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  • #9,241
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:35pm Dec 6, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting Moonie
{quote} Cheers Dustin, Going back to your earlier comments about slippage, I have experienced this a few times myself, very annoying. I've experimented with a few brokers and the latest one is very good for not widening the spread, so my OCO strategy works quite well. When you say you always Buy, what pairs do you trade? Do you always go short USD?
Hey Moonie,

I mainly trade EU and on occasion UJ and GU I usually just buy EU with small SL and Big TP and its working for me

Cheers,

Dustin
  • #9,242
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:10am Dec 7, 2013 12:10am
Quoting Tony112
I'll put a buy order of 8,500,000 at exactly 8:28 SL 17 TP 120 Loss: -14450$ Win: +102000$ Retracting SL to 0 as soon as price is safe. Good luck.

Hi Tony,

one question here ... do you still use 98 % of margin to trade ? I am asking because I use oanda since 2007, and I have problem with slippage on stop loss over 10M single order ... do you split your 8.5M to 2-3 orders ?

Btw: have you ever experineced slippage on stop loss ?

Thanks in advance, happy trading to you all
Browsing forexfactory since 2006
  • #9,243
  • Dec 7, 2013 1:56am Dec 7, 2013 1:56am
Quoting rtx
{quote} Hi Tony, one question here ... do you still use 98 % of margin to trade ? I am asking because I use oanda since 2007, and I have problem with slippage on stop loss over 10M single order ... do you split your 8.5M to 2-3 orders ? Btw: have you ever experineced slippage on stop loss ? Thanks in advance, happy trading to you all

I don't experience slippage but my orders above 8M are rare. I can't seem to pass above the half a mil balance because I gamble and spend a lot like tonight. I only place 1 order.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,244
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:03am Dec 7, 2013 2:03am
Quoting Ariful Mamun
{quote} Hi Tony Have you collect news data that releised for record any research? Regards.

I just save screenshots, that's all. There' posted all over this thread. I also have a collection of about 500 news screen captures on the 5 sec chart.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,245
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:41am Dec 7, 2013 3:41am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I don't experience slippage but my orders above 8M are rare. I can't seem to pass above the half a mil balance because I gamble and spend a lot like tonight. I only place 1 order.
Thank you for fast reply.

Well dont tell me about gambling I trade more then 8 years and know your situation very good

May I ask why you dont trade news like - nzd cash rate decision, nzd cpi, aud cash rate, aud employment change ? Due to 40pips spread ?
Browsing forexfactory since 2006
  • #9,246
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:02am Dec 7, 2013 6:02am
Quoting dvanderlinde
Grabbed +47 pips off of UJ hope others caught some of these pips Doubled my account this week Have a good weekend all! {image}

Well done Dustin, you picked the perfect pair to trade the NFP.

  • #9,247
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:59am Dec 7, 2013 7:59am
Quoting rtx
{quote} Thank you for fast reply. Well dont tell me about gambling I trade more then 8 years and know your situation very good May I ask why you dont trade news like - nzd cash rate decision, nzd cpi, aud cash rate, aud employment change ? Due to 40pips spread ?
Low impacts, retracing prices, slow moving pairs, and high spreads. I'm usually aiming for 200 pips TP. Only preferential news trading. I try to restrain to p.1 of this thread (the list). I can make an exception if I spot some other good ones.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,248
  • Edited 11:25pm Dec 8, 2013 11:19pm | Edited 11:25pm
Tony,

I historically tested going long on EUR/USD for NFP using 3 years tick data from MBTrading.
It wins 58% of the time and profits by 260 pips. Interestingly, the same historical test (long only)
on the USD/JPY pair wins only 41% of the time and loses 100 pips. This is simply because
long on EUR/USD is short on USD where long on USD/JPY is long on the USD.

Questions:
1) Will you switch to short only for EUR/USD when the USD economy gets strong again?
2) Or will just stick with long only and hold on through long periods of draw down? I ask because it
seems that going long only on EUR/USD works well for now due to economy in USD. But that win
rate will surely change in the future.
3) What do you think of the idea to trade simultaneously EUR/USD and USD/JPY (and or other pairs)
as a hedge for NFP since they usually move exactly opposite on news. By trading both it seems the
combined system will continue to profit even after the USD economy gets strong again then the
win rate will switch in favor of USD/JPY and losing on EUR/USD.

For reference, rules coded into the historical test are:
1. Enter long 10 seconds prior to news.
2. Set SL at 15 pips unless the spread is already larger.
3. If so, then make the SL at 5 pips more than the current spread.
4. Trail the SL closely to catch most of the big initial reaction to the news release.
5. Hold a 50 pips profit target.
  • #9,249
  • Dec 9, 2013 6:40am Dec 9, 2013 6:40am
Quoting tickzoom
Tony, I historically tested going long on EUR/USD for NFP using 3 years tick data from MBTrading. It wins 58% of the time and profits by 260 pips. Interestingly, the same historical test (long only) on the USD/JPY pair wins only 41% of the time and loses 100 pips. This is simply because long on EUR/USD is short on USD where long on USD/JPY is long on the USD. Questions: 1) Will you switch to short only for EUR/USD when the USD economy gets strong again? 2) Or will just stick with long only and hold on through long periods of draw down? I ask because...
Nice study. Did you include SL reduction to 0 right after a winning news? At the moment, I do not base myself on the financial situations in the US or Eurozone. The system is purely based on on a mathematical edge. USD/JPY is a good pair to trade but I currently don't hedge. I put max lots on the NFP and a calculated SL. I'm restoring some pips after last week's failure. Waiting for next major news.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,250
  • Dec 9, 2013 7:10am Dec 9, 2013 7:10am
Hi Tony

Gov Carney is speaking at 5:15 PM GMT today and FOMC's Bullard at 6:05 PM GMT. Will you be trading these?
  • #9,251
  • Dec 9, 2013 8:39am Dec 9, 2013 8:39am
Restoring pips? If pips restoring method works so why not to stick to it exclusivley?
  • #9,252
  • Dec 9, 2013 8:59am Dec 9, 2013 8:59am
Tony, thanks for your reply and also my hat is off to you with respect for sharing your trading ideas here. Answers/comments below:

Quoting Tony112
Nice study. Did you include SL reduction to 0 right after a winning news?
Well, yes it does go to 0 SL because it closely trails winning news with a stop loss. However, please share your definition of "winning news", Tony.

Modifying my definition of "winning news" brought both USD/JPY and EUR/USD to 50% win rate and both profitable. However, I'm now testing the rules on GBP/USD and USD/CHF and they weren't profitable at first because my definition of "winning news" needs improvement.

So here's my current definition of "winning news" as a work in progress. Perhaps you can point out any error.

Winning News: 1) Wait for the market to "calm" down a bit after release of the NFP, so wait 10 seconds after the spread narrows and stops gapping. 2) Then take the highest offer price since the release time and set a stop loss 10 pips from the highest price. 3) New rule: Only set the stop loss when the highest price is more than 10 pips from the trade entry price.

FYI: The logic to wait till the spread narrows and stops gapping for 10 seconds is necessary to avoids the trailing SL or break even SL getting hit by the wide spread.

Quote
At the moment, I do not base myself on the financial situations in the US or Eurozone. The system is purely based on on a mathematical edge.

This makes sense now that it's clear over 3 years testing that both pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, do have winning news 50% of the time. Of course, that win rate will vary depending on the SL and TP and definition of "winning news" that you use.

Note: The rule #3 above to trail after winning at least 10 pips fixed the win rates of E/U and U/J pairs to 50% and makes E/U and U/J both profitable. But GBP/USD and USD/CHF pairs show that my definition of "winning news" still needs work. So far, starting to trail after winning by at least 30 pips (instead of 10) makes GBP/USD profitable.

Quote
USD/JPY is a good pair to trade but I currently don't hedge. I put max lots on the NFP and a calculated SL. I'm restoring some pips after last week's failure. Waiting for next major news.

Understood. FYI, and closer inspection of NFP on the pairs over 3 years shows that they aren't a "perfect" hedge anyway. Sometimes both win or both lose.

Another Question: It appears that different news releases like NFP versus ECB versus Unemployment reports have different "personalities" of market behavior upon release. And furthermore, that personality seems to differ from one pair to the next. Apparently, the rules must be slightly different to account for this.
  • #9,253
  • Dec 9, 2013 11:12am Dec 9, 2013 11:12am
An interesting observation. Food for thought on trading long only on news events.

An extremely good reason to trade "long only" (as opposed to short only) on news releases is because most trading software only displays the Forex bid price for creating chart bars. They completely ignore the offer price. It took me a while to realize this because the software that I use does display both bid and offer on charts. At first, I was using the highest offer price for trailing SL. But today it became clear that it's simpler and less risky to trail using the highest bid price.

In contrast, if you trade short, it will be best to trail against the lowest offer price but most software doesn't display the offer price. So trading long only is the only practical option on most software during news events. Trading short will be difficult/risky when you cannot see the offer price on your chart.
  • #9,254
  • Dec 9, 2013 6:30pm Dec 9, 2013 6:30pm
Tony, testing the rules on the NAB Employment Change for AUD profits fine
on the AUD/USD pair on 3 years of tick data from MBTrading.

However, testing on ECB Draghi Speaks and ECB Press Conferences doesn't.
It seems that market reaction to these speeches and conferences is much
more "messy". In fact, Tony, you mention giving the speeches "one more try"
if it hits the SL but the trading rules for another "try" are very unclear.
  • #9,255
  • Dec 10, 2013 1:52am Dec 10, 2013 1:52am
Anyone will trade this:
If you will, share SL/TP with newcomer.. ))

1:30pm
GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m
  • #9,256
  • Dec 10, 2013 3:40am Dec 10, 2013 3:40am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I don't experience slippage but my orders above 8M are rare. I can't seem to pass above the half a mil balance because I gamble and spend a lot like tonight. I only place 1 order.

I tried trade gbp manufacturing ... to check that "slippage problem" ..and my stop loss was slippaged again .. can you please check your PM what I sent you ? Thanks
Browsing forexfactory since 2006
  • #9,257
  • Dec 10, 2013 3:47am Dec 10, 2013 3:47am
Quoting rtx
{quote} I tried trade gbp manufacturing ... to check that "slippage problem" ..and my stop loss was slippaged again .. can you please check your PM what I sent you ? Thanks
Hi RTX

I trade with oanda and didnt experience any slippage with GBP manufacturing news. My trade is still live.

You need to check this with oanda. It is strange....
  • #9,258
  • Dec 10, 2013 4:35am Dec 10, 2013 4:35am
Hello, I fell asleep and my alarm was too low. I didn't wake up for GBP news Manufacturing Production m/m
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,259
  • Dec 10, 2013 4:37am Dec 10, 2013 4:37am
Quoting tickzoom
Tony, testing the rules on the NAB Employment Change for AUD profits fine on the AUD/USD pair on 3 years of tick data from MBTrading. However, testing on ECB Draghi Speaks and ECB Press Conferences doesn't. It seems that market reaction to these speeches and conferences is much more "messy". In fact, Tony, you mention giving the speeches "one more try" if it hits the SL but the trading rules for another "try" are very unclear.

I do 5 sec chart time frame surveillance. Break-out = entry. Normally a 5 to 7 pip instant drop or rise.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,260
  • Dec 10, 2013 5:29am Dec 10, 2013 5:29am
When I see a thread started in 2009 and then the same thread starter posting successfully in 2013....that shows there is no question of this method being profitable. Have a lot of reading to do, thanks for posting your system.

All the best,
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