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AUD/USD

  • #69,981
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:38am Nov 27, 2013 7:38am
Quoting Ssm
{image} No rocket science here. Failure to take back .9130 today means we are still heading down. With today positive data but yet bearish PA, we are deep down into bear territory.
Chart is very useful. But sometime I believe fundamentals more
  • #69,982
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:39am Nov 27, 2013 7:39am
Quoting Gwan
testing usd news shortly after this,
news has been ang gone, AUD should take a breather and go up. AAA higher interest rates, NO AUD QE adding notes to the system and bringing the value down. How could it drop lower?
  • #69,983
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:58am Nov 27, 2013 7:58am
Quoting surfbeach253
{quote} news has been ang gone, AUD should take a breather and go up. AAA higher interest rates, NO AUD QE adding notes to the system and bringing the value down. How could it drop lower?
You are thinking too much.
  • #69,984
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:03am Nov 27, 2013 8:03am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} You are thinking too much.
yeah you are right logic is out of place sometimes, giving me a headache, must be time to go to bed.
  • #69,985
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:12am Nov 27, 2013 8:12am
The pair is acting contradictory to it's typical news reaction. Irrational markets, figures. Apparently it's not the RBA intervention talk but the taper tantrum that's giving us this longer term fake out. I'd be stupefied if they actually tapered before the end of the year. As for support on the AUD, what's the reason it should go lower? Any fundamental reason? Note the RBA has threatened intervention in the past and hasn't done anything.

P.S. I'm trading longer term than most of you, not intraday.
  • #69,986
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:24am Nov 27, 2013 8:24am
Quoting TheTopBloke
The pair is acting contradictory to it's typical news reaction. Irrational markets, figures. Apparently it's not the RBA intervention talk but the taper tantrum that's giving us this longer term fake out. I'd be stupefied if they actually tapered before the end of the year. As for support on the AUD, what's the reason it should go lower? Any fundamental reason? Note the RBA has threatened intervention in the past and hasn't done anything. P.S. I'm trading longer term than most of you, not intraday.
Because RBA wants it lower?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,987
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:29am Nov 27, 2013 8:29am
I do surprise when people blindly buying aud/usd dips when it just a falling knife, when RBA want it low whole market pressing it down and still people here just aiming for a few pips correction when the main opportunity is south, dont really get it. I was reading here people were buying dips from 92 area hope they are happy with those buys. An interesting point is when they will give up buying dips and will start selling it will correct!
  • #69,988
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:31am Nov 27, 2013 8:31am
Ahh... do they? Do they really? There's no manufacturing base in Australia. They export resources. Why export resources at a discount? Wouldn't you want to sell your resources with a stronger AUD? And when you need new Catapillars from the USA, wouldn't you want to buy them with a stronger AUD? They don't want a weaker dollar. Just words to placate a very tiny minority of the country.
  • #69,989
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:33am Nov 27, 2013 8:33am
Quoting Ssm
{image} No rocket science here. Failure to take back .9130 today means we are still heading down. With today positive data but yet bearish PA, we are deep down into bear territory.
Just curious what area are you looking for to get out?
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #69,990
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:45am Nov 27, 2013 8:45am
Quoting TheTopBloke
Ahh... do they? Do they really? There's no manufacturing base in Australia. They export resources. Why export resources at a discount? Wouldn't you want to sell your resources with a stronger AUD? And when you need new Catapillars from the USA, wouldn't you want to buy them with a stronger AUD? They don't want a weaker dollar. Just words to placate a very tiny minority of the country.
You might want to ask Stevens himself this question.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,991
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:55am Nov 27, 2013 8:55am
Quoting leticus
{quote} pls pm me.
Sent you a PM as well.
Faith ends where worry begins, and worry ends where faith begins.
  • #69,992
  • Nov 27, 2013 9:08am Nov 27, 2013 9:08am
Quoting TheTopBloke
Ahh... do they? Do they really? There's no manufacturing base in Australia. They export resources. Why export resources at a discount? Wouldn't you want to sell your resources with a stronger AUD? And when you need new Catapillars from the USA, wouldn't you want to buy them with a stronger AUD? They don't want a weaker dollar. Just words to placate a very tiny minority of the country.
I think they sell ores in usd not aud..
Stronger usd brings them bigger profit..
  • #69,993
  • Nov 27, 2013 9:12am Nov 27, 2013 9:12am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} I think they sell ores in usd not aud.. Stronger usd brings them bigger profit..
Correct,
Sales can be a contract price and also spot price (the highest/ best price is spot sales price) all in USD
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #69,994
  • Nov 27, 2013 9:56am Nov 27, 2013 9:56am
Quoting TheTopBloke
Ahh... do they? Do they really? There's no manufacturing base in Australia. They export resources. Why export resources at a discount? Wouldn't you want to sell your resources with a stronger AUD? And when you need new Catapillars from the USA, wouldn't you want to buy them with a stronger AUD? They don't want a weaker dollar. Just words to placate a very tiny minority of the country.
who cares what resources they have, look what those guys who moves market want, no one cares what you think. I believe you think to much in terms of internal fundamental. Government do not want strong AUD market movers prefer it short. Anyway man try to buy dips when further rate cuts will come and tapering dont forget to keep buying dips below 90 and you may see breakeven in 2015
  • #69,995
  • Nov 27, 2013 10:00am Nov 27, 2013 10:00am
Interesting... But who says they have to sell it on market? Also, it brings up another good point, delivery dates and payment dates.
  • #69,996
  • Nov 27, 2013 10:03am Nov 27, 2013 10:03am
Bounce on 0.9070 is likely to provide some support for today, till tmr's aud's data.

0.9070 is one of the weekly r t s level.


confirmation will only be confirmed once previous support of 0.9140 is reclaimed back.

Yesterday's lo near 0.9090 will also provide a test if any support turns resistance.

Mid-term 0.9210 is main resistance.

previously 0.9269-80 provided 2-3 support bounce, any pull back likely to face some test there as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: R T S.png Size: 16 KB
  • #69,997
  • Nov 27, 2013 10:24am Nov 27, 2013 10:24am
I think that Aud has been to strong for a long while. Therefore, people just have this Aud long bias and its like a demon on your right shoulder telling you common dude it will continue rising. It is all about flexibility and here where majority neglect the main saying: "trend is your friend" so why wouldn't you just stay with it?
  • #69,998
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:18pm Nov 27, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{image}

You can draw several trendlines and horizontal support lines. Why did you choose this one?
  • #69,999
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:34pm Nov 27, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
The pair is acting contradictory to it's typical news reaction. Irrational markets, figures.
Ever stop to think maybe it's you that is thinking irrational? Remember, the market is never wrong. So if price is not going the way you expect, then it is you that is wrong.

Quoting TheTopBloke
Apparently it's not the RBA intervention talk but the taper tantrum that's giving us this longer term fake out. I'd be stupefied if they actually tapered before the end of the year. As for support on the AUD, what's the reason it should go lower? Any fundamental reason? Note the RBA has threatened intervention in the past and hasn't done anything. P.S. I'm trading longer term than most of you, not intraday.
A lot of "traders" get so caught up in news releases. Yes, news releases can sometimes be helpful, but they can also equally deter someone from making the right trade. I'm not saying you TheTopBloke - I'm only quoting your post to discuss the topic since you bring it up. The thing with news is the market reacts according to how the market perceives it. In many cases where the market seems to be taking the news irrationally, the market has already positioned itself for the news (or over compensated). So when the news gets released the reaction might be contrary to what one might expect since the market movers are making a correction to the over-compensation. That's just one example. There are so many different variables (different market participants and their objectives) that each instance is overall unique. There are correlations and similarities sometimes, but never the same exact combination of circumstances. The only thing that should remain equal is your mindset. As a trader you need to have a flexible mindset at all times.
  • #70,000
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:36pm Nov 27, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting tony95
{quote} You can draw several trendlines and horizontal support lines. Why did you choose this one?
It's the one that stands out the most for me. It's only speculation on my part.
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