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  • #3,261
  • Dec 10, 2013 1:56pm Dec 10, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Yes Olu, closed right on support with 2nd bearish day in a row. Tomorrow is decision day. A close below 106 probably sends it to test the previous low & possibly new lows. Needs to close above 112 for the bulls to get any traction. {image}
Coffee Update:

106 is proving to be pretty strong support. Strong move up today so will probably make another run to try to close above 112.
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  • #3,262
  • Dec 10, 2013 7:56pm Dec 10, 2013 7:56pm
Sorry Guys I have not been able to do my end of day analysis and comments. Had to take the family out somewhere. I did my very best despite strong temptation and windows of opportunity not to open my IPad and have a look at prices while out with them

I will say the following:

I was right to tighten my stop in cocoa . I was stopped out - for a profit this time - and I am still bearish

Srt Coffee seems to be bouncing off the 106 area again. The strength today was all but convincing that the way forward is north even if we get some downside

My thoughts about gold and silver have happened. I am now turning bearish again on both of them

My EW thoughts on the Dow proved correct initially as price went under 16000 but my position is now under water. The risk is defined and I will just let it play out

The $ was canned again today (jpy participated as well!) and the support on the FXCM Dollar index chart I put up has gone and we need some serious fundy news to turn this ship around

Off to bed. I will try to get up early to post some charts.

LazyBoy thanks for your chart. I like the idea

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,263
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:06am Dec 11, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Olu
Sorry Guys I have not been able to do my end of day analysis and comments. Had to take the family out somewhere. I did my very best despite strong temptation and windows of opportunity not to open my IPad and have a look at prices while out with them I will say the following: I was right to tighten my stop in cocoa . I was stopped out - for a profit this time - and I am still bearish Srt Coffee seems to be bouncing off the 106 area again. The strength today was all but convincing that the way forward is north even if we get some downside My thoughts...
"My thoughts about gold and silver have happened. I am now turning bearish again on both of them "-Olu

I remain bullish on silver.
Price is at a pretty big resistance area on the weekly chart but if it can get through this around 20.47 I think it could move up to the 21.50-22 area. The key level that needs to hold now is around 20 on the downside.
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  • #3,264
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:12am Dec 11, 2013 8:12am
Quoting srt
{quote} "My thoughts about gold and silver have happened. I am now turning bearish again on both of them "-Olu I remain bullish on silver. Price is at a pretty big resistance area on the weekly chart but if it can get through this around 20.47 I think it could move up to the 21.50-22 area. The key level that needs to hold now is around 20 on the downside. {image} {image}

I am also bullish Gold till at least 1300, and the key level now to hold is the 1250 area (sorry no chart as I am at work, plz see my previous post on alternative gold senario). I am also bullish Dow till 16,5 area (retest of the long-term channel upper boundary).
  • #3,265
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:28am Dec 11, 2013 8:28am
Quoting rehab
{quote} I am also bullish Gold till at least 1300, and the key level now to hold is the 1250 area (sorry no chart as I am at work, plz see my previous post on alternative gold senario). I am also bullish Dow till 16,5 area (retest of the long-term channel upper boundary).
Yes, if it can clear the 1270 area would be even better.
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  • #3,266
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:33am Dec 11, 2013 8:33am
Quoting srt
{quote} Yes, if it can clear the 1270 area would be even better. {image}

totally agree with you, especially if it would be on a weekly close: gold is a beast and one can never trust him
SRt: I see that you are a long-term trader, one question for you please: do you hold your positions over christmas and August? I heard- and also noticed- that over holidays it gets choppy..what do you usually do? I am a swing trader, but with Gold, Oil and Dow, i see that to try to hold on trends might be a better strategy. thanks
  • #3,267
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:41am Dec 11, 2013 8:41am
Quoting rehab
{quote} totally agree with you, especially if it would be on a weekly close: gold is a beast and one can never trust him SRt: I see that you are a long-term trader, one question for you please: do you hold your positions over christmas and August? I heard- and also noticed- that over holidays it gets choppy..what do you usually do? I am a swing trader, but with Gold, Oil and Dow, i see that to try to hold on trends might be a better strategy. thanks
Hi Rehab,
If I'm going to do a swing trade to hold for a longer period of time, then I'll usually just use options so I don't worry about choppy periods. If I'm doing a shorter-term trade then options don't work as well unless there's good liquidity at the strike price you bought/sold. As for my silver trade, I'll plan on holding that for a while depending on how it's acting.
  • #3,268
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:44am Dec 11, 2013 8:44am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi Rehab, If I'm going to do a swing trade to hold for a longer period of time, then I'll usually just use options so I don't worry about choppy periods. If I'm doing a shorter-term trade then options don't work as well unless there's good liquidity at the strike price you bought/sold. As for my silver trade, I'll plan on holding that for a while depending on how it's acting.

Many thanks for your reply. Have a nice day and good luck with your trades.
  • #3,269
  • Dec 11, 2013 8:49am Dec 11, 2013 8:49am
Hi Rehab

My Dow Position is now in profit again. I stuck to this trade despite being just points from being stopped out. This weakness might be temporary but theoretically I am looking for a break of 15782

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,270
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:00am Dec 11, 2013 9:00am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi Rehab, If I'm going to do a swing trade to hold for a longer period of time, then I'll usually just use options so I don't worry about choppy periods. If I'm doing a shorter-term trade then options don't work as well unless there's good liquidity at the strike price you bought/sold. As for my silver trade, I'll plan on holding that for a while depending on how it's acting.
You could also trade the market with much less leverage and point value. With my brokers the option prices are unreliable with wide spreads.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,271
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:07am Dec 11, 2013 9:07am
Quoting Olu
Hi Rehab My Dow Position is now in profit again. I stuck to this trade despite being just points from being stopped out. This weakness might be temporary but theoretically I am looking for a break of 15782 Olu {image}

Hi Olu, thanks for your chart and for your reply to my question.
- I think the key would be if the H&S works or collapses. I am bullish cause of the break out of the range, and the retest that held..what doesnīt support my view is that H&S and also the boundary is being retested..today close might clear the confusion.
-What do you mean by "much less leverage and point value" please give an example of such a market.
  • #3,272
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:07am Dec 11, 2013 9:07am
Crude Oil - perhaps a bit more upside but eventually a large downmove will ensue. i will try and post better charts tonight
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,273
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:33am Dec 11, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil - perhaps a bit more upside but eventually a large downmove will ensue. i will try and post better charts tonight {image}
Yes, I'm watching 2 lines for the next move.
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  • #3,274
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:38am Dec 11, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil - perhaps a bit more upside but eventually a large downmove will ensue. i will try and post better charts tonight {image}
what price are you looking to sell?
  • #3,275
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:41am Dec 11, 2013 9:41am
Olu from your analysis it seems that you are a hidden-$ bull...didnīt you leave the chair ?!
  • #3,276
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:46am Dec 11, 2013 9:46am
Quoting rehab
Olu from your analysis it seems that you are a hidden-$ bull...didnīt you leave the chair ?!
You must be thinking about his bearish Gold/Silver & Oil :-)
  • #3,277
  • Dec 11, 2013 9:48am Dec 11, 2013 9:48am
Quoting srt
{quote} You must be thinking about his bearish Gold/Silver & Oil :-)

yes!!!!
  • #3,278
  • Dec 11, 2013 11:10am Dec 11, 2013 11:10am
Attachment
Quoting Olu
Hi Rehab My Dow Position is now in profit again. I stuck to this trade despite being just points from being stopped out. This weakness might be temporary but theoretically I am looking for a break of 15782 Olu {image}
Hi Olu, nice trade, was seeing the same thing. weekly had slowed down, then bearish 3 bar pattern on daily, got short the retest.
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  • #3,279
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:09pm Dec 11, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting rehab
Olu from your analysis it seems that you are a hidden-$ bull...didnīt you leave the chair ?!

Hidden Dollar Bull? No open dollar bull 100%. But with the current price action the Dollar Bulls League' president resigned. When price turns we will start the campaign for new members. For now people will not touch us with a barge pole. Out time will come...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,280
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:29pm Dec 11, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting lazyboy
1328521 {quote} Hi Olu, nice trade, was seeing the same thing. weekly had slowed down, then bearish 3 bar pattern on daily, got short the retest. {image}
Hi LB

I am glad I took this trade. Well done selling the retest

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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