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AUD/USD

  • #70,561
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:32am Dec 12, 2013 10:32am
Right on time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #70,562
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:16am Dec 12, 2013 11:16am
Still on target...

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  • #70,563
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:48am Dec 12, 2013 11:48am
Quoting auxesis
Right on time {image}

here it is target 8817
head and shoulder in play
https://www.tradingview.com/v/CqIeq60I/
  • #70,564
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:48am Dec 12, 2013 11:48am
Quoting auxesis
Right on time {image}
haha. I see you are a student of the same school as me gl trading
  • #70,565
  • Dec 12, 2013 4:22pm Dec 12, 2013 4:22pm
half filled the gap on sep 1st earlier? seems like that needs to be closed
Do what's right for you
  • #70,566
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:07pm Dec 12, 2013 8:07pm
Some buy stops on AU 8950 were met with sellers! Feed: http://goo.gl/u6pLzG
  • #70,567
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:15pm Dec 12, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Some buy stops on AU 8950 were met with sellers! Feed: http://goo.gl/u6pLzG
Hello, very interesting what you are mention here as most "small speculators" are buying this pair.

myfxbook/outlook says 75% long 25% shorts
oanda open positions says 70% longs 30% shorts
alpari open positions says 64% longs 36% (volumes) 75% longs 25% shorts (positions.
  • #70,568
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:42pm Dec 12, 2013 8:42pm
Hello All
Hope some of you got something from that. I did not. While waiting for the news at 12.30 am AUD Sydney time this Stevens dude (who the hell knew he was talking??? not in forexfactory by the way!) dropped the pair 100 pips down .... thanks mate, for nothing

Anyway, can you please comment (To those usually who give feedback, I want to say to you thanks in advance !!!)?


IT IS TOO EASY. IF forest gump can see this then something is wrong. Aussie is short short short ...and when you thought it was long? thennnnn short again. So we got it now. Finally, 10k less, but got it

So, what's the catch? what can turn this pair back up and kill all the shorties out there? I mean, there's gotta be something. I am out btw.

I could only came up with this theory: The world goes short, then say gets to 8850 and by Friday when even martians go short, US Fed suckers come up with Friday 13th news (not before buying more properties in the Cayman Islands and opening several bank accounts)

By Friday 13th news I mean, they say something like: We realise the economy is not that good, yada yada yada and we may not taper just yet

Suddenly AUD goes 200 pips up and some people lose their houses, wife and kids...

any other theory?
  • #70,569
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:43pm Dec 12, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting fxjorr
{quote} Hello, very interesting what you are mention here as most "small speculators" are buying this pair. myfxbook/outlook says 75% long 25% shorts oanda open positions says 70% longs 30% shorts alpari open positions says 64% longs 36% (volumes) 75% longs 25% shorts (positions.
Retailers are nothing against stake players.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #70,570
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:56pm Dec 12, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting forexings
{quote} Retailers are nothing against stake players.
actually some are using this as a contrarian indicator, if most retails go Longs, then they go Short, I am trying to combine this with weekly COT, having some success so far. In this case AUDUSD most Large Speculators are still going Short, so my main Bias is still downtrend.
  • #70,571
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:15pm Dec 12, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting thewriter30
IT IS TOO EASY. IF forest gump can see this then something is wrong. Aussie is short short short ...and when you thought it was long? thennnnn short again. So we got it now. Finally, 10k less, but got it So, what's the catch? what can turn this pair back up and kill all the shorties out there? I mean, there's gotta be something. I am out btw. I could only came up with this theory: The world goes short, then say gets to 8850 and by Friday when even martians go short, US Fed suckers come up with Friday 13th news (not before buying more properties...
Bad news, if it's taken you 10k to learn what I consider the 2nd most important rule (follow the trend) then there's more pain ahead to learn the number one rule: Money management (it's why no one should be losing "their houses, wife and kids" as you put it).

I'd be staying short until FOMC meeting next Thurs. Currently I will not be surprised if they don't taper and AUD goes back up but I'm not betting the house on taper or not. Money management (which I've used for the last 2+ yrs since I started) and a new system in the last 2 months are what allow me to profit whether price goes up or down - why? Because I don't ever KNOW whether price will go up or down from the present point in time but I KNOW that it will either go UP then down or Down then UP. The specific sizings I don't know but some research on LONG term movements gives you a pretty good idea to plan (ie money management).

I'd wish you good luck but you'd be better served ensuring good planning.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #70,572
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:33pm Dec 12, 2013 11:33pm
wow...mr steven said the number.. but..i think without real action such cut the rates, foreign currency intervention and other policy from central bank, i think we should think it back carefully...once again, word is only word, without action i think it worth nothing.. this is only in my opinion...

does anybody have same idea with me ?
  • #70,573
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:45pm Dec 12, 2013 11:45pm
i am not expert in fundamental yet technical but as i read about information of housing market in australia, it show large improvement in housing which will make central bank think wheter or not to cut rates.. is it correct? maybe some fundamental expert can give opinion
and for foreign intervention, my question is rba will have enough weapon to do such foreign in market while some of fundamental data show better improvement for aussie ?
correct me if i wrong...
  • #70,574
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:36am Dec 13, 2013 12:36am
Quoting thewriter30
IT IS TOO EASY. IF forest gump can see this then something is wrong. Aussie is short short short ...and when you thought it was long? thennnnn short again. So we got it now. Finally, 10k less, but got it So, what's the catch? what can turn this pair back up and kill all the shorties out there? I mean, there's gotta be something. I am out btw. I could only came up with this theory: The world goes short, then say gets to 8850 and by Friday when even martians go short, US Fed suckers come up with Friday 13th news (not before buying more properties...

Hello TheWriter,

basically you right and I love your theory. Not because I belive on it, just because you thinking. I mean: The price not depends on you, not on me. It depends on the economics the chairmans, etc. All what we can do the thinking. If you can find out what, why and when they want you can earn some pips. If you can think like 100.000 traders you can find the best entry. (that's why I named one of my trees "Axel Weber" three years ago. he was the chairman at the BundesBank and that was the first time when I found out what should be the next wawe after him )
For example yesterday before the news the whole market prepared for the strengthening of the USD. And not because everybody knows the news in advance. That was the start - time and that's it. (just the numbers are not enough for that. actually I think these are bad news for the US)
  • #70,575
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:05am Dec 13, 2013 1:05am
and what about unemployment change , it was good new for aud and it is significant factor for movement,
but it went down!
I think something is wrong with this pair!
  • #70,576
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:12am Dec 13, 2013 1:12am
Quoting arash66110
and what about unemployment change , it was good new for aud and it is significant factor for movement, but it went down! I think something is wrong with this pair!
But the rate is increase.. 5.8%
  • #70,577
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:19am Dec 13, 2013 1:19am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} But the rate is increase.. 5.8%
the rate in this moment is not important because it came as it anticipated, but +21K during 7month was
a significant improvement in employed people and has greater effect,
Surprise lift in new Australia jobs numbers
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=462182
  • #70,578
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:21am Dec 13, 2013 1:21am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} But the rate is increase.. 5.8%

i think he mean employment change which is increase 2%
  • #70,579
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:23am Dec 13, 2013 1:23am
Quoting kingkong80
{quote} i think he mean employment change which is increase 2%
Yea.. I understand.. I just give him another information.. RBA is more concern on unemployment rate...

Until Stevens mouth does not say overvalue..
  • #70,580
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:41am Dec 13, 2013 1:41am
Quoting arash66110
and what about unemployment change , it was good new for aud and it is significant factor for movement, but it went down! I think something is wrong with this pair!


You right. If you watch just the numbers, after the news aud should stronger against the usd.
But sometimes not just that why the market moving. Remember a couple of day ago after news audusd went down cca 100 pips, whitin 2 minutes went up 120 and stay at there for a day?
I always prepare for a 'big' news. These are usually great movings we can earn 50+ pips whitin a minute
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