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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,121
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:54pm Dec 8, 2013 1:54pm
AUD/JPY Weekly

Looking at long ideas into the 9500 level.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #129,122
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:00pm Dec 8, 2013 2:00pm
Would you please look this trade and tell me...

Was it a bad trade or a good trade that just did not work?
Attached pictures before and after...

Reason for this trade
A bearish pinbar, touched a key support/resistance (although not big round number), in line with the recent trend.
I placed a sell stop entry 10 pips below the low of the bar. And a stop loss order a few pips above the high.

Result
A full bar loss. It was just a few microlots, but this was a loss that made me feel like an idiot. Ever felt like that?
I shorted the bottom tick of the day. I covered the at the top tick of the day... and... then the market went directly to my planned take profit level.

I know it is normal for things like this to happen, but I'd like to ask if this was a OK trade OR some guidance why I should have not taken it.

Should I have had my SL ever further? Or maybe a mental SL on close above the high and an emergency stop loss of 200 pips at a broker?
Or maybe this was simply a poor setup because there were not enough confluences? (no BRN, no Fib)

Please, let me know. I will appreciate your feedback a lot.
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Michal9
  • #129,123
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:16pm Dec 8, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting michal9
Would you please look this trade and tell me... Was it a bad trade or a good trade that just did not work? Attached pictures before and after... Reason for this trade A bearish pinbar, touched a key support/resistance (although not big round number), in line with the recent trend. I placed a sell stop entry 10 pips below the low of the bar. And a stop loss order a few pips above the high. Result A full bar loss. It was just a few microlots, but this was a loss that made me feel like an idiot. Ever felt like that? I shorted the bottom tick of the...
In my view it is not a Pin bar. it is more like a Doji( indecision) candle
  • #129,124
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:25pm Dec 8, 2013 2:25pm
Right... thanks zohaib... possibly a part of the problem is that I placed my order about an hour before the daily bar closed... my broker closes daily bar at midnight in Europe, and I place my trades usually around 11 pm.
Michal9
  • #129,125
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:31pm Dec 8, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting zohaib
{quote} In my view it is not a Pin bar. it is more like a Doji( indecision) candle
Yeah, its also trading into a daily ppz around .9641ish as well. Even if you had a stronger bar (which is necessary), I think it would truly have to be special for me to want to trade through that ppz.
Nothing wrong with feeling like an idiot, we've all done it plenty of times. It can actually really help you grow.
  • #129,126
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:41pm Dec 8, 2013 5:41pm
Quoting dan89
{quote} Hey albus, Could you post a daily chart that is zoomed out a little more but not all the way out. I cant get this chart up on my feed. Take care Dan
this is it
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  • #129,127
  • Dec 8, 2013 6:04pm Dec 8, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting michal9
Would you please look this trade and tell me... Was it a bad trade or a good trade that just did not work? Attached pictures before and after... Reason for this trade A bearish pinbar, touched a key support/resistance (although not big round number), in line with the recent trend. I placed a sell stop entry 10 pips below the low of the bar. And a stop loss order a few pips above the high. Result A full bar loss. It was just a few microlots, but this was a loss that made me feel like an idiot. Ever felt like that? I shorted the bottom tick of the...
this is my view
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  • #129,128
  • Dec 8, 2013 7:42pm Dec 8, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting scherzi
Hi again. I've read on the previous page great advices for new traders. Now it's about seven months that I begun with all this stuff, looking for which security types could be suited for retail investors; how they worked, etc. I begun with value investment books (useless) and finally technical books on all aspects of trading charts. I think it's been over three months that I discovered Mr Price Action and have been demoing, studying more, I've been on the P. forum (great) and always demoing. So, my advice for new traders is, as mentioned, not giving...
Great advice Scherzi


I think it's always a great help too new traders to hear simple things like this repeated. Their simply are no shortcuts and it takes time. Have to keep that mentality that you are in it for the long haul, couldn't agree more


Spent the weekend at a log cabin for my bday. Great way to escape city life
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  • #129,129
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:38pm Dec 8, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Great advice Scherzi I think it's always a great help too new traders to hear simple things like this repeated. Their simply are no shortcuts and it takes time. Have to keep that mentality that you are in it for the long haul, couldn't agree more Spent the weekend at a log cabin for my bday. Great way to escape city life {image}
Nice, that is a good view. Looks like the New York state adirondack range or Vermont?? I have always really had a thing for mountains and hills.
Could be my affection with skiing. Looks like a nice and relaxed way to spend a birthday though.
  • #129,130
  • Dec 9, 2013 3:05am Dec 9, 2013 3:05am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Spent the weekend at a log cabin for my bday. Great way to escape city life {image}
Its nice experiencing the relaxation from the natural feel of nature. I guess its works magic when we try to get rid of worries and stress by changing environment. Happy Bday bro.


Jibson

May the odds be in your favor ...
Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #129,131
  • Edited 3:44am Dec 9, 2013 3:32am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting KissFan
AUD/JPY Weekly Looking at long ideas into the 9500 level. K.I.S.S. {image}
HELLO !
I hope that my contribution is appreciated.

looking at the price, I see more 'a bearish situation, under the brn and the important level.
surely we have a congestion between two important levels.= 90 brn and 95!
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  • #129,132
  • Dec 9, 2013 4:12am Dec 9, 2013 4:12am
Thanks a lot albus999... now I see that. I traded into a hurdle PPZ support, looks like. And indeed, it looked like a pin when I placed my order and went to bed, but when it closed an hour later, it looked like a doji. Still, there was a H4 pin anyway. But yes, got the point, it wasn't an A-trade.

That may be my biggest challenge... I can only trade end-of-day, I can spend 1-2 hours looking at the markets, evening in Europe... so I can trade D1 bars only... and the really A+ setups there may be just 2-4 per month... how many years will it take me to learn to be consistently profitable if I trade just a few times per month?! And of course, if I over-trade like I did, I will be losing money.

Can anyone please recommend the right approach for me, given my time constraints? It seems the only options I have are
- trade end-of-day the D1 bars, price action at key levels (i.e. stick to james16 - inspired method)
- daytrade 5M chart from 19.00 to 23.00 CET (almost everyone says this is even harder and I should start with higher TFs, so I don't day trade)
- place set & forget limit orders at supply / demand zones on H1 (interestingly, I test it on demo, and after 20+ trades I am in profit)
- any other options?

Thanks!
Michal9
  • #129,133
  • Dec 9, 2013 5:02am Dec 9, 2013 5:02am
Quoting michal9
... trade end-of-day the D1 bars, price action at key levels (i.e. stick to james16 - inspired method) -
  • #129,134
  • Dec 9, 2013 6:34am Dec 9, 2013 6:34am
Quoting peppe.9999
{quote} HELLO ! I hope that my contribution is appreciated. looking at the price, I see more 'a bearish situation, under the brn and the important level. surely we have a congestion between two important levels.= 90 brn and 95! {image}
Great graphics Peppe! Very nice looking chart and you very well could be right. I am looking for price action on the D1 or H4 chart to buy to the 95 level. Right now specifically the 92.21 area as the weekly pin has been breached to the upside. It is just a short term trade and nothing more. When it comes to long term predicting (monthly/yearly)and chart reading, I have not yet developed the patience or skillset to accurately forecast price movement.

Best regards,

K.I.S.S.
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  • #129,135
  • Dec 9, 2013 8:36am Dec 9, 2013 8:36am
ok, I agree with your idea.
I made a general analysis of the timeframe lower price then clearly you will find many opportunities'.
I prefer to follow the directions of higher time frames.

I apologize for writing but are not native speakers

soon
  • #129,136
  • Dec 9, 2013 8:56am Dec 9, 2013 8:56am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} updated chart, it's a movin {image}
this one has been moving well I am now with some locked in profit

looking for a little bit more but we are at the FTA
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  • #129,137
  • Dec 9, 2013 10:04am Dec 9, 2013 10:04am
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  • #129,138
  • Dec 9, 2013 11:58am Dec 9, 2013 11:58am
Quoting michal9
Thanks a lot albus999... now I see that. I traded into a hurdle PPZ support, looks like. And indeed, it looked like a pin when I placed my order and went to bed, but when it closed an hour later, it looked like a doji. Still, there was a H4 pin anyway. But yes, got the point, it wasn't an A-trade. That may be my biggest challenge... I can only trade end-of-day, I can spend 1-2 hours looking at the markets, evening in Europe... so I can trade D1 bars only... and the really A+ setups there may be just 2-4 per month... how many years will it take me...
michal - I was just perusing through this thread and happened upon your post. I would like to offer up my humble analysis of your trade and my thought process for it. Bear in mind, this is just my own thought process - it's ultimately your thought process that matters.

I would like to break it down into two parts - first, the setup itself, and second, the fact that it actually did go to target.

1) The pin bar setup. As a few others have already pointed out, it didn't close as a pin bar so this was technically not a valid pin bar setup. But even if it had closed as it did when you placed the trade, there are a few reasons I wouldn't have taken it, and it has to do with the size of the pin bar itself in relation to the average range of the other bars on the chart.

This "pin" was tiny which would have put me off. But why exactly? Simply because if we expect that PPZ to be sold, and sellers were in charge at that time, the rejection should have been much stronger. What does that look like on a chart? A longer nose, and a stronger close. In other words, if the sellers were truly in charge, they should have been able to push price back down well into the range it just broke out of before it, but they couldn't - they could barely push price down below the high of the prior candle when you placed your trade. Simply, the sellers in that area were weak (at that time). Since there wasn't a lot of space on this trade I would have required a much stronger sign that bears are entering there than the bar you sold. Remember that in the candle before, there were sellers in that area that had their trade go against them and they need to buy to get out (note that the candle before it was an inside day break - it broke the range to the downside and then quickly reversed to the upside. What does that mean? There are sellers desperate to get out - that is, to buy - right in the area you were looking to sell / right where your sell stop was). In other words, your sell stop was in an area where everyone was looking to buy.

2) Now the fact that it got to target. You actually identified and nailed a good PPZ. How do we know this, objectively? Because price respected the level and bounced off of it - and, got to your target. So even though you didn't technically have a pin bar setup, what you actually had here was a decent level to sell. Which brings me to where you put your stop.

If you know you have a good level to sell and you expect it to hold, where should your stop go?

The answer is, NOT on the level (it needs to be behind the level). Look where you had your stop. Your stop was practically right on the PPZ - right in the middle of the action!

Remember a PPZ is a decision point. It's a price at which traders will be making decisions and orders will be filled. You don't want your stop order to be one of the orders filled!

Hope this helps.

Regarding your time constraints - I'm not sure what to suggest. The D1 close is pretty important IMHO.
If you can't tell what the herd is doing...you probably are the herd.
  • #129,139
  • Dec 9, 2013 1:17pm Dec 9, 2013 1:17pm
Thank you felixcattus. This is VERY helpful. And I really appreciate that you have taken time to analyze my trade.

My learning... next time before I trade a pin bar:
- look for a long nose of the pinbar that stands out, longer than average bar
- look for a strong close, first of all wait for the candle to close
- analyze bar by bar what was before, to understand where the orders are
- place a stop behind the zone, not only behind the pinbar

Thanks again. I intend to make sure the next setup I will post will be better one :-)
Michal9
  • #129,140
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:27pm Dec 9, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting michal9
Would you please look this trade and tell me...
Ahoj Michal,
If you had to take this trade, maybe this info can be helpful as to have better understanding where to place your SL in such case.
All the best!


Link to Jarroo & chanya's "bible" : PBT Method
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