Circular Trend-Waves

EURAUD ... This pair is another nice opportunity for making some pips. Today an important resistence level was broken which was a clear BUY signal . The better thing about this trade is that the resistence zone has been confirmed by two pinbars recently. Thats why I will be expecting an explosive bullish trend after this breakout. Anyway ... happy pips...

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5582/hywr.png

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/2529/z6uj.png

EURUSD ... Road map ...Symmetric approach is one of the best and least-risk methods in order to enter a trade. So It is alwasy essential to prepare roadmaps which will make it easy for us to understand the logic behing the daily trends.

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/3971/47sm.png

XAUUSD ... Gold has been under my observations for about 10-15 days. Honestly I was expecting the price to reach deeper levels like 1140 ish. But the spiky structure of the candles made it difficult to understand what XAUUSD will do in the future. For this purpose I searched on net about correlated pairs with gold , and among the correlated pairs I found AUDUSD the most suitable one. In other words ; my intention was to use AUDUSD as the smoothed candled version for gold. After spending some time infront of the screen and staring at the price patterns I saw some invisible circles which fit the price. And here is the result :

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/2125/6wrt.png

As you can see in the picture the price has settled on a circular support ; this situation told me to look for a candle formation which will be a confirmation for a possible reversal ; and the first target will be the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern. And yes ı jumped in the trade

Continuing , I decided to do similar geometric stuff on XAUUSD chart but the spiky structure made it difficult for me to settle circles on the chart , then I tried drawing manual fans which have almost the same angles between each fan-line. And as you can see in the picture , the price has respected the fan-lines above except the last (recent) one ; and the price has penetrated the recent fan resistence many times as if taking revenge. Here, the similarity with AUDUSD about the candles told me to look for abullish signal in XAUUSD , then I jumed in the trade again.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/3142/svu0.png

The red little circle symbolizes a price magnet which will be attracting the price in 11-12 working days. I am not sure whether the magnet will be touched , but at least there is a possibility !

Then I just wanted to check monthly candles , and I saw the unclearity in social psychology during the months June - July ; and that is a potential reversal signal. Later the reversal was confirmed by the August candle. And luckily, nowadays the price has retraced back to almost beginning of the reversal ; which means if we were a monthly chart trader , we would jump in the trade with a SL below 1180s.

And finally , when we look at the last monthly candle (which is not completed yet) I cant stop hoping to see a pinbar at the end of this month

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/4194/skb0.png

Time will show everything !!

EURUSD ... If the bearish trend which started today ends up at these levels , the daily candle formation will have given us the first valid SELL signal in this pair. As a trader who is selling this pair at the moment I do not expect this bearish trend to be deep and strong. Besides , I expect and predict it to be weak until the price touches the outer wall of the red circle which is placed on top of the previous weekly TOP. I should state it again and seriously that I do not have any other explanations except circles for this scenario.

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/2344/ud81.jpg

The picture above is the chart which I have been using since the beginning , showing the 1,4250 energy point (price magnet). Today I just added an extra red circle to the chart to read what it is trying to do. And as everyone can easily see...the red circle will be a suppport for the price in the following days. Later the strong bull attack will carry the price to 1,618 circle. That is what I expect !!! So I will close my short orders at the first symptom of a new bullish trend.

Another point I want you to see is the Top levels I marked with black circles on the picture. I call them as "Two Towers" . The dates of these two towers are interesting. One of them is 23 October 2011 ; and the other one is 20 October 2013. Almost the same dates , stopped by same circular resistence !!! The same power !!! So one can easily understand how powerful the bulls are , who just achieved to break the Top limits of those two towers.

The circular area which we just entered can be called as a HELL-LAND where many traders will be terminated by the crazy and meaningless trends , and they will be lost in the dusty pages of the history In case the 1,618 circular resistence is broken , later 2,618 circle will be the target !! Although fundamentals keep saying "SHORT" , I trust my circles much enough to say opposite of what they say !!!

As a Summary :

- There is nothing complex and un-explainable about the trends in EURUSD. Everything is still the slave of a strong authority !!! 1,618 circular resistence is the traget for the price at the moment. In case it is broken 2,618 will be the next target !
- I do not expect a giant retracement which will end up around 3200s like fundamentalists say. A new bullish trend will start right after price is stopped at supported by the red circle.
- 23 October 2011 and 20 October 2013 weekly candles , the two towers have the equivalant strength and importance , and almost the same date !
- The circular area in which we just stepped is a HELL-LAND which will have crazy consolidation trends between the 1,618 circle and the red circle.
- The predictions I made in this post are just my expectations. Time will show whether they are valid or not !
- The potential price magnets are marked with green little circles on the picture.

Regards..

Before sleep I just wanted to study more on EURUSD about longer term targets. First what I need to mention is the structure of a trend , which I call " The Anathomy of a Trend" ...

Every trend is like Big-Bang , the trend starts from one particular point which is a mass of giant energy , and moves like an explosion as time passes ; the strength of the explosive momentum decreases as the trend gets away from the center of the explosion. So If we call that mass of energy , the start point of the trend as "0" (because its undifinable and infinite at first) then here is the story of the trend :

Fisrt Step : The first wave starts from 0 and moves to a particular [Date + Price] coordinate. At first it is impossible to predict the length of this first wave. The importance of this first wave is that it gives us enough info about the circular time + price ratio. In other words it helps us to identify the detailed structure of the upcoming whole trend.

Second Step : The exhaustion after the first wave causes the price to retrace till significant Fibonacci ratios. This retracement starts and ends within the first circular area.

Third Step : The price starts a third wave which breaks the 1,00 circular area and ends up at 1,618 circular resistence.

Fourth Step : The price again retraces. In order to make Date+Price predictions about the end of the retracement , we need to draw a line (median line) which is respected by the price during first step and the second step and the third step. This median line will act as a magnet in the future and will attract the price against itself. The distance between the retarcement number two will give us clues about the retracement number 4 four.

Fifth Step : The price will again start a rally and break the 1,618 circular resistence and reach 2,618 circular resistence and complete the whole trend. The target of the trend (most of the time) is the intersection coordinate of the median line and the 2,618 circle.

So lets apply this thing to EURUSD :

(I know most of the people are selling this pair)

http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/6882/abqh.png

So as you can see , the target of the trend seems to be 1,5700 ish , 11-12 monthly candles away ! So now what the price is trying to do is to reach its third wave target : 1,4250 ish levels...

I know what I told above is very similar to Elliot Wave Theory , but both Elliot and I study on the same charts. Its normal for us to get similar results Thats the algorithm of the social conscious !!!

Regards...

Potential target for XAUUSD ... Time will reveal the truth ...

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/826/8mlq.png

XAUUSD ... I have been studying on GOLD charts for the whole weekend . I have drown maybe hundreds of circles and erased them from the chart . And in the end , there is still no accurate target for the price. First I wanted to apply the Fibonacci ratios to the circles and detect the potential circular target. It was quite astonishing that the price had respected the previous 1,618 and 2,0 ratio circles. And finally the 2,0 circle was broken , potentially targeting 2,618 circle.

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/7319/3rc7.png

Later I went on drawing different circles , free of any ratios , just dependant to significant reversal pivots in the past. Then what I got is similar to the Fibonacci circles except the predicted circle. I measured the height of the last swing and called it as "x" then I added another x width to the circular perspective in order to build up a predictive circle. Moreover I also added some trendlines which (I think) have been and will be respected by the price. One of the perspectives give me an accurate target of 1123s (lets say 1130) , and the other perspective does not offer any accurate targets at all.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/3145/9x91.png

http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/6097/48o4.png

On the daily chart I have seen some bullish reversal potential , thats why I am still expecting a retrace back to the circular resistance around 1295s (if the circular resistence is reached this week) (the more time passes , the higher the target will be) , but there is still no guarantee that the price will change its direction towards deeper levels like 1130s.

Time will show everything , and XAUUSD is such an annoying pair that it does not give much clues about the future trends

Regards...

GBPUSD ... This pair is under my observation too. first of all it will be essential to have a look at the monthly chart where the giant triangle is broken with an enfulging bullish pattern. It is a good bullish signal for filtering the lower timeframe signals.

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/9404/ydug.png

Later I skipped to the weekly chart in order to see smaller trends and I drew the circles on the chart. And after adding a trendline and a support area (blue) on the chart , I think I will add a BUY order as soon as the market opens. I think it is a good opportunity for the tiny bulls (like me) to join the trend.

I will be among the bears in case the blue support area is broken.

Time will show everything ... Regards ...

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/9057/rdin.png

EURJPY ... I had been waiting for a circular resistence recognition by the price , and as I can see an inverted hammer right below the resistence is waiting for a confirmation by this week's candle. After today I will be looking for bearish entrance chances in the daily chart , but first a confirmation by the weekly candle will be good.

http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/279/v27b.png

And here I go to D1 and H1 charts ...

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/9564/cnd7.png

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/1199/u9bx.png

AUDUSD ... It is obvious that this pair is in a bearish trend. So I was looking for a chance to join the trend again. The monthly candle formation and the monthly trendline breakout is a big reference for my strong bearish scenarios which will be accompanied by XAUUSD and NZDUSD too . Anyway , the price has retraced back to the circular resistence area , and I made two SELL orders waiting for deeper targets. Here are the screenshots ...

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/489/5i2l.png

http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/2490/8t1k.png

Weekens are good times for drawing long term roadmaps. And the boring weekend programs on tv boosts your desire to do some valuable thing. I just opened a monthly chart on AUDUSD which is correlated with XAUUSD and NZDUSD which are bearish (in my perspective) at the moment. I just drew the channel and the inner supports and resistences. What ı got in the end as a result is 0,8410ish target.

Here is the chart ...

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/2164/4zem.png

XAUUSD ... The bearish pressure on gold is still alive and the predicted circular resistence is not touched by the price. The target circle is just based on symmetric approach. Anyway , the price has retraced back to the resistence zone where we had a weekly pinbar in the past (8th of December) showing downwards. So today we have another chance to go short and get some pips from this pair.

XAUUSD SELL : 1251 SL : 1293 TP : 1120 (0,01)
XAUUSD BUY STOP : 1293 SL : 1213 TP : 1400 (0,02)

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/6207/f2gz.png

USDCHF is another pair where there is a big potential of a huge downtrend. The geometric approach on monthly charts strongly show downwards , a target of 0,82s. When we look at the monthly charts its so easy to see the head and shoulders pattern , with the broken neck line , a retest of the neck line , and two important bearish formations encouraging the bears.

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/5690/x25a.png

On the other side I tried to detect the circular structure of the monthly trend starting from significant monthly pivots. The same scale of the circles fit to both different reference pivots which is a strong confirmation that August 2011 was really the bottom. After drawing the circles I just deleted those which make it look like a mass of circles And also marked the potential energy points which will act as magnets in the close future. In other words there are three different scenarios for now ; plus one extra scenario !!!

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/2994/dv6f.png

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/2111/3hsb.png

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9312/qax1.png

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4946/8ia1.png

The fourth scenario is :

The price will not care about the energy points and just break the circular support and go down to the red circular support to form a double circular bottom. This scenario is also confirmed by the head and shoulders pattern with the target around 0,82s.

As a conclusion there are 4 different possible scenarios for USDCHF . And the most possible of them seems to be the fourth scenario with a drop to 0,82s. Time will show...

Regards...

USDCHF ... And we have a nice reference point to jump on the trend on the daily chart. It is market with the yellow zone on the screenshot. So we will be bullish until this reference zone is broken by the price. The break of the yellow zone will be the trigger for our fourth scenario...

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/4039/hwh7.png

DXY chart is another confirmation for my USDCHF down and EURUSD up scenarios. When we look at the DXY chart we can easily notice (monthly chart) the triangle , and the price being reflected from side to side inside the triangle. And the last bullish trend inside the triangle is broken in the downwards direction. Later the price went back to the trendline for the retest and formed a pinbar below the trendline (green trendline) showing downwards. And The price has confirmed the pinbar in the following month.

So all we need to do is to place a fibonacci tool on the bearish trend which started with the pinbar , and mark the potential retracement zone (red zone in the picture). And it can easily be seen that the price is rejected at that red zone on friday. We must be at the beginning of a big downtrend in DXY.

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2462/w0xe.png

GBPUSD ... With the encouraging pinbar at the top on weekly chart I have been looking for chances to go short on this pair. And 1,6380 was a trigger price level for my bearish scenarios , and luckily the price retraced back to 1,6450s and gave me another chance to build bigger volume short orders. In other words I am short on GBPUSD and expecting price to give me +200 or +250 pips .

On the other side the price has been stopped by a significant circular resistence which was confirmed by the weekly pinbar (this is why I respect the pinbar that much) . So now all I have to do is to wait for the bearish trend ...

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/8591/c5hc.png

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/2484/x7cx.png

EDIT : The previous trade explorer was ruined because of the server which made me crazy. So I made a new trade explorer where I will make serious orders with a deposit of 5000 USD.

EURUSD ... Well , ı do not care about the good economy illusioun in USA and I trust my geometric stuff more than the stories being told around. The price has just retraced back to a nice bounce up zone in EURUSD . And I shud admit that it wud be really boring to wait if I hadnt discovered the game : world of tanks

Here is the chart with a FİBO tool on the price , showing potential reversal zone ...

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/5934/smvm.png

GBPUSD ... Finally the price chose one way and decided to move. Maybe its the weekly pinbar on progress pushing the price down. I will realize the profits at the trendline which is supposed to be visited soon. Anyway , wait wait wait ....

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3885/11kd.png

Hi again , I feel so alone in my bullish EURUSD scenarios , thats why I just wanted to look at LFX charts. And here are both EURLFX and USDLFX charts which support my bullish EURUSD , bearish USDCHF , bullish EURJPY .... scenarios.

First I want to show the EURLFX chart with an inverted head and shoulders pattern and the broken neckline ... On the other side EUR has broken %50 of the retracement levels which can be considered as a psychological balance level.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/2199/4rzt.png

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/376/29oh.png

On the other side I just wanted to check USDFLX and what i saw is the price which is about to start a bearish trend. I will not be shocked if we encounter a big drop (enfulging bearish pattern) next month ...

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/4240/r5l9.png

We are going with the flow as we are supposed to do ... So the next target of the price where I will realize the profit is %50 of the bullish trend and the AB=CD correction target. I wish the trend was strong enough to carry the price to those levels before the week ends. Its really difficult to "wait" , and boring too

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/261/o2w8.png