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  • #2,121
  • Dec 10, 2013 11:18am Dec 10, 2013 11:18am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Opened another trade today on a LONG FCX put , the $34 put for 5c or $5 per contract. Freepoort is struggling to move above its 50 day even with this strong gold move.
Looks like lots of good trades to be had in the PM's and miners, but I'm not in any yet.

Starting to look ahead to FOMC next week, right before opex - might be dicey on some of my short legs...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,122
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:53pm Dec 11, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...es-this-w.aspx ..earnings out the coming week: SWHC, LULU.... LULU can really move...I might have to bet on a replay of the Mar '13 earnings - a drop from $70 to <$65 (Note: I am not related to The Motley Fool) {image}
I was expecting a little run-up then a dump at earnings with LULU, looking for $71+, and it was looking good, but lots of disruptive news out this week (just before earnings, hmmm) and the share price has dropped ~$3, so I will prolly pass...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,123
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:10pm Dec 11, 2013 2:10pm
we could see the dump that I put positions on last friday only for NFP to ruin it, we're almost back to the 1786/87 on S&P, This time i would like to see a close under 1784 just to be sure
  • #2,124
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:22pm Dec 11, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
we could see the dump that I put positions on last friday only for NFP to ruin it, we're almost back to the 1786/87 on S&P, This time i would like to see a close under 1784 just to be sure
Could be. I was expecting a year-end selloff, especially on the bubblicious stocks like TSLA, YELP, LNKD, etc. But I wasn't expecting a market surge on a strong NFP, so I'm a little bit shell shocked.

Anyway, I have been a watcher this week. Have some short legs expiring 12/13 and 12/21, looking to get into some 60-90 spread programs, on any of the three above or a number of others...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,125
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:35pm Dec 11, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Could be. I was expecting a year-end selloff, especially on the bubblicious stocks like TSLA, YELP, LNKD, etc. But I wasn't expecting a market surge on a strong NFP, so I'm a little bit shell shocked. Anyway, I have been a watcher this week. Have some short legs expiring 12/13 and 12/21, looking to get into some 60-90 spread programs, on any of the three above or a number of others...
that surge was bull on that NFP, yes great numbers but with unemployment levels getting to a area where tapering was going to start the market should of come down instead they whipped us retailers but a spike. Normal thinkers are wondering why isn't the market surging forward on those numbers but we're right back pre NFP
  • #2,126
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:38pm Dec 11, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that surge was bull on that NFP, yes great numbers but with unemployment levels getting to a area where tapering was going to start the market should of come down instead they whipped us retailers but a spike. Normal thinkers are wondering why isn't the market surging forward on those numbers but we're right back pre NFP
yup, was a whipping. Maybe the FOMC next week will open the trap door....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,127
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:41pm Dec 11, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yup, was a whipping. Maybe the FOMC next week will open the trap door....
Treaders are expecting it so I'm wondering now if there going to do it before the FOMC
  • #2,128
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:47pm Dec 11, 2013 2:47pm
NASDAQ is still the only index dragging its heels, RUSSELL, DOW , S&P are there
  • #2,129
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:56pm Dec 11, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
NASDAQ is still the only index dragging its heels, RUSSELL, DOW , S&P are there
If oil closes under 97.37 would help then if retail sales disappoint may increase a chance of sell off, good unemployment claims number would do it
  • #2,130
  • Dec 11, 2013 3:01pm Dec 11, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
NASDAQ is still the only index dragging its heels, RUSSELL, DOW , S&P are there
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo

well it's been a long wait but you know the day is coming. Lots of these inflated pigs are gonna bleed.

Dumbest options trade I made this quarter - long TZA 12/21 $24p, paid $0.36, I might get more than 1/2 of that back or better if Russell will string together a few days like today...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,131
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:19pm Dec 11, 2013 5:19pm
So AH, FB lists on NYSE is announced, shares pop $2, let's see what they do with it Thur.

I had been pricing a Jan long strangle on TWTR, like 1/18 $45p @ $1.05, 1/18 $60c @ $1.30 --- net debit $2.35+ --- then would sell weekly puts or calls against the weak side. But maybe FB move to NYSE will nudge down TWTR, we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,132
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:40pm Dec 11, 2013 8:40pm
If you like fast money, UVXY may be the vehicle. Use it to scalp around big scheuled news events (NFP, FOMC, etc) - go ahead, I dare ya. Look at the $1-$2 otm put/call strikes and strangle 2-3 dte and a day before your event.

many 12/13 calls bought late yesterday up >300% today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-12-11_UVXY.png Size: 37 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,133
  • Edited 1:58am Dec 12, 2013 12:50am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting The Fool
If you like fast money, UVXY may be the vehicle. Use it to scalp around big scheuled news events (NFP, FOMC, etc) - go ahead, I dare ya. Look at the $1-$2 otm put/call strikes and strangle 2-3 dte and a day before your event. many 12/13 calls bought late yesterday up >300% today... {image}
these days, best to long puts after market sell-offs. UVXY will mean revert on a flat day following a heavy selloff day. US stock futures are red atm, maybe see some continuation of Wed's selling, but let's try a paper trade:

based on Wed's close, UVXY lt $20.63, long 12/13 $20p @ $0.35...

This will be a good weekend backtest exercise, only problem is UVXY only been around since 11/2011...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,134
  • Dec 12, 2013 7:58am Dec 12, 2013 7:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I was expecting a little run-up then a dump at earnings with LULU, looking for $71+, and it was looking good, but lots of disruptive news out this week (just before earnings, hmmm) and the share price has dropped ~$3, so I will prolly pass...
shoulda stayed with it, LULU down >$6 on heavy volume premarket
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,135
  • Dec 12, 2013 9:42am Dec 12, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Longed SLB $87 puts for 61c or $61 per contract a retracement in oil will help with schlumberger as it provides services to the oil industry. Again not looking for a huge fall just enough to double the option price. I got in at $87.29 and now price is $87.15 Schlumberger Limited (SLB) -NYSE 87.15 {image} 1.00(1.13%) 3:21PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price SLB Dec 2013 87.000 put (SLB131213P00087000) -OPR 0.61 {image} 0.11(22.00%) 14:52
closed out for 91c or $91, had bought for 61c or $61,

SLB Dec 2013 87.000 put (SLB131213P00087000)
-OPR
0.91 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.15(14.15%) 15:18
  • #2,136
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:12am Dec 12, 2013 10:12am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} these days, best to long puts after market sell-offs. UVXY will mean revert on a flat day following a heavy selloff day. US stock futures are red atm, maybe see some continuation of Wed's selling, but let's try a paper trade: based on Wed's close, UVXY lt $20.63, long 12/13 $20p @ $0.35... This will be a good weekend backtest exercise, only problem is UVXY only been around since 11/2011...
Markets opened down but are tilting up, 12/13 $20p down to $0.25, could change if indices go green. The 12/21 $20p is flat. (1100 NY time)

Selling calls with short dte a better approach than longing puts.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,137
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:44am Dec 12, 2013 10:44am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Markets opened down but are tilting up, 12/13 $20p down to $0.25, could change if indices go green. The 12/21 $20p is flat. (1100 NY time) Selling calls with short dte a better approach than longing puts.....
DOW again has lost more ground in comparison to S&P, a close at this level today could help a stronger slide tomorrow
  • #2,138
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:51am Dec 12, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Morning traders, new week so scouring through potential option trades and have already executed a option trade on POT/ POTASH, i HAVE LONGED THE $31 Put for 18c/ $18 per contract. charts do look to have a downside risk to pot and we're below the 50 and 200. I'm not going to for a lot on this but a triple of the option price will be nice. Current price is $31.39 POT Dec 2013 31.000 put (POT131213P00031000) -OPR 0.18 {image} 0.02(10.00%) 14:30 Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT) -NYSE 31.39 {image} 0.15(0.48%) 15:01...
closed out POT for 44c or $44 per contract, had bought for 18c or 18 per contract

POT Dec 2013 31.000 put (POT131213P00031000)
-OPR
0.44 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.09(25.71%) 16:12
  • #2,139
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:44pm Dec 12, 2013 2:44pm
looking to long $177.50 puts on SPY for tomorrows expiration, currently SPY is trading at $178.37.
An option under 20c then I'm in/ in at 19c. Got it as I was typing

SPY Dec 2013 177.500 put (SPY131213P00177500)
-OPR
0.19 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.19(50.00%) 20:23


SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
-NYSEArca
178.37 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.35(0.20%) 20:41 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #2,140
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:17pm Dec 12, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to long $177.50 puts on SPY for tomorrows expiration, currently SPY is trading at $178.37.
Good luck Cecil, you might make out there. I think a more likely scenario is that markets retrace up a bit or maybe flatline Friday and Monday, then renew a slide into FOMC Wednesday next. Then omg the Fed unleashes the tapers and the S&P finishes next week at around 1,725, on the road to 1,6xx in the following week. Markets still fear the taper right? OK, good.

I'm looking for strength to sell and saw it in the overboughts like TSLA, TWTR, YELP, etc, and I will wait a little more
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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