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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #581
  • Nov 15, 2013 12:25pm Nov 15, 2013 12:25pm
Two examples. Holding a long position in gold and another one in AUD. I did close already the ones of EU and CH because I was late for a short term position. I stopped the intra-day trading, too much stress, too many positions, few pips to win, few real opportunities. Per month, any asset may give 2 or 3 good chances for short or middle term positions, Why look for trades every day where there aren't any good one. It is better to wait for those good ones, Right?
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Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #582
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:03pm Nov 15, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting FxRetro
Two examples. Holding a long position in gold and another one in AUD. I did close already the ones of EU and CH because I was late for a short term position. I stopped the intra-day trading, too much stress, too many positions, few pips to win, few real opportunities. Per month, any asset may give 2 or 3 good chances for short or middle term positions, Why look for trades every day where there aren't any good one. It is better to wait for those good ones, Right? {image} {image}

FX Retro
Nice to see you post old friend.
I agree with you on longer term trading.I am officially a position trader that is my trades can last as long as it needs to be to reach targets.Usually it takes more then intraday.
I think GA is good opportunity to short.With positive swap you can add more if goes higher.Its a solid longer term trade.With nice positive swap you can earn while waiting.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #583
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:06pm Nov 15, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting bryn077
I see, thanks...I would not really like to live in the UK, I am more of a tropics and Mediterranean guy. But it would be nice to spend some time in London and have London/New York to trade...all day long. Nice on the percentages. I knew you would probably not be selling the UJ. I decided to TP at 99.3...what I did not like about the set-up was this. The UJ has been constricting on the daily and what I sold was the breakout of the upper trend-line...so I knew there might be more bullish strength behind the move...which there is. So, I think I made...

There is a reason why I don't like shorting the Yen.Its the weakest currency and it can climb 100pips in 4hrs any day, anytime.
My trading plan says NO YEN
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #584
  • Nov 16, 2013 12:50pm Nov 16, 2013 12:50pm
Chart on UC daily
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #585
  • Nov 16, 2013 6:43pm Nov 16, 2013 6:43pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There is a reason why I don't like shorting the Yen.Its the weakest currency and it can climb 100pips in 4hrs any day, anytime. My trading plan says NO YEN Regards

Yeah...you have a good point point, I understand. But we are contrarian right ? to some degree ?

Also, I know you are not too sure of the supply/demand indicator...but here are some sell levels I am looking at on the UJ...all up above the 786 zone.

The ascending triangle indicates accumulation but I will still look for shorts, particularly at the upper level.
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  • #586
  • Nov 16, 2013 7:11pm Nov 16, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There is a reason why I don't like shorting the Yen.Its the weakest currency and it can climb 100pips in 4hrs any day, anytime. My trading plan says NO YEN Regards

you should long yen pairs my friend
  • #587
  • Nov 16, 2013 7:32pm Nov 16, 2013 7:32pm
Yeah...thanks whatfx. You'll see that my chart has an up arrow as well...either way.
  • #588
  • Nov 17, 2013 9:32am Nov 17, 2013 9:32am
The first two trading rules Livermore had listed in his secret diaries:
“Basic Rule:—Before pulling the trigger on a trade place as many factors
in your favor as possible.” Livermore felt that success was achieved when
all the basic factors were in his favor, and he concluded that the more factors
he could think of the more successful he would be.
The next rule was this: “No trader can or should play the market all
the time. There will be many times when you should be out of the market,
sitting in cash waiting patiently for the perfect trade.”

I've been posting this article on numerous times and its interesting how Livermore was aware of it decades ego.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #589
  • Edited 10:56am Nov 17, 2013 10:43am | Edited 10:56am
Out of all indicators 2 I find most interesting BB Bands and RSI
So just playing around
3 BB bands
1 SD
2 SD
3SD all close price.
RSI 14 default
Notice when RSI goes 70 and BB bands hit 3SD price is more likely to reverse.Key area of interest between 3rd BB (black) and 2nd BB (orange)Look at my daily chart.Comments welcome!
Since this is confluence trading I have always been attracted to Andrews pitch forks generally because theory is based upon the fact that price gravitates to mean average.
To me BB 3 standard deviation represent extreme point where price wants to go back to mean average.Anyway still thinking about lot of things...
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #590
  • Edited 11:26am Nov 17, 2013 11:06am | Edited 11:26am
Another example for longs
So I'll be interested to see Price Action once GU goes in 3rd deviation and RSI hits 70
But looking at daily price has rarely hit 3rd SD which tells me GU despite of its movements has been in a range on less extremes.
On daily RSI is just above 50 and not reached 70 and Price is not inside orange BB
So I kind of anticipate 1.62 to be hit and either break above or reverse down.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #591
  • Nov 17, 2013 11:34am Nov 17, 2013 11:34am
Deleted 1st BB 1 deviation since its useless to me and clutters the chart.
Just 2nd and 3rd SD
In fact I feel lot better about my GA shorts
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #592
  • Nov 17, 2013 11:55am Nov 17, 2013 11:55am
on EC and many other pairs same.Price most likely to reverse on 3rd BB deviation.
I might of stumbled on "holly Grail"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #593
  • Nov 17, 2013 11:59am Nov 17, 2013 11:59am
Quoting Davit
on EC and many other pairs same.Price most likely to reverse on 3rd BB deviation. I might of stumbled on "holly Grail" {image}
How does EURAUD look for the week ahead I would check myself but I'm not near a computer for a couple of days
  • #594
  • Nov 17, 2013 12:10pm Nov 17, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} How does EURAUD look for the week ahead I would check myself but I'm not near a computer for a couple of days

Sure
Weekly at 1.42 sopport

Possible Trade Short at 1.46 zone
To me you should wait until higher up to short.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #595
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:03pm Nov 17, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Sure Weekly at 1.42 sopport Possible Trade Short at 1.46 zone To me you should wait until higher up to short. {image} {image}
I'm already short at 1.4470 to about 80 pips in the green as of now aiming for just above the weekly support level but what I'm thinking is what if the bollinger bands start to angle down bringing with it our 3sd to possibly 1.45 it'd be interesting to see the system in real time

Thank you for your input
  • #596
  • Nov 17, 2013 1:43pm Nov 17, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} I'm already short at 1.4470 to about 80 pips in the green as of now aiming for just above the weekly support level but what I'm thinking is what if the bollinger bands start to angle down bringing with it our 3sd to possibly 1.45 it'd be interesting to see the system in real time Thank you for your input

I am fascinated by this.
I'll be looking for shorting opportunity from 1.45 up
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #597
  • Nov 17, 2013 11:27pm Nov 17, 2013 11:27pm
1.1180 limit buy A/N
another 70pips south to be "in the zone"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #598
  • Nov 18, 2013 10:35am Nov 18, 2013 10:35am
Quoting Davit
The first two trading rules Livermore had listed in his secret diaries: “Basic Rule:—Before pulling the trigger on a trade place as many factors in your favor as possible.” Livermore felt that success was achieved when all the basic factors were in his favor, and he concluded that the more factors he could think of the more successful he would be. The next rule was this: “No trader can or should play the market all the time. There will be many times when you should be out of the market, sitting in cash waiting patiently for the perfect trade.” I've...
I get it Davit, thanks...I am not going to jump right into those UJ trades...I just follow the UJ quite a bit... And what is interesting to me...from a technical outlook and something I have seen before, is this. There is a bit of an accumulation pattern forming, that ascending triangle, right below a large supply level. I could see price breaking long right into that upper level and then crashing. Yen rate decision is weds.

I think I will finally get around to reading this article...:nerd:
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  • #599
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:26pm Nov 18, 2013 2:26pm
Davit you like to play a lot with different stuff :-p... ok, closed the Long position for AU/US on sunday night (EST Time) and kept around 60 pips. Today monday reached and bounce down from a Sup level. For Gold, I kept around 2000 pips in two positions (like 1000 each), also rebound down from some levels and didn't reach a higher high. So, now just waiting the reaction on the levels I draw. This week is full of FOMC conference talks. Let's see how is it going.
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Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
  • #600
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:39pm Nov 18, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} FX Retro Nice to see you post old friend. I agree with you on longer term trading.I am officially a position trader that is my trades can last as long as it needs to be to reach targets.Usually it takes more then intraday. I think GA is good opportunity to short.With positive swap you can add more if goes higher.Its a solid longer term trade.With nice positive swap you can earn while waiting. Regards {image}
Because the FX market is moving so slow lately, it is better let the trades to run and not play intra-day. However, we can trade something like Gold for less than 24 hours if we want. For example: If we would have shorting Gold at 9am (Est time, I was sleeping T_T) until 2pm to 3pm today 11-18-13, we would have gotten like 1100 pips. If we can make such amount of pips in a few hours I think it is worth it to make intra-day, under this condition. What I would never ever trade intra-day are currencies, that is for short-middle term (swing trading in few words).
Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
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