DislikedNow put a fly in the ointment. Supposing the coin was not fair? Supposing that if you tossed it twenty times it consistently came out eleven heads to nine tails instead of ten heads to ten tails?Ignored
- #702
- Nov 16, 2013 3:34pm Nov 16, 2013 3:34pm
- Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Trends, Levels, Confirmation, Bayes | 1,834 Posts
Build good relationships with others.
{quote} I don't read books. But I am guessing this must be the origins of the random walk theory ? I don't know where I got that term from, but probably from google. The market does a lot random walking. However, it also does a lot of deliberate walking. Generally, when the market sees free money lying on the ground and the market isn't too distracted or too busy with something, the market will invariably walk deliberately towards the free money and pick it up. In quiet moments, when the market has nothing better to do, it will go from one free...
Why should a dealer hunt stop orders when he makes his money right when you enter? Because he makes his money when you enter - and he tries to get you to enter as many trades as much as possible. Notice how in general the spread "spreads" just after the news event? Yes, he has a hard time getting to execute your order otherwise, but does that mean he won't want to make more money doing it? Hmm.
Stop losses too close to the market price mean free money.
Say you use a stop loss at a distance, to try to avoid them hunting your stop. If you see the price action make a trace that looks like a falling rock, why wait until it hits your Stop?
On the other hand the trace looks like an airplane pulling out of a dive, why let it hit your stop and then reverse?
If you watch your charts, on whatever time frame you do this, you will see these traces. it can go up like a powerful jet plane in an almost vertical ascent. Do't get in its way.
Or it can creep up slowly like an old biplane heavily laden. Barring some news event pushing things around, (OR all the boys from frankfurt suddenly getting the word That U.S. Steel wants to buy up a few billion euros. Things like that do happen), You could give this beast a little room to go back down to your sell.
Ever notice in general how when a price moves down it moves faster than when it moves up?
Take a look at your charts and see if this is true or not.
- #704
- Nov 16, 2013 4:18pm Nov 16, 2013 4:18pm
- | Additional Username | Joined Mar 2012 | 2,539 Posts
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
{quote} I don't think that's true. For forex, prices move up as quickly as it moves down. Nor do I believe brokers/dealers hunt stops. Unless they are a bucketshop who run their own prices, then why not ? There are these bucketshops in the UK who are allowed to make their own prices, and their prices often contain more spikes than normal market prices. The typical broker is quite content to just take their commission cut on the spread. The market don't run stops either. The market (aka the bank taking the other side of your trade) simply buys low...
Yeah, you are probably right. After I wrote that post, I took a look at my history over the past 3 months, counting the buy trades closed vs. the sell trades. I was surpised. Although I sell two pairs and buy only one, my successful buys equaled the successful sells. That's in spite of the two to one possible ratio.
I put that on the list of factors I can safely ignore,like the idea of gauging market sentiment by the number of buyers vs. sellers kept by FF. I found no significant improvement by following those ratios than a system of fixed bias based upon, among other things, the monthly charts of "my" pairs.
Soo... I have found another pair to correlate with the EUR/USD: I sell the euro, so I buy the GBP/USD (when conditions indicate) there is a significant positive correlation between the two charts, and I am interested to see if buying this pair produces similar results as buying the AUD/USD.
(What's that? You are buying the Aussie? - Yes, I have made more money on that pair than any other! Even now!)
One factor I do pay attention to. I never go against the swap.
If you look at the same monthly charts I have (except the GBP) The largest swing of price with the swap is better than twice the swing of price against.
Yes , you are talking about thousands of pips in a swing, and your debt management had best be good enough to handle them. But what good is a fixed stop loss 3,4 thousand pips away from current market price?
This is why my reluctance to play the GBP card: the swing against the swap is fully as much as the swing for it. (Some 6600 pips...) That is different enough to possibly require a more stringent strategy..
I value your postings. They are profitable to me and help me think more clearly. So it is quite selfish of me to wish you to prosper. That way you can keep posting, and I can keep the benefits of your posts.
- #708
- Nov 18, 2013 10:08pm Nov 18, 2013 10:08pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
hi
as i am a trader does not use the stop loss , i am obliged to show my results that i was posting last week and the progress too.
again, here is my results form FF.
i will not post more details , just to say, i do not use stop loss as per this thread headline, and my system is still operating in same full conditions.
thank you and bye bye.
as i am a trader does not use the stop loss , i am obliged to show my results that i was posting last week and the progress too.
again, here is my results form FF.
i will not post more details , just to say, i do not use stop loss as per this thread headline, and my system is still operating in same full conditions.
thank you and bye bye.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #709
- Nov 18, 2013 10:45pm Nov 18, 2013 10:45pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
and here is the report for MT4 reporting system.
however, in my personal opinion, no stop loss is a good approach if you have a strategy helps you to avoid this action.
however, in my personal opinion, no stop loss is a good approach if you have a strategy helps you to avoid this action.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #710
- Nov 18, 2013 11:45pm Nov 18, 2013 11:45pm
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
and here is the report for MT4 reporting system. however, in my personal opinion, no stop loss is a good approach if you have a strategy helps you to avoid this action. {image}
Don't get me wrong, but closed losses alone do not show the real drawdown. And, of course your closed drawdown is very low! You refuse to close for a loss
Real draw down = closed+floating losses.
Something that is fully captured by myfxbook account stats, opposed to FF trade explorer stats that does Enron style accounting (sadly it only counts closed losses as drawdown). Anyway, if floating losses were taken into account as they should, one could easily see after ~1500 trades your account is @ ~break even. Floating (open) losses mean you are exposed to risk (sure you can make a profit on those, but it's not guaranteed, larger losses are perfectly possible). Summing it up, your account is about break even when open losses are properly taken into account, and you are loaded with risk. So ask yourself the question: do you really think you are doing well? Unfortunately, I think the only one running to the bank is your broker
The day will come when that nasty habit of not taking a loss timely will cost you dearly and clearly. So far it has only costed you time, lots of time. Time is the most precious commodity in my eyes. Somehow you don't seem to value time the way I do: You waste it.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #711
- Nov 19, 2013 12:11am Nov 19, 2013 12:11am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
{quote} Samer, Don't get me wrong, but closed losses alone do not show the real drawdown. And, of course your closed drawdown is very low! You refuse to close for a loss
i have sold from the highest Resistance, and i have bought from the bottom support for the last 3 to 5 years.
if the price breaking this top or this bottom , then i am in danger, but as the price has tried many time to cross these two set points, and it could not so it is meaning i am safe and even if it is crossing, the big players will not allow it it move more in that direction, this will defect their profits, so, always the carry trade to sell from top of the highest point for sell +ve swap and to buy from the bottom when the swap of long is +ve
these are the major concepts in forex.
all on all, i thank you for sharing me your fears of losing my account , and we are still on line to post the results and my account is open in FF for your study.
once more thank you
samer
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #712
- Nov 19, 2013 12:26am Nov 19, 2013 12:26am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
{quote} Samer, Don't get me wrong, but closed losses alone do not show the real drawdown. And, of course your closed drawdown is very low! You refuse to close for a loss
some people like to see the indi in thier dwgs, and charts, so to make you understand my method, here is a charts showing the system by inid s
i hope this is enough to explain my system + the 40% of your account to save the stop loss and swap will give you daily profit and support.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #713
- Nov 19, 2013 12:58am Nov 19, 2013 12:58am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #714
- Nov 19, 2013 1:09am Nov 19, 2013 1:09am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #715
- Nov 19, 2013 1:50am Nov 19, 2013 1:50am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #716
- Nov 19, 2013 2:52am Nov 19, 2013 2:52am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
{quote} Samer, I might be completely wrong here, but that sounded as if you intended selling something? Are you selling something?
I AM A SMALL TRADER TRYING TO LEARN LIKE YOU.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
- #718
- Nov 19, 2013 2:58am Nov 19, 2013 2:58am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
{quote} Stops get hit cause the market acts like PAC MAN period...thatīs also the reason why almost everyone looses...and all the people attacking this no stop thread, are obviously not being too successfull with stops, otherwise why bother! Hedging is trading, provided you know how to use it...in the best case, you might end up closing both (long and short) with a profit...
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #719
- Nov 19, 2013 3:43am Nov 19, 2013 3:43am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,392 Posts
{quote} Using stops is trading, provided you know how to use it
NOT Using stops is trading, provided you know how to use it
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
