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  • #2,141
  • Edited 1:03pm Dec 13, 2013 12:51pm | Edited 1:03pm
I would bet on a nice little drop in TWTR, huge volume traded at the IPO, some will dump before year end, actually could be more than a little drop, makes spreading a gamble, but what isn't?

Am looking at long Jan 18 $48p @ $1.35, short Dec 21 $50p @ $0.70, net $0.70 debit, but will prolly wait to see if TWTR can put in another high Friday...

..maybe I should be bullish TWTR? I could long Feb $65c @ $4.00, sell Dec 21 $60c @ $1.20, net $2.80 debit, sell calls again in Jan.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,142
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:58pm Dec 13, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} these days, best to long puts after market sell-offs. UVXY will mean revert on a flat day following a heavy selloff day. US stock futures are red atm, maybe see some continuation of Wed's selling, but let's try a paper trade: based on Wed's close, UVXY lt $20.63, long 12/13 $20p @ $0.35... This will be a good weekend backtest exercise, only problem is UVXY only been around since 11/2011...
markets up, ^VIX down 1.5%, UVXY flat....12/13 $20p @ $0.03....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,143
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:11pm Dec 13, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} markets up, ^VIX down 1.5%, UVXY flat....12/13 $20p @ $0.03....
not much volume traded, no follow through
  • #2,144
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:22pm Dec 13, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} not much volume traded, no follow through
UVXY very spikey, I haven't figured it out yet, I expect lots of traders are scalping it outright
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,145
  • Dec 13, 2013 2:15pm Dec 13, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} $ strength is coming, but considering the world and his wife seem to have been short euro, I guess it was postponed til next week Similarly gold, tried to shake out a few weak shorts, but failed. Looks for all the world like a double bottom test sub 1200 will present itself soon. Just bought 10 EEM 43/42 bear call credit spreads for -0.34. Or sold for 0.34, if you prefer. Anyway, short the 42 long the 43 for protection ostensibly but really just to bring the margin down and get the ROC up. I prolly shoulda gone for 44/42 thinking about...
Hello fellas, that EEM spread expired worthless. I quite like EEM here, but for some variety, just did the following on IWM, because that is my bull of choice...

BOT 2 IWM JAN15 '16 109C @12.68
SLD 2 IWM DEC20 '13 110P @ 1.09

I didn't do this as a spread..couldn't get filled on it near mid so just legged into it at as close to mid as I could be bothered to wait for to get executed.
If my 110Ps end up ITM next Friday I shall just roll the bastards. I think this market could stay up here for a year or more. Probably saying that we'll drop 10% next week LOL, market timing, who can do it really, nobody can. Hence, just a couple of contracts, a little bit of money for not too much risk. Trying to rein in that greed of mine that gets me into so much trouble.

Hope you've had a good week..mine has been sweaty but ended much better than it looked midweek.
Good luck all, over and out.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,146
  • Dec 13, 2013 2:45pm Dec 13, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I quite like EEM here, but for some variety, just did the following on IWM, because that is my bull of choice... BOT 2 IWM JAN15 '16 109C @12.68 SLD 2 IWM DEC20 '13 110P @ 1.09
Howdy BW, and good luck on that trade. I'd have to bet your Dec puts will cost you, but you will have many opp's to sell calls against those 2016 long calls. You could sell $5 otm ($115) Jan 18 calls for $~0.50 or more - the time to do that would be as IWM was running well into >$5 mult-day gain...not necessarily a bearish play, just spreading to milk back the premium you have sunk in the 2016 calls. That's the way I like to spread, anyway...although I don't usually look that far out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,147
  • Edited 3:43pm Dec 13, 2013 3:00pm | Edited 3:43pm
Quoting The Fool
I would bet on a nice little drop in TWTR, huge volume traded at the IPO, some will dump before year end, actually could be more than a little drop, makes spreading a gamble, but what isn't? Am looking at long Jan 18 $48p @ $1.35, short Dec 21 $50p @ $0.70, net $0.70 debit, but will prolly wait to see if TWTR can put in another high Friday... ..maybe I should be bullish TWTR? I could long Feb $65c @ $4.00, sell Dec 21 $60c @ $1.20, net $2.80 debit, sell calls again in Jan..... {image}
TWTR 5-day run <$46 to >$59. Caught looking at the close, will see if they can hit new high > $60 tomorrow....

I am thinking of a call spread like, buy 2/22 $70c @ $3.70, sell 12/21 $61.50c @ $1.70...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,148
  • Edited 3:37pm Dec 13, 2013 3:13pm | Edited 3:37pm
GMCR another runner I have been waiting to kill.

~50% of float short, shares outstanding 149MM, shares short 41MM, on a $12 (20%) run the last 4 weeks...could be short squeeze in effect, see now sharp run-ups get sold down hard but dips are short-lived.

closed today $72.66, hope for more upside tomorrow, then maybe something like...

sell 12/21 $72c @ $2.03, buy Jan 18 $75c @ $2.65, look for around $0.60 net debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,149
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:46pm Dec 13, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Howdy BW, and good luck on that trade. I'd have to bet your Dec puts will cost you, but you will have many opp's to sell calls against those 2016 long calls. You could sell $5 otm ($115) Jan 18 calls for $~0.50 or more - the time to do that would be as IWM was running well into >$5 mult-day gain...not necessarily a bearish play, just spreading to milk back the premium you have sunk in the 2016 calls. That's the way I like to spread, anyway...although I don't usually look that far out....
Hey TF,
I'm not quite sure why I ended up with a long call and short put. I'm still trying to work it out...but I'm happy with the legs individually, even if the short puts aren't offset margin wise by the long calls. But yes it might be a good idea to sell some OTM calls against the LEAPS even for just maybe 25cents or so. That's $50 minus commissions..every little helps. And anyway, it's not like I'm planning to sell the LEAPS anyway, even if we do go up.
Btw it's the first time I've done LEAPS myself...it felt a bit odd but logically it makes sense. Got to be Spock-like in as many ways as possible to make this thing work, I think.
Cheers
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,150
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:54pm Dec 13, 2013 3:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TWTR 5-day run <$46 to >$59. Caught looking at the close, will see if they can hit new high > $60 tomorrow.... I am thinking of a call spread like, buy 2/22 $70c @ $3.70, sell 12/21 $61.50c @ $1.70...
Presumably you mean Monday
Sounds like a high-risk play; is that a bullspread or bearspread? There's no T/A to give upside resistance. God knows, it could do a google and run and run. So if it's a bullspread it could work. Looking a FB I wonder if TWTR is where FB was about a week into August this year..could be worth a shot with an OTM bullspread. But I've no idea on prices, I guess they're quite expensive....but this could be the next fever stock - TSLA, FB, NFLX...etc etc all hated, and the hedge fund darlings...
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,151
  • Edited 4:17pm Dec 13, 2013 4:04pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
But yes it might be a good idea to sell some OTM calls against the LEAPS even for just maybe 25cents or so. That's $50 minus commissions..every little helps. And anyway, it's not like I'm planning to sell the LEAPS anyway, even if we do go up. Btw it's the first time I've done LEAPS myself...it felt a bit odd but logically it makes sense. Got to be Spock-like in as many ways as possible to make this thing work, I think. Cheers
sure, might as well put that margin to work. Looking at IWM I see it makes some $5-$10 runs in a month then gets sold off, so I would wait to sell calls ($5 otm front month) at the top of one of those $5+ runs, calls will be richer and IWM will be more likely to pull back after the run...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,152
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:15pm Dec 13, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Presumably you mean Monday Sounds like a high-risk play; is that a bullspread or bearspread? There's no T/A to give upside resistance. God knows, it could do a google and run and run. So if it's a bullspread it could work. Looking a FB I wonder if TWTR is where FB was about a week into August this year..could be worth a shot with an OTM bullspread. But I've no idea on prices, I guess they're quite expensive....but this could be the next fever stock - TSLA, FB, NFLX...etc etc all hated, and the hedge fund darlings... {image}
right, Monday, damn. Well I am bullish TWTR but I think it could stage a pullback next week, so the idea is to risk something on the 12/21 short calls to help fund the Feb long calls. I will feel better about this if it runs past $60 next week early, and if so my strikes might change a little but the idea is the same.

As I mentioned above I think there's alot of bigdog long interest in TWTR dating back to the IPO and I'd expect to see some yearend profit taking there. But I could be wrong....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,153
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:42pm Dec 13, 2013 4:42pm
I might follow BW's lead & look a little further out & take a punt on NBG:

Buy Jan '15 $7c @ $0.35, looks like front month $1 otm calls can be sold for $$0.15-0.20...would just need to prove that concept a couple times to be in credit, with luck could do it many more than that with 12 months to work. NBG has gone <$3 to >$6 last 2 qtrs...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,154
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:26pm Dec 13, 2013 5:26pm
I might take a bullish punt on IBM in some shape or form predicated on the 200 week MA holding. I sold a few bull put spreads a couple of months ago based on this idea; they worked well.
It's a high-priced share so the extra challenge is in constructing a low risk (preferably very low risk) spread that pays out on sideways to upwards action. Gotta be careful...a couple of dollars or more drop from here could set off quite a drop. It might not be possible though.
Some homework for myself perhaps for the weekend.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,155
  • Edited Dec 14, 2013 12:41am Dec 13, 2013 9:46pm | Edited Dec 14, 2013 12:41am
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101269612?__s...0rock%20market

SO, how ya gonna play the FOMC bomb? With Treasury auctions also midweek maybe time for a TLT strangle? (TLT lt $103.12)

long 12/21 $105c - short 12/21 $101p....about $0.20/$0.20, $0.40 debit. Same thing fpr 12/27 a little over $0.50 debit.

Tall order for TLT, though, 1-day moves of >$1.50 uncommon. Anything surprising out of the FOMC tho could push 10y rates above 3.00 and TLT to $101 or below. Heavy move upside possible but less likely, imo. So maybe overweight the puts or .....

...another straight play is long volatility, look for a pullback in UVXY on Monday, could easily see 1-day 10% ($2) moves there, UVXY 12/21 $24c @ $0.65....

...FDX earnings out FOMC day, 12/18....also ORCL...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,156
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:48am Dec 14, 2013 8:48am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101269612?__s...0rock%20market SO, how ya gonna play the FOMC bomb? With Treasury auctions also midweek maybe time for a TLT strangle? (TLT lt $103.12) long 12/21 $105c - short 12/21 $101p....about $0.20/$0.20, $0.40 debit. Same thing fpr 12/27 a little over $0.50 debit. Tall order for TLT, though, 1-day moves of >$1.50 uncommon. Anything surprising out of the FOMC tho could push 10y rates above 3.00 and TLT to $101 or...
TLT is a must for me, best take a strangle long position 2 strike out for pennies on the day of FOMC
  • #2,157
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:00am Dec 14, 2013 9:00am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101269612?__s...0rock%20market SO, how ya gonna play the FOMC bomb? With Treasury auctions also midweek maybe time for a TLT strangle? (TLT lt $103.12) long 12/21 $105c - short 12/21 $101p....about $0.20/$0.20, $0.40 debit. Same thing fpr 12/27 a little over $0.50 debit. Tall order for TLT, though, 1-day moves of >$1.50 uncommon. Anything surprising out of the FOMC tho could push 10y rates above 3.00 and TLT to $101 or...
TLT...one scenario...market has possibly overegged the pudding, correction possible....this would also probably send a lot of USDJPY longs and EURUSD and GBPUSD shorts to the knacker's yard
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,158
  • Edited 1:37pm Dec 14, 2013 12:39pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} TLT...one scenario...market has possibly overegged the pudding, correction possible....knacker's yard {image}
quite possibibble, I's been thinking along those lines (green) and considered a long strangle out to January & maybe catch both ends, but I like Cecil's plan, too.

...ok, I've had a little Irish coffee to wake me up and here's my FOMC prediction:

They'll announce a first step in QE pullback. This will be a fractional amount, like $10-$15MM out of the $85MM per month, to begin at a specific time. They'll site continuously improving econ conditions & stress that rates will remain low for a longlong time, etc. Really, though, they had to do it to stop me from posting bad tapir pics and puns on FF.

So, if you look at the CNBC article I posted above, the author says the 12/18 meeting is a bad time to announce a taper because of the low liquidity there in the pre-Christmas week. Actually, that's the best time. Stocks will get hammered and the dip will be deep, maybe as much as 10% in the S&P in the last weeks of 2013, but the dip will be short-lived and bought aggressively in January. A short, sharp shock - and then it'll be over. Fed Santa delivers the correction the stock market has been longing for.

Treasury rates will go up & T10y yield will settle above 3% in January, but a lot has been baked in there, that's what the last 8 months of Fed head hemming and hawing bought.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,159
  • Dec 14, 2013 1:23pm Dec 14, 2013 1:23pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barric...144711197.html

If what I predict above comes to pass, could be the nugget that finally breaks the pile through the $1,200 floor.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,160
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:40pm Dec 16, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sure, might as well put that margin to work. Looking at IWM I see it makes some $5-$10 runs in a month then gets sold off, so I would wait to sell calls ($5 otm front month) at the top of one of those $5+ runs, calls will be richer and IWM will be more likely to pull back after the run... {image}
Sold 2 IWM DEC 20 '13 112Cs @ 0.78 each earlier against those long 109C LEAPS; as you pointed out, it makes sense and provides a bit of protection should we get a dip. As soon as I sold 'em I thought, shoulda gone for the 113s; less money but better chance of keeping it. I think we could see 113 this week. I don't think we'll get a dip from here but we may do - to say, 108, 109. Nobody knows. Price landing anywhere between 108 and 113 at 9pm GMT Friday (4PM EST) will suit me just fine. IWM closed 111.41.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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