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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,741
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:18am Nov 15, 2013 1:18am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Like I said, I was playing this one really tight. Out on the 4H bar close above the blue PPZ. This one's a half bar loss. {image} g.
We bounced right off the HHR and price eventually closed back under the PPZ. Today's bar is holding at the same PPZ now. Brilliant price action!

I am tempted to re-enter but given a Friday and the FTA pretty close I'd rather sit this one out.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,742
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:19am Nov 15, 2013 1:19am
Watching this one closely.

If we get a close below the HHR without a "runaway" then the marked FTA is right in business.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,743
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:36am Nov 15, 2013 1:36am
Quoting ghous
{quote} We bounced right off the HHR and price eventually closed back under the PPZ. Today's bar is holding at the same PPZ now. Brilliant price action! I am tempted to re-enter but given a Friday and the FTA pretty close I'd rather sit this one out. {image} g.
I am still in it as yesterday due to our beloved gov there were no cellular network or wingle network in my area so couldn't close
  • #128,744
  • Nov 15, 2013 1:41am Nov 15, 2013 1:41am
Ghous what's your views on this trade
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  • #128,745
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:10am Nov 15, 2013 2:10am
Quoting zohaib
{quote} I am still in it as yesterday due to our beloved gov there were no cellular network or wingle network in my area so couldn't close
Wwhoops! Do have a DSL backup bro. When this goes down due to an electricity outage then you have your usb device and when the government cuts on it you have your dsl as a backup. You cant let forseeable factors interfere with your trade management while plan for all contingencies up front. Lack of access to the markets can be costly AND UGLY. Glad it worked in your favor this time though.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,746
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:13am Nov 15, 2013 2:13am
Quoting zohaib
Ghous what's your views on this trade {image}
This trade is based off what?

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,747
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:50am Nov 15, 2013 2:50am
Quoting ghous
{quote} This trade is based off what? g.
This entry was based on Pin bar on top with higher area rejected before and after pb and 1st of which with highest volume which in my view shows sellers coming in or off course profit taking . But still in learning phase so correction will be appreciated.
  • #128,748
  • Nov 15, 2013 4:14am Nov 15, 2013 4:14am
Quoting zohaib
{quote} This entry was based on Pin bar on top with higher area rejected before and after pb and 1st of which with highest volume which in my view shows sellers coming in or off course profit taking . But still in learning phase so correction will be appreciated.
Ahh I see.

That's a small ant pushing a wall.

Good to see you spotting your bearish pin bars at swing highs, but do bear in mind that a bearish pin bar at a swing high means shorting into an up trend. That can either make you look like a hero or totally awkward. Strong, big and bold pin bars at great locations are just about as good as you can get at predicting tops and bottoms. If you relax the rules to include iffy pin bars such as that small one on EUR/NOK then it changes the dynamics big time. The "counter trend" monster then jumps out at you as clearly you're banking on very limited information and that coupled with going against the flow is not very conducive to consistent gains.

In this case too, price just seems to have broken out of a wedge/consolidation. Taking a small bearish pin bar into this bullish story is in a strong way like merely "hoping". I see that you're not in this for a complete reversal but for the pull back game to those consolidation highs but honestly going with the bigger flow for bigger gains in line with the bigger story is always safer, more reliable and less stressful.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,749
  • Nov 15, 2013 4:22am Nov 15, 2013 4:22am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Ahh I see. That's a small ant pushing a wall. Good to see you spotting your bearish pin bars at swing highs, but do bear in mind that a bearish pin bar at a swing high means shorting into an up trend. That can either make you look like a hero or totally awkward. Strong, big and bold pin bars at great locations are just about as good as you can get at predicting tops and bottoms. If you relax the rules to include iffy pin bars such as that small one on EUR/NOK then it changes the dynamics big time. The "counter trend" monster then jumps out...
Got it and right i was missing the bigger picture of wedge breakout. I will be more careful next time and now out of the trade with what I already got.
appreciate your explanation
  • #128,750
  • Nov 15, 2013 6:27am Nov 15, 2013 6:27am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hello raitchev, I'm watching this one since price is at a nice PPV. The "2day pb" doesn't really go anywhere. It closes below the 0.93865 which has good history to the left of weekly/daily. If price moves up it has some traffic to get through. I like a break below since there is a lot more space for price to move. I guess Mike's pickiness is rubbing off on me. Just not enough for me to pull the trigger at this point. {image}{image}
I'm actually short on this pair since 24th of October. I'm also waiting whether this area holds or not.
So far I'm betting for break as there is some traffic above and it's with longer term trend.
As you pointed out there is lot of space below and I might even move my TP closer to 0.9000 if it breaks nicely.
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  • #128,751
  • Nov 15, 2013 8:41am Nov 15, 2013 8:41am
Quoting michal7
{quote} I'm actually short on this pair since 24th of October. I'm also waiting whether this area holds or not. So far I'm betting for break as there is some traffic above and it's with longer term trend. As you pointed out there is lot of space below and I might even move my TP closer to 0.9000 if it breaks nicely. {image}
Awesome trade M
  • #128,752
  • Nov 15, 2013 8:48am Nov 15, 2013 8:48am
Quoting michal7
{quote} I'm actually short on this pair since 24th of October. I'm also waiting whether this area holds or not. So far I'm betting for break as there is some traffic above and it's with longer term trend. As you pointed out there is lot of space below and I might even move my TP closer to 0.9000 if it breaks nicely. {image}
It's sure nice to be in such a great position. Well-done!
  • #128,753
  • Nov 15, 2013 8:51am Nov 15, 2013 8:51am
Quoting ghous
{quote} We bounced right off the HHR and price eventually closed back under the PPZ.
I am holding this trade as the SL above the fake out bar is still intact. But still no momentum. Let us see in the coming days.
  • #128,754
  • Nov 15, 2013 12:32pm Nov 15, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Ahh I see. That's a small ant pushing a wall. Good to see you spotting your bearish pin bars at swing highs, but do bear in mind that a bearish pin bar at a swing high means shorting into an up trend. That can either make you look like a hero or totally awkward. Strong, big and bold pin bars at great locations are just about as good as you can get at predicting tops and bottoms. If you relax the rules to include iffy pin bars such as that small one on EUR/NOK then it changes the dynamics big time. The "counter trend" monster then jumps out...


Good analysis Ghous. But... what about what is forming on the Weekly chart?
  • #128,755
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:23pm Nov 15, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting Jomi
Good analysis Ghous. But... what about what is forming on the Weekly chart?
Jomi, i'm not Ghous but let me give it a shot. On the weekly chart i see a PB with a lot of traffic to the down side for which sets me up to agree with a bullish story on this one for now.

Al.
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  • #128,756
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:59pm Nov 15, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Awesome trade M
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} It's sure nice to be in such a great position. Well-done!
Thanks Mike and Winston. This is actually first trade after few weeks which I haven't screwed up.
I learned a lot in the past few weeks. I was around FF since end of 2008 and found james16 stuff second half of 2009. Most of the time since then I was actually not trading as I was busy at jobs, changing jobs, got married, son born etc. So I was on and off the trading and with exception of year of 2010 I was not really focusing. This has changed lately. I read Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques from Steve Nision and watched his Forex DVD set. I've also revisited james16 material.
Then I backtested 24 pairs almost 4 years back(since january 2010), with simple trading rules:
1, I have simple black and white candlestick chart with 200SMA
2, I marked BRNs on each chart every 500 pips (except EURGBP where it's each 100 pips), I used grid indicator for this
3, I enter trade when I found very good Pin bar, BEOB/BUOB or DBHLC, DBLHC at PRIME LOCATION, that is major S/R or BRN wheter it's new high/low or retest of recently broken level
4, Entry 10%(of bar's height) above/below bar's high/low for long/short.
5, SL 10%(of bar's height) below/above bar's low/hight for long/short.
6, Go BE when price reaches 1R (BE might be also little bit profit or little bit loss- depending on nearest logical level)
7, Take profit at 2R or nearest logical level

Results are:
1, Average yearly RRR per pair is 3,07 (with 24 pairs that's 73,68R, that means if I risk e.g. 100 euros per trade I'd make 7368 euros per year)
2, On average there is 4.27 trades per month
3, 23% of trades were BE (or around BE), 29% of trades were losers and 48% of trades were winners

This exercise gave me a lot:
1, Confidence that pure price action trading works
2, Confidence that I'm able to recoginze good setups
3, Knowledge that pair might be very profitable one year and not profitable other year
4, Knowledge that with some pairs one has to be more picky
5, Confidence in my rules and that they work well over time

This is probably nothing new for experienced people here.
I would suggest to everyone who is new or not profitable yet to do this excercise, it will help you tremendously.
  • #128,757
  • Nov 15, 2013 4:22pm Nov 15, 2013 4:22pm
aee on weekly.
nice w-formation. this weeks candle took out the low of the previous bar lows and closed little above.
could rally above next week.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #128,758
  • Nov 15, 2013 5:51pm Nov 15, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting darko40
Regards, what do you think of this pair?{image}
Hi Darko,

With the Audjpy pair, If you go down to 4Hr TF you will find a wedge pattern forming with divergence. I have keeping a tab on this pair.
I was tempted to enter long on the retrace after the the break out. The pair did give us a 4Hr pin bar that touched on the upper wedge area that now has become support. But I passed it as it's Friday. Price did make itself up to almost the 94.00 Rn. Just my 2 cents. I'm sure the other guys will have a more rounded view of it.
  • #128,759
  • Nov 15, 2013 6:15pm Nov 15, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting michal7
{quote} I'm actually short on this pair since 24th of October. I'm also waiting whether this area holds or not. So far I'm betting for break as there is some traffic above and it's with longer term trend. As you pointed out there is lot of space below and I might even move my TP closer to 0.9000 if it breaks nicely. {image}
Awesome trade indeed mate. I actually took that short too, but booked most of the profit quite early... props for the patience! However, we are at a major PPZ now so be careful. As people always stress... it is not an exact line, but more of a zone. In this particular case 9228 to 9300.
So I find it quite logical, and PPZ and price action have gave me a confirmation, to have a retest of the 9500 level before we head down or whatever. So my current TP is shy from 9500.

Of course, if we get any nice price action off 9500 indication continuation of the bearish move I will gladly join you in your bearish trade. But for now I am looking for a little rise.
Anyways, your stop is above 9500, so following my logic we both can be winners
Have a great weekend!
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Twitter @raitchev
  • #128,760
  • Nov 15, 2013 6:24pm Nov 15, 2013 6:24pm
EURUSD looking interesting. PPZ at the 1.35000.
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