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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #3,901
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:37am Nov 20, 2013 1:37am
Lots of high impact announcements today and tomorrow. Moved all my stops and locked in a few pips. Now just got to hope .
  • #3,902
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:26am Nov 20, 2013 6:26am
Well? What do you reckon?
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  • #3,903
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:34am Nov 20, 2013 6:34am
Quoting jen101
Well? What do you reckon? {image}
This is what I'm seeing

Are you holding your positions through FOMC?
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  • #3,904
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:42am Nov 20, 2013 6:42am
On the weekly then . Waiting for the break.
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  • #3,905
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:46am Nov 20, 2013 6:46am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} This is what I'm seeing Are you holding your positions through FOMC? {image}
Tightened my stops.
  • #3,906
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:50am Nov 20, 2013 6:50am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Tightened my stops.
Be careful doing that, but good luck
  • #3,907
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:57am Nov 20, 2013 6:57am
Hi, I think with the release of the US existing home sales, traders could go for a put, but not too sure since am new to trading in forex, please what is the best advice for the USD at this time?
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  • #3,908
  • Nov 20, 2013 7:41am Nov 20, 2013 7:41am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Be careful doing that, but good luck
Bugger, all stops got hit. Still netted 90 pips though.
  • #3,909
  • Nov 20, 2013 9:08am Nov 20, 2013 9:08am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Bugger, all stops got hit. Still netted 90 pips though.
nevertheless good results.

;-)
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #3,910
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:28am Nov 22, 2013 12:28am
EURUSD at 1.3490 and fibo 50% retracement of Wednesday’s drop. We can also see triple top on M30 chart. 1.3491-95 seems like the best place to open short term short position, but also to make a first entry on longer term swing trade. If 1.3500 is defeated start looking about longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euusd priceseeker 22.11.2013-1.PNG Size: 41 KB
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,911
  • Nov 22, 2013 1:11am Nov 22, 2013 1:11am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Tightened my stops.
Hi,
What tools do you use in your analysis? I noticed candlestick patterns before, which on higher timeframes are interesting. I know they are full of sh... on lower TFs. Anything else?
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,912
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:50am Nov 22, 2013 5:50am
Quoting pipsane
{quote} Hi, What tools do you use in your analysis? I noticed candlestick patterns before, which on higher timeframes are interesting. I know they are full of sh... on lower TFs. Anything else?
Well, what you see on my charts is all I use. I like the daily and I find zooming out onto the weekly gives a nice clear picture. If I have the time then H1 I like for entry. Otherwise just go for it .

This has been an amazing few days. I had another pop at eurusd and eurcad (after the US good news which sent the dollar soaring on Weds) and cashed in .
Also cashed in on the aud diving on a few pairs. See above post 3092; it happened big time . I have decided now to risk 4% a trade with r:r 1:1 and stops/targets no more than 100 pips because shit happens and I'd like to get out before it does. If I did that earlier on in the week, I'd have banked a lot more. Anyway, 15% monthly target well exceeded now.
  • #3,913
  • Nov 22, 2013 11:59am Nov 22, 2013 11:59am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Well, what you see on my charts is all I use. I like the daily and I find zooming out onto the weekly gives a nice clear picture. If I have the time then H1 I like for entry. Otherwise just go for it . This has been an amazing few days. I had another pop at eurusd and eurcad (after the US good news which sent the dollar soaring on Weds) and cashed in . Also cashed in on the aud diving on a few pairs. See above post 3092; it happened big time . I have decided now to risk 4% a trade with r:r 1:1 and stops/targets no more than 100 pips...
4%/trade + RR 1:1 seems a bit wild to me, but hey if it works for you then kill it. I just wonder what are the results in a long run. My experience says you have to be more often right then wrong to succeed (law of big numbers). BTW overall even that we had big drop on Wed seems like we going higher for now. Maybe 1:1 up to 1.3650 - 1.3700. My shorts were well called for a day but overall your long view seems to be correct in a longer term.
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,914
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:56pm Nov 23, 2013 9:56pm
I'm fairly new at this, and I've been wondering if TA, and especially price action, is valid on the higher time frames. For example, on the following weekly snapshot of the USDJPY, there is a triangle/pennant shape and a recent breakout (on a nice bullish pinbar, no less) with a lot of upside. However, as I understand it, pennant = consolidation period (correct me if I'm wrong!). Can a consolidation period really last over 8-9 months as is the case here?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Zooming out further to the monthly, the breakout from the pennant should in theory move up by an amount equivalent to the open-ended width of the triangle, which would bring us back to a 2008 high and a globally strong R/S line @ 110.7. On the monthly chart it looks as if the price has a lot of room above to move into and is still freshly into its uptrend. However, can a R/S line dating back 5 years and more (showing strong resistance in 2004 and 2000) still be considered valid?

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Finally, zooming into the daily chart, we can see the actual post-breakout entry (the 2 circled pinbars showing rejection off the dynamic support). The price busted through the 1st resistance (100.5), and is now testing the 2nd (101.3/5). The real test, however, will be @ 103.4, which was a 4.5 years high and marked the beginning of our pennant.

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Comments/thoughts very welcome, I'm here to learn! Thanks
  • #3,915
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:54pm Nov 24, 2013 11:54pm
EURUSD after dramatic move down last Wednesday came back up quite fast as well. That strongly suggests desire to go higher. Levels to watch are:
1.3560 (50% retracement) – last week’s highs (up to 1.3575) – break of those will open the way towards 1.3650 – 1.3700.
1.3490 – break of this level to the downside may suggest further fall towards 1.3300.
Watch price action at 1.3520 to open long position. At 1.3560-75 zone look for shorts, but if that level will not hold look for long on retracement to this zone. Similar situation at 1.3490 – 1.3500. Look for long trades once price reaches this level. In case it gets defeated take shorts on retracement back to 1.3490.
Further updates once price reaches mentioned levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,916
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:38am Nov 25, 2013 3:38am
Quoting pipsane
{quote} 4%/trade + RR 1:1 seems a bit wild to me, but hey if it works for you then kill it. I just wonder what are the results in a long run. My experience says you have to be more often right then wrong to succeed (law of big numbers). BTW overall even that we had big drop on Wed seems like we going higher for now. Maybe 1:1 up to 1.3650 - 1.3700. My shorts were well called for a day but overall your long view seems to be correct in a longer term.
If you are profitable then % risk is pretty irrelevant. You can risk more on a small account or less on a bigger account; it's the same thing. If you are not profitable, then risking less just means you will die a slower death. I have tried a lot of R:R and have gone back to 1:1. Clearly your chances of failure increases the further away your target, but I don't believe it is linearly proportional to you R:R. I think your chance of failure is more likely exponentially higher the further away your target.

I have probably exhausted my setups last week. Nothing for me on the horizon this week.
  • #3,917
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:36am Nov 26, 2013 12:36am
Pattern shown on an upper image suggests EURUSD is ready to charge to the upside. Strong drop down without continuation, but rather quick come back to the tops, then a little pause (small correction) and charge again towards tops most of the time results in a strong move up (right side of that pattern has characteristics of aggressive cup and handle pattern). In a short term you should rather look for longs towards 1.3575 and further towards 1.3700. There is a chance for short term short position from 1.3575-80 with TP @ 1.3555. Rather then that look for longs (short term and longer term – swing trade) after break out above 1.3575. Short positions will be preffered below 1.3490 towards 1.3450, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,918
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:48am Nov 26, 2013 12:48am
Quoting jen101
{quote} If you are profitable then % risk is pretty irrelevant. You can risk more on a small account or less on a bigger account; it's the same thing. If you are not profitable, then risking less just means you will die a slower death. I have tried a lot of R:R and have gone back to 1:1. Clearly your chances of failure increases the further away your target, but I don't believe it is linearly proportional to you R:R. I think your chance of failure is more likely exponentially higher the further away your target. I have probably exhausted my setups...
It' interesting. I'm more probability and mathematics oriented and look for trade setups as a chance to make money with certain possibility, that is why I accept at least 1:1,5 RR but preffer 1:3 RR (depends on strategy). Agree with you about TP quick also, that's why in my short term strategy I take 20-25 pips profit. If it comes to swing trades I let position go especially with trend.
How long do you trade that way? It's important to me for the strategy to work at least for a year (depending on the market condition) so it's tested in variety of market situations. Cheers
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #3,919
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:57am Nov 26, 2013 3:57am
Quoting pipsane
{quote} It' interesting. I'm more probability and mathematics oriented and look for trade setups as a chance to make money with certain possibility, that is why I accept at least 1:1,5 RR but preffer 1:3 RR (depends on strategy). Agree with you about TP quick also, that's why in my short term strategy I take 20-25 pips profit. If it comes to swing trades I let position go especially with trend. How long do you trade that way? It's important to me for the strategy to work at least for a year (depending on the market condition) so it's tested in variety...
I haven't been trading that long, manually about 18 months. I have been profitable for most months this year, although I have tried a few things. I started off using 1:1 as anything less was unacceptable to me - I had to prove that I could do better than a coin flip and be able to see that easily. I then tried more, up to about 1:4 and found that my odds of getting to my target seemed to decrease exponentially! Of course, this is hard to quantify and I welcome anyone who could prove or disprove this.

We all have our strengths and weaknesses. As in other areas of life, mine is being able to see the bigger picture. I'm not that good on detail. So, the higher TF's suit me and really, the higher the TF, the bigger the SL needed, so with that comes a higher target. With a higher target you become more exposed to crap. To get out as quickly as possible that is acceptable to me means 1:1 R:R.
  • #3,920
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:07am Nov 26, 2013 4:07am
I see that AUD is continuing its downtrend this week, so having another pop I'll set BE before the announcements in a bit.
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