which in most instances, is overzealous, incorrect, and manipulated in your favor. I wish you luck in your trading but it needs to be understood that there are many newbie traders on here, who look at these posts like the person posting them must know something. use discretion when posting your points unless you clearly dictate its in your opinion and not fact, so these newbies don't get confused or misled.
  • #70,728
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:27pm Dec 16, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting jdutch
{quote} I don't think there is any argument the AU is working its way down OVER TIME, but for the last few days I have read all your posts detailing how its gonna fall like an anchor based upon your analysis, which in most instances, is overzealous, incorrect, and manipulated in your favor. I wish you luck in your trading but it needs to be understood that there are many newbie traders on here, who look at these posts like the person posting them must know something. use discretion when posting your points unless you clearly dictate its in your...
Just one fact. The whole world is buying the Australian dollar. Where's the money? When more buyers in the market, what's happening? someone has to lose. Due to this fact alone. Need to sell, not buy.
I do not want to argue. because I'm not forcing anyone to buy.
as a glut on the market to buy. so in my opinion the money is at a price below.
  • #70,729
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:32pm Dec 16, 2013 1:32pm
all my posts - this is my personal opinion as a trader with experience. their decisions independently. competently use the risk management and always put limit losses.
  • #70,730
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:34pm Dec 16, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting AlbertR
{quote} Just one fact. The whole world is buying the Australian dollar. Where's the money? When more buyers in the market, what's happening? someone has to lose. Due to this fact alone. Need to sell, not buy. I do not want to argue. because I'm not forcing anyone to buy. as a glut on the market to buy. so in my opinion the money is at a price below.
I don't feel as though this is an argument, and Im also very confident that not everyone in the world is buying the AU. its still very popular for its interest rate on a carry for any trader, but a TON of hedge funds piled into the AU over the last few years and they need to start to unwind those positions as they prepare for an inevitable interest rate reduction prob within 12 mos, which takes time because they may not have the vols at the time or they are competing with other funds in an attempt to unwind at the same time and potentially same price to start unloading and unwinding at. nevertheless, we both agree there are buyers lined up down where you are noting, the question is when it gets down to your number, whether in the near term or long term, that is where individual preference comes into play.
  • #70,731
  • Dec 16, 2013 1:43pm Dec 16, 2013 1:43pm
my opinion Australian dollar falls during this month. Perhaps fall within a few days.
technical analysis here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...5260&page=3534
I'm just sharing my opinion.
important for beginners!
necessarily expect risks. Do not risk more than 1-2.5%.
  • #70,732
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:06pm Dec 16, 2013 2:06pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aussi...lMShn8FvQ.html
  • #70,733
  • Dec 16, 2013 3:44pm Dec 16, 2013 3:44pm
As soon as AUDUSD breaks the support I go Short for another 900 pips down (0.8800 to 0.7900).

So I would go long EURAUD and short AUDNZD as well.
$10K Live Account... 3 months investor testing!
  • #70,734
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:08pm Dec 16, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting AlbertR
{quote} biggest interest rate in Russia and Ukraine. and what do we have?
A market I have absolutely no excuse to invest in.
  • #70,735
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:09pm Dec 16, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting Hotkqash
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aussi...lMShn8FvQ.html
Bear in mind these guys get it wrong just as much as we do.
  • #70,736
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm Dec 16, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting jdutch
{quote} I don't feel as though this is an argument, and Im also very confident that not everyone in the world is buying the AU. its still very popular for its interest rate on a carry for any trader, but a TON of hedge funds piled into the AU over the last few years and they need to start to unwind those positions as they prepare for an inevitable interest rate reduction prob within 12 mos, which takes time because they may not have the vols at the time or they are competing with other funds in an attempt to unwind at the same time and potentially...
Not saying you're wrong, but Wells Fargo is pitching a higher interest rate environment. Just thought I'd share that for shits and giggles. Personally, I have no objection to a higher interest rate in either the USA or AUS. But why do you think the RBA interest rate reduction is 'inevitable'?
  • #70,737
  • Edited 5:39pm Dec 16, 2013 5:15pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} Bear in mind these guys get it wrong just as much as we do.
yeah man,ya right. but i guess this one is reliable; i think so bcos the RBA is the one calling it
  • #70,738
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:32pm Dec 16, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} Not saying you're wrong, but Wells Fargo is pitching a higher interest rate environment. Just thought I'd share that for shits and giggles. Personally, I have no objection to a higher interest rate in either the USA or AUS. But why do you think the RBA interest rate reduction is 'inevitable'?
listen, I would love for the AU interest rate to keep climbing and I hope wells is right(although it will take a lonnnnnngggg time for US to match those AU rates), and considering im a retail trader who doesn't buy 15-20 plus lots at each and every pop, its easy for me to get in and out of trades while enjoying the swap, but for hedge fund x or Y, being caught over invested in a currency that has the potential of a rate reduction, even the potential rhetoric that debases equity, that its govt clearly so desperately wants, is why were seeing such an aggressive sell off from the unwinding, just based upon the potential exposure on the amt invested. I used the term inevitable because I personally think that is what its going to take to get the currency to a rate that is productive across the board and most beneficial to the aussie economy and what I personally think stevens sees as an ideal mark. I don't personally think IMO that they can do it with out a rate cut because you will always have larger sums of money and retail traders like myself diving in there to utilize the swap and carry, but the other side of the argument is that they need the investment into the AU to carry at least a good part of the economy, so let me say, the inevitable rate cut would be IMO for a quarter of a percent, but wouldn't be too much to push away the constant flows they need and have been relying on.
  • #70,739
  • Dec 16, 2013 5:38pm Dec 16, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} Not saying you're wrong, but Wells Fargo is pitching a higher interest rate environment. Just thought I'd share that for shits and giggles. Personally, I have no objection to a higher interest rate in either the USA or AUS. But why do you think the RBA interest rate reduction is 'inevitable'?
While "inevitable" may be said to be a strong language in the context that anything can happen,I hold the view that a rate cut is a "necessity" for the the good of the Australian economy.If this wasn`t the case the RBA wouldn`t have slashed rate at all,and recent rhetoric from him is pointing toward further rate cuts(remember he said last week that he wants the oz around 0.85000;and he can cut rate to achieve that), bcos a strong oz is not a good thing for the economy
  • #70,740
  • Dec 16, 2013 6:21pm Dec 16, 2013 6:21pm
Quoting mm2mm
to me it looks like bear trap long from here
Seems not, price still resisted by .8968. Any slight rallies are heavily sold down. We are still deep down in bear territory.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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