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  • #3,221
  • Edited Dec 8, 2013 11:04am Dec 7, 2013 11:50am | Edited Dec 8, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Boy Wonder
1.3720 is an upside target on EURUSD, the top of the bull channel meets a measured move upwards. It'll probably hit on Monday. Funny how cable has turned weak over the last few days. This is visible also in the EURGBP cross. Given the fundamental outlook for the UK vs Europe it's *interesting* that cable is weakening against euro. Maybe I'm guilty of confirmation bias but that just confirms for me the stinky rotten smell of this euro strength. It stinks to high heaven of a countertrend squeeze and I am holding all EUR (and GBP) shorts, they will...

BW

I am doing my end of week analysis and I am thinking the same about EurGbp. It should not be anywhere near where it is at right now. Does the market not believe our economic data in UK? Do they not trust our Canadian Bank Chairman? I dont know

I laughed out loud when I read how firmly you are holding those eur and gbp shorts. Have you thought about writing. I understood what you were conveying easily and quickly. As for me the $ index has broken support and I have to see what it will do on Monday. I do agree that the $ will get stronger but how do we profit from this when it is going the other way?

Rehab because of the break in support @8050 the president of the Dollar Bulls League resigned despite our pleading that this was probably a temporary setback. So the position is vacant. When I call the upmove (when it comes) and profit from it I will put myself forward for the position

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,222
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:06pm Dec 7, 2013 12:06pm
Dollar Index Weekly
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,223
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:07pm Dec 7, 2013 12:07pm
UsdChf Weekly
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,224
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:15pm Dec 7, 2013 12:15pm
UsdCad

Higher crude oil price CAD positive as well
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,225
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:29pm Dec 7, 2013 12:29pm
EurGbp Weekly
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,226
  • Dec 7, 2013 1:08pm Dec 7, 2013 1:08pm
Crude Oil.
Fundamentals are against my thoughts as it is believed that things are getting better which will lead to more demand and higher prices...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,227
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:21am Dec 8, 2013 11:21am
Dow Jones 30.
If price continues up and the technical signs suggest this will be so Ii means we are all out risk on. 'Risk on' is not good for the $ index. Throw tapering into the mix and we have a reason for a massive fall in the markets. But would Yellen want to rock the boat this december? And sour the Christmas mood for the baby boomers?

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,228
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:40am Dec 8, 2013 11:40am
Gold and Silver
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,229
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:43am Dec 8, 2013 11:43am
Hey Olu, thanks for the charts. Somehow they seem to give a fresh perspective. the DX one suggests there is ample room for a move to 1.38.
How about this for the Dow? It takes balls, but naked ATM weekly put sales could really return a bundle of cash over the next month, IF the markets do this or something like it - i.e. effectively go nowhere. I think there is a very good chance they do go nowhere.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,230
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:47am Dec 8, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Olu
Gold and Silver {image} {image}
Problem is extended moves down usually end with a capitulation bottom aka spike bottom. Not always, but it serves the purpose of taking out early/weak longs.
I think the chances it bounces before double testing 1175 is less than 50-50. It could though bounce to say 1275 before dropping $100; impossible of course to know.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,231
  • Dec 8, 2013 12:07pm Dec 8, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Problem is extended moves down usually end with a capitulation bottom aka spike bottom. Not always, but it serves the purpose of taking out early/weak longs. I think the chances it bounces before double testing 1175 is less than 50-50. It could though bounce to say 1275 before dropping $100; impossible of course to know.
Hi BW

We have spoken about this spike top/botom business before and I have looked back on the charts and seen that there is a distinct possibility this could happen. So you have a point. Bears would like to flex their muscles. I am using this chart to explore the possibility of a massive triangle being formed. This usually says it is not the final low for the bears could allow for some upmove before driving it down hard

Longer term you know I believe deflation is on its way (despite QExxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx) so 1175 might not be the ultimate low. Thanks for your reply BW. Much appreciated

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,232
  • Dec 8, 2013 6:16pm Dec 8, 2013 6:16pm
Hey Olu, some thoughts on the weekly EURGBP chart to start the week. Seems to me the path of least resistance is down, unless and until we see a good thrust which takes us above that 200WMA. Both the 100 and 200 have been declining now for some time, and price is now below the 200.
I don't trade it but look at it for comparison with the reading of the EURUSD and GBPUSD crosses.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,233
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:43am Dec 9, 2013 12:43am
Yes, the week close of $ and gold is making me more beliver that the next move of $ is down and hence my alternative Gold senario will work, gold will go up. I see that Olu also see it that way through his EW analsysis, which makes me more firm on my view. Good week to every one.
  • #3,234
  • Dec 9, 2013 8:35am Dec 9, 2013 8:35am
Silver:

Making another attempt to go higher. See if it can break above resistance here.
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  • #3,235
  • Dec 9, 2013 10:52am Dec 9, 2013 10:52am
DX action is still contained within a bull flag. Or not. The trouble is thinking about it you can keep pulling the lower channel line down...which doesn't really count.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,236
  • Dec 9, 2013 1:06pm Dec 9, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
DX action is still contained within a bull flag. Or not. The trouble is thinking about it you can keep pulling the lower channel line down...which doesn't really count. {image}

My view of US $
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  • #3,237
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:03pm Dec 9, 2013 2:03pm
Silver - More upside in a downtrend...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,238
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:06pm Dec 9, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting srt
{quote} My view of US $ {image}

Hi Srt

I agree with you analysis on the $ index. An early attempt to rally this morning fizzled out quickly. This downmove has helped the precious metals though.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,239
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:09pm Dec 9, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting srt
Silver: Making another attempt to go higher. See if it can break above resistance here. {image}
Posted my chart before I saw your post Srt. Silver is moving up and has overcome a trendline. We'll see how this develops...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,240
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:11pm Dec 9, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
DX action is still contained within a bull flag. Or not. The trouble is thinking about it you can keep pulling the lower channel line down...which doesn't really count. {image}

Hi BW

That bull flag is getting awfully deep and it needs to give dollar bulls (like me) some nice action to the upside. Price is right on the lower boundaries right now...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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