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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #861
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:56pm Nov 20, 2013 11:56pm
To see why this is the case, suppose that in your first six draws, you draw all five nickels, and then a quarter. So http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/4/a...0e5193b2b5.png. If we know not just http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/9/8...dc7c4c603f.png, but the earlier values as well, then we can determine which coins have been drawn, and we know that the next coin will not be a nickel, so we can determine that http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/7/0...d51e83a33b.png with probability 1. But if we do not know the earlier values, then based only on the value http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/9/8...dc7c4c603f.png we might guess that we had drawn four dimes and two nickels, in which case it would certainly be possible to draw another nickel next. Thus, our guesses about http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/f/d...18c36fa3ca.png are impacted by our knowledge of values prior to http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/9/8...dc7c4c603f.png.

So do you REALLY want to consider all that in your trading ??

I don't.

silly me
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #862
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:16am Nov 21, 2013 12:16am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Ok, you win. With that, I am done for now. The trading has dried up and no more pips are expected. Plenty aud action earlier, though. Night, night and sweet dreams. Hope you all dream of business instead of casino.
I can not believe all these forex noobs are not bowing down kissing your feet for the knowledge you have bestowed upon them!
No seriously, I have read all your post.. you make no sense whatsoever! I mean seriously! 44 Pages and not a single coherent statement!! The oddest thing to me is that you were able to engage some very intelligent traders for so very long???
  • #863
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:32am Nov 21, 2013 12:32am
If the process is truly Markovian, then the idea of support and resistance lines or areas would be truly useless. Yet this behavior has been observed again and again in the market. One can predict with an accuracy greater than random chance by observing price behavior, whether or not, a particular price movement will penetrate , or whether it will bounce off such a line (I prefer area).

If you insist on using a fixed stop loss at least find one of these areas to hide it behind. By my observation, most people who do so, place it too close to the line.
--There a soft bounce takes it out and goes the other way.

Another thing to avoid is to trade a larger lot size than you would be comfortable with not using a stop loss.
--Those who do so, instead of finding a crippling floating debt, find a crippling loss of principle.

Again, if you see the price action is such that it is heading screaming madly toward your stop loss, cut your losses first!

In chaos theory there are such things as strange attractors.
remember the motto

A margin call is a terrible thing.
  • #864
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:03am Nov 21, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Rap Skallion
One can predict with an accuracy greater than random chance by observing price behavior, whether or not, a particular price movement will penetrate , or whether it will bounce off such a line (I prefer area). If you insist on using a fixed stop loss at least find one of these areas to hide it behind. By my observation, most people who do so, place it too close to the line. --There a soft bounce takes it out and goes the other way. Another thing to avoid is to trade a larger lot size than you would be comfortable with not using a stop loss. --Those...
OK...... If I'm not mistaken you're one who trades for 9 or 10 pips (TP). In fact, I believe I read
a post (yours) that said you adjusted your TP from 9 pips to 10 pips. Fine...... I respect that but
at the same time find it laughable.
I'm of the opinion that a 1 pip adjustment in TP is like a fart in the wind. It feels good for half a second
but really means nothing.

Regardless...... IF you do trade for 10 TP and you're here on this thread regarding no SL...... I'm curious
as to how long (many pips) you would let a trade go against you ?? Would you let it ride for -500 pips and
then close??
If so..... then you DO have a stop.
Or would you simply let it go until you have no account left?

Maybe (as the song says) what we have here is a failure to communicate.

???
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #865
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:05am Nov 21, 2013 1:05am
Fx Trading involves knowing how 2 manage ur Risk.... Trading without stops involves increasing ur Risk
  • #866
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:11am Nov 21, 2013 1:11am
Quoting Slim Buffett
Maybe (as the song says) what we have here is a failure to communicate. ???
It's from Cool Hand Luke. It feels wrong to associate the phrase with a song which surely took it from CHL.

Oh, and it looks like Samer's martingaling is getting the best of him. -8.7% just for today.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #867
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:38am Nov 21, 2013 1:38am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} It's from Cool Hand Luke.
Opening lyrics for G&R's "Civil War"

Cheers

Inserted Video
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #868
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:46am Nov 21, 2013 1:46am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Opening lyrics for G&R's "Civil War" Cheers http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1fHxPY3TJo
which is exactly taken from
Inserted Video
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #869
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:51am Nov 21, 2013 1:51am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} which is exactly taken from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnO9Jyz82Ps

Cool !!

When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #870
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:19am Nov 21, 2013 2:19am
Oh yea this is a controversial topic....

I do trade most of the time now with out stop loss, I say most of the time cause I also trade with stop loss with some trade, and I must say it is going pretty well, I am not a cowboy trader as I am very conservative the my cash and don't like let it go... oh no!
The reason I have started to trade with out SL is a money management thing, I had enough getting wiped out by only a few pips losing 30 to 60 or 80 pips to see the trade then reversing and going in my initial direction scoring 150 / 200 pips+, yes I can hear some saying put a wider SL, well I did but still the few pips knock off happen month after month my account was getting smaller as well as my self-worth I blew 45K out 75K account buy this time I was very scared to pull the trigger and every time I was doing it was wrong setup my mind was foggy and I was not felling good with myself.
I reacted then and started trading without SL , thinking what go up must come down and vice versa It did work and that rebuild my account but not with out scary moment I got nailed a few times in 300 pips loosing trade but they eventually came back as market do go up and down, You only loss or make money when you close the trade in FX this is not option trading no roll over here just wait. I am more like a swing trader trading PA, But that NO SL experience opened my eyes to long term trading style so it has been a plus for me, and I am much more relaxed trading this way now, I understand that is not for every one but it work for me, Just sharing my experience and I don't really care if others disagree.
Trading this way require an certain approach first a cashed up account is needed to cover potential loss, The trade entered have to be carefully looked at (I don't enter trade just because it is a good signal) The fundamental must be in accord with the bias. I also have a back up account in case the free margin get to low so I can transfer money to the trading account before a margin call, dont wait the margin call cause the money transfer take about 24 to 48 hours and you may find that if the margin is low interestingly it may take more time for some broker to execute the transfer.
I only trade without SL to start the trade and when in profit I BE trail stop or SL to lock in profit.
  • #871
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:11am Nov 21, 2013 3:11am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
I am glad to have exited my aud/usd short. I am long biased.
Hows that bias now hotshot? Your 'business' plan needs some adjustment because AU is now some 60 pips lower that when you exited and took on your long bias,

Having a long bias in such a strong short market.....and you think that you can trade?......ROFL
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #872
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:25am Nov 21, 2013 3:25am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} It's from Cool Hand Luke. It feels wrong to associate the phrase with a song which surely took it from CHL.
That was just before the sheriff shot him....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #873
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:32am Nov 21, 2013 3:32am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} That was just before the sheriff shot him....
Nuh-uh. Listen to the track, then the clip I posted, and then find the ending clip. The sample is not from the end of the movie. My clip is correct, and precedes your suggestion and is the genesis of the phrase
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #874
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:47am Nov 21, 2013 3:47am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Hows that bias now hotshot? Your 'business' plan needs some adjustment because AU is now some 60 pips lower that when you exited and took on your long bias, Having a long bias in such a strong short market.....and you think that you can trade?......ROFL

don't be bias ...it is a one kind of disease...illusion.... delusion.....
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #875
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:03am Nov 21, 2013 4:03am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Nuh-uh. Listen to the track, then the clip I posted, and then find the ending clip. The sample is not from the end of the movie. My clip is correct, and precedes your suggestion and is the genesis of the phrase
Sorry, I was relying on my memory, not always a good idea. I remember the sheriff using the phase 'what we have is a failure to communicate' at least once. Then when CHL is holed up somewhere surrounded by armed police who are beseeching him to come out, he responded with the phrase, and was shot a minute or two later. ...but I'm probably wrong again, and spoiling the film for those who haven't seen it.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #876
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:13am Nov 21, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Sorry, I was relying on my memory, not always a good idea. I remember the sheriff using the phase 'what we have is a failure to communicate' at least once. Then when CHL is holed up somewhere surrounded by armed police who are beseeching him to come out, he responded with the phrase, and was shot a minute or two later. ...but I'm probably wrong again, and spoiling the film for those who haven't seen it.
That about sums it up correctly, apart from the other bits and pieces in the middle of the movie.

On another note... Samer has again hidden his account from view now that it's shit the bed and back in red. What a legend.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #877
  • Edited 4:43am Nov 21, 2013 4:28am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Hows that bias now hotshot?
I remain biased. This is business and not crapshoot. Strangely enough, I have not taken on any positions. The position will load itself when ready. As I explained before, it's an active process.

You are too easily influenced by what has already happened, and not what will happen later. That's a typical black/red mentality. A real business man looks at what will be in demand ahead of time.

If you are that keen in taking notes of my trades, here's one for you: I am newly long in usd/chf. Feel free to jump up and down when it goes against me. I have no stop on it, and I currently prefer it to go against me.
  • #878
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:05am Nov 21, 2013 5:05am
I am currently under water with the GBP/USD experiment. let us see if it comes back!

-BeginnerJoe is just trying to get you guys thinking. He is no fool. If he printed out his method completely, How many of you would test it?

99%?
  • #879
  • Nov 21, 2013 5:44am Nov 21, 2013 5:44am
Quoting Rap Skallion
I am currently under water with the GBP/USD experiment. let us see if it comes back! -BeginnerJoe is just trying to get you guys thinking. He is no fool. If he printed out his method completely, How many of you would test it? 99%?
Maybe a stop would have saved you. I think too many shorters in gbp. They are not going drop the price until these shorters are shaken out. A big rally could do the trick.

All my pips so far came from my aud shots - eur/aud, eur/nzd.
  • #880
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:59am Nov 21, 2013 6:59am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Maybe a stop would have saved you. I think too many shorters in gbp. They are not going drop the price until these shorters are shaken out. A big rally could do the trick. All my pips so far came from my aud shots - eur/aud, eur/nzd.

A stop would have prevented me from coming back into profit, as I am now, with a 3/1 principle increase/ debt carried ratio. That is a two hour recovery.

that is not a test. The experiment continues.

I might be persuaded to find the stops needed to prevent margin call and implement them. How many pips am I away from margin call?

Thousands! Only another panic like in 2008 could get me there. (Gee, that was only 5 years ago...)

You could call those stop losses "Cash out and Quit" stop losses.

But they are supposed to be intended to rescue your account so you can go on trading, aren't they?
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