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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,841
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:20am Dec 5, 2013 1:20am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Direction is not predetermined without fail. Ultimately it's always order driven. We are facing a strong bull run and yesterday's price action suggest that we could be looking at a pullback that started in the 169 area. After a 1000 points run up it's very likely that a few stop (sell) orders have been building up below yesterday's low at 167.30ish and 167 the figure and it's also likely that these orders outnumber buy stops to the upside at these levels. This of course might change as we get more news, data and some of those orders are...
We've had this conversation in the past on this forum. My argument is that nearly everything is predetermined and most other things are but noise. And my standard retort is when one accepts the fact and gets over the disbelief, shock or general unwillingness to accept, life is somewhat simpler. I think in trading the expression would be akin to "the trend is your friend".

FYI, 114 weeks ago this week, GJ began to set up a reversal pattern that was 1662 pips in height. It broke out and finally retested it in November 2012 at 125.64 By the time it had reached 169.13, it had traveled (to the nearest 5 pips) 4350 pips. When you multiply the height of that reversal pattern by the Fibonacci multiple of 2.618 and apply that to the break out point, you arrive at (again, to the nearest 5 pips) 4350 pips. Those number etc also coincide with wave theory, but I figured that anyone could get their head around and be a little more accepting of simple arithmetic.

Predetermination, magic or sheer coincidence? I have no idea. But where it stopped, it not only met a very long term trendline (dating back to 2000 at 148.5 that broke in 2008 and was retested twice in 2009 at 163), as well as the monthly 100 sma.

Possibly it will progress further, but thems the facts so far.

Regards
  • #9,842
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:36am Dec 5, 2013 1:36am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} We've had this conversation in the past on this forum. My argument is that nearly everything is predetermined and most other things are but noise. And my standard retort is when one accepts the fact and gets over the disbelief, shock or general unwillingness to accept, life is somewhat simpler. I think in trading the expression would be akin to "the trend is your friend". FYI, 114 weeks ago this week, GJ began to set up a reversal pattern that was 1662 pips in height. It broke out and finally retested it in November 2012 at 125.64 By the...
With today lined up news, what do you think would happen to GJ?
  • #9,843
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:00am Dec 5, 2013 2:00am
Quoting Nobleactor
{quote} With today lined up news, what do you think would happen to GJ?
I hate giving any advice, but I think it will edge down, per a post a few hours ago. Really happy to express where support and resistance is, but I made a very wrong call once and was blasted for it. Please make up your own mind, because, after all, it's your own money.
  • #9,844
  • Dec 5, 2013 4:22am Dec 5, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} We've had this conversation in the past on this forum. My argument is that nearly everything is predetermined and most other things are but noise. And my standard retort is when one accepts the fact and gets over the disbelief, shock or general unwillingness to accept, life is somewhat simpler. I think in trading the expression would be akin to "the trend is your friend". FYI, 114 weeks ago this week, GJ began to set up a reversal pattern that was 1662 pips in height. It broke out and finally retested it in November 2012 at 125.64 By the...
Hi Mpt. My approach to the market, based on direct personal experience, is more short term oriented and less fatalistic. I look at at the market as a dynamic thing, constantly evolving and changing directions based on an ever changing order flow. I do not believe that price will reach some predetermined levels because it was destined to do so, or better said, to the best of my knowledge I cannot grasp that concept and therefore I would not risk my money on it. Having said that, I recognize that my beliefs have limitations and are not the absolute truth and I'm always open to changing them or adapting them by learning about new perspectives, like yours for instance. In essence, if you keep posting your analysis and levels, I will always be interested in reading them
  • #9,845
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:05am Dec 5, 2013 5:05am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Hi Mpt. My approach to the market, based on direct personal experience, is more short term oriented and less fatalistic. I look at at the market as a dynamic thing, constantly evolving and changing directions based on an ever changing order flow. I do not believe that price will reach some predetermined levels because it was destined to do so, or better said, to the best of my knowledge I cannot grasp that concept and therefore I would not risk my money on it. Having said that, I recognize that my beliefs have limitations and are not the...
Thanks mate. Funnily, I don't just view it as dynamic thing but I ascribe a personality to it. I guess that just makes it easier to hurl abuse at.
  • #9,846
  • Edited 5:04pm Dec 5, 2013 10:49am | Edited 5:04pm
TRADE UPDATE:

So last night i mentioned my 2nd analysis on the GJ, and mentioned a kings crown forming on the 15M charts. i was hoping to get in at the 167.80 level since a sub a-b gave me that figure but i was about 5 pips shy of getting fulfilled in my order . anyways as i mentioned the new A-B downtrend boundary is at price point 168.37(A) and 166.86 (B) with a expected D at 165.92. well currently we JUST hit a low of 165.86 taking out our target , anyways for those of you that were able to get in and got in at the market price than i applaud you for a job well done . but for those of us that didnt get in remember the market moves in waves! and its always a fight between the bulls and the bears . so be patient and wait for the next setup and NEVER RUSH in !!

P.S (FULL DISCRETION) - even though i currently trade on the 15M charts i DO NOT rely on them alone! 15M charts are WAY TOO volatile and are NOT 100% accurate. I ALWAYS check my trades on the 120, 240, and dailys prior to placing any trades especially if im leaving it for an overnight one

NOTE:Yesterday i mentioned there was a UPTREND CAPITAL A-B between 165.72 (A), and 167.88 (B), now since we got a low of 165.86 im expecting that capital A-B to be taken out and the market to proceed further downside from here for profit taking, look at the 240 charts as the market tends to lean towards that and also bear in mind our daily limit was 163.75 and we FINALLY got a U-Turn on the daily chart with a high of 169.12, if this continues its trend it will "most likely" want to drop down to AT LEAST the 38.2 retracement at price point 160.45 than head further north, anyways we wont know until we wait and see

Anyways heres a chart on the current 15M chart and lets see where it takes up from here and keep posted for further charts and price targets
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,847
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:42pm Dec 5, 2013 1:42pm
note to self...TAKE PROFIT, dont be GREEDY...totally wrongfooted by this move down, as i was expecting 170 before some profit taking...so now im waiting patiently for a return up to 168, a double top at 169 probably unlikely...and if it falls to 1.65 or lower than il be banging my head in the wall
  • #9,848
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:46pm Dec 5, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting monkey@forex
note to self...TAKE PROFIT, dont be GREEDY...totally wrongfooted by this move down, as i was expecting 170 before some profit taking...so now im waiting patiently for a return up to 168, a double top at 169 probably unlikely...and if it falls to 1.65 or lower than il be banging my head in the wall
Totally feeling this too mate. Deep breath and try again...
  • #9,849
  • Dec 5, 2013 4:05pm Dec 5, 2013 4:05pm
Oh Nooo, Geppy is not Geppy anymore! Whyyyyy
  • #9,850
  • Dec 5, 2013 4:16pm Dec 5, 2013 4:16pm
Hi all,

do you think the last low will hold?

Is it time to buy or not?

Thk
Don't give up
  • #9,851
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:16pm Dec 5, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting geomink
Hi all, do you think the last low will hold? Is it time to buy or not? Thk

i dont think this is the bottom, its possible this thing goes to the 160 level before extending further upward than again no body knows
  • #9,852
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:17pm Dec 5, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting obhutta
{quote} i dont think this is the bottom, its possible this thing goes to the 160 level before extending further upward than again no body knows
30 pips spike
Don't give up
  • #9,853
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:28pm Dec 5, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting monkey@forex
note to self...TAKE PROFIT, dont be GREEDY...
Yes mate same issue for me. Even more important on the lower timeframes I think.
  • #9,854
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:36pm Dec 5, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I hate giving any advice, but I think it will edge down, per a post a few hours ago. Really happy to express where support and resistance is, but I made a very wrong call once and was blasted for it. Please make up your own mind, because, after all, it's your own money.
I'm surprised to hear that....blasted....if someone blasted...they must have been friggin rookies, sounds about right. I follow your posts religiously....and I was given a system that kicks azz. Your math and long term view is good input.
But the policy change was huge news...I should tell it exactly and traders would perk their ears up....but I'm too old to remember how to put it ...ECB....policy on Japans swap interest protocol or such talk as that Yep....they announced that they were changing it back to how it was from 2002 till 2007.....uuuuhh.....huh!! Yessssirrrryieeee ~~~~~the date I read it on tompsons....whenever the G/J was at 124.00 ~~~~but the article was two weeks old already....so maybe 122.00.

My client was confused and antsey....when the price was 125.12....I told him in a week we wouldn't even remember the 127's and 128's......
  • #9,855
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:47pm Dec 5, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Hi Mpt. My approach to the market, based on direct personal experience, is more short term oriented and less fatalistic. I look at at the market as a dynamic thing, constantly evolving and changing directions based on an ever changing order flow. I do not believe that price will reach some predetermined levels because it was destined to do so, or better said, to the best of my knowledge I cannot grasp that concept and therefore I would not risk my money on it. Having said that, I recognize that my beliefs have limitations and are not the...
Oh, cool Yes you're right....but go see ian copsey's posts here at FF....harmonic elliott waves...evidently, half the time the PA follows projection and retracement ratios along with a hint of elliott wave counts.....
But this leads me to believe "they" don't pull the strings all the time. They can pass levels by 15 pips for a surprise now and then.....cool
  • #9,856
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:56pm Dec 5, 2013 6:56pm
TRADE UPDATE:

Ok so im getting a consolidation between price point 166.32 and 166.07 and IF the market does NOT retrace beyond 167.34 than you SHOULD see this thing head down to the 1.618 extension at price point 164.69.

Keep In Mind:
As i mentioned in my previous 2 posts the the pattern is still in a BULLISH CAPITAL A-B boundary that's expected to extend to its D extension at 168.27 IF it stays intact BUT if the boundary is taken out at price point 165.72 than you can say its a highly plausible possibility this thing will head towards the proper extension based on the charts (so far 164.69 is our projected target).

Remember: Always trade with proper equity management, now that the moves are getting larger in pips so will the risk! before my previous trades we only has short tight stops but now since the market has been coming down nicely we need to reevaluate equity management since now the risks are almost 1 to 1 with roughly 130 pips of risk for 175 reward.

REMEMBER guys sometimes its not so bad to sit out one and wait for a proper confirmation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,857
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:23pm Dec 5, 2013 7:23pm
UPDATE:
So the market broke the conservative trendline and seems to be holding as of right now to the UPSIDE, personally im sitting this one out as it can go either way and you always have to keep this thought in your head

DON'T LET YOUR GREED EXCEED YOUR NEED! That will be the downfall to your success in the forex market

Below is the chart showing the break off the trend line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.png Size: 67 KB
  • #9,858
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:30pm Dec 5, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} Oh, cool Yes you're right....but go see ian copsey's posts here at FF....harmonic elliott waves...evidently, half the time the PA follows projection and retracement ratios along with a hint of elliott wave counts..... But this leads me to believe "they" don't pull the strings all the time. They can pass levels by 15 pips for a surprise now and then.....cool
Yep, elliott waves et al are often fine but when you look at them they are really an implementation of many other factors all chucked in together and presented in pretty packaging. And, of course, when you refer to waves, you just know that peoples' eyes will start to roll. That's why I thought that basic mathematics and a fibonacci relationship might be more acceptable - especially in this case. FYI, any eventual sustained break much over about 170 takes it to the next step which is (1650 x 3.618) + 125.6 =177.5. Just by sheer coincidence that's where the monthly 200 SMA sits. How predictable.

If this thing drops back further it may yet pick up support around 164.6/7.
  • #9,859
  • Dec 5, 2013 7:48pm Dec 5, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yep, elliott waves et al are often fine but when you look at them they are really an implementation of many other factors all chucked in together and presented in pretty packaging. And, of course, when you refer to waves, you just know that peoples' eyes will start to roll. That's why I thought that basic mathematics and a fibonacci relationship might be more acceptable - especially in this case. FYI, any eventual break much over over 170 takes it to the next step which is (1650 x 3.618) + 125.6 =177.5. Just by sheer coincidence that's where...

I love trading off technical's and elliots and i could have sworn i replied to your previous comment but i guess i didnt ... lol sorry too much time on the charts and reading, i realized that if you treat this market as a game and not so much as trading and you play it as a probabilities game than you should be fine , but once you get emotions involved and complicate things is when you start to lose everything , but yes i agree with your price targets at the 164.6/7 as my fibs show that 164.69 is the projected swing if everything holds true, im getting another upswing to 166.95 than im planning on selling to price target 164.69 and placing a stop at 167.75

take a look let me know what you think

ENTRY (SELL) - 166.95

STOP - 167.75
TAKE PROFIT - 164.69

RISK: 80 pips
REWARD: 226 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,860
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:33pm Dec 5, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting obhutta
{quote} I love trading off technical's and elliots and i could have sworn i replied to your previous comment but i guess i didnt ... lol sorry too much time on the charts and reading, i realized that if you treat this market as a game and not so much as trading and you play it as a probabilities game than you should be fine , but once you get emotions involved and complicate things is when you start to lose everything , but yes i agree with your price targets at the 164.6/7 as my fibs show that 164.69 is the projected swing...
This area could hold. Right now, UJ sits exactly on its broken channel top at 101.8. If it holds, GJ holds. If UJ drops down, then next up is the tested TL at 164.7 which is also the 38.2 of the move 158 ~169
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