Disliked{quote} Hi Al, Hem… I re-read my last posts, and they really don't make much sense… or they may do, but they are totally messy :S The thing is, my thought process is currently getting a sort of reflex. I do not overthink (anymore!) when screening for trade opportunities. So I basically totally forgot to mention it in my post… I'm afraid this is quite a long post. Seems I can't make myself clear and concise in the same time… Anyone just skip any part of it (or all of it), there is nothing else than my own thoughts… Here is what I look for: PA setup...Ignored
great post! I know it's hard to write something down in clear way.
I like your thinking. Your criteria for entering position are very similiar to mine.
Do you enter right at the bar break or do you give it some room? I put my orders 10% of bar's height away (e.g. we have BEOB with close at 1.4990 and high is 1.5090 then I'd put my order at 1.4980 and SL at 1.5100+Spread).
It was interesting to read how you handle trade, with three positions and then closing them at various levels and moving SL. Have you done any backtesting on this or do you have some real time testing behind you with evidence it works well??
I'm asking because I was experimenting with these strategies, I tried few of them:
1, Enter trade, go to BE at FTA let it run: Problem was that too often price will turn at FTA and hit entering bar's high/low so I was getting stopped at BE way too much.
2, Enter trade, take half of profit at FTA, reduce SL (not to BE as price tends to retest entry point), let the rest run: Problem was that taking half profit at FTA was not enough to cover all the losses. And if I got runner it was half runner as I have closed half of position at FTA.
3, Enter trade, but don't go to BE at FTA and let it run: Now I took full loss more often (but at least it forced me to be more picky). But also I got more runners. The problem was when to close the runner? I tried various things(opposite PA, fibonacci trailing, 2 bar stuff etc.) And couldn't make this works as it was too flexible.
I gave all of this LOT of thought and lot of time and lot of backtesting. I ended up with very simple strategy that proved to be profitable in my backtests:
1, Enter full position - partial closing didn't seem to work well over time in my backtests
2, Let the setup to play out - if it's good setup FTA will be broken, sooner or later(although you might spend few days in loss)
3, Take profit at 2R or nearest S/R(PPZ), BRN. (Forces me to have good chances with about 2:1 RRR but not totally fixed)
4, Don't be too benevolent, go to BE when price reaches 1R or nearest S/R(PPZ), BRN.
I was testing this strategy also with 3R TP and it turned out to be profitable but it keeped me in trades for months sometimes. (2R is usually 5 to 15 trading days, 1 to 5 weeks, My last trade short AUDUSD was 21 trading days).
This strategy is simple,doesn't allwo any space for overthink stuff or mismanage trades. However it requires patience as you don't do anything with trade until it reaches 1R and even after that you have not booked any profit.
I'd love to have strategy that would allow me to get something off the table sooner, let the rest run and keep risk at minimum. I've not find such a strategy that would prove itself during backtesting.
Therefore I'm very interested in your results. And wish you best luck. Hope you share some stats!
Cheers,
Michal
take care
