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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,921
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:15pm Nov 24, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting raitchev
Now that we've cleared the USD/SGD pin, what do you guys think about the NZD/USD one? On a bird-eye daily view, it looks like it has stalled on a major flip zone Looking closely, however, not a really awesome location, but still some space to run (0.8370ish - 1:1 R:R at least..) What gives me most confidence, though, is 4HR trend line. Although bearish, the trend line is confirmed by THREE pin bars. Dunno about you guys, but my fingers are so itchy for trading this setup
Hey Raitchev my view on it. Its a tough place to trade long.
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  • #128,922
  • Nov 24, 2013 3:25pm Nov 24, 2013 3:25pm
Hey guys, I just have a quick question on breakouts. Currently on the USD/CHF (H4) there is one in the progress.
My question is written in the chart below.
Thank you guys.
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Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly. - R. Kennedy
  • #128,923
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:36pm Nov 24, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting ChiLL 14
Hey guys, I just have a quick question on breakouts. Currently on the USD/CHF (H4) there is one in the progress. My question is written in the chart below. Thank you guys. {image}
Hey man, I'm not willing to stick my neck out to answer your question I'm afraid (I'm no expert), but what I will tell you is that not only would that trade sail right into a load of bar highs in an uptrend, but it's also heading straight for the 1.05 round number. Good luck if you go for it, but keep your finger on your mouse!
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,924
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:07pm Nov 24, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting ChiLL 14
Hey guys, I just have a quick question on breakouts. Currently on the USD/CHF (H4) there is one in the progress. My question is written in the chart below. Thank you guys. {image}
Hey Chill,
I would be careful with H4 chart. Take a look at the weekly and daily. There's a lot of resistance overhead and a daily pinbar formed on the daily chart.
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  • #128,925
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:20pm Nov 24, 2013 5:20pm
Back to the USD/SGD lol

I always like to contradict my self. To challenge my thought process and my ideas. Well i somehow ended up finding enough reasons to get into the USD/SGD pin... Small risk... just for the sake of confluence.

off:
150 + 365 ema
trendline
and BRN

Gotta love forex, ah? Million ways to both win and lose money.
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Twitter @raitchev
  • #128,926
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:21pm Nov 24, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting raitchev
Back to the USD/SGD lol I always like to contradict my self. To challenge my thought process and my ideas. Well i somehow ended up finding enough reasons to get into the USD/SGD pin... Small risk... just for the sake of confluence. off: 150 + 365 ema trendline an BRN Gotta love forex, ah? Million ways to both win and lose money. {image}
hey R

Just be careful on these


This bar is in a lot of traffic which means trouble is VERY close. Without a strong confluence bars like this ca be a big headache.

You are right a lot of ways to skin it

Mike
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  • #128,927
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:36pm Nov 24, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} hey R Just be careful on these This bar is in a lot of traffic which means trouble is VERY close. Without a strong confluence bars like this ca be a big headache. You are right a lot of ways to skin it Mike {image}
Yeah Mike i've notice the lack of space... in fact that was one of the reasons why I initially skipped this trade. But then I realised that there's too much confluence going on and (for me) it's worth taking the risk. Just 0.5%. I promise

Thank you for your opinion though.
Twitter @raitchev
  • #128,928
  • Nov 24, 2013 7:39pm Nov 24, 2013 7:39pm
I so wanted to trade the USDCHF pin as it is just so damn sexy! However I have decided against by asking myself if I was going to trade $10,000 would I take this and the answer is def no. So for all those who have taken it - rest assured it is now guaranteed to shoot off
  • #128,929
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:17pm Nov 24, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Ahh...Beauty that! g.
  • #128,930
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:25pm Nov 24, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting Neytiri
{image} Price breaks out of the consolidation box and hits the ppz. A buob fakeout bar is formed that has closed above brn 7.0. I think price might head straight back to the bar lows of the consolidation box. Neytiri
MTOR update
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  • #128,931
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:00pm Nov 24, 2013 10:00pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} All great entries. I can see most of these have hit their major trouble areas and bounced off of them.
Thank you Ghous. Your comments are much appreciated.

In the past, I sabotaged most of the winning trades by closing them early, moving the SL to BE etc. I backtested my edge with 640 trades and I found that simply waiting for 3R will give good results.

But in real time trading, it is hard to give back the profits. While typing this message, my USDJPY trade was hovering around the 3R target. My wife was telling me to close the trade with the available profit. So, I decided to take some profit but it hit the Target before that )
  • #128,932
  • Edited Nov 25, 2013 1:56am Nov 24, 2013 11:25pm | Edited Nov 25, 2013 1:56am
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Strong close above 6100 will also suffice.
  • #128,933
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:11am Nov 25, 2013 2:11am
hello guys! i need some help. this is gbpusd, today. it likes a triple top (strong resistance) and if in the end of day will be outside bar, may be go in short trade, i think. But i newbie, and i can mistake. red line - support, major pivot. Yellow line - minor pivot. Thats my thougts. But if will be BEOB and it close in yellow line, or its high price will be in yellow line what to do? do not trade? if yellow would be major, i definitely not trade, but so it minor in my mind, i in a fog. Of course, in any case the simplest solution- not trade :-), but in this case may be some trade? Thanks.
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  • #128,934
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:34am Nov 25, 2013 3:34am
Quoting dan89
{quote} Ooops ...maybe not ! Decent patterns are so reliable they work even when you dont want them to !!! Before: {image} After: {image} Take care all Dan
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Nooooo !!

If I dont take any trades this month and I dont loose any money but dont gain any ....does it still count as a profitbale month

Mike, Advice please Im sooo close to 3 consecutive profitable months !!

Take care all
Dan
  • #128,935
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:54am Nov 25, 2013 3:54am
Quoting dvimix
hello guys! i need some help. this is gbpusd, today. it likes a triple top (strong resistance) and if in the end of day will be outside bar, may be go in short trade, i think. But i newbie, and i can mistake. red line - support, major pivot. Yellow line - minor pivot. Thats my thougts. But if will be BEOB and it close in yellow line, or its high price will be in yellow line what to do? do not trade? if yellow would be major, i definitely not trade, but so it minor in my mind, i in a fog. Of course, in any case the simplest solution- not trade :-),...
I am looking at this setup too. Triple top and divergence. I'd love to see a pin bar that would protrude 1.6255 level and closed below it.
If we get a BEOB today I would consider trade only if that BEOB would be quite big with strong close (near day low) because friday's bar is quite small so it's not that hard to engulf it. But if BEOB is too big then we will have 1.6000 area just below and that would worry me more than your yellow line.
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  • #128,936
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:40am Nov 25, 2013 4:40am
Quoting raitchev
Now that we've cleared the USD/SGD pin, what do you guys think about the NZD/USD one? On a bird-eye daily view, it looks like it has stalled on a major flip zone {image} Looking closely, however, not a really awesome location, but still some space to run (0.8370ish - 1:1 R:R at least..) {image} What gives me most confidence, though, is 4HR trend line. Although bearish, the trend line is confirmed by THREE pin bars. {image} Dunno about you guys, but my fingers are so itchy for trading this setup
I don't know what are your criteria but according to my criteria it's no pin bar at all. It has WEAK close, pretty much in half of the bar an also below open. If it closed near the top it would be a different story... but this is indecision candlestick...
  • #128,937
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:52am Nov 25, 2013 4:52am
Quoting raitchev
{quote} Yeah Mike i've notice the lack of space... in fact that was one of the reasons why I initially skipped this trade. But then I realised that there's too much confluence going on and (for me) it's worth taking the risk. Just 0.5%. I promise Thank you for your opinion though.
Confluence is a big part of the game. But still..."A PART" of the game.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,938
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:05am Nov 25, 2013 5:05am
Quoting whynotnaveen
{quote} Thank you Ghous. Your comments are much appreciated. In the past, I sabotaged most of the winning trades by closing them early, moving the SL to BE etc. I backtested my edge with 640 trades and I found that simply waiting for 3R will give good results. But in real time trading, it is hard to give back the profits. While typing this message, my USDJPY trade was hovering around the 3R target. My wife was telling me to close the trade with the available profit. So, I decided to take some profit but it hit the Target before that )
A set in stone take profit target is always going to hurt. Yes over 640 trades you might eventually see it return a positive gain but think about all the horribly mismanaged trades in between where you knew exactly what price was expected to do and couldn't react accordingly because you were waiting for 3R?

One of the points that go in favor of being able to understand price action is the abilty to be flexible and dynamic with your trade management like a lever pivoted about a strong bolt that you can move around and adjust the risk as per the situation and the quality of the setup.

A totally stiff trade management strategy at best calls for a very long shot but in real time you've got to be able to live with the losses that come by and its going to get hard anyway if you're taking the hits despite seeing them coming from a distance.

The best thing to do for the most part is to let the trade play out and allow yourself the freedom to react based on the unfolding information. Of course I too use set take profit levels occasionally but then they are always centered about PPZs or round numbers or some other logical area on the chart. NEVER based on a certain "R" or account percentage or other external factors.

Every trade you take needs to be dealt with based on its true merits as opposed to some other means.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,939
  • Nov 25, 2013 6:32am Nov 25, 2013 6:32am
Quoting albus999
{quote} much clearer P, thank you. Al
Hi Al,

Hem… I re-read my last posts, and they really don't make much sense… or they may do, but they are totally messy :S

The thing is, my thought process is currently getting a sort of reflex. I do not overthink (anymore!) when screening for trade opportunities.
So I basically totally forgot to mention it in my post…

I'm afraid this is quite a long post. Seems I can't make myself clear and concise in the same time…
Anyone just skip any part of it (or all of it), there is nothing else than my own thoughts…

Here is what I look for:
PA setup at a swing point and RN/PPZ is a minimum. An obvious setup is the best.
Then I add at least one of the following: TL, 50% or 61% retracement, BB extreme, MACD or RSI divergence, double/triple top or bottom, 150EMA, 365EMA
BB extreme and divergence are my favorites so far

Regarding money management: I will risk 1.5% equity on each trade, split in 3 positions of 0.5%. Entry is always at the break of the PA setup.
SL is located at the other end of the setup, except when there is a very very clear S/R supported by a RN within the setup: the SL will be few pips above / below this "internal PPZ".
TP1 is at the FTA, TP2 at the second major trouble area, TP3 is open. I keep the 3rd position open just to try and catch runners: the few trades that don't look back.
I always reduce my risk at FTA: SL is moved either at BE or by the internal PPZ.
I then try to consider momentum. Still working on that though.
The idea is that the faster price moves, the looser the SL will be. And vice versa: if price moves slowly, I'll tend to keep the SL tight, since I interpret the slow movement as a lack of bullish or bearish pressure.
As far as I understand them, PA setups tend to suggest a "congestion", a pressure between two opposite forces, with one of them taking control over the other. If price doesn't burst out of the PA setup, then it may suggest that the pressure is not as strong as anticipated, and thus that the opposite pressure may regain control… Don't know if I make myself clear

Anyway:
Option 1: The FTA is hit, my risk is reduced by 30-100%. Then price may reach the 2nd major trouble area and hit my 2nd TP, or may revert to me, in which case my loss will be reduced (less than 1% equity).
Then comes the management of the 3rd position. Here, it is very very situation dependent. I don't know before the fact which trade will be a 2R, 5R, 150R (…). So my only option is to give the 3rd position enough room for the trade to develop, without risking any money. What I do then is trailing the SL behind W1 PPZ.
Option 2, worst case scenario: price doesn't hit the FTA, I'm in drawdown on the 3 positions I entered. Well, first, it's "only" 1.5% of my equity. Second, I will assess the fact that I may have missed bar highs/ low or RN that may affect price movement. Third, I will very attentively monitor price reaction at anything that could act as a S/R within the PA setup. If price keeps going through these, I will remember Ryan's cute words: "KILL THE DAMN THING" and act accordingly

Three more thoughts:
1. I did not mention SPACE, yet I won't contradict Mike, this is very important to me. I will not enter a trade if the FTA is too close. By too close I mean less than 50-75% of the SL. If my SL is 100pips, I will not enter a trade which FTA is closer than 50-75 pips.
2. Which leads me to the second thing I did't mention: trending Vs ranging. I don't really know what to do with this information. Price may be ranging, but if the FTA is further than 75% of my SL, why not taking the risk?
and 3: I do consider RR. or sort of. The FTA being at 50%+ of my SL, my 1st RR is 0.5R (on one third of the trade, exact, but since I reduce my risk at this time, I do consider it close to 0.5R). The 2nd TP is generally within the 1R range. Thus, at this time, I'm 1.5R black. I have totally secured my risk. The 3rd position may or may not run, it's up to the big players

looong lengthy post, damn me and my wired brain

take care
Slow & steady
  • #128,940
  • Nov 25, 2013 7:17am Nov 25, 2013 7:17am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Hi Al, Hem… I re-read my last posts, and they really don't make much sense… or they may do, but they are totally messy :S The thing is, my thought process is currently getting a sort of reflex. I do not overthink (anymore!) when screening for trade opportunities. ...
Hey man, I think that's a great post! Makes perfect sense to me, anyway. I think if you stick to it you can't go too wrong. The only thing I'm not too sure about is your RR thing. I'm not really into that (I don't mean I'd risk 100 pips to gain 10), but I don't see any reason not to go for a trade that's going to net you 50-75 pips just because it doesn't meet an arbitrary stop criteria. But it's still food for thought.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
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