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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,561
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:17pm Nov 21, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} I dont think so if we look at nikkei. she will make double top and then down to retrace 14750 (next bottom) before going further upward.... {image}
Looking at it from a Yen perspective, UJ is just on (or within about 20~30 pips) of a very long term channel top that stopped it up at 103. If that channel top holds, then UJ goes down, at least into a much larger triangle to the 97 area. If the TL breaks up, that is the same as GJ breaking over 164.2.
  • #9,562
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:22pm Nov 21, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting veer2010
@giveachance, I do not understand why you mentioned that BOJ will intervene to strengthen Yen? We have already seen BOJ intervening when usd/jpy was trading at 75 level last in 2012/2011. That is because they thought the currency was too strong at that time and it was not helping the economy. But, scenario now is different. The yen is not strong and not weak too.. If you see the fall from 250, we still have room to go to 170. So, I don't think they will intervene to weaken the yen, i see no point. Anyway, i am short this pair gbp/jpy at 162 level...

every country imports and exports. Japans import bill will rise if their currency weakens. I hope you understand this equation
  • #9,563
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:24pm Nov 21, 2013 8:24pm
If you look at that UJ channel on a monthly chart, you'll see that the last 3 interventions happened when UJ fell below the channel and all they were doing was to push it back in.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpymonthly.png Size: 49 KB
  • #9,564
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:29pm Nov 21, 2013 8:29pm
Nikkei a classic example of a bubble.
  • #9,565
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:30pm Nov 21, 2013 8:30pm
yes understand the import & export stuff but the thing is 117 was too strong and hence was impacting export and 180-200 will be too weak which will impact imports.. so there is room for this bullish move to go another 1000 pips.. not sure but if i see this pair holding up so well, not sure what can bring it down to 160 level.. not gonna be a happy Friday guys..at least for me i think...
  • #9,566
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:33pm Nov 21, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} every country imports and exports. Japans import bill will rise if their currency weakens. I hope you understand this equation
especially the coals from my country.
  • #9,567
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:37pm Nov 21, 2013 8:37pm
The only "the" thing which I can think of bringing this pair down now is "IF" japan starts their nuclear reactor which was damaged due to tsunami. Since they use plenty of energy and all that coming from Oil now, it is damaging the currency to some extent. If they start this nuclear reactor, you will see yen jumping and jerking..lol
  • #9,568
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:45pm Nov 21, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting veer2010
yes understand the import & export stuff but the thing is 117 was too strong and hence was impacting export and 180-200 will be too weak which will impact imports.. so there is room for this bullish move to go another 1000 pips.. not sure but if i see this pair holding up so well, not sure what can bring it down to 160 level.. not gonna be a happy Friday guys..at least for me i think...


I know you're not alone, but the only thing anyone can do now is watch and wait. It will either start to reject from here and drop below 163, or it will climb over 164.
  • #9,569
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:19pm Nov 21, 2013 9:19pm
Quoting veer2010
@giveachance, I do not understand why you mentioned that BOJ will intervene to strengthen Yen? We have already seen BOJ intervening when usd/jpy was trading at 75 level last in 2012/2011. That is because they thought the currency was too strong at that time and it was not helping the economy. But, scenario now is different. The yen is not strong and not weak too.. If you see the fall from 250, we still have room to go to 170. So, I don't think they will intervene to weaken the yen, i see no point. Anyway, i am short this pair gbp/jpy at 162 level...
Yessir, but Abe's 3 part plan had the third section finnally "ripe"....plus the historical direction during November....
  • #9,570
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:32pm Nov 21, 2013 9:32pm
One final comment - it could still technically run upwards to about 165. As long as it then rejects and doesn't close (daily) above 164...
  • #9,571
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:50pm Nov 21, 2013 9:50pm
As per this chart, it is showing some pattern.. it consolidated before 200+ pips leap and again consolidated and then again 200+ leap and now it is in the consolidating phase.. so, guys whats next? another 200 pips??? are we gonna see 166???

the consolidation is so strong that no major banks are selling this pair...
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.JPG Size: 93 KB
  • #9,572
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:34pm Nov 21, 2013 11:34pm
Heyo... I definitely cut my longs in geppy and GBP/AUD way too early. I don't mind though... I'm usually in too late out out too early. Fine with me

Waiting for a retrace now. Who knows how much we'll get, but I'd hope at least to the low 163s. I'll obviously be looking to initiate fresh longs, but it may not happen until next week.

Like I said... patience is the game. If I have to wait a couple days to get a position on and twice as many for it to come to fruition, that's ok with me.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #9,573
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:47pm Nov 21, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting veer2010
As per this chart, it is showing some pattern.. it consolidated before 200+ pips leap and again consolidated and then again 200+ leap and now it is in the consolidating phase.. so, guys whats next? another 200 pips??? are we gonna see 166??? the consolidation is so strong that no major banks are selling this pair... {image}
nikkei down and I see divergence on H1 and H4.
  • #9,574
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:51pm Nov 21, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} nikkei down and I see divergence on H1 and H4.
300-500 pips his bear voucher.
  • #9,575
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:43am Nov 22, 2013 12:43am
Quoting Geppy
Does anyone else think that GBP/USD is potentially over valued? I'm looking at the weekly chart, and it doesn't look very strong... may consider a very long-term position.

if its for the overvalued side trade, yes technically should be the most complex and time consuming travel.
btw, did you use technical or just use funda like bobgnarly?. he is good guessing for few weeks wake and see 163.
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  • #9,576
  • Nov 22, 2013 1:42am Nov 22, 2013 1:42am
Hello,
GBPJPY is getting more and more of my attention, very dynamic pair, many small TPs since last wee.
Third week hitting R2, its a friday, couldn't resist, small short at 163.5X, target previous high
  • #9,577
  • Nov 22, 2013 2:48am Nov 22, 2013 2:48am
Attached Image
  • #9,578
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:16am Nov 22, 2013 4:16am
The price is back to 164 level now.. There is an old saying in the market place.. "if it doesn't go down then it is going up!"
It seems that gbp/jpy is not going down at all... I think many retailers are short on this pair and hence the reason..
  • #9,579
  • Nov 22, 2013 4:49am Nov 22, 2013 4:49am
Quoting veer2010
The price is back to 164 level now.. There is an old saying in the market place.. "if it doesn't go down then it is going up!" It seems that gbp/jpy is not going down at all... I think many retailers are short on this pair and hence the reason..
It has nothing to do with retailers. It's simply trying to complete its final move. Maybe it will get up, but so far its failing. If it gets the idea that it's failed, it drops.
  • #9,580
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:04am Nov 22, 2013 5:04am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It has nothing to do with retailers. It's simply trying to complete its final move. Maybe it will get up, but so far its failing. If it gets the idea that it's failed, it drops.
164. seems strong resistance.
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