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Somewhere to document my thoughts...

  • #101
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:47am Nov 26, 2013 4:47am
The key to profitability is survivability and consistency.
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  • #102
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:51am Nov 26, 2013 4:51am
Set up that I am currently in:
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  • #103
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:54am Nov 26, 2013 4:54am
Quoting shellsnail
Set up that I am currently in: {image}
What is trend? I think trend is just the dominant order flow. At each time frame, you can observe a historical move that dominates the other moves - that move is the current trend of that time frame or that particular snapshot of the order flow in the market, because most players/most orders in the market will have that slant until the top of the move gets taken out.

Price retraces a trend move simply because there are more unfilled orders above at different intervals. Hesitant counter-trend players come in and test the market at the new lows, pushing it up, scalping small profits before finally price hits a bulk of large orders and cascades down. This process repeats itself ad infinitum until small 1min trends turn into 5min trends, which turn into 15min,30min, 60min, and finally maybe even monthly trends...

A new trend can start anywhere anytime, because that's the nature of the market as new orders can come in at any moment. There is no price too high to buy, no price too low to sell. NO ONE, and I mean NO ONE can tell if a trend will persist or if it will be consumed by a larger trend/ larger orders on higher timeframe players. You simply have to watch price get there and then observe what happens..
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  • #104
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:02am Nov 26, 2013 5:02am
There is only one thing that differentiates trading from gambling in a casino, and that is traders can find an edge. And most of the time, trading with the trend is an edge because we can observe (although I am not sure how we can PROVE) that prices tend to persist in one direction for some duration of time, making predictable retracement moves.

Trading counter-trend can be shaped into an edge if you observe very strict small losses, and be very disciplined about entries and take very large profits on your winners.
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  • #105
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:04am Nov 26, 2013 5:04am
Quoting shellsnail
Set up that I am currently in: {image}
My day is done. Cheers.
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  • #106
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:07am Nov 26, 2013 5:07am
Quoting shellsnail
For those interested, there's a long set-up on GBP/USD - but if price does get there I wouldn't be trading it because I have hit my 20 pips {image}
Still think this long set-up is really good

taking it "in my mind" to see how it plays out (not actually trading it)

it just touched the entry.
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  • #107
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:12am Nov 26, 2013 5:12am
my general advice regarding trades that go into profit is: don't put them to break-even too early, good entries often get tested more than once before taking off. Whereas for trades that go sour immediately, you should be thinking of getting out as soon as possible at breakeven if possible.
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  • #108
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:14am Nov 26, 2013 5:14am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Still think this long set-up is really good taking it "in my mind" to see how it plays out (not actually trading it) it just touched the entry.
Well to those that took this, you are now up 10 pips. The rest is simply trade management. Good luck

(and sorry to all those who got stopped out of your longs because you placed your stop there. It was inevitable.)
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  • #109
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:18am Nov 26, 2013 5:18am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Well to those that took this, you are now up 10 pips. The rest is simply trade management. Good luck (and sorry to all those who got stopped out of your longs because you placed your stop there. It was inevitable.)
A reasonable target in my view will be 1.62. Cheers. (note, DOES NOT mean price will get there. No one can predict price. period. If anyone tells you they know price is going to X, they are bluffing).

got to go. enough screen staring for the day. best of luck, green pips to everyone!
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  • #110
  • Edited 5:46am Nov 26, 2013 5:28am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Well to those that took this, you are now up 10 pips. The rest is simply trade management. Good luck (and sorry to all those who got stopped out of your longs because you placed your stop there. It was inevitable.)
One last thing - with this development, that entry point is now a good place to exit BE, reverse and place a short be patient. Cheers.

if you are scared, don't trade. The market does not reward scared traders.

Caveat: When I look at a chart, I don't see price, all I see is where the orders are placed - price will naturally get to places where most orders are placed because that's the role of the market - to maximise utility of buyers and sellers by enabling trade. The market is NOT ZERO SUM. it is strictly positive sum because a stop loss order creates WELFARE GAIN for the trader who placed it. After all if you do not gain from the trade, then why put a PROMISE in the market to make that trade when price gets there??? The expected value of making the trade must > the expected value of NOT making it.

So next time you think the banks are stop-hunting you, hey the market is actually doing you a favour by maximising your welfare

One is a bad trader if one is unable to determine what is good for oneself and what is bad (or even if one can determine it, one is unable to act on it). There can be many reasons why this is the case, but ultimately it boils down to this.
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  • #111
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:06am Nov 26, 2013 6:06am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} One last thing - with this development, that entry point is now a good place to exit BE, reverse and place a short be patient. Cheers. if you are scared, don't trade. The market does not reward scared traders. Caveat: When I look at a chart, I don't see price, all I see is where the orders are placed - price will naturally get to places where most orders are placed because that's the role of the market - to maximise utility of buyers and sellers by enabling trade. The market is NOT ZERO SUM. it is strictly positive sum because a stop...
Once again if you followed that you are in 10 pips profit and the rest boils down to trade management.
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  • #112
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:10am Nov 26, 2013 6:10am
Readers here interested to discuss can articulate your thoughts here too.

I think the best way to learn something is to discuss and teach others about it so feel free to share you views.
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  • #113
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:07am Nov 26, 2013 9:07am
Follow the trend until something breaks

When market gives profit opportunities such as this, just take it and say thanks, don't go trade counter-trend and ruin it.
Attached Image
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  • #114
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:14pm Nov 26, 2013 3:14pm
To attempt to prove the hypothesis that analysis is nothing more than intellectual masturbation, here's an experiment that I propose.

Flip a coin, if head enter buy, if tails enter sell.

Once in the trade, if price moves 3 pips against you, set TP to breakeven immediately; else set TP to 20 pip. no SL
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  • #115
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:17pm Nov 26, 2013 3:17pm
First flip: heads, buy EUR/USD. TP: 20 pips.
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  • #116
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:04pm Nov 26, 2013 4:04pm
Ok the experiment sucks during asian hours. lol I might try it tmr.
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  • #117
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:06pm Nov 26, 2013 4:06pm
For asian traders:

ofcourse it's buyzone until it is broken trade with the trend is your best bet for now.
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  • #118
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:09pm Nov 26, 2013 4:09pm
For London traders:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: WATCHFORIT.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: personalfavourite.png Size: 60 KB
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  • #119
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:17pm Nov 26, 2013 4:17pm
If GBP/USD breaks that zone, it's going to see much higher - so trade with the trend until something breaks!

The top is always clear in the rear view mirror
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  • #120
  • Edited 4:32pm Nov 26, 2013 4:22pm | Edited 4:32pm
For those reading...I traded the skeleton/alpha version of this method on 1 min/5min/15min TF that I am using from a 150GBP live account and turned into into 2.5k in 1 week. Took about slightly less than 100 trades, made lots of mistakes and took huge losses because rules were still shaky then.

since then I have improved it tremendously to cater for every kind of scenario.

I think I have shared enough of it, not going to spill any more beans to the uninitiated. if you are truly interested, go and open up a chart and start working through all the scenarios yourself and you may discover something... Think out of the box. When you figure it out, you can come and ask me questions over PM or skype me at shellsnails and I may answer you if I am free. Will not be discussing it here. Cheers.

but ofcourse if you think I'm talking shit, then just ignore me and move on

P.S. NOT SELLING IT AS WELL BECAUSE IT IS MY EDGE SO DON"T BOTHER PM ME FOR IT, if you are really interested you need to figure it out by yourself.
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