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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,341
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:15pm Nov 20, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Art, Would you believe I have now changed Data Providers and have never taken the few minutes to double check settings. My 2nd platform is Pepperstone and I had set that up using Phillip's Templates . This new chart is Axi Trader and I set this up manually without thinking about MA settings??? Thanks for asking the Question buddy - I will do a wee back tracking here & see if it has made a difference to my recent trades. BTW - I am not an MA expert at all and do as I am instructed when it comes to Indicators(LOL) Can you make...
Hi Binnie, Like you, I am not an expert either. What I do know about sma & ema is that sma is just a simple average of a set of numbers. Ema averages have more weight added to the more recent numbers. I am not sure of the reasoning for each uses, but Phillip uses them, so I will. I'm pretty sure his trading account is a lot larger than mine so far be it from me to make changes to a system that works. Also, thank you for posting so much. You and a few others are helping me to finally get my tradding act together. For the most part the problem lies between my ears and I am working vary hard at getting that right.
Trade well,
Art
  • #26,342
  • Nov 20, 2013 8:34pm Nov 20, 2013 8:34pm
Hi,

I want make a point here, you know it, but some don't. So there it is. It's about time frame.


There is a choice on your platform, you can choose different time period, ex: 1min, 5min , 15min, etc… but in reality it is a convention since when you buy a pair, your purchase doesn't go into a drawer . It goes hand in hand (no space between a purchase from another and yours) with the next order. Then that "data" is feed into your computer, into your program that divides by section (period of time) and already programmed to offer a variety of period of time.


Now, if you choose "1min" or monthly, the program can allowed only a certain physical space on the screen of your computer to be filled in order to be seen properly, always seeing the most recent data.


If it was possible to compress all the data, you would see the same up trend , you would draw trend line at the same place, you would see figure the same way, etc. There is one data and you can visualize it on different time frame, but it is the same data. I remember that sometime I forget about it and I shouldn't!


Since it is the same data:

I check the daily, weekly, monthly, the last to be seen is the 4hrs chart.

It is evident that on the daily I see more data, from the past up to now. From that, I want to see (RT, HS, etc…) even figures that are not completed yet, every thing that could influence the direction of the pair. Having that in mind, I have an "Anticipation" of what could more likely happens in the next future, I then have a perspective on the 4hrs charts and the possible direction the pair could take.



So if on the daily I see an HS and a weakness on the right shoulder, as example, the data on the 4hrs chart, covering the same time, I would assume that what I see on the 4hrs chart, those specific candles "are part of that weakness" and I could easily see a possible fall in price coming soon…

Same if I see someone in an arena, waving a red flag in front of a bull; I know what could be happening soon! Yes! I can easily "Anticipate" a bull charge!


As example the EURUSD,(see post 26293: I was expecting a weak right shoulder)

By seeing higher time frame:

I knew the pair after breaking the neckline would test or make a correction up to that line, but not only that. I knew that all that correction could be a weakness since the macd was quite below zero. I knew also that on the move away, I was expecting a long bearish bar…so I just have to wait for the start of the move away to add more positions,

Sure I watch the screen (not all the time) just to see things happening about the way I saw it by looking at higher time frame. One candle (daily): about 147 pips! I didn't make it all! That's part of the game too! Sometime I see it after! Too bad! I wasn't around, that's all! Sometime I could be wrong! (But I wish like anyone else to get them all!)


The 4hrs Macd Strategy gets kind like a mould with the candles, the Strategy is a partner:


P.S. "Don't leave home without it!"


Comments are welcome,
Yvon
  • #26,343
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:02pm Nov 20, 2013 11:02pm
Quoting binnie
@ TRADEMIN : Hey Yvon - your expectation for the Euro is now taking shape The Daily has severely been rejected by that lower T/Line previous Support now turned Resistance. Macd is also playing the right tune here too. BUT- question time for you?? If I was playing the Daily chart and wanted to enter at the close of this current candle , I would wait for the close below the 89 and take that nice TC from the Macd. Where would you place your expectation of movement.? Or better still can you explain for me how this setup might provide a signal...
"can you explain for me how this setup might provide a signal on the H4."

1.the pull back to channel was expected on the daily.- Or a correction that would end up at the lower TL
1a.-because the Macd was oversold and the candles correction would not bring macd higher than zero: which happened.-the move away makes the third RT
2.that expected daily pull back to test the lower TL channel and the move away, would certainly make a RT on the 4 hrs chart: which did happened later.
look at the chart on post 26293. I was expecting a weaker right shoulder.
that's the way I see it.
any comments welcome

I am expecting to send you a PM soon.
Yvon
  • #26,344
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:46am Nov 21, 2013 2:46am
Tonight's Trade

In the UJ and making good progress. Have moved to Break Even now +2 pips so its a free ride if it will take me along.
The Daily shows a very solid bullish move away as well and is backed up by a TC on the Macd at this stage. Not saying it will stay this way but gives me added confidence that Price wants to be taken higher.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_H4_21_Nov.png Size: 69 KB
  • #26,345
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:03am Nov 21, 2013 3:03am
Quoting binnie
Tonight's Trade In the UJ and making good progress. Have moved to Break Even now +2 pips so its a free ride if it will take me along. The Daily shows a very solid bullish move away as well and is backed up by a TC on the Macd at this stage. Not saying it will stay this way but gives me added confidence that Price wants to be taken higher. {image}
What does TC means?
  • #26,346
  • Nov 21, 2013 6:04am Nov 21, 2013 6:04am
Quoting trademin
...ecome a 37pips loss). And yet if I set my stop loss to break even after price has made a nice move towards my predicted direction, my trade could be stop out (during pull back) and then reverse again to move towards my predicted direction again. Thus what could have been a 23pips or 37 pips or 79pips gain could come to nothing. And I have seen this happening too many times, and get disappointed too often too discouraging me to continue with forex. Hope my write up is clear and understandable. Appreciate your replies and insight to this. Thanks{image}...
Hi, Hoping this will help you somehow, you took the trade while there is no sign. My view is that you took the trade too late, unless I have missed something(quite possible! :-)). on the chart I provide I show where your trade should have been taken. the SL would have been very small so you R/R very high. At that high, the momentum is noticeable. The time it would take to get back to zero would have provided nice profit already. (about 40 pips at the 99.80 aprox)-but don't forget that you trade against the trend. Choice then belongs to you to extend the profit from there. If you have problem with the pull back. You just have to close the trade right there at 99.80 for 40 pips profit! Then the rule says that price, after breaking the 21ema has the tendency to retrace then move away (making a TC at the same time!) then you just have to short it again! Which hasn't been done yet! Hope it helped you, Your comments are welcome. Yvon {image}[/quote]

Hi Yvon,

Thank you.

Ok my entry is at the blue vertical (at the close of that bar). At the MACD it was zero break (break through the zero MACD line), that where i made my decision to enter the trade. Is zero break not a signal to enter a trade? Please tell me if that is so for i must correct myself.

Yes, you have attached a good chart there. As for your explanation, I think you advice well reasoned out. After all, there is no right or wrong in forex trading. It is about probability ..... taking trades with high probability of making gain.

Another question, Ok you mentioned that the entry should be where the RT happened. But here we have 8 and 21ema which could be the barriers that could stop the price from going south. How should we further analyse this to decide whether to take the trade?

Thanks once again
  • #26,347
  • Edited 10:25am Nov 21, 2013 6:56am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Hi, Hoping this will help you somehow, you took the trade while there is no sign. My view is that you took the trade too late, unless I have missed something(quite possible! :-)). on the chart I provide I show where your trade should have been taken. the SL would have been very small so you R/R very high. At that high, the momentum is noticeable. The time it would take to get back to zero would have provided nice profit already. (about 40 pips at the 99.80 aprox)-but don't forget that you trade against the trend. Choice then belongs to...
Hi Yvon, Thank you. Ok my entry is at the blue vertical (at the close of that bar). At the MACD it was zero break (break through the zero MACD line), that where i made my decision to enter the trade. Is zero break not a signal to enter a trade? Please tell me if that is so for i must correct myself. Yes, you have attached a good chart there. As for your explanation, I think you advice well reasoned out. After all, there is no right or wrong in forex trading. It is about probability ..... taking trades with high probability of making gain. Another question, Ok you mentioned that the entry should be where the RT happened. But here we have 8 and 21ema which could be the barriers that could stop the price from going south. How should we further analyse this to decide whether to take the trade? Thanks once again[/quote]Hi, there is some answers to your questions,
have a nice reading,
comments are welcome,

----"Ok you mentioned that the entry should be where the RT happened. But here we have 8 and 21ema which could be the barriers that could stop the price from going south. How should we further analyse this to decide whether to take the trade? Thanks once again"

answer: No matter how high you throw a ball in the air, at the beginning the speed is high going up (candles riding on the 8ema), then ball slow down (going back to 21ema), then start slowly to fall back down(price stay close to the 21ema) then gets speed (price riding below the 8ema) then the ball go down to land on a support.(getting back above the 21ema). then the ball is trown up again...........the idea is to get involve when the ball start falling while the ball is very high in the air(while Macd is overbought!)

The Macd is a "Momentun" indicator. it helps visualize how high the ball is.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf NO TC THERE-1.pdf   63 KB | 454 downloads
Yvon
  • #26,348
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:13am Nov 21, 2013 7:13am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} What does TC means?
hi, TC means Trend Continuation. it means that you are trading wit the trend, which is the best.

whilwe RT means Round Top: you are trading "against" the trend.

there are more abreviations you can look at on page one: look for the PDF close to the bottom,

I'm glad you are doing well in your trade!
Yvon
  • #26,349
  • Edited 8:52am Nov 21, 2013 7:20am | Edited 8:52am
I am doing fine in USDJPY, AUDUSD: better, while eurusd, just made a pull back to the 89sma!- that one is pretty hard to get on his knees.


By The Way: I am a man, not a woman!
Yvon
  • #26,350
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:34am Nov 21, 2013 7:34am
Quoting binnie
Tonight's Trade In the UJ and making good progress. Have moved to Break Even now +2 pips so its a free ride if it will take me along. The Daily shows a very solid bullish move away as well and is backed up by a TC on the Macd at this stage. Not saying it will stay this way but gives me added confidence that Price wants to be taken higher. {image}

ya!
Yvon
  • #26,351
  • Edited 8:39am Nov 21, 2013 7:57am | Edited 8:39am
the AUDUSD getting better! just made a daily Head and Shoulder...Beautiful! ---already 200 pips down from the rejection (TC)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-d1-oanda-division1-i-like-the-most.png Size: 67 KB
Yvon
  • #26,352
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:19am Nov 21, 2013 8:19am
If dollar index keep climbing, all related currency could drop lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar-indx-d1-ava-financial-ltd-supporting-usd-cy-related.png Size: 69 KB
Yvon
  • #26,353
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:58am Nov 21, 2013 9:58am
Yvon what a great share,

It is like looking myself in the mirror when you say,

"Sure I watch the screen (not all the time) just to see things happening about the way I saw it by looking at higher time frame. One candle (daily): about 147 pips! I didn't make it all! That's part of the game too! Sometime I see it after! Too bad! I wasn't around, that's all! Sometime I could be wrong! (But I wish like anyone else to get them all!)"

And your insight about timeframe and momentum is something that I need to think about before jump into the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 170 KB
Own your own mind.
  • #26,354
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:28am Nov 21, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Arrow
Yvon what a great share, It is like looking myself in the mirror when you say, "Sure I watch the screen (not all the time) just to see things happening about the way I saw it by looking at higher time frame. One candle (daily): about 147 pips! I didn't make it all! That's part of the game too! Sometime I see it after! Too bad! I wasn't around, that's all! Sometime I could be wrong! (But I wish like anyone else to get them all!)" And your insight about timeframe and momentum is something that I need to think about before jump into the market. {image}...
thanks for the comments,
"we're all in this together!"
Yvon
  • #26,355
  • Edited 1:48pm Nov 21, 2013 12:31pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting Arrow
Yvon what a great share, It is like looking myself in the mirror when you say, "Sure I watch the screen (not all the time) just to see things happening about the way I saw it by looking at higher time frame. One candle (daily): about 147 pips! I didn't make it all! That's part of the game too! Sometime I see it after! Too bad! I wasn't around, that's all! Sometime I could be wrong! (But I wish like anyone else to get them all!)" And your insight about timeframe and momentum is something that I need to think about before jump into the market. {image}...
Hi ARROW,

your chart is getting me confuse. would you show me the BoZ on your chart. the BoZ means for me: Bounce off Zero, (sometime just go through Zero but pull back)
Thank you.

SAKA showed a nice BOZ example post 21901 it looks like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZAKA.png Size: 633 KB
Yvon
  • #26,356
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:40pm Nov 21, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting trademin
I am doing fine in USDJPY, AUDUSD: better, while eurusd, just made a pull back to the 89sma!- that one is pretty hard to get on his knees. By The Way: I am a man, not a woman!


Glad that's cleared up...i have edited posts before to make sure they are not gender specific..

I did not want to make any assumptions so used words like trademin/you/your I am sure never he/she/his/her..

But it was more fun thinking you were a female trading ninja... that's just my stupid man brain at work....

Doesn't matter, your help is tremendous and long may it continue..
  • #26,357
  • Edited 1:50pm Nov 21, 2013 1:22pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Glad that's cleared up...i have edited posts before to make sure they are not gender specific.. I did not want to make any assumptions so used words like trademin/you/your I am sure never he/she/his/her.. But it was more fun thinking you were a female trading ninja... that's just my stupid man brain at work.... Doesn't matter, your help is tremendous and long may it continue..
you are just a proof that the "the hunter" in us man, never quits!
Yvon
  • #26,358
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:17pm Nov 21, 2013 3:17pm
This is my first letter. I'm from Serbia do not speak English. Translation using Google translator so I apologize for any errors. For several months, I follow this strategy and I like what I found here. Significantly contributed to change my way of thinking about Forex. I hope to continue to actively participate in the forum.

Greetings from Nicholas

  • #26,359
  • Nov 21, 2013 4:22pm Nov 21, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting univerzalsm
This is my first letter. I'm from Serbia do not speak English. Translation using Google translator so I apologize for any errors. For several months, I follow this strategy and I like what I found here. Significantly contributed to change my way of thinking about Forex. I hope to continue to actively participate in the forum. Greetings from Nicholas
Greetings Nicholas - welcome to our home. We will enjoy seeing your charts .
Please ask questions & we will do our best to help. This is a thread where we all learn from each other.

Below is my attempt at your translation via Google - I hope it means well for you.



Поздрав Никола - добродошли у наш дом. Ми ћемо уживати виде своје графиконе.
Молимо вас да постављају питања и ми ћемо се потрудити да помогнемо. То је нит у којој сви учимо једни од других.

Pozdrav Nikola - dobrodošli u naš dom . Mi ćemo uživati vide svoje grafikone .
Molimo vas da postavljaju pitanja i mi ćemo se potruditi da pomognemo . To jenit u kojoj svi učimo jedni od drugih .
  • #26,360
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:46pm Nov 21, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting Fuiyong
Hi, I have a question here, something I struggle with for a long time. Referring to the chart on USDJPY - I am in this trade now (at the time of writing) and profit went to as much as 24pips and price is pulling back to 8 or 21ema at about now. Entry to Target 1 is about 37 pips (1:1 Stop loss : Target1) Entry to Target 2 (89sma) is about 79pips (another 42pips from Target1) According to 4hr MACD rule, price has the potential to go all the way to 89sma, which explains why I have Target 2. I am always in a dilemma when I trade something like this....
Hi Buddy - I see that Yvon has given his take on your question & I wanted to share my thoughts with you as well.
It will help us understand WHY you entered Short here if you can explain what you were seeing as your signal and what was the actual Trigger to get your entry. I know my charts differ to yours slightly but I am unable to see a possible short trade here.
What I do see is an upward T/Line and all Price Action taking part above the 89ma. To me this means the market mood is Bullish so my eyes will be looking for a retrace to stairway upwards ( 8 & 21 ) and then a move away with a bullish close candle past any possible resistance levels. There must be clear air (space) to move in.
Trades taken against the trend are needing much respect - Phillip will play these when he has a strong reason to enter and generally that would include playing away from a serious level of Support / Resistance/BRN/Solid Fib/Trendlines and only with an eye on targeting the 21ma. The Rythym does allow that Price will hunt out the 89 at some point but when we need to be satisfied with smaller profit targets as per Phillip and I need to check this myself but I recall he has a minimum R:R 1.5 / 1.0. I stand to be corrected f I am wrong

As I read your post over a few times, I get the feeling you are concerned more with seeing your winners turning to losers. ???
Mate - you are not the only one on this or any other trading thread who faces this issue. I am seeing your confidence in entering trades has advanced real good and now perhaps it is time to find that level where you are comfortable to take some profits out of a trade or set a stoploss to BreakEven or just terminate a position at any reasonable given point.
I can give you the exact example of what you are facing - it was that AU trade of mine . What you are talking about here is exactly what I did on this one.

Attachment

Personally, when I set a trade in motion & before the trigger candle closes , I like to mark out where possible trouble levels are and how far I have to play within these levels. They can be TLines / MA's / BRN or previous recent swings Hi or Lo.

Fuiyong - I hope this helps a little. Since Yvon's recent post on Timeframes, I think I may have had that LIGHTBULB we read about often. If you look at the Daily chart before setting a H4 trade setup, it will give you a heads - up on where price might be heading. For Example if the daily has just shown a nice strong TC on the Macd, the chances are good that we can expect price to head in that direction on the H4 Timeframe very soon after. ( the UJ trade was my insight to what Yvon was telling us

Good trading my friend - keep up your work .We will all succeed with each others help.
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