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Simple EMA mechanical system!

  • #61
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:01am Sep 6, 2013 6:01am
Quoting vothienphu93
Hello, Do you know how to make the M15 data on GBPUSD longer? I can only test from 14/6/2013 until now. I need more datas to have a reliable track record. Over 2 years is PERFECT !
Go to.... Tools -> History centre -> ...download any data that you want
Lets make some green pips
  • #62
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:08am Sep 6, 2013 6:08am
Quoting chayon
{quote} How could you say Like that....50% win does it make any sense??
I think what he meant was..winning BIG on 50% of his total trades but making small loss on the other 50%
Lets make some green pips
  • #63
  • Sep 6, 2013 6:53am Sep 6, 2013 6:53am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting 4rx
{quote} Go to.... Tools -> History centre -> ...download any data that you want
Datas downloaded here are only garbage ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #64
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:09am Sep 6, 2013 7:09am
Quoting 4rx
{quote} I think what he meant was..winning BIG on 50% of his total trades but making small loss on the other 50%
Thank you so much !

I don't want to debate with some guys who " loves Maths " around here ! Because even a secondary school student knows why ?

But because I really love Maths. Maths must be correct and respected.So I have to say, why my strategy is still being profitable although I have traded over 80 trades?

R:R=1:1
Win rate=50%
=> Breakeven strategy? ( Totally wrong)

It should be in this way:

R:R=1:1
Win rate = 50%
1R = 1R' = 1R'' = 1R'''=..... = 100$ (for example)
=> Breakeven strategy => Right conclusion

But what about in this way:

R:R=1:1
(Win rate)= 40% , total 20 trades => 8 trades win
R':R'=1:1
(Win rate)=60% , total 30 trades => 18 trades win
=> Total winning rate = ( 8 + 18 )/ (20+30) = 26/50 ? 50%

If R'>R => negative edge system
if R'<R => positive edge system

That's why this amazing result is happening. I don't know what will happen in future. But this is the reason why a system with R:R=1:1 and WR=50% could be profitable.

Oh ! poor guy

SO ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, DO NOT BELIEVE YOU ARE RIGHT! JUST SEE THE PERFORMANCE AND SAY SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIONALY
  • #65
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:23am Sep 6, 2013 7:23am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
If you want to compare R and R', they must be based on same number of trades.

50% remain 50% in any case with 1:1. You will always be BE - spread ... in the long run.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #66
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:29am Sep 6, 2013 7:29am
Quoting FerruFx
If you want to compare R and R', they must be based on same number of trades. 50% remain 50% in any case with 1:1. You will always be BE - spread ... in the long run.
I know you are a coder . So you are better in maths than me.

But if you want to prove something true. You need Evidence, even Maths. Just show me why? My strategy doesn't have a WR = 50%, it's nearly 50%. So, just prove me, why?
  • #67
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:33am Sep 6, 2013 7:33am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting vothienphu93
{quote} I know you are a coder . So you are better in maths than me. But if you want to prove something true. You need Evidence, even Maths. Just show me why? My strategy doesn't have a WR = 50%, it's nearly 50%. So, just prove me, why?
R:R=1:1
(Win rate)= 40% , total 30 trades => 12 trades win
R':R'=1:1
(Win rate)=60% , total 30 trades => 18 trades win
=> Total winning rate = ( 12 + 18 )/ (30+30) = 30/60 = 50%
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #68
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:38am Sep 6, 2013 7:38am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} R:R=1:1 (Win rate)= 40% , total 30 trades => 12 trades win R':R'=1:1 (Win rate)=60% , total 30 trades => 18 trades win => Total winning rate = ( 12 + 18 )/ (30+30) = 30/60 = 50%
So what's wrong with that?

I mean that in some strategy, although the total winning rate is 50%, but the winning rate with the trades where the risk is large is superior than the winning rate with the trades where the risk is small. That's why right now the strategy is temporary profitable. That's why I need a robot to check this will happen in the long run or not?
  • #69
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:44am Sep 6, 2013 7:44am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting vothienphu93
{quote} So what's wrong with that? I mean that in some strategy, although the total winning rate is 50%, but the winning rate with the trades where the risk is large is superior than the winning rate with the trades where the risk is small. That's why right now the strategy is temporary profitable. That's why I need a robot to check this will happen in the long run or not?
Of course if your risk is higher on the 60% winning rate strategy, the global will be positive ... In this case, what would be the purpose of trading the 40% strategy ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #70
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:15am Sep 6, 2013 8:15am
vothien - you're wasting your time arguing with the haters on this thread, and you're not getting any closer to your goal. I suggest you download Forex Strategy Builder from http://forexsb.com/ (it's free), which will allow you to easily and quickly backtest this strategy, no coding required. Plus it will also be able to trade the strategy for you going forward.
  • #71
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:58am Sep 6, 2013 8:58am
Quoting TheMaxx
vothien - you're wasting your time arguing with the haters on this thread, and you're not getting any closer to your goal. I suggest you download Forex Strategy Builder from http://forexsb.com/ (it's free), which will allow you to easily and quickly backtest this strategy, no coding required. Plus it will also be able to trade the strategy for you going forward.
What is the point backtesting a strategy which is mathematically wrong?

1+1=2. Believe it or not. Like it or not. Accept it or not. 1+1=2, for you, for me, for everybody. It has always been, it will always be.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #72
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:17am Sep 6, 2013 9:17am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} What is the point backtesting a strategy which is mathematically wrong? 1+1=2. Believe it or not. Like it or not. Accept it or not. 1+1=2, for you, for me, for everybody. It has always been, it will always be.
If he backtests accurately he will see he is wrong, and then he can look at ways of improving his strategy.

I'm finding a lot of negativity of FF, and it is not constructive.
  • #73
  • Sep 6, 2013 10:18am Sep 6, 2013 10:18am
How does wasting days backtesting the obvious can be any useful? Maths say he is wrong. Therefore he is wrong. Full stop.
Shall he backtest until a cherry picked period of time will fit his ego? He already did that (post#2).

It's not a matter of being negative, it is a matter of being objective. This is constructive.
Is it negativism to say "Hey guy watch out there is a wall just ahead". Do you prefer I let him believe he will walk throught the bricks?

A edgeless system will not produce long term profits. Not for me, not for you, not for him, not for anybody. FF is driven by whim and wishful thinking. People prefer dreaming and believing rather than thinking and facing the facts.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #74
  • Sep 7, 2013 9:08am Sep 7, 2013 9:08am
Quoting PipMeUp
Is it negativism to say "Hey guy watch out there is a wall just ahead". Do you prefer I let him believe he will walk throught the bricks? A edgeless system will not produce long term profits. Not for me, not for you, not for him, not for anybody. FF is driven by whim and wishful thinking. People prefer dreaming and believing rather than thinking and facing the facts.
So true. People who are being "negative" are those who have been there, done that. It is good that someone slaps you in the face when you start to dream with open eyes...
... but... noone has evered learned anything from other people mistakes.
  • #75
  • Sep 16, 2013 8:02am Sep 16, 2013 8:02am
hi thien pu,

try this ea, i only code it to buy only for now. See if it meets ur rules/requirements. I haven't tried it on live trading yet, only on tester.
The result is interesting, some trades reach TP after several days, those are the big fish though.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EMA vothienpu.ex4   3 KB | 369 downloads
  • #76
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:49am Nov 12, 2013 1:49am
Hi chiqunk, can you set the ea to open averaging post and profit averaging?....
  • #77
  • Nov 30, 2013 5:24am Nov 30, 2013 5:24am
added new parameter TradeLot, requested by vothienpu.

hi centrinos, could you elaborate more on averaging post and profit averaging. Some examples and calculations could be very helpful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EMA vothienpu.ex4   5 KB | 437 downloads
  • #78
  • Dec 1, 2013 6:49am Dec 1, 2013 6:49am
This strategy is the Rennee Horner 34 ema grab strategy. Why 34? Because 34 is a fib number. To stay in fib mode use a 13 ema vice the 12 ema. A ranging market is easily identified---the 34 ema wave will be flat---trade only a wave pointing NE or SE. Best traded manually.
  • #79
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:45pm Dec 14, 2013 7:45pm
Hi chiqunk,
Can you try to modify the R:R of the EA to 2:1 ? which means 50% SL,may want to see the result... Thanks
  • #80
  • Last Post: Mar 7, 2014 11:16am Mar 7, 2014 11:16am
Quoting chiqunk
added new parameter TradeLot, requested by vothienpu. hi centrinos, could you elaborate more on averaging post and profit averaging. Some examples and calculations could be very helpful. {file}

Is it possible to get the source code ?
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