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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,921
  • Dec 10, 2013 4:08pm Dec 10, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting Jeremy Oak
Two 4HR hammers looking good to re-enter long, would like to see it close above 169.15 on a 15M chart for an entry
Looking possible this. Well spotted
  • #9,922
  • Dec 10, 2013 4:41pm Dec 10, 2013 4:41pm
And we're off!
  • #9,923
  • Edited 7:52pm Dec 10, 2013 4:57pm | Edited 7:52pm
A break over about 169.5/6 and definitely 169.7 would suggest this was a small correction in an uptrend and have it move to test and maybe/probably break resistance now at 170.2 en route for new highs.

A drop below 168.68 would suggest that it is a larger correction that may see 167.5 or 166.7 again.
  • #9,924
  • Dec 10, 2013 5:16pm Dec 10, 2013 5:16pm
seeing if it will hit 167.35 or so and see if that holds as support..its being holding a moving average quite nicely in this uptrend
  • #9,925
  • Dec 10, 2013 10:14pm Dec 10, 2013 10:14pm
went short for a small trade..may want to trade down to about 167.80-50
  • #9,926
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:28am Dec 11, 2013 4:28am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
we have hidden divergence on most of the time frames for geppy suggesting a down move, add to that most of the crowd are now long! it seems like the perfect place to drop it, and drop it hard not taking a position here for the time being, just watching and looking for the short entry to be triggered. all the best
i posted the above when price was at 169.8ish
  • #9,927
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:29am Dec 11, 2013 6:29am
closed short from 1.6860 +75 pips . keeping second short from 1.6940 for now
Quoting Fx-gtg
i had a 166.xx short i closed last week with no loss sold yesterday at 168.60 selling more 169.40 will close first short with 200 pips and let other run. reason. BOJ will disappoint on yen weakening over raised expectations of their actions.
  • #9,928
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:28am Dec 11, 2013 7:28am
Quoting Mpt
A break over about 169.5/6 and definitely 169.7 would suggest this was a small correction in an uptrend and have it move to test and maybe/probably break resistance now at 170.2 en route for new highs. A drop below 168.68 would suggest that it is a larger correction that may see 167.5 or 166.7 again.

this downward move is not overlapped between waves
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  • #9,929
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:31am Dec 11, 2013 7:31am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} this downward move is not overlapped between waves
I don't understand your comment
  • #9,930
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:38am Dec 11, 2013 7:38am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I don't understand your comment

i mean, correction wave (-a-) 5 waves should be overlapped rite? or not?
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  • #9,931
  • Dec 11, 2013 7:53am Dec 11, 2013 7:53am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} i mean, correction wave (-a-) 5 waves should be overlapped rite? or not?
Corrective waves can be sometimes hard to break down into their individual "parts". eg the move up from 165.8 to 170. The only place that I recall where they overlap is in a triangle (contracting or expanding). This may simply be an expanding triangle, or it could take the form of a double triangle (diamond) as per the moves 1 Jan to 31 March this year.
  • #9,932
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm Dec 11, 2013 4:18pm
Looks like we broke an uptrend line from Early Nov. Could be a sign of more downside to come, 4HR candles have turned short term bearish.

Would like to see a close below 167.50 could be a nice ride on the slippery slide down to 166.25 or so
  • #9,933
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:55pm Dec 11, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting Jeremy Oak
Looks like we broke an uptrend line from Early Nov. Could be a sign of more downside to come, 4HR candles have turned short term bearish. Would like to see a close below 167.50 could be a nice ride on the slippery slide down to 166.25 or so
And if it doesn't get under 167.5, it may well move up very quickly to retest, but probably fail 169 ish.
  • #9,934
  • Dec 11, 2013 6:53pm Dec 11, 2013 6:53pm
You guys are on it. This just poped up on my orderflow feed for some confirmation:
Quote
Gbp/Jpy Abundant sell stops accumulating under 167.50. More under 167.00
http://goo.gl/mJERCv
  • #9,935
  • Dec 12, 2013 12:18am Dec 12, 2013 12:18am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} And if it doesn't get under 167.5, it may well move up very quickly to retest, but probably fail 169 ish.
But then if it only falls back to about 168.2 or not below 167.5, the uptrend resumes.
  • #9,936
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:04am Dec 12, 2013 3:04am
Absolutely beautiful moves from this pair recently - it really has become my favourite pair to trade! MACD flattened our as the price criss-crossed the H1 200 exponential moving average yesterday giving a great buy signal earlier this morning. I'm holding a long and am looking at 16,900 as a possible TP,( just below the 61.8% fib ) but will see how price reacts, as it may well go higher, but I do have good resistance now at about 16,990. The great thing with this pair is its tendency to hold a move without the schizophrenia you get in other pairs, plus the obvious advantage of giant moves.
  • #9,937
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:26am Dec 12, 2013 3:26am
I expect it to fail soon. Maybe. The fallback is the big thing though. Below the previous low would allow for a bottom of around 166.5. Not below the previous low suggests that this is the uptrend getting underway again.
  • #9,938
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:45am Dec 12, 2013 3:45am
Quoting Mpt
I expect it to fail soon. Maybe. The fallback is the big thing though. Below the previous low would allow for a bottom of around 166.5. Not below the previous low suggests that this is the uptrend getting underway again.
I'd go along with that pretty much. I think we have reached a critical point however, as looking firstly at the monthly chart, we are just below the 200 exponential moving average which I've got at 17,200. If we can push through that, we have the 200sma at 17,840, and above that, it is pretty clear with only fib levels to look at, but I don't think we will go that high for the foreseeable future anyhow. One reason for this is for me to be found on the daily chart, which though still looking very bullish, does see the price as having moved a long way above the 200 exponential ma, and one thing I've learnt if anything, is that the price doesn't like getting too far away from it, and it is now as far away from it as it has been for a long long time. Therefore, I think we are now witnessing the end of the bull run and the beginning of some bear superiority. Time as always will tell.
  • #9,939
  • Dec 12, 2013 4:34am Dec 12, 2013 4:34am
Quoting cat
{quote} I'd go along with that pretty much. I think we have reached a critical point however, as looking firstly at the monthly chart, we are just below the 200 exponential moving average which I've got at 17,200. If we can push through that, we have the 200sma at 17,840, and above that, it is pretty clear with only fib levels to look at, but I don't think we will go that high for the foreseeable future anyhow. One reason for this is for me to be found on the daily chart, which though still looking very bullish, does see the price as having moved...
It's always possible that this is a reversal, but it continues to act much more like a continuation. At this stage, a reversal would have been quite "spikey" and it just seems more methodical. Almost boring.

FYI, the next resistance area above 171.8/172 is 173/173.5. No moving averages correspond to that level afaik. Just like nothing was at 170.
  • #9,940
  • Dec 12, 2013 4:52am Dec 12, 2013 4:52am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It's always possible that this is a reversal, but it continues to act much more like a continuation. At this stage, a reversal would have been quite "spikey" and it just seems more methodical. Almost boring. FYI, the next resistance area above 171.8/172 is 173/173.5. No moving averages correspond to that level afaik. Just like nothing was at 170.

I'm never bored when I'm making money
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