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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,861
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:01am Nov 21, 2013 10:01am
Quoting SeanyTsunami
I ended up taking the Eur/Jpy on a retrace with a reduced risk. Looks like the eur rallied over night. Oh well.
It was really interesting to watch the FOMC thrust to the downside and I was actually hoping for a decent close below the RN and PPZ. The weaker close on the bar itself made me pass. Had we broken hard to the downside today, the low of the BEOB and the RN could well have acted as resistance (in case of a pull back) and allowed for some tight yet logical trade management for a short setup executed under the 134 RN. but then we never really even bothered to test that region a second time.

Its always recommended that regardless of the point of entry you should wait for the PA bar to break as a necessary condition to validate the PA setup specially when its running straight into a major trouble area.

All we've really done is test a RN PPZ and bounce off of it. The test itself occured off a PA bar but then that's why we aren't just after "A PA bar anywhere on the chart" but prefer to line up all the relevant factors to make out if the order flow represented in the PA bar is meritorious enough.

Here too, only a hard break of the BEOB could have validated a short trade IMO. An entry anywhere before that is flirting with danger because we're headed straight for a major PPZ that price has already shown signs of holding up at (via a weak close on the BEOB itself)

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,862
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:03am Nov 21, 2013 10:03am
Valid point Ghous. Thank-you.
  • #128,863
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:06am Nov 21, 2013 10:06am
The real trade I should have taken was a breakout of 1 hour compression on the Usd/Jpy. But that was contradictory of my bias towards Eur/Jpy.
Still have a lot to learn, but I am getting there.
  • #128,864
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:37am Nov 21, 2013 10:37am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Yup it does take some time for the mind to look beyond emotions and identify the true merit behind a setup every time. About half a decade of being at it I can sometimes end up missing out important information to a setup myself. It's more likely to happen for me following a streak of winners or losers. The occasional mistake will always be there, the trick is to use the resulting hit to quickly re-learn the lesson for a lasting period and then moving forward instead of living with it. Easier said then done but time is a great teacher. ...
I find a check list helps. Thats why trading the dailies is good because you have time to work through a checklist. Eventually such habits become second nature.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #128,865
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:41am Nov 21, 2013 10:41am
I know some took the BEOB on eurjpy (myself included) and were disappointed to have it relentlessly re-engulf the entire bar. Ghous' words of wisdom above are much appreciated. Rather than sulk about such things I perform a post mortem and today I found something interesting I want to share.

Although there was a BEOB it's close was not the best (Ghous alluded to this). On the H4 chart check out the H4 pinbar that really highlights the weak close of the Daily BEOB. After the pinbar price never even hinted at breaking the bottom of the BEOB. Then every bar after that was bullish with nearly every one making higher highs and higher lows. There was one IB that closed near the high of the previous bar. So in hind-sight there was little reason to take this trade. But if you did then perhaps this PA on the H4 chart could have gotten you out earlier
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Here is EU which I am still in. I'll let you make your own analysis except that the H4 pinbar is the only bar that broke the bottom of the BEOB by at least 10-15 pips triggering my trade. However the pinbar itself may have been a reason to exit. Oh well I'm in this one for now.
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There were some other pairs with similar setups and I'm going to check them out to see how the PA looked on the H4 chart.
  • #128,866
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:46am Nov 21, 2013 10:46am
Quoting ghous
{quote} It was really interesting to watch the FOMC thrust to the downside and I was actually hoping for a decent close below the RN and PPZ. The weaker close on the bar itself made me pass. Had we broken hard to the downside today, the low of the BEOB and the RN could well have acted as resistance (in case of a pull back) and allowed for some tight yet logical trade management for a short setup executed under the 134 RN. but then we never really even bothered to test that region a second time. Its always recommended that regardless of the point...
Hi Ghous,

you confirm it's the same analysis with CHFJPY (very close pair by the way even if the RN is different)?

Many thanks for your explanation and time

aly365
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  • #128,867
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:50am Nov 21, 2013 10:50am
Here's AUDUSD. Check out the PA after the BEOEB. The H4 bar after the daily BEOEB closed pretty strong. The low of the Daily BEOEB would have served well as a SL or somewhere just above. However the 0.9300 was a pretty good area of support and I thought it would hold and this is what kept me out of the trade. But again PA on the H4 after a good PA on the daily chart seems to something to pay attention to.
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  • #128,868
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:06am Nov 21, 2013 11:06am
Quoting aly365
{quote} Hi Ghous, you confirm it's the same analysis with CHFJPY (very close pair by the way even if the RN is different)? Many thanks for your explanation and time aly365 {image}
Yup its the same story on both pairs.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,869
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:43am Nov 21, 2013 11:43am
Did anyone take this nice BUOB breakout on GBPNZD? I wanted to enter on a retrace to the green line but price continued on its way up and my order was left behind...
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  • #128,870
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:46am Nov 21, 2013 11:46am
I see you doberman

g
I believe . . .
  • #128,871
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:19pm Nov 21, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting dan89
{quote} Price is really struggling to move anyway, I like my breakouts to take off ! Have a strong feeling price is likely to drop down back into the pattern {image} Take care Dan
Ooops ...maybe not !

Decent patterns are so reliable they work even when you dont want them to !!!

Before:

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After:

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Take care all

Dan
  • #128,872
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:53pm Nov 21, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting Winston Reed
I know some took the BEOB on eurjpy (myself included) and were disappointed to have it relentlessly re-engulf the entire bar. Ghous' words of wisdom above are much appreciated. Rather than sulk about such things I perform a post mortem and today I found something interesting I want to share. Although there was a BEOB it's close was not the best (Ghous alluded to this). On the H4 chart check out the H4 pinbar that really highlights the weak close of the Daily BEOB. After the pinbar price never even hinted at breaking the bottom of the BEOB. Then...
As I mentioned before, I put order for both EURUSD and EURJPY. None of them triggered. I have cancelled EURJPY order. EURUSD order still in place. My entry is set to 1.3395

Quoting Winston Reed
Here's AUDUSD. Check out the PA after the BEOEB. The H4 bar after the daily BEOEB closed pretty strong. The low of the Daily BEOEB would have served well as a SL or somewhere just above. However the 0.9300 was a pretty good area of support and I thought it would hold and this is what kept me out of the trade. But again PA on the H4 after a good PA on the daily chart seems to something to pay attention to. {image}
I am still in my AUDUSD trade from 24th of October. My target was 0.9222 but I moved it lower to 0.9120 as price seems to be really falling of the roof. I have obviously also moved my SL too(to 0.9350).
Depending on price movement I might move my SL and TP lower again and trail it all the way down to 0.9000 area.

Or maybe price will jump up and I will regret of not closing the trade at 0.9222... will see.. it just looks to me that push down is very strong...
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  • #128,873
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:54pm Nov 21, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting SeanyTsunami
I ended up taking the Eur/Jpy on a retrace with a reduced risk. Looks like the eur rallied over night. Oh well.
Same story. Entered at 134.90 and was trapped. Lots of loosing last month :-(
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #128,874
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:02pm Nov 21, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting michal7
{quote} As I mentioned before, I put order for both EURUSD and EURJPY. None of them triggered. I have cancelled EURJPY order. EURUSD order still in place. My entry is set to 1.3395 {quote} I am still in my AUDUSD trade from 24th of October. My target was 0.9222 but I moved it lower to 0.9120 as price seems to be really falling of the roof. I have obviously also moved my SL too(to 0.9350). Depending on price movement I might move my SL and TP lower again and trail it all the way down to 0.9000 area. Or maybe price will jump up and I will regret of...

Hi michal7,

at a first sight i would have gone short but i took a better look and i found a reason not to enter the trade and that is the trouble area i marked.


Maybe i'm wrong and you right but i prefer to stay out of the market.

Cheers,
Aioico
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  • #128,875
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:14pm Nov 21, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting aioico
{quote} Hi michal7, at a first sight i would have gone short but i took a better look and i found a reason not to enter the trade and that is the trouble area i marked. Maybe i'm wrong and you right but i prefer to stay out of the market. Cheers, Aioico {image}
Hi Aioico,
I'm aware of that level. However in my eyes that level is invalidated by price action (candlesticks) marked by red arrows in my chart. Level that I consider to be trouble area is marked in purple. If this trade triggers I will manage it tightly. I set order because such a nice BEOB at BRN which is also retest after break of BRN is strong sell signal according ty my backtests.

But that just view of apprentice...
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  • #128,876
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:18pm Nov 21, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting michal7
{quote} Hi Aioico, I'm aware of that level. However in my eyes that level is invalidated by price action (candlesticks) marked by red arrows in my chart. Level that I consider to be trouble area is marked in purple. If this trade triggers I will manage it tightly. I set order because such a nice BEOB at BRN which is also retest after break of BRN is strong sell signal according ty my backtests. But that just view of apprentice... {image}
Great explanation...anyway at this stage i couldn't have done a thought like yours , i'm still thinking as a beginner approaching this bussiness.

Cheers
  • #128,877
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:21pm Nov 21, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting Winston Reed
I know some took the BEOB on eurjpy (myself included) and were disappointed to have it relentlessly re-engulf the entire bar. Ghous' words of wisdom above are much appreciated. Rather than sulk about such things I perform a post mortem and today I found something interesting I want to share. Although there was a BEOB it's close was not the best (Ghous alluded to this). On the H4 chart check out the H4 pinbar that really highlights the weak close of the Daily BEOB. After the pinbar price never even hinted at breaking the bottom of the BEOB. Then...

Good post, yes that was a point I was asking earlier...about drilling down to the lower time frame if in doubt about the strength a position based on the daily chart (or weekly)...this is a perfect example of the warning the 4 hour was giving us to really question our position....can't tell you how many times I have made this error (or should I call it another frigging learning experience lol) .
  • #128,878
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:09pm Nov 21, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting ghous
{quote}Its always recommended that regardless of the point of entry you should wait for the PA bar to break as a necessary condition to validate the PA setup specially when its running straight into a major trouble area. ) {image} g.
Hi G, are you saying that even for a retractment entry we should wait for the high/low to be broken first before it retracts and we enter?
  • #128,879
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:27pm Nov 21, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting dan89
{quote} Ooops ...maybe not ! Decent patterns are so reliable they work even when you dont want them to !!! Before: {image} After: {image} Take care all Dan

My USDJPY trade is going well but lost in EURJPY. When you take two JPY trades in opposite direction, do you consider correlation?
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  • #128,880
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:31pm Nov 21, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting andyhardwick
{quote} Hi G, are you saying that even for a retractment entry we should wait for the high/low to be broken first before it retracts and we enter?
Hey Andy,

Yes that has always been a necessary condition for trading PA the traditional james16 way. Does it mean you cant improvise? No of course not. You could experiment with all kinds of entry points and see what works for you. In the time when was taking PA bars primarily I cant even count the number of times waiting for the break saved the day for me. All the seniors have always emphasized waiting for the break. You'll notice Mike always waits for the bar to break too.

g
I believe . . .
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