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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,321
  • Nov 18, 2013 1:10am Nov 18, 2013 1:10am
About the EURUSD:
On the H4 all the MA's are getting close together...what does this mean?



Already the 200 is flat and above the price while the 89 is targeting down directly at the price itself, while the 21ema is supporting the price! Conflicting situation! I would wait for a more clean view.

my point is that price will have the last word but the market shows technically that the last move up( since nov 7) is a correction up to where the price is standing about now, so price should get out of that situation by moving above the 89sma or falling below the 21 putting an end to that correction and would be an excellent place to take a short position. Or the price will confirm a move up by moving above the 89 and keep climbing.
Yvon
  • #26,322
  • Nov 18, 2013 1:21am Nov 18, 2013 1:21am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} I was only a lurker here for months/years and could see the thread had gone quiet, so it was mostly due to reading your posts with clear charts with your explanations / questions that made me want to start po
sting and asking questions, while putting my own analysis into practice for discussion. Any voluntary work is a huge commitment to ones life and is one of the most unselfish acts we can do, definitely unpaid but very rewarding for you and the people you help, well done... Enough gushing now hahaha welcome back.. When i read the thread...
Cheers Richard - good to be back all refreshed. Thanks for being active here. I know Yvon is keeping a watchful eye on us and he is always there to support us with answers to our many issues. To be honest, I actually feel like Phillip is quietly following us too so I guess if we start to stray too far off his teachings , he will soon let us know.

I do have 1 trade to show and even though its the UJ and I don't know a lot about that pair, I entered using the rules I have adopted. The Price Action and signals are the same whatever the pair so it is good practice for me and it allows me to search several charts for our set-ups. The chart shows I am still in since the 14th and the reason I have let this run on is because it is a free trade . The Stop is at +30 whatever happens.

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PS - Have closed this out manually at +40pips. Price now crashed thru the 8ma & pierced the BRN 100.00. Lower High on Mac d shows Bearish Divergence to the Higher Highs of price. This has been good practice for me using a refined MM . Still a lot of work to do in that area - trying to find what suits my style & personality.
  • #26,323
  • Nov 18, 2013 1:28am Nov 18, 2013 1:28am
Quoting trademin
About the EURUSD: On the H4 all the MA's are getting close together...what does this mean? Already the 200 is flat and above the price while the 89 is targeting down directly at the price itself, while the 21ema is supporting the price! Conflicting situation! I would wait for a more clean view. my point is that price will have the last word but the market shows technically that the last move up( since nov 7) is a correction up to where the price is standing about now, so price should get out of that situation by moving above the 89sma or falling...
Thank you my friend. I am pretty excited about my new task.
As for your comments here - I quite agree. Price will tell us what to do when it gets there - whichever direction that might be. Our job is to have the plans in place for all contingencies: go long / go short / sit on our hands
Great you are here to support us. We have much to learn....
  • #26,324
  • Nov 18, 2013 1:32am Nov 18, 2013 1:32am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Thank you my friend. I am pretty excited about my new task. As for your comments here - I quite agree. Price will tell us what to do when it gets there - whichever direction that might be. Our job is to have the plans in place for all contingencies: go long / go short / sit on our hands Great you are here to support us. We have much to learn....
nice trade Binnie!

take care tomorrow,
Yvon
  • #26,325
  • Nov 18, 2013 9:08pm Nov 18, 2013 9:08pm
Hi,

I have a question here, something I struggle with for a long time. Referring to the chart on USDJPY - I am in this trade now (at the time of writing) and profit went to as much as 24pips and price is pulling back to 8 or 21ema at about now.

Entry to Target 1 is about 37 pips (1:1 Stop loss : Target1)
Entry to Target 2 (89sma) is about 79pips (another 42pips from Target1)
According to 4hr MACD rule, price has the potential to go all the way to 89sma, which explains why I have Target 2.

I am always in a dilemma when I trade something like this. Because 79pips is a far way from 8 or 21ema so price will very likely pull back to it after making some move. In this case / particular trade price has move about 23pips away from 8 or 21ema. And in the next hour or so, price starts to pull back to 8 and 21ema again, which is the norm in the 4hr MACD rule. But there is also a high probability that price will continue to make its way to 89sma from some point or another (e.g. after pulling back t 8 or 21ema or even beyond). So we can never be certain how far price can pull back, it can pull beyond 8 or 21ema. And if it does that, I will most likely to stopped out.

So in trade like this one, what should I do to cut the losses (i mean I definitely don't what was initially was a 23pips gain to become a 37pips loss). And yet if I set my stop loss to break even after price has made a nice move towards my predicted direction, my trade could be stop out (during pull back) and then reverse again to move towards my predicted direction again. Thus what could have been a 23pips or 37 pips or 79pips gain could come to nothing. And I have seen this happening too many times, and get disappointed too often too discouraging me to continue with forex.

Hope my write up is clear and understandable. Appreciate your replies and insight to this.

Thanks
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  • #26,326
  • Edited Nov 19, 2013 5:47am Nov 18, 2013 10:21pm | Edited Nov 19, 2013 5:47am
...ecome a 37pips loss). And yet if I set my stop loss to break even after price has made a nice move towards my predicted direction, my trade could be stop out (during pull back) and then reverse again to move towards my predicted direction again. Thus what could have been a 23pips or 37 pips or 79pips gain could come to nothing. And I have seen this happening too many times, and get disappointed too often too discouraging me to continue with forex. Hope my write up is clear and understandable. Appreciate your replies and insight to this. Thanks{image}[/quote]Hi,

Hoping this will help you somehow,


you took the trade while there is no sign. My view is that you took the trade too late, unless I have missed something(quite possible! :-)). on the chart I provide I show where your trade should have been taken. the SL would have been very small so you R/R very high. At that high, the momentum is noticeable. The time it would take to get back to zero would have provided nice profit already. (about 40 pips at the 99.80 aprox)-but don't forget that you trade against the trend.

Choice then belongs to you to extend the profit from there.


If you have problem with the pull back. You just have to close the trade right there at 99.80 for 40 pips profit!


Then the rule says that price, after breaking the 21ema has the tendency to retrace then move away (making a TC at the same time!) then you just have to short it again! Which hasn't been done yet!


Hope it helped you,

Your comments are welcome.



Yvon
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Yvon
  • #26,327
  • Nov 19, 2013 2:16am Nov 19, 2013 2:16am
Quoting Fuiyong
Hi, I have a question here, something I struggle with for a long time. Referring to the chart on USDJPY - I am in this trade now (at the time of writing) and profit went to as much as 24pips and price is pulling back to 8 or 21ema at about now. Entry to Target 1 is about 37 pips (1:1 Stop loss : Target1) Entry to Target 2 (89sma) is about 79pips (another 42pips from Target1) According to 4hr MACD rule, price has the potential to go all the way to 89sma, which explains why I have Target 2. I am always in a dilemma when I trade something like this....

Brilliant question as this sort of thing happens to me...and great answer from Trademin with screenshots...i love those Q & A's...

I have noticed that on your screen upload your macd bars are the same colour (white)

Trademins are green/red...

Fuiyong - How do you know when the macd is giving a clear signal with the change of colour of the bars.... that the turnover of the 2nd RT had happened.

Only my simple observation...the change of colour macd is on the first page

Hope this helps
  • #26,328
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:40pm Nov 19, 2013 1:40pm
AU setting up for some action ??

Hi guys - just heading out but saw this one that got my attention for next candle close. Would like to see a close below the 8 to give me a bit more confidence and then will look for a minor run back to the 21 at least for some small pips
What do you guys think about the setup ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good response to FY's question by the way. I hope to re-read this tonite & will offer my 2cents
  • #26,329
  • Edited 5:36pm Nov 19, 2013 1:59pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting binnie
AU setting up for some action ?? Hi guys - just heading out but saw this one that got my attention for next candle close. Would like to see a close below the 8 to give me a bit more confidence and then will look for a minor run back to the 21 at least for some small pips What do you guys think about the setup ? {image} Good response to FY's question by the way. I hope to re-read this tonite & will offer my 2cents
The set up for a move down: I agree! (on the 4 hrs chart) divergence and tails showing a possible move down...

now take a look at the daily chart: same direction possible!

EDIT: looks like the price moved up instead of down!- I am wrong ! daily still has a possibility down but fading!
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Yvon
  • #26,330
  • Nov 20, 2013 1:23am Nov 20, 2013 1:23am
AUSSIE PROGRESS :

Price has found the 21 as support and now waiting to see where this takes me. As Yvon said - the Daily is showing possible weakness and this might just assist my H4 plans

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  • #26,331
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:32am Nov 20, 2013 2:32am
Hi All,

This thread has hugely been a success for some of us. Thanks to Phillip. during the course of being mentored by Phillip himself i received other strategy and tools that i have been using together with the 4Hr MACD Strategy that will get you more trades from the 1hr to the 1 min. If you are interested in this strategy i will be obliged to share with for a token.

Just PM me.

May the pips be with you.
"Flow with the market rhythm and the pips will come to you."
  • #26,332
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:47am Nov 20, 2013 2:47am
Quoting Price Motion
Hi All, This thread has hugely been a success for some of us. Thanks to Phillip. during the course of being mentored by Phillip himself i received other strategy and tools that i have been using together with the 4Hr MACD Strategy that will get you more trades from the 1hr to the 1 min. If you are interested in this strategy i will be obliged to share with for a token. Just PM me. May the pips be with you.
Greetings - Please correct me if I am wrong but are you offering to SELL some of what Phillip & others have taught us here over the last 26000 odd posts. Not sure I agree with this if that is your intention. Everything on this thread has been given FREELY by Phillip and if you are wanting to get some followers for yourself, I humbly suggest you create another thread somewhere else.
If I have mis-understood you , I apolo​gise.
  • #26,333
  • Nov 20, 2013 6:39am Nov 20, 2013 6:39am
Hi Binnie, my name is Art. I was wondering why you used sma for the 8 & 21 instead of the usual ema in your A/U post 26328 & 330. I was trying to see why my chart did not look similar to what you had that appears to be the case. I also compared Trademin's daily, post 26329 as well as mine. Have you found an advantage using the sma format?
Thanks,
Art
  • #26,334
  • Edited 11:48am Nov 20, 2013 11:24am | Edited 11:48am
the EURCAD still has the same opportunity: since the daily chart is still having a divergence in the Shoulder, price could go very lower.
In the 4 hrs chart: will it hold? if the 365 doesn't hold possible targets lay ahead.

sure the EURUSD is having about the same opportunity.
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Yvon
  • #26,335
  • Nov 20, 2013 11:53am Nov 20, 2013 11:53am
Quoting binnie
AU setting up for some action ?? Hi guys - just heading out but saw this one that got my attention for next candle close. Would like to see a close below the 8 to give me a bit more confidence and then will look for a minor run back to the 21 at least for some small pips What do you guys think about the setup ? {image} Good response to FY's question by the way. I hope to re-read this tonite & will offer my 2cents
if you still have open position, you are doing fine!
Yvon
  • #26,336
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:14pm Nov 20, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting trademin
the EURCAD still has the same opportunity: since the daily chart is still having a divergence in the Shoulder, price could go very lower. In the 4 hrs chart: will it hold? if the 365 doesn't hold possible targets lay ahead. sure the EURUSD is having about the same opportunity. {image} {image} {image}
Good Morning Yvon,
Wow -that was a strong bear move . You are correct about the 365. Phillip generally refers to the 200 & 365 more as targets rather than Support & Resistance but if you see what happened last time price hit that area, you can guess that a similar reaction might happen - at least slow things down a bit. But if the 365 cannot hold, there is the possible stroll down to that recent low area.
For me, I will wait for price to pullback to the 89 or 21 levels and then see if the Macd can help pull things down further with some sort of Rythym Signal .
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  • #26,337
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:24pm Nov 20, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Spitfire
Hi Binnie, my name is Art. I was wondering why you used sma for the 8 & 21 instead of the usual ema in your A/U post 26328 & 330. I was trying to see why my chart did not look similar to what you had that appears to be the case. I also compared Trademin's daily, post 26329 as well as mine. Have you found an advantage using the sma format? Thanks, Art
Hi Art,
Would you believe I have now changed Data Providers and have never taken the few minutes to double check settings. My 2nd platform is Pepperstone and I had set that up using Phillip's Templates . This new chart is Axi Trader and I set this up manually without thinking about MA settings???
Thanks for asking the Question buddy - I will do a wee back tracking here & see if it has made a difference to my recent trades.
BTW - I am not an MA expert at all and do as I am instructed when it comes to Indicators(LOL)
Can you make a comment to help me out here ? What is the most significant settings to be used?
Cheers
Binnie
  • #26,338
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:35pm Nov 20, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Good Morning Yvon, Wow -that was a strong bear move . You are correct about the 365. Phillip generally refers to the 200 & 365 more as targets rather than Support & Resistance but if you see what happened last time price hit that area, you can guess that a similar reaction might happen - at least slow things down a bit. But if the 365 cannot hold, there is the possible stroll down to that recent low area. For me, I will wait for price to pullback to the 89 or 21 levels and then see if the Macd can help pull things down further with some...

Yes I have to be carefull! "...with some sort of Rythym Signal " is totally appropriate! but technically if it breaks down, it will be noticeable!
Yvon
  • #26,339
  • Nov 20, 2013 12:38pm Nov 20, 2013 12:38pm
@ TRADEMIN :

Hey Yvon - your expectation for the Euro is now taking shape
The Daily has severely been rejected by that lower T/Line previous Support now turned Resistance. Macd is also playing the right tune here too.
BUT- question time for you??
If I was playing the Daily chart and wanted to enter at the close of this current candle , I would wait for the close below the 89
and take that nice TC from the Macd. Where would you place your expectation of movement.?
Or better still can you explain for me how this setup might provide a signal on the H4.
I have never used the Daily like you do and am really interested in earning what you see.
Thanks my friend - appreciate your comments as always.

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  • #26,340
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:34pm Nov 20, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting binnie
@ TRADEMIN : Hey Yvon - your expectation for the Euro is now taking shape The Daily has severely been rejected by that lower T/Line previous Support now turned Resistance. Macd is also playing the right tune here too. BUT- question time for you?? If I was playing the Daily chart and wanted to enter at the close of this current candle , I would wait for the close below the 89 and take that nice TC from the Macd. Where would you place your expectation of movement.? Or better still can you explain for me how this setup might provide a signal...

"The Daily has severely been rejected by that lower T/Line previous Support now turned Resistance. Macd is also playing the right tune here too.
BUT- question time for you??"
hi,
I do not have much time now, I have to leave very soon, I'll get back to you asap
(look at dollar index: nice set up too)
do you see(Anticipation) the weakness(daily) in the coming right shoulder?, so the right shoulder is also an RT,so a RT is under construction.
also: the pair just reject the channel this is why it has a big move here, same as a rejection of a HS, it could tend to reach the same range that it has just left! ...just maybe, will see!
should be back to you soon,
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Yvon
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