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High Probability Trade Setups

  • #21
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:51pm Nov 11, 2013 11:51pm
Random coin toss probability have 50% win ratio but can not apply that in trading with tight SL like 15 pips there is lot of SL hunt in 15 pips SL
  • #22
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:54pm Nov 11, 2013 11:54pm
why dont you use martingale if you have more than 50% win ratio ?
  • #23
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:36am Nov 12, 2013 12:36am
Hi Matt,

here is a potential EURGBP opportunity
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP-sbH1 2013 Nov 12 A.png Size: 17 KB
  • #24
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:02am Nov 12, 2013 1:02am
Hey Max. Thanks for the chart, muchly appreciated.

I have a question. I noticed the GBP CPI is due in the next half hour, would you recommend these levels once the news is dealt?

I have to admit here that my fundamentals aren't the greatest so I tend to side line and deal with the mopping up
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #25
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:17am Nov 12, 2013 1:17am
Quoting Matts Micro
Hey Max. Thanks for the chart, muchly appreciated. I have a question. I noticed the GBP CPI is due in the next half hour, would you recommend these levels once the news is dealt? I have to admit here that my fundamentals aren't the greatest so I tend to side line and deal with the mopping up
depends on the normal volatility caused by the news item, in this case it wouldn't really stop me, but you know 9 out of ten you will find that the entry aligns with news which is why you get the classic scenario of Fundi people saying the price is Fundi driven and the TA saying it is technical driven. chicken and egg I guess.

I am personally more interested to see what indications the PA gives me in the bubble to justify an entry.
  • #26
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:27am Nov 12, 2013 1:27am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} depends on the normal volatility caused by the news item, in this case it wouldn't really stop me, but you know 9 out of ten you will find that the entry aligns with news which is why you get the classic scenario of Fundi people saying the price is Fundi driven and the TA saying it is technical driven. chicken and egg I guess. I am personally more interested to see what indications the PA gives me in the bubble to justify an entry.
heh yes. Im a TA'ist n I believe it is the crystal ball to the future. Will be following PA closely. I can relate your levels to S/R zones on my chart.

Thanks again for time.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #27
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:40am Nov 12, 2013 5:40am
Quoting FX_James
why dont you use martingale if you have more than 50% win ratio ?
Hi sorry missed this post before.

If your trading is like a coin toss then I'd suggest you save the dollars and open a long term savings bank account.

To understand completely how the MM system works you should probably read http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=444377

The MM doesn't necessarily have to be 30pip TP 15 SL but could be 100pip TP 50 SL.

With risking 50% of your capital your are able to go back and try again unlike a martingale system that depletes an account with one SL.
eg $1000-50%=$500
$500-50%=$250 etc.

GL
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #28
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:16am Nov 12, 2013 7:16am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting FX_James
why dont you use martingale if you have more than 50% win ratio ?

Quoting FX_James
Random coin toss probability have 50% win ratio but can not apply that in trading with tight SL like 15 pips there is lot of SL hunt in 15 pips SL
Really? dude?....seriously?!!!...smh....shame on you!!
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #29
  • Nov 12, 2013 7:23am Nov 12, 2013 7:23am
Quoting Owl
{quote} {quote} Really? dude?....seriously?!!!...smh....shame on you!!
let me know your consecutive wins ?
  • #30
  • Nov 12, 2013 8:16am Nov 12, 2013 8:16am
Quoting FX_James
{quote} let me know your consecutive wins ?
It is true 2:1 is difficult. It is why I made this thread in the first place. It isn't so hard to find trades that can be taken with a 2:1 ratio. What it's really about is not taking the other trades in between.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #31
  • Nov 12, 2013 8:37am Nov 12, 2013 8:37am
This is my random entry testing 34% win ratio there was 10 consecutive loss 3 times between 195 trades, this is perfect example martingale system never works in the random trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 21 KB
  • #32
  • Edited 9:31am Nov 12, 2013 9:20am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting FX_James
This is my random entry testing 34% win ratio there was 10 consecutive loss 3 times between 195 trades, this is perfect example martingale system never works in the random trading {image}
Hi. I'm not sure exactly what your talking about. I'm sorry if I'm missing something here but I haven't come across this before.

1. Random entry testing?
Does it flip a coin like you were talking about earlier to enter a trade? Because if it is you do know that all traders time their entries on analysis of the market?

2.You keep talking about martingale
This is not a martingale system it has a win:loss R:R of 2:1. So if you have $100 in your account you risk $50 to make $100. That means if you win you will have $200. If you lose $50. Then lose again $25. Then lose again $12.50. Then lose again $6.25. Then lose again $3.12 Of course if you lose too many times consecutively on any system you account will be depleted. If you lose that many times you need to go back to step 1 and look at entry of trades (on top all other trade management).

Edit: The MM side of it is just a cast off of the Rags to Riches thread where the link has been posted a couple of times. But 2:1 with a $100 account can just as easily be risk $30 to make $60.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #33
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:47am Nov 12, 2013 9:47am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting FX_James
{quote} let me know your consecutive wins ?

Here we have a thread about high probability setups and trading and then the guy comes

in talking about flipping a coin?!!!...Perhaps you didn't realize we're here seeking trade setups

that have a 80-90 percent accuracy condition (if such thing exists). A random coin toss will not

suffice in and with the criteria we seek....
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #34
  • Edited 10:21am Nov 12, 2013 9:51am | Edited 10:21am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting FX_James
This is my random entry testing 34% win ratio there was 10 consecutive loss 3 times between 195 trades, this is perfect example martingale system never works in the random trading {image}

so you done gone off the edge and lost all your marbles on us have you,now!!!? This has nothing to do with this thread whatsoever

please try harder to understand what is being asked of this thread and if it's too hard to comprehend just move on and stick

with your own particular method we have no use for this kind of material here because it can't help us in what we seek which is high

probability trading entries and conditions... don't go rogue on us and be or become a rogue trader follow the rules and instructions of

what the thread asks from us and you and everything else will be all right....capiche?
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #35
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:00am Nov 12, 2013 10:00am
Quoting Owl
Yes Matt I 'm with you on this type of trading check this chart out Aud/Cad just pierced it's 40 day average which the 4 hr chart shows... .97500 should provide the next closest support and on the 30m chart it shows how price bounced off 11/3 weekly low and kept going south how much further it goes? who knows but it should be a good one.... {image} {image}
Hey Owl. do you still have any of those shorts still open?

Nice call
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #36
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:17am Nov 12, 2013 10:17am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hey Owl. do you still have any of those shorts still open? Nice call
Thanks Matt Yes sir I should've put more pending orders on the swing low last night because I sleep

during london and I usually place pending order in the direction I want and like for it to go but yes I

still do got my 4 sell trades in and I just placed a pending order under the tail of the last low..Price

did indeed pierce .97500 although it's come back to around that area now... I felt good all along about

this setup because price has broke retested and kept going on off it's weekly low along with the 40 day

average... Here they are though: 1st trade: 62 pips, 2nd: 49, 3rd: 36, 4th:28 comes to a total of 175

pips off a 62 pip run so far....let's see how much more it can go....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcadm30.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audcadh4.png Size: 81 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #37
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:43am Nov 12, 2013 10:43am
Quoting Owl
{quote} Thanks Matt Yes sir I should've put more pending orders on the swing low last night because I sleep during london and I usually place pending order in the direction I want and like for it to go but yes I still do got my 4 sell trades in and I just placed a pending order under the tail of the last low..Price did indeed pierce .97500 although it's come back to around that area now... I felt good all along about this setup because price has broke retested and kept going on off it's weekly low along with the 40 day average... Here they are though:...
Very nice sweep, looks like it's your next shout at the bar (I mean buy us drinks not scream at it)

I must have passed over this pair a few times but it's definitely not one of major currencies I use. Going back over the history I can't believe how much it trends. It may have something to do with the correlation of our countries commodities (Aussie here) especially minerals. But anyway fundamentals not my strong suit. I will be studying this pair more closely from here forwards.

Do you have an exit strategy or just pa?
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #38
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:56am Nov 12, 2013 10:56am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Very nice sweep, looks like it's your next shout at the bar (I mean buy us drinks not scream at it) I must have passed over this pair a few times but it's definitely not one of major currencies I use. Going back over the history I can't believe how much it trends. It may have something to do with the correlation of our countries commodities (Aussie here) especially minerals. But anyway fundamentals not my strong suit. I will be studying this pair more closely from here forwards. Do you have an exit strategy or just pa?
Yes Aud/Cad is like my girl!!!! I like the way it moves so much.....

Seriously though it is a great pair to trade because of

the moves it makes although I'm not quite sure why it's

so liquid...and yes I gauge pure PA to determine

exit
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #39
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:13am Nov 12, 2013 11:13am
Quoting Owl
{quote} Yes Aud/Cad is like my girl!!!! I like the way it moves so much..... Seriously though it is a great pair to trade because of the moves it makes although I'm not quite sure why it's so liquid...and yes I gauge pure PA to determine exit
Nice. Keep those charts coming it's appreciated.

I will reanalyse the charts tomorrow morning (today? only 3am atm) but usdcad and usdjpy are starting to look interesting and eurjpy is still on the cards.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #40
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:23am Nov 12, 2013 11:23am
Quoting MaxDoom
Hi Matt, here is a potential EURGBP opportunity {image}
Hi MaxDoom,

After CPI y/y price went up to 0.8437 (3rd bubble) and keeps going higher. bearing in mind more 'red' news for GBP do you expect price to bounce?
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