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High Probability Trade Setups

  • #61
  • Nov 13, 2013 3:19am Nov 13, 2013 3:19am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hey Intrepid. Cheers. The Tick chart is a download and I can't remember where I got it from. It's called "iTick" search online and try youtube too. If you can't find it PM me and I will try to dig it up for you. It is unfortunately an offline chart so I'm not sure about running EA's on it. Though if you manage to get one going let me know how you did it

Thanks mate
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #62
  • Nov 13, 2013 3:29am Nov 13, 2013 3:29am
Quoting Redddz
{quote} its a nice setup but it can get down for another retest but as per cad index i will be willing to take this long trade on the level you mentioned and also check this as this is valid trade for me now http://screencast.com/t/5XmeEsjGg {image}
It looks good, probably best to have a pretty large stop loss -- probably way under that daily candle I highlighted in my previous post
  • #63
  • Nov 13, 2013 3:40am Nov 13, 2013 3:40am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} It looks good, probably best to have a pretty large stop loss -- probably way under that daily candle I highlighted in my previous post
i took this trade already as i mentioned earlier on the link, which complies my setup!
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #64
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:07am Nov 13, 2013 4:07am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} I'm all mixed up now saw the H4 RD but the Stoch is already pointing south again, but then H1 too is showing RD which may have run it's course because it seems the Support turned resistance held; but I'm in, short not risking the R2R mm on this one cos of the uncertainty of news release
Stopped out at -26 pips, live to trade another set-up!
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #65
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:57am Nov 13, 2013 4:57am
I recovered my loss plus some

Recently i've been trying to tame the M1 time frame and it's promising.
After my M30 bet loss I went down to M1 and took another bet based on Divergence and ended up raking in a profit.
Now with the R2R mm rules if I had taken a loss with my first trade my second trade would have been at the risk of half my balance and TP of twice my risk.
I merely risked the same amount as the 1st trade since I did not risk the R2R risk model, in fact Mu SL was just 8 pips and I could not say how far price could go so i did not set a TP. I bailed out after the spike.
Just to let you see that Divergence Rocks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #66
  • Nov 13, 2013 4:58am Nov 13, 2013 4:58am
Quoting Intrepidpips
I recovered my loss plus some Recently i've been trying to tame the M1 time frame and it's promising. After my M30 bet loss I went down to M1 and took another bet based on Divergence and ended up raking in a profit. Now with the R2R mm rules if I had taken a loss with my first trade my second trade would have been at the risk of half my balance and TP of twice my risk. I merely risked the same amount as the 1st trade since I did not risk the R2R risk model, in fact Mu SL was just 8 pips and I could not say how far price could go so i did not set...
I missed out selling at 1.6
  • #67
  • Nov 13, 2013 5:02am Nov 13, 2013 5:02am
Quoting Redddz
{quote} i took this trade already as i mentioned earlier on the link, which complies my setup!
Ah, I seen you was short, did you also go long?
  • #68
  • Nov 13, 2013 5:19am Nov 13, 2013 5:19am
I think that if you want to find the best high probabilities you have to trade only one pair...2 max. And just look at it over and over again.

By looking consistantly at EURUSD, if you open a m5 chart you can see 2 or 3 setups with 30/35 pips gain and less than 15 pips stop.
I agree about the fact that when you look at past PA it's easy to find, and harder realtime

I'll try to post some

Right now nothing good on the euro, it can shoot 15 pips or down at this stage
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #69
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:45am Nov 13, 2013 6:45am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Ah, I seen you was short, did you also go long?
yes im long and it was the old sell limit but never got filled.
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #70
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:46am Nov 13, 2013 6:46am
Hey Kuro. I appreciate reading your posts in the eurusd thread. I think your strategy is similar to mine (except your better at it than I am )
I trade a fair bit of eurusd but I'm not sure I could do the 2:1 especially on a 5 min considering the noise of the TF.

So far 1st trade usdcad isn't exactly 'springing to action'. I prob should have closed at B.E. by now and begun to search for a new entry point but have been in this boat before and found my initial analysis to be correct despite all the noise in between (and I'm curious). Time will tell, though I didn't enjoy that little spike up before missing my SL by 1 pip including spread.

Demo trade taken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #71
  • Nov 13, 2013 8:08am Nov 13, 2013 8:08am
AudUsd.... tell me about your bias & preference on this pair....

I am long @ 0.9300 with SL 0.9265. Support on daily charting with big RN 0.9300. Untested supply at 0.9450-70, double bottom on h1 charting, yeah not so perfect but can be considered for small stop of 35 pips. Risk to Reward is very generous for this attempt.

;-)
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Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #72
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:46am Nov 13, 2013 10:46am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} yah probably right. live and learn My entries have never been fantastic. I tend to jump in a few pips further out than I like but I have found if I wait for the full bo bar to be drawn my SL can be too far away from major resistance and hence gets knocked out. it's the danger of playing with scalping sizes at larger tf bo's. Not to mention getting caught in false bo's which is what may have happen here. Not liking it. EU and AU bo in opposite direction ...trade against me n u might win
This is the scenario I was talking about in the quoted post. If I had of entered upon B.O. my Sl would be in the zone that could be knocked out by a pull back bar. It means reading the trade a bit early and some stressful hours before hand but in the end pays off. I don't know how many trades I have closed during the noise in between and scratched my head later when the trade reaches this point. I still do it and have done it twice trading this system. I just need to be braver
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #73
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:59am Nov 13, 2013 10:59am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Watch out for 9706, both daily and 4hour buy levels line up to-the-pip. {image}
Yes that is a great spot to watch out for..I'm thinking maybe it'll just chop around for a bit

and continue it's move south setting up a scenario for some heavy selling about to take place.... Let's see...

Quoting Redddz
{quote} hey owl, this is how i see this set up on cadjpy http://screencast.com/t/fXRwzX2EXx
I have to admit that looks to be a valid entry point and a good signal if or when price gets up there... For now

it's stalling in a range perhaps later the asian session will move it....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #74
  • Nov 13, 2013 11:15am Nov 13, 2013 11:15am
Its been a strange day for pa to me. I actually sat the entire day out aside from this trade. I am glad I did. EU is on a roller coaster ride as is AU, UJ is in a an expanding wedgy looking thingy. I prob would of lost money cos most of yesterdays set ups look really ragged now. only real one I'm upset missing is the eurjpy, oh-well caught up with some good films instead
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #75
  • Nov 13, 2013 11:19am Nov 13, 2013 11:19am
Quoting Matts Micro
Its been a strange day for pa to me. I actually sat the entire day out aside from this trade. I am glad I did. EU is on a roller coaster ride as is AU, UJ is in a an expanding wedgy looking thingy. I prob would of lost money cos most of yesterdays set ups look really ragged now. only real one I'm upset missing is the eurjpy, oh-well caught up with some good films instead
EU is too unpredictable lately, I'm sticking to Yen pairs for the time being.
  • #76
  • Edited 11:48am Nov 13, 2013 11:22am | Edited 11:48am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting MaxDoom
Hi Matt, here is a potential EURGBP opportunity {image}
Hey Max did you catch the call you gave out earlier it looks like the move started around the

third bubble although there was a few unexpected gaps before the move and in the middle of the

move all in all it was a good call and qualified for a high probability trade entry....

Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} yah probably right.
We all enter the market a bit premature sometimes...heck who really knows when the real move

is being made besides the big banks? I don't think even the retail brokers know when it's going to really

happen maybe the institutional brokers but not the retail..but anyways the move we was looking out for

has started my 20.00 lot sell stop was triggered and I closed it for some profit and re entered with 8 lots

there's probably some push left in it for the rest of this session and then maybe london is when we will see

the real drop....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadh1.png Size: 146 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #77
  • Edited 11:51am Nov 13, 2013 11:41am | Edited 11:51am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting FxSaint
AudUsd.... tell me about your bias & preference on this pair.... I am long @ 0.9300 with SL 0.9265. Support on daily charting with big RN 0.9300. Untested supply at 0.9450-70, double bottom on h1 charting,
The 4hr money flow index looks to agree with a nice move up.. the 18 period MFI on a 4hr chart

which is the last 80 hours of the currency pair money movement doesn't reach oversold or overbought

levels to much so whenever it comes out there is sure to follow convergence to confirm the direction and

since in this case it is coming up and out of the oversold level there should be some room for some movement

upwards now whether it's just a retrace or trend changer we will see in time but for now it looks like a good

chance price should reach or at least get near the level you are gauging....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd4hr.png Size: 75 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #78
  • Nov 13, 2013 11:46am Nov 13, 2013 11:46am
Quoting Owl
{quote} Hey Max did you catch the call you gave out earlier it looks like the move started around the third bubble although there was a few unexpected gaps before the move and in the middle of the move all in all it was a good call and qualified for a high probability trade entry.... {quote} We all enter the market a bit premature sometimes...heck who really knows when the real move is being made besides the big banks? I don't think even the retail brokers know when it's going to really happen maybe the institutional brokers but not the...
nice wd.

1st step of R2R done on demo. $50 to $102... only about another 9 steps to go . If I get a few rungs up I will post it either on explorer or Mfxbook.

I will start looking for another setup tomorrow. time to get back to my movie

Edit: wd to your win, didn't show all the quote
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #79
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:16pm Nov 13, 2013 12:16pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} nice wd. 1st step of R2R done on demo. $50 to $102... only about another 9 steps to go .
Way to go!!!.....keep going brother!!!....


Quoting Matts Micro
Its been a strange day for pa to me. I actually sat the entire day out aside from this trade. I am glad I did. EU is on a roller coaster ride as is AU, UJ is in a an expanding wedgy looking thingy.
Not sure how comfortable you are with the more exotic currency pairs but it's good to gauge them too

if you have enough experience because the aud/cad isn't the only exotic that has great runs and setups

the gbp/nzd is another example of when it's not chopping around it moves fast and probably leans more

in our favor in what we are looking for which are high percentage entries with a nice RR attached so we can

enter the appropriate lots to gain an above average return and it's times like these when the majors are acting

up and looking funny that we can examine the exotic crosses to suit our trading appetite because we can do one of

three things when the pair we usually trade isn't giving us a signal we can stop trading for the day,wait throughout

the day for a signal to arrive or we can gauge other pairs to see if there is a signal there and the one thing you'll learn

about most pairs between the majors and exotics is that they all universally respect and conform to certain PA patterns

that once you know what to look for in one pair it should be apparent and appear there bright as day in another pair from

the bars it may look a little different but you'll recognize and know it when you see it so don't be hesitant to broaden your

arsenal with the amount of financial instruments you are willing to trade on but all in all this is only for seasoned traders

once you know how to read the forex market you can trade any currency pair you want basically the high spread doesn't

matter when you have a pair that has the potential to move 100 pips in 1-3 hours!!..just think about it maybe it can pay

off huge for you maybe not? who knows? only you will.! once you try it!! ...
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #80
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:59pm Nov 13, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Owl
{quote} Way to go!!!.....keep going brother!!!.... {quote} Not sure how comfortable you are with the more exotic currency pairs but it's good to gauge them too ...
Thanks for this owl it's appreciated. I totally get what your saying and agree. I have just managed to get my trading into control over the past 8-10 months or so and started making some real money... (finally!). I am at the stage where I can spot and take my trades with trade management and doing ok, though still on odd occasions make swift decisions that hurt. The main problem I am tackling atm though is keeping up-to-date with marked charts waiting for trades to be filled. Don't know how many times I've clicked on a chart and found an old setup where pa has moved in my favour and 10-40 of wasted pips staring at me in the face. Its a real forehead slapper. I average at least one missed trade a day. I've pen and paper at the ready and even bought a 1meter long whiteboard to get a system going though still haven't quite worked out the routine yet.

Extra charts. Hmm. I think I will get a few more monitors. I have 2 going but I am going to buy another computer soon. (dam laptop blue screened to death as well )

When I sort out this situation I totally intend to start flipping more charts. During the weekend I will make an action plan and work on it from there.

Seems like a trivial problem but I am missing serious profit because of it.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
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