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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #1,441
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:10pm Dec 2, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting Magix
{quote}
Setting a stop loss and tp on random trades with ambiguous numbers is nothing more than a gamble...but then again, given what I read on peoples trades, a lot of those are as random as coin toss trades anyways. Gamble in and gamble out... I'd be willing to bet that it is this kind of logic that keeps you out of the mainstream EURUSD thread and others of it's general calibre.

I agree completely on that, most people might aswell flip a coin on direction or have a method which is real, which provides an entry setup and sensible SL with a good R:R and win rate, expectation.

I've been working on this for YEARS so I know entirely how hard it is, most people just have not got a clue what there up against.

If you read back I stated :-

Tight SL's basically suicide ( sub 10 say ), Loose SL's 20 - 30 and trading no SL if your willing to exit losers, will likely work out the same profit / loss wise over all. Sometimes the SL saves your butt and other times the market turns just after it and wastes money. ( for an average trader I'll add )

Better traders can ofcourse out perform!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,442
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:20pm Dec 2, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting Magix
Banks, Schmanks... Do you seriously believe that brokers don't sweep for SLs? Not all...but, bucketshops. It's a known fact. Refusing to fill at TPs and sweeping out of bounds for SLs...I been there. Shit, even anybody to use an EA knows this. Thus the reason that specific commands were made to hide these points. It ain't some conspiracy theory. I been in this boat, adapted my trade style to never use either point. I manually trigger out stops, and manually trigger out profits, and Even on those, watch the spread widen to razor off a shade of trade....
Bucketshops may widen the spread if they have a dealing desk and a full of gullible traders. But there are always bottom feeders in any area.....FX Brokerage would be no exception. I have personally seen some of the underhanded tactics used by bucketshops to (virtually) steal the account....and in one persons case, that's exactly what they did. That bucketshop (a NZ one too) is no longer in business. The old adage 'if you want to keep your customers, you have to keep your customers happy', rings true here, and people walk. Those that don't walk will lose a lot of money. Those that do walk, and/or have more than one brain cell, will do their research to find reputable brokers who play the game in a fair and upfront way.


Quoting Magix
As for the General Populous, I still maintain the same. Setting a stop loss and tp on random trades with ambiguous numbers is nothing more than a gamble...but then again, given what I read on peoples trades, a lot of those are as random as coin toss trades anyways.
Absolutely...I agree. 'Random' being the operative word here. Anyone who trades randomly, with or without a SL is gambling. But that's not what BJ said. He said that 'those who use SL's are gambling.' He did not qualify that statement with anything....he simply grouped all those who use a SL as gamblers....and you know that this is just bullshit!

Quoting Magix
I'd be willing to bet that it is this kind of logic that keeps you out of the mainstream EURUSD thread and others of it's general calibre.
What keeps me out of the EURUSD thread is the complete anarchy that is in control there. It is not a place for discussing trades.....it's a place for fighting, for anger, for ego, and for outright deceit. As AK4X said, people go there for these things in the same way that people like to see car crashes at the Indy 500. The race is not as important as the crashes....and it's the crashes that help put bums on seats...same for that thread. It's good for business for this place, but not good for the newer traders.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,443
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:39pm Dec 2, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting realjumper
As AK4X said, people go there for these things in the same way that people like to see car crashes at the Indy 500. The race is not as important as the crashes....and it's the crashes that help put bums on seats...same for that thread. It's good for business for this place, but not good for the newer traders.

People will always rigorously defend their position, even harder when they are financially vested.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,444
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:42pm Dec 2, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} People will always rigorously defend their position, even harder when they are financially vested.
Indeed.....they will defend even if they do not really understand what it is they are actually defending!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #1,445
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:46pm Dec 2, 2013 7:46pm
Too much dogfight here. How can I unsubscribed?
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #1,446
  • Dec 3, 2013 6:38am Dec 3, 2013 6:38am
Thread's going nowhere fast. It could've used a Stop Loss
  • #1,447
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:04am Dec 3, 2013 7:04am
Wow this is 75 pages of anger. I can't believe it's still going...
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #1,448
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:42am Dec 3, 2013 7:42am
Quoting JoeNY
Wow this is 75 pages of anger. I can't believe it's still going...
Neither can I. The holy grail's possessor was already suspended... Then *women-insult* quest began... What's next?
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #1,449
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:50am Dec 3, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Neither can I. The holy grail's possessor was already suspended... Then *women-insult* quest began... What's next?
Thats strange you have been on the last 20 pages 👄
  • #1,450
  • Dec 3, 2013 8:57am Dec 3, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Jexter
Thread's going nowhere fast. It could've used a Stop Loss
Best post of the thread.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #1,451
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:23am Dec 3, 2013 11:23am
Quoting mister me
{quote} Thats strange you have been on the last 20 pages 👄
That's not at all strange compared to what you, mister, recently wrote.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #1,452
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:14pm Dec 3, 2013 4:14pm
Whats strange about common sense. Not everybody can be or do everything.if people find that unfair then they should not have considered believing they can
  • #1,453
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:57am Dec 4, 2013 12:57am
This is the funniest, most entertaining thread on the forum
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #1,454
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:06am Dec 4, 2013 7:06am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} Oh Please, please! Send me those shot putters!! One thing about forex is that no matter what your sexual or other preferences, you can still trade. By the way I am still here, still trading without a fixed stop loss. According to some, that is even worse than being straight ! Two years now with no fixed stop loss and counting...
Oh the shot putters.not pretty I dont want to upset a delicate thread such as this one.

Umm this stop loss thing !!!
Placing no stops is fine.trading a given range and closing at best possible when caught on the wrong side could. Be a profitable way to trade.if closing out is used.the problem is most dont close out.they get caught in the larger range and that throws there methods maths off key
  • #1,455
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:23am Dec 4, 2013 7:23am
Quoting mister me
{quote} Oh the shot putters.not pretty I dont want to upset a delicate thread such as this one. Umm this stop loss thing !!! Placing no stops is fine.trading a given range and closing at best possible when caught on the wrong side could. Be a profitable way to trade.if closing out is used.the problem is most dont close out.they get caught in the larger range and that throws there methods maths off key

Yep they end up, holding and hoping for ever and ever and ever keep meaning to get out on the next run your way, but it's never quite enough so you hold for more and it's a downward spiral.

If you've got the mentality to not do above then fair enough, but I'm strongly in the above, infact I was moving SL's and nearly putting a 20% ding in my account yesterday, got out at BE, GA Long, which 30mins after I quit jumped up 100pips LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,456
  • Edited 5:27pm Dec 4, 2013 5:12pm | Edited 5:27pm
To those saying this thread is a waste of time, it's not. At least you can see the arguments for and against trading without stop loss.

However, these threads don't really get that far; the main reason being no one is going to divulge their trading secrets. Everyone will dance around how this is beneficial or that is beneficial but we cannot engage in a real conversation unless all the cards are on the table. It'll always be "Hey! I don't trade with a stop loss! I'm a bad ass!", followed by "You don't trade with a stop loss? I'm telling my mommy on you!!".

Either way it's food for thought. Forget these hard coded rules some of you have. R:R, money management, 2:1, no stop loss, nedging, blah, blah, blah. Just make it work. And as long as it works don't let anyone try to convince you otherwise.

Nothing's new. There's tons of ego's on FF. Some of them get butt hurt more easily than others.

Peace yall.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #1,457
  • Dec 15, 2013 9:58am Dec 15, 2013 9:58am
What do you think about the following approach?

Situation
Let's say you trade price action at key levels, in line with the higher timeframe trend.
Let's say there is a bulish pinbar and you plan to go long, at market, on close of the bar.
Let's say the low of the pinbar is 50 pips away from the current price.

Trading it in a "classical" way, you would place a stop 50 pips away. Maybe 50 plus spread. Maybe 50 plus spread plus a "few pips".
And you would adjust the position size to lose a comfortable-for-you amount of money, e.g. 1% of your account, or a bit more.
And your TP would be, say, 100 - 150 pips away (for a 2-3R), or at the next hurdle.

My experice with trading like this? LOTS of losses. And in MOST cases market going directly to my planned TP level, after hitting my stop.

Of course you can say becasue I was taking poor setups , and this would be fore sure partly true, but still, in MOST cases soon after the price was going to my TP. So it leads me to believe my SLs were too close.


Idea
Use an emergency stop and a mental stop.
Let's say in case of an EMERGENCY black swan type of event you want to lose more more than 5% of your account (we are talking one in a few years kind of events). Assuming you look at the market every 24 hours, we could place the emergency stop, say, 250 pips away. Hard stop at a broker.

Set the position size in a way that a loss of 250 pips will equal your 5%. (equivalent of losing 1% for a 50 pips move)

Additionally, you write down and execute in a disciplined way the MENTAL stop. Lets say, if the market CLOSES 10 pips below the pinbar low.


Pros and cons
You will avoid many loseses.
Your average loss will be slightly higher (in pips) vs. if you had a stop (as it can CLOSE further below your level).
But this should be balanced by the fact that very often you will hit a TP instead of SL.
You will still avoid a catastrophic loss thanks to emergency stop.


What do you say?
Of course the risk is you will not execute your mental SL and just wait for emergency SL to be hit, in which case your average loss will be 250 pips and your average winner a small one, which is not a recipe for success unless you have a fantastic win ratio. But I trust I can execute my written plan.

Does this look like a good idea? I read in every book that trading w/o a SL is a way to go bankrupt. Fine, but how about trading with emergency SL and a planned mental SL at a place that really invalidaes my setup? (idea to aviod being stopped out by spikes is so compelling ;-)
Michal9
  • #1,458
  • Dec 15, 2013 10:22am Dec 15, 2013 10:22am
Not sure. You'd want to give it a try in demo for a while. :-/

Why have a set 250 pips? Shouldn't it be calculated to be something related to how the price has been moving recently (or farther, depending on your definition of 'recently')?

I'd think that an Emergency SL should really be something that might only happen once in a very rare while. If your ESL is too close (as with the 50 pip ones), then you might get hit often enough to take chunks out of your account every few...days? Weeks?

Then again, if you're getting plenty of solid wins between these uncommon(?) SL's, perhaps you'll easily offset the down draw.

Give it a go and let us know how you get on.
  • #1,459
  • Dec 15, 2013 10:23am Dec 15, 2013 10:23am
Quoting michal9
What do you think about the following approach? Situation Let's say you trade price action at key levels, in line with the higher timeframe trend. Let's say there is a bulish pinbar and you plan to go long, at market, on close of the bar. Let's say the low of the pinbar is 50 pips away from the current price. Trading it in a "classical" way, you would place a stop 50 pips away. Maybe 50 plus spread. Maybe 50 plus spread plus a "few pips". And you would adjust the position size to lose a comfortable-for-you amount of money, e.g. 1% of your account,...
In general, this looks like a good idea: The only thing I would do different is use a smaller lot size so you can afford a deeper emergency stop loss. If you can make a profit using the small size for a season or two, cautiously increase the lot size.

That will give you more time to figure out what works best for you.
  • #1,460
  • Dec 15, 2013 10:44am Dec 15, 2013 10:44am
Nefser, thanks, the 250 pips for Emergency SL was just an example... I would use something like 5*ATR(20), or place it behind 2 major key S/R levels, etc. I think it will often be around 200-400 pips, depending on a pair and volatiliy of course.

Rap Skallion, thanks, yes the idea is to use position size so small that hitting the Emergency SL means a loss of , say 5%, or even less at first. I can think of going even deeper, to say, be more of less comfortable with a loss of 500 pips, but then the winners will be very small...
Michal9
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