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AUD/USD

  • #70,341
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:12am Dec 5, 2013 11:12am
Quoting RussJ
1st target just hit 73... now pullback too 40/34 level before push on to 95 then eventually 9110 but I feel we may linger all night now and nfp take us too 9110.... if we hit 9110 today then nfp could take aussie long tomorrow. if price stays at the 9110 level possible price flips of NFP to 9040 then finshes the day at 9170 although there is lots of bears pushing from 9110 to 8950 tomorrow but that daily stochastic could come into play and if it does the weekly will kick in next week so who knows
Russ, what will happen tomorrow if news exceeds expectations?
  • #70,342
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:55am Dec 5, 2013 11:55am
There is still no long sign after 9054 break
  • #70,343
  • Dec 5, 2013 12:42pm Dec 5, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting paymeinpips
{quote} Russ, what will happen tomorrow if news exceeds expectations?

I don't really care about news.. I just trade Support and Resistance and co ordinate it with the Fractal. I will trade NFP and have my areas for the shorts and for the longs. To be fair we might spoke up then short too 8930 and next week the stochastics kick in for the long side. I don't know but the Stochastics are about to turn so perhaps tomorrow is the last short day on Aussie for a bit.

what I am sure of though is we reach 9110 sometime in Asia or Tomorrow and it retraces too 9050/40.. From there will depend on NFP it could either spike to 9170 or keep falling to 8930 that's my opinion but I see 9110/20 getting hit for sure and retracing back too 9050 for sure
  • #70,344
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:09pm Dec 5, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting RussJ
{quote} what I am sure of though is we reach 9110 sometime in Asia or Tomorrow and it retraces too 9050/40.. From there will depend on NFP it could either spike to 9170 or keep falling to 8930 that's my opinion but I see 9110/20 getting hit for sure and retracing back too 9050 for sure

hope you wrong for my sake
  • #70,345
  • Edited 1:43pm Dec 5, 2013 1:11pm | Edited 1:43pm
buying dips to 0.9132

estimated time arrival 20 mins before NY open
  • #70,346
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:26pm Dec 5, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting Gwan
today the bad data didn't drive the aud lower as expected (by me) it may indicate that the oversold is really oversold, and the next down movement would be very volatile. if not mostly in the form of spikes. which means, it is a good area to scalp.
If you're referring to US data, there is a school of thought out there that believes, if the data = good, then taper = on, if data = bad, then taper = off. Therefore, good data, bad outcomes. I personally think the taper tantrum is BS, but I'm just a shiny special snowflake in an avalanche of absurdity. This has been the cycle for a long time now, and most likely won't be broken until there is actual taper, which most likely will never come anyway. I suppose it's just an excuse to trade.
  • #70,347
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:14pm Dec 5, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} $1 Parity? Not too sure if we can reach that level again, at least for the time being, taking into all the resistance above. 1st resistance, price need to clear .905 then there will be some sign of bullishness to reach .91 and .913. Otherwise, we are still deep down into bears territory.
since posible RBA & RBNZ hiking earlier....then....carry trader will favor buy AUD..thats the reason
Bismillah
  • #70,348
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:20pm Dec 5, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting zew
Aud is oversold current rates attracts massive investment from oversea，as you can see on recent newspaper in Au so I dont believe Aud can stay below this level
current rates don't reflect future actions when RBA looking to cut further.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #70,349
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:44pm Dec 5, 2013 6:44pm
Price looks like it is being held up by a string here, lol. At least on a small timeframe.
  • #70,350
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:45pm Dec 5, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting waifong
{quote} omg.....then i suppose to trade for aus/usd !! DAMM !!! WHAT I SUPPOSE TO DO NOW ? -200USD LOSS NOW...MY MARGIN SMALL.....
You are worried for 200 USD loss......mate multiply that 1000 and yet you are not close to my losses...relax...enjoy 200 dollar losses ...it will only get worse
  • #70,351
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:57pm Dec 5, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} If you're referring to US data, there is a school of thought out there that believes, if the data = good, then taper = on, if data = bad, then taper = off. Therefore, good data, bad outcomes. I personally think the taper tantrum is BS, but I'm just a shiny special snowflake in an avalanche of absurdity. This has been the cycle for a long time now, and most likely won't be broken until there is actual taper, which most likely will never come anyway. I suppose it's just an excuse to trade.
I agree with you and not only that ...it's all BS in general. this is gambling unless you are

1) a Genious
2) A fortune teller
3) The luckiest Bastard on earth
4) Insider

Less analyse this FACT, no fuss no muss, a fact, of 1 day ago:

We get GDP 0/6, when expected was 0.7 (or along those values) It was a mere drawback...and what happens the AUD falls 144 pips! It was on fire the devil was dancing and all gates of hell were open ready to receive the dying Aussie.... Fck me ! how on earth that stupid news take the aussie to a lowest level in months when a trading balance negative of almost double the predicted value take the aud UP!!!!!!!!!

i rest my case. If anything, the charts are the only thing that can help your fortune telling... news are always misleading.

Happy techincal trading or happy gambling. To me NFP will be good, aussie will lose 20 to 40 pips and then will go up...up up up ...i see no reason for aussie to break 0.90 ... but what the hell do I know!
  • #70,352
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:17pm Dec 5, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} I agree with you and not only that ...it's all BS in general. this is gambling unless you are 1) a Genious 2) A fortune teller 3) The luckiest Bastard on earth 4) Insider Less analyse this FACT, no fuss no muss, a fact, of 1 day ago: We get GDP 0/6, when expected was 0.7 (or along those values) It was a mere drawback...and what happens the AUD falls 144 pips! It was on fire the devil was dancing and all gates of hell were open ready to receive the dying Aussie.... Fck me ! how on earth that stupid news take the aussie to a lowest level in...
I don't think you have to be a genius, but you do need to be smart. I know people who make money and they are definitely not geniuses. I have been studying the market for 4-5 years and am just starting to figure it out. The hard part is filtering out all the crap. There is so many methods that don't work, it is very diificult to find out what does. I think at this point I have tried just about everything. I have made just about every mistake you can make. Now, I have pretty much stopped using indicators altogether. I think they can be read, but it is easier to watch the raw price action. Define your levels and try to follow the trend. Then you have to manage your risk. Never trade less than 2 to 1 risk reward, you want to make 2 or 3 or more times your risk on each trade. I do not trade news events at all. I see a red news event on the calandar I stay out of the market. Maybe if I was in the futures market I would play it, but the spread widens too much on cash fx, if I am not up at least 20-30 pips already, I will close out my position before big news. Good luck, hard work and dedication should when the day, it is only a matter of time. For me it has been several years, others probably learn more quickly or are handed better information in the beginning.
  • #70,353
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:31pm Dec 5, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} I agree with you and not only that ...it's all BS in general. this is gambling unless you are 1) a Genious 2) A fortune teller 3) The luckiest Bastard on earth 4) Insider Less analyse this FACT, no fuss no muss, a fact, of 1 day ago: We get GDP 0/6, when expected was 0.7 (or along those values) It was a mere drawback...and what happens the AUD falls 144 pips! It was on fire the devil was dancing and all gates of hell were open ready to receive the dying Aussie.... Fck me ! how on earth that stupid news take the aussie to a lowest level in...
Money Makes Money
  • #70,354
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:33pm Dec 5, 2013 7:33pm
Quoting tony95
{quote} I don't think you have to be a genius, but you do need to be smart. I know people who make money and they are definitely not geniuses. I have been studying the market for 4-5 years and am just starting to figure it out. The hard part is filtering out all the crap. There is so many methods that don't work, it is very diificult to find out what does. I think at this point I have tried just about everything. I have made just about every mistake you can make. Now, I have pretty much stopped using indicators altogether. I think they can be read,...
Money Makes Money
  • #70,355
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:07pm Dec 5, 2013 8:07pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} That is very important to walk those calories off. Let us know when you are eating a Chicken Sandwich next time.................and maybe go for a run......
You're awesome alien. Love having you here. Seriously.
  • #70,356
  • Dec 5, 2013 9:41pm Dec 5, 2013 9:41pm
It seems untill US data is out nothing will change.
Trend chaser !!!
  • #70,357
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:09pm Dec 5, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} I agree with you and not only that ...it's all BS in general. this is gambling unless you are 1) a Genious 2) A fortune teller 3) The luckiest Bastard on earth 4) Insider Less analyse this FACT, no fuss no muss, a fact, of 1 day ago: We get GDP 0/6, when expected was 0.7 (or along those values) It was a mere drawback...and what happens the AUD falls 144 pips! It was on fire the devil was dancing and all gates of hell were open ready to receive the dying Aussie.... Fck me ! how on earth that stupid news take the aussie to a lowest level in...

You don't have to e a genius, many systems work, for instance I trade support and resistance and can see it by jus looking at the candles, I can tell the fractal and where it is supposed to go by looking at what candle it just hit, some people trade EMA's, you can work out the targets by looking at the larger EMA's, recently I worked out an algorithym just by playing around with a constant value and putting a formula in something that is always there on the chart and it gives specific values so when that specific pip is hit it will bounce to one of the other specific areas etc, However, Forex is difficult for most for one reason and I'm no different here, The key tools needed are Patience, Discipline, and self Control these are the needs to become a professional in the markets as many people can analyse. For instance I mentor a kid who works for a fund and I said t him yesterday why are you short in Aud... hew was in at 90.40... I shorted 9050 but exited 90.15... I said t him if it higher lows here which I expected it too then look at 90.73 pullback too 90.40/36 then onto 90.95 pullback too 90.65/60 then up to 9110/20 then it will retrace too 90/50/40 but is anyone's guess then as it could fall through the floor too 89.60/30 area and next week could be the proper up move or the pullback to 90.40 could go to 9170 but anyhow.. it higher lowed and he has lost before taking the other side (Counter trend) so wouldn't look at the possibility that we would break higher, I heard someone say on 4 hour and daily chart on here we will drop too 8950 because we broke support at around 90.50.. my answer was we will break above the 90.50 to 9073 then that will become support. Now this doesn't take a genius, the day before yesterday in New York Aussie was being bought think it went around 50 pips etc and in Asia it was being bought so yesterday morning we were at a neckline of an inverted Head and shoulders at 50 so it was not just going to climb straight over... London traders wanted to buy cheap so we sold it back to Support as it had been bought the afternoon before and in Asia, so logical to sell back too support then try and buy it long to continue the afternoon before and Asias move and it looks on a 4 hour chart the lad said what do I see it looks like a 4th wave retracement... what I'm getting at there is many successful ways to trade as long as you have the Emotional and pyschological side dealt with
  • #70,358
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:16am Dec 6, 2013 12:16am
Might have retest to .9000 be careful!
  • #70,359
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:23am Dec 6, 2013 4:23am
I think I am going to keep my balls intact and keep all my short trades through the news storm and most likely next week.
  • #70,360
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:33am Dec 6, 2013 5:33am
Quoting paymeinpips
I think I am going to keep my balls intact and keep all my short trades through the news storm and most likely next week.
Thats the right thing to do....
Trend chaser !!!
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