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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,821
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:25pm Dec 3, 2013 11:25pm
im getting a kings crown on the 15M chart first LOW 1 -166.84, LOW 2 -167.46, LOW 3 -168.21; than the reversal with LOW 3 -167.96 LOW 4 -167.32 and expecting a LOW 5 @ 166.57 (1.618 extension), keep in mind though its on an CAPITAL uptrend so keep a keen on trendline breaks and such , ill be looking to short at 166.22 with a STOP @ 168.53 and LIMIT @ 166.57... take a look at the chart and let me know what you guys think
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  • #9,822
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:45pm Dec 3, 2013 11:45pm
I will start accumulate somewhere this week, it depend on the strength of the market.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #9,823
  • Edited 12:37am Dec 4, 2013 12:18am | Edited 12:37am
4H Price action hints up. We had 4H bullish pin, followed by 8H bullish pin (so 12H bullish pin), price trying to bounce from 20 EMA... of course this can be overridden by fundamentals any time... And Nikei bounced from 15380, if it starts climbing up again... On the other hand, Daily chart was Bearish Outside Bar, 2 Day Bearish pin... so I suspect we will see some fighting today...
  • #9,824
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:03am Dec 4, 2013 1:03am
They are watching... Norway fund leaves Tepco due to Fukushima
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...ab913fb0&hl=en
  • #9,825
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:56am Dec 4, 2013 1:56am
Definitely a bullish looking chart. Anyone trading the Asian session would have had a great entry opportunity at 16,752, when the price dipped strongly to the 76.4% fib retracement, putting in two positive candles on the 5m chart, the second of which was a hammer. The second opportunity to go long, came at 6am London time, as the price dipped down to the 5m 200sma/38.2% fib, which I'm at present holding at break even. I think the price may drop back to around 16.809 before going back up. I'll hold through the red flag services pmi with crossed fingers!
  • #9,826
  • Edited 3:08am Dec 4, 2013 2:54am | Edited 3:08am
stopped, 40 pips surrendered. I'll be looking to long again at 785/772.

ps-not doing anything now until after pmi
  • #9,827
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:37am Dec 4, 2013 3:37am
Negative pmi but couldn't break today's low on the spike down, so now it's wait and see time.
  • #9,828
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:46am Dec 4, 2013 3:46am
Quoting cat
Negative pmi but couldn't break today's low on the spike down, so now it's wait and see time.
But is still expansion, just not as expected... We'll see...
  • #9,829
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:48am Dec 4, 2013 3:48am
I would watch for a break and close below 167.30 on the hourly. That should take us to 166 or below by today or tomorrow, US data permitting of course....
  • #9,830
  • Edited 6:12am Dec 4, 2013 5:29am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting ez0770
I would watch for a break and close below 167.30 on the hourly. That should take us to 166 or below by today or tomorrow, US data permitting of course....
It's TRYING to continue - but that is normal - any pair will try until the last moment. If it cannot break under the previous low, it suggests it was only in a parallel rising channel and could have more to go.
  • #9,831
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:22am Dec 4, 2013 6:22am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It's TRYING to continue - but that is normal - any pair will try until the last moment. If it cannot break under the previous low, it suggests it was only in a parallel rising channel and could have more to go. Under 167.3, it's finished.
Direction is not predetermined without fail. Ultimately it's always order driven. We are facing a strong bull run and yesterday's price action suggest that we could be looking at a pullback that started in the 169 area. After a 1000 points run up it's very likely that a few stop (sell) orders have been building up below yesterday's low at 167.30ish and 167 the figure and it's also likely that these orders outnumber buy stops to the upside at these levels. This of course might change as we get more news, data and some of those orders are changed or pulled altogether. At this moment, all else being equal, I see the most likely scenario as being sellers having to look for liquidity lower and triggering stops and a down move to do so. US data could be the trigger or turn the bulls on again, in which case we might retests recent highs...lets see
  • #9,832
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:24am Dec 4, 2013 6:24am
Need to rest about one week, unless u r short term player, H4 and below....
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #9,833
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:04am Dec 4, 2013 8:04am
I love this pair too much
  • #9,834
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:41pm Dec 4, 2013 12:41pm
Crazy ridiculous amounts of volume supporting the bear move lower from 169. I almost posted at 169 saying it was the top, but whatever, we each gotta fend for ourselves in whatever ways we can, right? I've still been trading like crap lately, although I've been "guessing" the moves as perfectly/close to is humanly possible. I will just say keep an eye on the Daily and Weekly charts, they indicate that more selling is still to come (albeit, after the short-term bounce). The big boys push this up 1,000 pips and then send it down 500 (or so). What a joke.

Actually, I'm just angry and bitter because I missed the bulk of the move.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #9,835
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:34pm Dec 4, 2013 2:34pm
TRADE UPDATE:
So last night we has the market hit the 86 retracement and than drive its way down to the 1.18 extension and surpassing it making a LOW of 166.86
We now have a new sub A-B forming with the following:

A- 168.37
B - 166.86
C - Unknown still
D - Possibly 165.92

KEEP IN MIND - WE ARE IN A CAPITAL UPTREND A-B BOUNDARY between 165.72 (A) and 167.88 (B), so dont jump on the sell side too quick wait for the retracement of the sub a-b to finish than place your trades accordingly

Remember guys we passed the Daily D extension by almost 500 pips! Unless some major announcement is going to take place im expecting a retracement and some profit taking especially since its nearing the end of the year and holiday sales dont seem all too well. Anyways heres a graph of my next analysis.
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  • #9,836
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:55pm Dec 4, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting ez0770
Direction is not predetermined without fail. Ultimately it's always order driven. We are facing a strong bull run and yesterday's price action suggest that we could be looking at a pullback that started in the 169 area. After a 1000 points run up it's very likely that a few stop (sell) orders have been building up below yesterday's low at 167.30ish and 167 the figure and it's also likely that these orders outnumber buy stops to the upside at these levels. This of course might change as we get more news, data and some of those orders are...
ez0770, I would give you a vouch if I could. Your posts are excellent and I enjoyed reading them.

obhutta, good post as well and I agree with your analysis, but keep in mind, not everyone here speaks the elliot wave, A-B-C-, 1-2-3, language.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #9,837
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:55pm Dec 4, 2013 2:55pm

so based on the sub sub a-b im going to be placing my trades as such:

ENTRY - 167.80
STOP - 168.37
LIMIT - 165.92

RISK - 57 pips
REWARD - 188 pips

let me know your trades and how its going so far

Good luck traders
  • #9,838
  • Edited 7:53pm Dec 4, 2013 5:48pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting obhutta
so based on the sub sub a-b im going to be placing my trades as such: ENTRY - 167.80 STOP - 168.37 LIMIT - 165.92 RISK - 57 pips REWARD - 188 pips let me know your trades and how its going so far Good luck traders
To the pip, 100% in agreement. I may not agree with your method, but those levels make total sense. Of course a break over 168.38 takes it back up. It's checked most other parameters for at least a medium term reversal, but 166.86 still has to break to add more weight.

No, sorry, I take part of that back. I totally agree with your method -I just read it wrongly. (Not, of course that you would or should give a damn)
  • #9,839
  • Dec 4, 2013 10:02pm Dec 4, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} ez0770, I would give you a vouch if I could. Your posts are excellent and I enjoyed reading them. obhutta, good post as well and I agree with your analysis, but keep in mind, not everyone here speaks the elliot wave, A-B-C-, 1-2-3, language.
Smash, thank you for your kind words, I'm glad you appreciate my small contribution to the forum
  • #9,840
  • Dec 4, 2013 10:48pm Dec 4, 2013 10:48pm
NIKKEI dropped today.
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